Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 31 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          19   42  +19       5.55    82.20     2.72    78.83     5.78    36.73    26.26    55.76    76.09    88.77    99.09     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         19   41  +33      -0.56    44.37     6.39    81.53     5.44    58.77    51.52    77.15    90.04    96.06    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          19   40  +16       3.64    73.03    -0.59    76.00     5.90    31.39    13.05    33.95    57.94    77.07    97.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          19   37  +13       4.95    79.26     4.41    68.45     6.01    21.03     1.22     5.02    13.18    27.32    76.08     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        19   36  +21       0.61    53.41     5.47    72.35     6.03    37.27     5.18    17.01    35.47    57.69    91.14     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          19   34  +10      -2.58    32.70    -6.66    70.91     5.78    27.90     2.64    10.31    24.29    44.81    87.25     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        19   34   -2       4.28    75.83    -6.97    63.06     6.03     2.26     0.12     0.69     2.50     6.67    34.26     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        19   33   +5       7.14    87.75     6.37    58.09     5.99     2.57     0.01     0.11     0.45     1.43    12.04     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      19   27   +6       1.60    61.08     7.94    52.82     6.11     5.15     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.17     3.10     0.11R    0.01  
Hull             19   23   -1       2.39    66.73     8.18    42.85     5.87   -10.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     7.00R    1.00  
Swansea          19   21   -1      -3.24    30.05     2.34    45.87     5.86    -3.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     2.34R    0.25  
Stoke            19   21  -11       0.16    51.94    -2.77    42.22     5.76   -18.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.06R    1.30  
Aston_Villa      19   20   -7      -1.63    40.18     0.38    41.40     5.76   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    11.15R    1.92  
Norwich          19   19  -16      -0.84    45.33    -4.67    38.19     5.69   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    27.45R    6.79  
West_Brom        19   18   -5      -5.90    15.96    -0.63    42.41     6.00    -8.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.47R    1.37  
Cardiff          19   18  -15      -0.09    50.88    -2.30    36.07     5.51   -29.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.04R   12.19  
Crystal_Palace   19   16  -16       0.19    53.22     1.42    31.91     5.38   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.78R   35.89  
Fulham           19   16  -22      -3.69    27.04   -10.45    36.47     5.71   -33.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.02R   11.91  
West_Ham         19   15  -10      -6.94    11.64    -3.01    36.56     5.77   -17.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.55R    9.69  
Sunderland       19   14  -17      -5.75    16.34    -7.57    34.59     5.58   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.02R   17.68  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, Barnsley 1 2 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       23   48  +14       8.95    90.02     2.58    86.59     6.90    24.69    44.83    67.82    96.93    75.46P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           23   44  +19       7.08    83.83    10.76    81.23     6.96    27.91    17.80    38.84    88.25    50.55P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         23   44  +17       7.23    85.09     9.12    81.19     6.90    25.42    17.00    37.66    88.16    50.68P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             23   43  +11       5.53    78.72     2.42    80.81     6.87    20.07    14.55    33.65    86.19    48.85P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   23   39  +10       4.17    72.33     4.96    73.37     6.88    14.37     2.25     7.52    51.32    17.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         23   35   +9       2.95    66.68     8.02    67.43     6.91    10.43     0.34     1.51    21.31     5.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    23   35   +8       2.17    62.34     5.98    68.33     6.98    10.75     0.49     2.06    25.34     6.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton        23   35   +7      -0.94    44.61     0.40    71.22     6.79    14.03     1.12     4.33    39.55    13.74P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         23   34   +2      -1.36    42.58    -3.81    69.86     7.14     8.61     0.83     3.16    32.24    10.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       23   32   -2      -0.24    49.07    -3.18    63.90     6.81    -1.25     0.07     0.33     8.90     2.22P    0.14R    0.00  
Huddersfield    23   31   +5       0.76    55.01     6.72    60.82     6.76     2.58     0.02     0.10     4.29     0.84P    0.50R    0.01  
Blackburn       23   31   +1      -1.58    41.52    -0.71    63.02     6.88     1.98     0.06     0.27     7.53     1.81P    0.24R    0.01  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.08    19.50    -1.15    65.76     7.00    12.35     0.22     0.89    16.32     5.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Wigan           22   30   +1      -4.27    27.05    -5.11    66.99     7.26     7.38     0.38     1.49    19.97     6.73P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   23   29   +5      -3.58    30.80     3.36    61.09     6.97     5.82     0.01     0.15     5.18     1.21P    0.58R    0.02  
Bournemouth     23   29  -10       3.75    71.49     0.54    53.68     6.85   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.05P    6.91R    0.52  
Birmingham      23   28   +1      -5.17    23.11    -1.49    61.44     6.90     4.06     0.03     0.16     5.30     1.43P    0.44R    0.02  
Bolton          23   26   -5      -6.46    17.80    -6.42    58.92     6.97    -2.85     0.00     0.05     2.53     0.69P    1.26R    0.06  
Charlton        23   23   -8      -6.75    16.20    -5.75    52.36     6.75   -10.81     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.07P    8.36R    0.72  
Millwall        23   22  -21      -2.29    37.66    -9.85    46.81     6.61   -31.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.95R    5.14  
Doncaster       23   21  -22      -0.12    51.11    -6.10    41.91     6.40   -38.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.74R   17.83  
Sheff_Wed       22   19   -9      -6.95    14.18    -2.91    47.58     6.95   -15.08     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   25.73R    3.95  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.31    31.90    -0.66    38.17     6.32   -34.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.59R   36.71  
Barnsley        23   16  -21      -6.97    13.95    -7.73    38.42     6.40   -35.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.37R   35.01  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, Bradford 1 1 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       23   49  +17      10.36    93.00     6.46    87.53     6.97    27.35    23.13    50.80    97.44    62.94P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   23   48  +25       9.74    91.69    14.90    86.96     7.01    36.32    22.76    50.34    97.13    62.26P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   23   48  +21       4.21    72.01     2.70    91.21     6.92    38.42    47.70    73.82    99.23    82.52P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         23   44  +10       9.48    91.17     5.57    78.80     6.99    14.83     2.81    10.16    77.43    23.84P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    23   39   +8       0.19    50.74    -3.01    78.11     7.18    19.70     2.70     9.97    75.40    28.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       23   38   +8       7.96    86.10    10.71    68.29     7.14     5.74     0.10     0.60    22.99     4.11P    0.14R    0.00  
Port_Vale       23   36   +0       6.68    82.09     3.83    65.08     7.14    -4.34     0.04     0.21    11.63     1.93P    0.69R    0.01  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.91    24.13    -2.26    73.11     7.02    20.27     0.51     2.55    50.73    16.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         23   34   +4       1.49    58.81     2.45    67.02     6.98     6.27     0.07     0.34    17.63     3.91P    0.25R    0.01  
Bradford        23   31   +9       1.77    60.24    12.45    60.06     7.04     5.19     0.00     0.02     3.67     0.62P    3.31R    0.20  
MK_Dons         22   31   +4      -3.93    28.74    -3.24    69.39     7.36    12.13     0.16     1.04    29.82     8.37P    0.17R    0.01  
Coventry        23   29   +8       2.80    65.15     0.91    64.53     7.15    13.97     0.02     0.15    12.13     3.03P    0.86R    0.02  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.42    53.00    -0.48    56.89     6.85   -10.48     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.15P    8.94R    0.62  
Colchester      23   27   -4      -0.72    46.84     1.89    54.54     6.81   -10.25     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P   14.89R    1.25  
Carlisle        23   27  -12       1.31    58.47    -2.47    52.52     6.83   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   25.02R    2.90  
Gillingham      24   26  -10      -1.16    44.59    -0.65    50.39     6.68   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   34.46R    4.95  
Sheff_Utd       23   25   -7      -8.36    11.58    -9.75    58.13     6.97    -4.46     0.00     0.01     1.70     0.43P    6.26R    0.38  
Oldham          22   24   -5      -2.04    39.01     1.04    52.79     6.98   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P   22.07R    2.71  
Shrewsbury      23   23   -4      -5.42    22.05     0.30    50.85     6.75    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   30.04R    4.14  
Tranmere        23   23  -16      -4.45    26.44    -9.67    51.07     6.85   -21.47     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   31.36R    4.49  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.38     5.75    -5.47    54.72     7.21    -1.41     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.21P   14.85R    1.64  
Crewe           23   21  -26      -0.49    48.82    -9.26    42.50     6.51   -42.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.83R   36.59  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.19    22.27    -8.55    43.76     6.69   -30.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    72.67R   26.56  
Notts_County    24   18  -11     -13.27     2.98    -8.40    46.57     6.78   -13.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    54.17R   13.50  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.37    63.25     3.79    78.94     6.93    23.29    27.35    63.72    91.84    72.86P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           23   41   +9       2.87    65.12    -0.74    80.11     7.17    20.04    33.37    67.93    92.87    75.52P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   41   +5       8.43    88.21     3.29    72.72     7.00     5.39     6.18    25.97    66.34    34.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             23   40   +7       5.22    76.46     2.17    73.84     7.09    10.36     8.85    32.55    72.77    42.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.47    63.77     7.11    72.78     6.95    17.88     7.30    29.12    70.20    40.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             23   38   +8       2.09    61.88     1.57    74.24     6.91    14.88     9.67    35.36    76.24    47.27P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       22   37   +8      10.37    93.17    13.02    67.55     7.29     4.87     2.05    10.27    39.37    15.26P    0.18R    0.04  
Fleetwood_Town       22   35   +6       4.20    72.96     4.97    68.55     7.24     6.96     2.55    12.81    45.32    20.03P    0.13R    0.03  
Morecambe            24   35   -3       3.60    69.67    -0.93    63.27     6.69    -5.53     0.28     2.50    17.08     5.49P    0.64R    0.19  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.65    46.95    -3.22    63.18     6.83    -1.75     0.23     2.58    17.79     6.27P    0.82R    0.20  
Exeter               23   32   -1      -0.23    49.17    -2.03    65.18     7.02     1.53     0.70     5.09    27.41    10.33P    0.44R    0.10  
Dag_&_Red            23   31   +2       0.58    53.73     3.44    62.11     6.97     1.56     0.29     2.16    15.53     5.02P    1.12R    0.32  
Hartlepool           23   31   +2      -3.52    31.25    -2.51    65.79     7.05     6.89     0.89     6.45    31.64    13.75P    0.31R    0.07  
Plymouth             23   30   -5       1.63    60.07    -1.33    58.49     6.70    -8.43     0.05     0.53     5.44     1.52P    3.67R    1.16  
AFC_Wimbledon        22   28   -2       1.86    61.58     3.77    56.24     6.99    -8.70     0.02     0.29     3.65     0.92P    7.99R    3.03  
Wycombe              22   27   +0      -3.05    33.36    -0.00    59.69     7.20    -0.23     0.13     1.21    10.01     3.37P    3.05R    1.12  
Portsmouth           23   26   -8      -8.53    12.15   -12.45    59.69     7.10    -4.90     0.07     1.00     9.05     3.37P    3.15R    1.10  
Accrington_Stanley   23   25   -6      -2.57    35.94    -0.51    51.74     6.75   -12.81     0.00     0.04     0.77     0.18P   21.35R    9.92  
Mansfield            23   25   -8      -0.40    49.10     1.20    51.17     6.97   -15.85     0.00     0.04     0.75     0.16P   24.94R   12.39  
Bury                 23   24   -3      -8.96    10.64    -5.16    56.21     7.16    -1.92     0.02     0.32     4.07     1.36P    7.94R    3.22  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.58    21.15    -1.15    52.35     6.83    -7.83     0.00     0.05     0.99     0.25P   17.89R    8.11  
York                 23   22   -5      -5.00    23.43     1.05    49.78     6.79    -9.99     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.10P   29.04R   14.76  
Torquay              23   22  -13      -5.87    19.98    -7.74    49.74     6.80   -18.37     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.10P   32.13R   16.76  
Northampton          23   19  -13      -8.49    10.35    -7.61    47.21     6.80   -17.34     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   45.20R   27.48  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 December 2013, Aldershot 3 1 Welling; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            25   53  +33       5.98    80.38    11.90    93.40     6.19    51.68    62.83    99.62    76.16P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.39    95.25    15.45    89.74     6.57    38.65    30.43    98.13    49.76P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    26   46   +1      12.01    94.69     4.69    72.22     6.22    -1.65     0.15    25.65     3.15P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          23   43  +14       2.92    66.37     1.16    82.00     6.72    25.90     5.36    82.63    27.97P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.06    55.67    -6.68    75.93     6.45    12.08     0.66    50.06    12.40P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          26   41  +11       3.89    69.64     9.22    68.57     6.52    10.74     0.03    14.25     2.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         25   41   +3       8.09    87.19     5.14    67.21     6.23    -0.99     0.01     8.27     1.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.10    86.82     6.86    68.18     6.80     1.41     0.05    12.78     1.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           25   39   +9      -3.65    30.81    -3.96    73.94     6.47    18.46     0.32    40.27    11.60P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.19    72.53     7.66    68.81     6.56     9.86     0.05    14.72     2.49P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        24   37   +4       3.75    70.35     3.74    68.19     6.60     5.55     0.03    12.70     2.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     24   35   +2       0.31    51.78    -0.66    64.88     6.70     1.31     0.02     5.38     0.97P    0.06R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.54    73.75     7.84    65.56     6.90     4.10     0.01     7.33     1.16P    0.09R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.14    32.85     0.77    67.14     6.72    11.88     0.02    10.70     2.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          24   32   +4      -8.20    11.96    -7.78    68.03     6.60    13.10     0.03    13.05     3.52P    0.04R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.82    21.25    -5.75    60.39     6.39    -1.01     0.00     1.13     0.26P    0.38R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.17    44.21    -0.88    53.71     6.45   -15.74     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.31R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     24   27   -9      -1.89    39.66    -2.61    54.62     6.52   -13.19     0.00     0.09     0.00P    3.88R    0.00  
Aldershot        24   25   +5      -5.25    23.40    -6.54    62.66     6.74    16.86     0.00     3.12     0.93P    0.26R    0.00  
Southport        24   23  -17      -3.06    33.51    -5.24    47.93     6.38   -25.81     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.35R    0.06  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.65    36.19    -0.25    43.78     6.19   -26.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.80R    0.20  
Tamworth         23   21  -20      -1.28    43.15    -5.01    45.53     6.46   -31.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.99R    0.19  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.48     8.22   -12.04    38.80     5.88   -36.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.80R    1.24  
Hyde_United      24    3  -44     -15.96     0.07   -17.04    20.03     5.76   -68.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   98.30  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10