Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 30 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          19   42  +19       5.41    81.51     2.51    78.88     5.77    36.85    26.15    55.72    76.34    88.85    98.95     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         19   41  +33      -0.49    44.86     6.51    81.55     5.48    58.76    51.78    76.86    89.75    95.87    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          19   40  +16       3.69    73.09    -0.46    76.01     5.94    31.40    12.91    34.24    57.78    76.75    96.90     0.00     0.00  
Everton          19   37  +13       4.84    78.78     4.27    68.48     5.98    21.12     1.19     5.02    13.12    27.45    76.21     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        19   36  +21       0.59    53.26     5.45    72.36     6.02    37.25     5.05    16.73    35.21    57.15    91.35     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          19   34  +10      -2.72    31.66    -6.95    71.11     5.78    28.16     2.80    10.70    25.09    45.90    88.16     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        19   34   -2       4.41    76.42    -6.79    62.92     6.02     2.04     0.10     0.64     2.29     6.40    33.27     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        19   33   +5       7.16    88.15     6.43    58.14     6.02     2.68     0.01     0.09     0.39     1.45    12.15     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      19   27   +6       1.72    61.82     8.14    52.69     6.10     4.93     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.18     2.95     0.11R    0.01  
Hull             19   23   -1       2.45    67.37     8.30    42.76     5.80   -10.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     6.85R    0.85  
Swansea          19   21   -1      -3.12    31.04     2.48    45.75     5.86    -3.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     2.48R    0.27  
Stoke            19   21  -11       0.18    52.45    -2.76    42.20     5.78   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.98R    1.40  
Aston_Villa      19   20   -7      -1.59    40.47     0.43    41.38     5.69   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    10.93R    1.82  
Norwich          19   19  -16      -0.83    45.08    -4.65    38.13     5.67   -27.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.86R    6.84  
West_Brom        19   18   -5      -6.01    15.55    -0.80    42.56     6.02    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     8.32R    1.27  
Cardiff          19   18  -15      -0.21    49.96    -2.44    36.16     5.50   -29.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.19R   11.99  
Crystal_Palace   19   16  -16       0.26    53.78     1.54    31.87     5.30   -32.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.50R   35.66  
Fulham           19   16  -22      -3.75    26.69   -10.56    36.46     5.71   -33.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.45R   12.17  
West_Ham         19   15  -10      -6.99    11.64    -3.09    36.66     5.83   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.09R    9.82  
Sunderland       19   14  -17      -5.73    16.36    -7.55    34.59     5.57   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.23R   17.89  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, Barnsley 1 2 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       23   48  +14       8.85    89.91     2.47    86.68     6.88    24.87    45.47    68.36    97.01    75.97P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           23   44  +19       7.14    84.15    10.85    81.14     7.00    27.76    17.71    38.52    87.87    49.88P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         23   44  +17       7.32    85.39     9.25    81.07     6.87    25.27    16.46    37.36    87.81    50.39P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             23   43  +11       5.49    78.72     2.33    80.81     6.82    20.09    14.51    34.10    86.42    49.39P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   23   39  +10       4.26    72.90     5.09    73.26     6.87    14.26     2.26     7.38    50.77    16.84P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         23   35   +9       2.95    66.78     8.06    67.40     6.92    10.39     0.39     1.53    21.36     5.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    23   35   +8       2.13    62.21     5.89    68.39     6.97    10.86     0.47     2.01    25.58     6.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton        23   35   +7      -0.97    44.50     0.36    71.25     6.79    14.05     1.14     4.14    39.95    13.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         23   34   +2      -1.35    42.80    -3.80    69.82     7.17     8.52     0.84     3.11    32.04    10.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       23   32   -2      -0.31    48.40    -3.26    63.93     6.85    -1.19     0.07     0.35     8.98     2.22P    0.16R    0.00  
Huddersfield    23   31   +5       0.80    55.24     6.75    60.86     6.88     2.58     0.02     0.13     4.69     0.98P    0.47R    0.01  
Blackburn       23   31   +1      -1.57    41.31    -0.71    63.03     6.87     2.02     0.04     0.24     7.51     1.94P    0.24R    0.00  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.06    19.57    -1.08    65.74     7.07    12.27     0.21     0.97    16.54     5.16P    0.09R    0.01  
Wigan           22   30   +1      -4.24    26.99    -5.06    67.01     7.17     7.35     0.34     1.42    19.78     6.59P    0.06R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   23   29   +5      -3.53    30.89     3.44    61.11     6.97     5.78     0.02     0.20     5.12     1.29P    0.52R    0.02  
Bournemouth     23   29  -10       3.68    71.02     0.34    53.80     6.82   -20.96     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.06P    6.75R    0.46  
Birmingham      23   28   +1      -5.15    23.04    -1.45    61.48     6.94     4.10     0.03     0.12     5.49     1.40P    0.44R    0.00  
Bolton          23   26   -5      -6.37    18.05    -6.33    58.85     6.99    -2.97     0.01     0.04     2.46     0.62P    1.30R    0.07  
Charlton        23   23   -8      -6.66    16.45    -5.61    52.28     6.73   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    8.70R    0.70  
Millwall        23   22  -21      -2.48    36.46   -10.11    46.90     6.60   -31.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.54R    5.06  
Doncaster       23   21  -22      -0.27    50.11    -6.25    42.02     6.42   -38.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.99R   17.53  
Sheff_Wed       22   19   -9      -6.76    14.97    -2.66    47.47     6.96   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   26.54R    4.08  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.30    31.71    -0.67    38.16     6.33   -34.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.70R   36.66  
Barnsley        23   16  -21      -7.06    13.80    -7.84    38.46     6.45   -35.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.45R   35.39  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, Bradford 1 1 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       23   49  +17      10.40    93.11     6.57    87.42     6.99    27.21    23.03    50.58    97.23    62.83P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   23   48  +25       9.75    91.52    14.96    86.91     7.05    36.18    22.83    50.20    97.10    62.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   23   48  +21       4.31    72.93     2.88    91.12     6.92    38.24    47.49    73.65    99.27    82.54P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         23   44  +10       9.51    91.20     5.58    78.77     7.01    14.82     2.96    10.20    77.17    23.78P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    23   39   +8       0.16    50.45    -3.05    78.18     7.16    19.81     2.81    10.27    75.31    28.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       23   38   +8       7.83    85.70    10.48    68.47     7.23     6.06     0.11     0.71    23.94     4.37P    0.17R    0.00  
Port_Vale       23   36   +0       6.76    82.48     3.96    65.03     7.15    -4.43     0.03     0.22    11.51     1.93P    0.68R    0.01  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.82    24.58    -2.12    73.00     7.01    20.12     0.51     2.67    50.04    16.49P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall         23   34   +4       1.51    58.66     2.45    66.99     6.94     6.26     0.05     0.30    17.54     3.80P    0.27R    0.00  
Bradford        23   31   +9       1.90    60.95    12.63    59.99     7.05     5.08     0.01     0.03     3.68     0.63P    3.42R    0.18  
MK_Dons         22   31   +4      -4.07    27.92    -3.47    69.49     7.29    12.24     0.16     1.03    29.71     8.39P    0.15R    0.00  
Coventry        23   29   +8       2.67    64.41     0.67    64.62     7.22    14.10     0.02     0.13    12.46     3.14P    0.88R    0.04  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.49    53.74    -0.44    56.91     6.86   -10.45     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.21P    8.76R    0.59  
Colchester      23   27   -4      -0.86    45.77     1.64    54.66     6.82   -10.09     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.09P   14.75R    1.31  
Carlisle        23   27  -12       1.21    57.83    -2.64    52.61     6.80   -21.86     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P   24.07R    2.79  
Gillingham      24   26  -10      -1.24    44.07    -0.71    50.44     6.72   -19.32     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   34.14R    4.92  
Sheff_Utd       23   25   -7      -8.40    11.28    -9.81    58.16     6.97    -4.42     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.40P    6.19R    0.45  
Oldham          22   24   -5      -1.90    39.64     1.19    52.66     7.06   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P   22.89R    2.86  
Shrewsbury      23   23   -4      -5.36    22.00     0.39    50.76     6.80    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   30.58R    4.31  
Tranmere        23   23  -16      -4.37    26.66    -9.54    50.95     6.86   -21.62     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   32.20R    4.78  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.43     5.61    -5.55    54.87     7.21    -1.19     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.17P   14.29R    1.51  
Crewe           23   21  -26      -0.45    48.84    -9.19    42.43     6.48   -42.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.12R   36.73  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.21    22.30    -8.56    43.81     6.71   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.34R   26.40  
Notts_County    24   18  -11     -13.23     2.78    -8.33    46.57     6.71   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.08R   13.11  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.18    62.05     3.55    79.19     6.95    23.60    29.04    64.99    92.16    73.75P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           23   41   +9       3.03    66.05    -0.47    79.79     7.12    19.66    31.50    66.37    92.45    74.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   41   +5       8.54    88.65     3.50    72.63     7.00     5.27     5.97    25.44    66.05    33.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             23   40   +7       5.17    76.44     2.16    73.91     7.13    10.43     9.08    32.90    72.79    42.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.32    62.94     6.96    72.90     6.96    18.01     7.56    29.85    71.07    41.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             23   38   +8       2.08    61.60     1.58    74.19     6.98    14.81     9.60    35.36    75.91    47.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       22   37   +8      10.31    92.98    12.93    67.60     7.32     4.91     1.91    10.44    39.81    15.47P    0.18R    0.04  
Fleetwood_Town       22   35   +6       4.09    72.50     4.80    68.71     7.23     7.20     2.56    12.98    46.19    20.44P    0.11R    0.03  
Morecambe            24   35   -3       3.65    69.83    -0.92    63.24     6.68    -5.56     0.29     2.39    17.04     5.34P    0.74R    0.18  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.55    47.15    -3.08    63.11     6.76    -1.90     0.28     2.47    17.54     6.00P    0.76R    0.18  
Exeter               23   32   -1      -0.13    49.57    -1.86    65.04     7.04     1.32     0.68     4.98    26.94    10.34P    0.49R    0.14  
Dag_&_Red            23   31   +2       0.57    53.56     3.39    62.14     6.97     1.63     0.26     2.30    15.86     5.54P    1.13R    0.33  
Hartlepool           23   31   +2      -3.42    31.93    -2.34    65.63     7.06     6.70     0.94     6.10    30.79    13.18P    0.33R    0.08  
Plymouth             23   30   -5       1.58    60.12    -1.45    58.54     6.74    -8.40     0.04     0.50     5.68     1.50P    3.82R    1.23  
AFC_Wimbledon        22   28   -2       1.78    61.44     3.65    56.35     6.99    -8.53     0.02     0.29     3.73     0.93P    7.79R    3.09  
Wycombe              22   27   +0      -3.00    33.72     0.08    59.62     7.14    -0.33     0.13     1.14     9.76     3.13P    3.01R    1.02  
Portsmouth           23   26   -8      -8.44    12.73   -12.33    59.59     7.17    -4.97     0.09     1.09     9.07     3.49P    3.46R    1.21  
Accrington_Stanley   23   25   -6      -2.62    36.02    -0.59    51.78     6.77   -12.74     0.00     0.03     0.73     0.16P   20.89R    9.89  
Mansfield            23   25   -8      -0.45    48.49     1.08    51.24     6.91   -15.68     0.00     0.04     0.68     0.13P   24.53R   12.09  
Bury                 23   24   -3      -8.95    10.59    -5.13    56.14     7.11    -1.97     0.02     0.28     3.90     1.26P    7.79R    3.12  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.59    21.35    -1.12    52.37     6.87    -7.80     0.00     0.05     1.04     0.29P   18.22R    8.21  
York                 23   22   -5      -4.91    23.90     1.18    49.71     6.76   -10.06     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.08P   29.63R   15.01  
Torquay              23   22  -13      -5.95    19.64    -7.93    49.83     6.85   -18.24     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.09P   31.57R   16.44  
Northampton          23   19  -13      -8.51    10.53    -7.65    47.21     6.82   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   45.53R   27.72  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 December 2013, Aldershot 3 1 Welling; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            25   53  +33       6.03    80.06    12.00    93.33     6.26    51.59    62.31    99.63    75.78P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.43    95.41    15.51    89.82     6.55    38.76    30.99    98.14    50.35P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    26   46   +1      12.05    94.63     4.81    72.11     6.19    -1.89     0.14    25.02     3.07P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          23   43  +14       3.02    66.74     1.24    82.05     6.67    25.98     5.28    83.12    28.04P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.10    55.84    -6.65    75.88     6.48    12.01     0.67    49.66    12.36P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          26   41  +11       3.65    68.72     8.80    68.65     6.53    10.88     0.05    14.72     2.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         25   41   +3       8.18    87.57     5.22    67.12     6.27    -1.15     0.02     8.18     1.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.12    86.76     6.88    68.16     6.80     1.36     0.05    12.58     1.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           25   39   +9      -3.66    30.64    -3.92    73.89     6.47    18.38     0.33    40.03    11.33P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.11    72.26     7.57    68.81     6.59     9.86     0.03    14.68     2.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        24   37   +4       3.68    70.02     3.61    68.32     6.56     5.78     0.03    13.04     2.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     24   35   +2       0.27    51.69    -0.70    64.87     6.71     1.30     0.01     5.42     0.97P    0.08R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.31    72.92     7.45    65.80     6.86     4.41     0.01     7.68     1.16P    0.07R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.10    33.20     0.81    67.05     6.71    11.79     0.02    10.36     2.24P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham          24   32   +4      -8.19    12.20    -7.79    68.16     6.63    13.26     0.04    13.38     3.63P    0.03R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.62    22.33    -5.51    60.31     6.36    -1.11     0.00     1.06     0.21P    0.39R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -0.92    45.57    -0.44    53.48     6.42   -16.06     0.00     0.08     0.00P    5.55R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     24   27   -9      -1.97    39.49    -2.74    54.66     6.55   -13.07     0.00     0.14     0.02P    3.90R    0.00  
Aldershot        24   25   +5      -5.19    23.43    -6.46    62.72     6.69    16.95     0.00     3.09     0.93P    0.28R    0.00  
Southport        24   23  -17      -3.05    33.83    -5.21    47.98     6.37   -25.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.24R    0.05  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.58    36.79    -0.09    43.63     6.12   -26.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.04R    0.21  
Tamworth         23   21  -20      -1.42    42.60    -5.15    45.68     6.44   -31.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.72R    0.17  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.60     8.12   -12.19    38.88     5.92   -36.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.62R    1.27  
Hyde_United      24    3  -44     -15.96     0.09   -17.04    19.95     5.76   -68.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   98.29  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10