Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 29 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          19   42  +19       5.46    81.80     2.57    78.89     5.77    36.83    26.47    55.85    76.28    88.80    99.04     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         19   41  +33      -0.49    45.01     6.51    81.51     5.45    58.71    51.17    76.57    89.51    95.90    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          19   40  +16       3.67    72.88    -0.52    76.03     5.92    31.44    13.08    33.99    57.73    76.86    96.93     0.00     0.00  
Everton          19   37  +13       4.78    78.43     4.14    68.52     6.00    21.15     1.18     4.99    13.36    27.52    76.16     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        19   36  +21       0.51    52.81     5.33    72.43     6.01    37.36     5.18    17.31    35.50    57.27    91.33     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          19   34  +10      -2.75    31.57    -6.95    71.08     5.79    28.15     2.77    10.53    24.86    45.50    87.63     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        19   34   -2       4.31    75.70    -6.93    63.06     6.05     2.23     0.14     0.67     2.34     6.51    34.15     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        19   33   +5       7.21    88.30     6.48    58.16     5.99     2.69     0.02     0.09     0.40     1.50    11.86     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      19   27   +6       1.71    61.68     8.13    52.74     6.08     4.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     2.87     0.12R    0.00  
Hull             19   23   -1       2.50    67.72     8.29    42.77     5.84   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     6.96R    0.81  
Swansea          19   21   -1      -3.18    30.39     2.43    45.76     5.87    -3.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     2.39R    0.24  
Stoke            19   21  -11       0.25    53.15    -2.64    42.13     5.73   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     9.05R    1.36  
Aston_Villa      19   20   -7      -1.58    40.34     0.48    41.35     5.67   -15.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.94R    1.75  
Norwich          19   19  -16      -0.81    45.47    -4.62    38.10     5.66   -27.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    27.99R    6.77  
West_Brom        19   18   -5      -5.98    15.46    -0.73    42.55     6.06    -8.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     8.30R    1.40  
Cardiff          19   18  -15      -0.16    50.44    -2.42    36.11     5.52   -29.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.55R   12.01  
Crystal_Palace   19   16  -16       0.26    53.72     1.56    31.85     5.38   -32.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.18R   36.31  
Fulham           19   16  -22      -3.76    26.53   -10.59    36.45     5.74   -33.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.21R   12.24  
West_Ham         19   15  -10      -6.94    11.80    -2.98    36.53     5.79   -17.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.16R    9.81  
Sunderland       19   14  -17      -5.73    16.44    -7.54    34.65     5.56   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.13R   17.31  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, Barnsley 1 2 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       23   48  +14       8.91    90.08     2.53    86.56     6.93    24.67    45.13    67.90    96.83    75.43P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           23   44  +19       7.17    84.38    10.88    81.12     6.95    27.78    17.47    38.52    88.00    50.16P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         23   44  +17       7.28    85.36     9.19    81.12     6.86    25.33    17.00    37.53    87.99    50.33P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             23   43  +11       5.64    79.00     2.56    80.71     6.85    19.95    14.27    33.59    86.11    49.00P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   23   39  +10       4.18    72.19     4.93    73.36     6.89    14.37     2.38     7.76    51.47    17.68P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         23   35   +9       2.87    66.23     7.92    67.48     6.94    10.53     0.42     1.50    21.64     5.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United    23   35   +8       1.99    61.54     5.73    68.52     6.98    11.02     0.54     2.22    26.07     7.52P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        23   35   +7      -0.95    44.69     0.40    71.25     6.79    14.03     1.16     4.25    39.52    13.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading         23   34   +2      -1.32    42.75    -3.76    69.81     7.09     8.56     0.80     3.01    31.81    10.57P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool       23   32   -2      -0.19    49.31    -3.10    63.89     6.84    -1.29     0.07     0.36     8.78     2.12P    0.19R    0.00  
Huddersfield    23   31   +5       0.79    55.02     6.75    60.89     6.86     2.63     0.02     0.13     4.52     0.90P    0.50R    0.02  
Blackburn       23   31   +1      -1.71    40.42    -0.89    63.13     6.85     2.10     0.07     0.34     7.59     1.95P    0.25R    0.01  
Watford         23   30   +6      -6.08    19.47    -1.12    65.81     7.02    12.41     0.22     1.01    16.42     5.18P    0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           22   30   +1      -4.16    27.75    -4.95    66.87     7.24     7.19     0.39     1.51    19.72     6.46P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   23   29   +5      -3.52    31.06     3.44    61.09     6.96     5.74     0.03     0.15     5.09     1.24P    0.56R    0.02  
Bournemouth     23   29  -10       3.80    71.67     0.55    53.58     6.78   -21.28     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.06P    6.91R    0.52  
Birmingham      23   28   +1      -5.02    23.91    -1.27    61.43     6.94     3.99     0.02     0.17     5.44     1.52P    0.43R    0.02  
Bolton          23   26   -5      -6.45    17.88    -6.44    58.90     7.00    -2.89     0.01     0.06     2.45     0.63P    1.43R    0.07  
Charlton        23   23   -8      -6.80    16.08    -5.82    52.43     6.75   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    8.42R    0.73  
Millwall        23   22  -21      -2.59    36.13   -10.25    47.06     6.63   -31.02     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   30.60R    4.81  
Doncaster       23   21  -22      -0.09    51.06    -5.99    41.87     6.32   -38.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.03R   17.68  
Sheff_Wed       22   19   -9      -6.89    14.48    -2.85    47.56     6.93   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   25.70R    3.77  
Yeovil          23   17  -18      -3.29    31.83    -0.60    38.09     6.37   -34.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.03R   37.56  
Barnsley        23   16  -21      -7.05    13.51    -7.84    38.43     6.37   -35.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.69R   34.77  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, Bradford 1 1 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Brentford       23   49  +17      10.39    93.31     6.53    87.47     7.00    27.27    22.71    50.44    97.27    62.56P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   23   48  +25       9.63    91.45    14.77    87.12     7.02    36.50    23.42    51.19    97.42    63.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   23   48  +21       4.28    72.27     2.77    91.20     6.94    38.40    47.42    73.38    99.20    82.43P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         23   44  +10       9.55    91.28     5.68    78.70     7.00    14.69     2.72     9.99    77.11    23.14P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    23   39   +8       0.12    50.40    -3.09    78.10     7.19    19.74     2.81     9.90    74.79    28.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       23   38   +8       7.78    85.63    10.44    68.51     7.20     6.09     0.15     0.71    24.06     4.49P    0.15R    0.00  
Port_Vale       23   36   +0       6.70    82.16     3.85    65.08     7.16    -4.31     0.03     0.21    11.75     1.99P    0.77R    0.01  
Swindon         23   34   +9      -4.87    24.57    -2.19    73.03     7.07    20.19     0.52     2.68    50.27    16.81P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall         23   34   +4       1.54    59.10     2.48    66.99     6.95     6.22     0.05     0.32    17.35     3.80P    0.25R    0.01  
Bradford        23   31   +9       1.89    61.10    12.61    59.88     7.04     4.93     0.00     0.02     3.60     0.60P    3.53R    0.20  
MK_Dons         22   31   +4      -4.00    28.36    -3.32    69.46     7.35    12.21     0.14     0.96    30.15     8.61P    0.14R    0.01  
Coventry        23   29   +8       2.80    64.81     0.88    64.48     7.23    13.94     0.01     0.19    12.08     3.03P    0.96R    0.05  
Crawley_Town    23   29   -5       0.50    53.74    -0.36    56.91     6.84   -10.44     0.00     0.01     1.07     0.17P    8.69R    0.59  
Colchester      23   27   -4      -0.66    47.05     1.93    54.54     6.83   -10.32     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.05P   15.21R    1.41  
Carlisle        23   27  -12       1.22    58.02    -2.67    52.52     6.78   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   24.46R    2.99  
Gillingham      24   26  -10      -1.21    44.11    -0.69    50.35     6.69   -19.47     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   34.73R    4.95  
Sheff_Utd       23   25   -7      -8.37    11.55    -9.79    58.23     6.96    -4.32     0.00     0.01     1.78     0.43P    6.13R    0.47  
Oldham          22   24   -5      -1.95    39.34     1.15    52.68     6.99   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.03P   22.35R    2.80  
Shrewsbury      23   23   -4      -5.48    21.43     0.23    50.94     6.78    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   29.38R    4.22  
Tranmere        23   23  -16      -4.32    27.49    -9.48    50.87     6.91   -21.77     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   32.50R    5.01  
Bristol_City    23   22   -3     -11.21     6.18    -5.20    54.63     7.20    -1.54     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.16P   15.00R    1.65  
Crewe           23   21  -26      -0.66    47.48    -9.54    42.66     6.51   -42.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.31R   35.72  
Stevenage       23   19  -20      -5.25    22.18    -8.65    43.83     6.68   -30.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.33R   26.43  
Notts_County    24   18  -11     -13.23     2.90    -8.36    46.58     6.77   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.06R   13.49  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         23   41  +14       2.17    61.98     3.54    79.17     6.98    23.58    28.72    64.55    92.12    73.41P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           23   41   +9       2.87    65.33    -0.72    80.01     7.11    19.95    32.40    67.51    92.61    75.23P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   41   +5       8.49    88.57     3.41    72.72     6.95     5.41     6.15    25.43    66.31    33.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             23   40   +7       5.18    76.29     2.08    73.98     7.09    10.52     9.10    33.25    73.41    42.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   38  +13       2.37    63.20     7.00    72.84     6.94    17.95     6.99    29.08    70.57    40.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend             23   38   +8       2.05    61.53     1.52    74.24     6.94    14.87     9.52    35.12    76.17    46.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       22   37   +8      10.35    93.33    12.98    67.57     7.30     4.90     1.96    10.26    39.58    15.36P    0.16R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town       22   35   +6       4.06    72.37     4.74    68.70     7.23     7.19     2.50    12.98    46.37    20.25P    0.10R    0.02  
Morecambe            24   35   -3       3.60    69.74    -0.93    63.31     6.69    -5.45     0.25     2.37    17.22     5.41P    0.67R    0.19  
Cheltenham           24   33   -2      -0.61    46.84    -3.16    63.12     6.74    -1.86     0.29     2.43    17.40     6.07P    0.69R    0.20  
Exeter               23   32   -1      -0.10    49.86    -1.85    65.05     7.03     1.32     0.74     4.97    26.48    10.23P    0.40R    0.10  
Dag_&_Red            23   31   +2       0.79    55.15     3.70    61.92     6.99     1.29     0.26     2.18    14.97     4.99P    1.17R    0.36  
Hartlepool           23   31   +2      -3.33    32.42    -2.19    65.61     7.08     6.66     0.84     6.25    30.57    13.38P    0.31R    0.09  
Plymouth             23   30   -5       1.72    60.74    -1.22    58.38     6.71    -8.61     0.03     0.43     5.42     1.45P    3.94R    1.25  
AFC_Wimbledon        22   28   -2       1.71    60.83     3.54    56.37     6.98    -8.49     0.03     0.33     3.86     0.95P    7.56R    2.94  
Wycombe              22   27   +0      -3.23    32.34    -0.21    59.83     7.20     0.01     0.11     1.33    10.20     3.49P    2.91R    0.99  
Portsmouth           23   26   -8      -8.46    12.60   -12.36    59.62     7.22    -4.95     0.10     1.02     9.25     3.46P    3.56R    1.18  
Accrington_Stanley   23   25   -6      -2.62    35.80    -0.61    51.81     6.74   -12.65     0.00     0.03     0.71     0.16P   20.57R    9.57  
Mansfield            23   25   -8      -0.37    49.06     1.21    51.15     6.94   -15.89     0.00     0.05     0.75     0.15P   24.94R   12.21  
Bury                 23   24   -3      -8.91    10.60    -5.08    56.19     7.16    -1.97     0.03     0.35     4.16     1.42P    7.77R    3.12  
Bristol_Rovers       23   23   -5      -5.65    21.06    -1.26    52.45     6.85    -7.68     0.00     0.03     1.04     0.30P   17.33R    7.73  
York                 23   22   -5      -4.88    24.11     1.27    49.67     6.81   -10.21     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.11P   29.75R   15.07  
Torquay              23   22  -13      -5.92    19.75    -7.83    49.71     6.83   -18.41     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.08P   32.10R   16.73  
Northampton          23   19  -13      -8.45    10.29    -7.59    47.10     6.80   -17.48     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   46.04R   28.22  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 December 2013, Aldershot 3 1 Welling; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            25   53  +33       5.95    80.08    11.85    93.40     6.22    51.67    62.68    99.70    76.11P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.49    95.53    15.62    89.76     6.53    38.63    30.76    98.14    50.02P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    26   46   +1      11.86    94.22     4.41    72.25     6.19    -1.54     0.12    25.69     3.13P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          23   43  +14       3.04    66.51     1.28    82.00     6.69    25.92     5.18    82.63    27.78P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       1.04    55.61    -6.73    76.02     6.45    12.22     0.68    50.45    12.26P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          26   41  +11       3.88    69.54     9.20    68.49     6.52    10.58     0.06    13.78     2.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         25   41   +3       8.19    87.40     5.26    67.11     6.23    -1.11     0.01     7.91     1.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.09    86.61     6.84    68.18     6.81     1.38     0.05    12.76     1.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           25   39   +9      -3.78    30.27    -4.15    73.96     6.49    18.52     0.34    40.09    11.72P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.18    72.51     7.66    68.84     6.60     9.90     0.03    14.97     2.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead        24   37   +4       3.80    70.61     3.79    68.24     6.56     5.64     0.03    12.62     2.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     24   35   +2       0.41    52.38    -0.46    64.76     6.70     1.12     0.01     5.36     0.92P    0.07R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.32    72.48     7.53    65.68     6.93     4.28     0.01     7.51     1.24P    0.09R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.20    32.53     0.63    67.14     6.75    11.96     0.03    10.62     2.32P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham          24   32   +4      -8.29    11.84    -7.97    68.20     6.61    13.29     0.01    13.46     3.61P    0.02R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.77    21.51    -5.71    60.39     6.36    -1.03     0.00     1.05     0.23P    0.37R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.08    44.57    -0.64    53.53     6.43   -16.07     0.00     0.05     0.01P    5.50R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     24   27   -9      -1.90    39.70    -2.61    54.59     6.55   -13.22     0.00     0.13     0.02P    3.97R    0.00  
Aldershot        24   25   +5      -5.16    23.45    -6.46    62.66     6.70    16.87     0.00     3.09     0.95P    0.25R    0.00  
Southport        24   23  -17      -2.98    33.85    -5.10    47.94     6.32   -25.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.19R    0.04  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.70    36.15    -0.28    43.87     6.14   -26.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.38R    0.21  
Tamworth         23   21  -20      -1.31    43.15    -5.04    45.58     6.46   -31.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.55R    0.16  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.32     8.36   -11.75    38.66     5.86   -36.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.55R    1.23  
Hyde_United      24    3  -44     -16.04     0.10   -17.17    20.04     5.76   -68.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   98.34  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10