Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 28 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 December 2013, Aston_Villa 1 1 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         19   41  +33      -0.55    44.38     6.39    81.61     5.50    58.80    55.61    79.31    90.94    96.45    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          18   39  +18       4.34    77.09     2.35    77.41     6.03    36.11    20.82    48.36    69.70    84.37    98.11     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          18   37  +15       2.50    66.46    -0.76    74.52     6.18    30.54    10.24    28.84    50.19    70.17    95.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        18   36  +22       1.45    59.58     5.63    73.70     6.23    38.23     9.05    26.42    47.44    67.47    94.21     0.00     0.00  
Everton          18   34  +12       3.83    74.25     4.13    67.50     6.21    21.00     1.12     4.64    12.12    25.19    72.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          19   34  +10      -2.70    31.98    -6.87    70.99     5.78    27.97     3.04    11.64    26.81    47.90    89.22     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        18   33   +6       8.07    91.40     6.68    59.39     6.25     3.37     0.04     0.30     1.00     3.12    18.64     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        18   31   -5       3.96    74.75    -8.00    61.29     6.22    -1.06     0.08     0.46     1.71     4.97    26.89     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      18   27   +7       2.48    67.01     8.19    53.60     6.27     5.27     0.00     0.03     0.09     0.36     4.82     0.11R    0.01  
Hull             19   23   -1       2.46    67.40     8.25    42.76     5.85   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     7.09R    0.94  
Swansea          19   21   -1      -3.25    30.25     2.32    45.77     5.91    -3.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20     2.60R    0.29  
Stoke            18   21   -8       0.49    54.42    -1.37    43.43     5.95   -15.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     6.48R    0.84  
Aston_Villa      19   20   -7      -1.66    39.88     0.32    41.41     5.71   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    11.03R    1.79  
Norwich          19   19  -16      -0.81    45.53    -4.59    38.16     5.66   -27.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.72R    6.73  
West_Brom        19   18   -5      -6.01    15.37    -0.74    42.51     5.99    -8.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     8.43R    1.39  
Cardiff          19   18  -15      -0.14    50.64    -2.40    36.03     5.50   -29.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.37R   12.11  
Crystal_Palace   19   16  -16       0.27    53.85     1.52    31.79     5.35   -32.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.23R   36.63  
Fulham           19   16  -22      -3.69    26.77   -10.53    36.47     5.71   -32.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.32R   12.03  
West_Ham         19   15  -10      -6.87    11.84    -2.91    36.55     5.79   -17.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.97R    9.83  
Sunderland       19   14  -17      -5.78    16.28    -7.61    34.67     5.59   -27.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.64R   17.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 26 December 2013, Barnsley 0 1 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       22   45  +12       8.26    88.78     2.10    84.87     7.16    22.41    37.05    59.64    93.95    68.72P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         22   43  +17       7.51    86.72     9.02    81.34     7.07    25.16    20.39    41.06    87.35    52.83P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             22   42  +11       5.83    80.56     2.33    81.11     7.08    20.03    18.53    37.81    85.79    51.42P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           22   41  +18       5.99    80.53    10.54    79.91     7.16    27.37    15.85    34.14    83.43    46.17P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   22   36   +9       3.05    67.36     4.71    71.77     7.06    13.43     1.90     5.89    42.05    14.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    22   35   +9       3.09    67.65     6.31    69.56     7.12    11.62     0.97     3.40    30.59     9.16P    0.02R    0.00  
Ipswich         22   34   +9       3.27    68.58     8.04    68.11     7.13    10.88     0.62     2.28    24.25     6.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Reading         22   34   +5      -0.80    45.17    -2.10    72.08     7.29    12.81     2.28     6.90    43.69    16.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton        22   32   +6      -2.44    36.00    -0.39    69.40     7.01    12.78     0.85     3.14    29.92    10.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       22   32   -1       0.88    55.46    -2.48    65.57     7.04     0.23     0.20     0.85    13.40     3.50P    0.12R    0.01  
Blackburn       22   31   +2      -0.48    47.39    -0.14    65.09     7.07     4.02     0.19     0.72    12.68     3.31P    0.17R    0.01  
Watford         22   29   +6      -5.71    20.29    -1.11    66.15     7.24    12.42     0.41     1.50    17.64     5.60P    0.12R    0.00  
Wigan           21   29   +1      -3.83    28.78    -5.00    67.59     7.43     7.66     0.72     2.32    22.42     7.71P    0.08R    0.00  
Huddersfield    22   28   +1       0.71    55.02     4.92    58.69     7.00    -2.11     0.01     0.06     2.38     0.47P    1.67R    0.12  
Bournemouth     22   28  -10       4.17    73.94     0.50    53.78     7.12   -21.61     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.09P    8.61R    0.94  
Middlesbrough   22   26   +2      -4.26    27.01     1.80    58.53     7.16     1.37     0.01     0.08     2.69     0.67P    1.87R    0.10  
Bolton          22   26   -3      -5.89    19.23    -5.70    60.22     7.18    -0.88     0.03     0.12     3.89     1.01P    1.13R    0.06  
Birmingham      22   25   +0      -6.50    16.90    -2.03    59.10     7.12     2.01     0.01     0.06     3.00     0.72P    1.48R    0.11  
Charlton        22   22   -8      -6.21    17.84    -5.54    53.10     7.01   -10.29     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P    9.02R    0.92  
Millwall        22   21  -21      -1.98    39.12    -9.79    47.16     6.85   -31.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   33.74R    6.74  
Doncaster       22   20  -22       0.14    52.62    -5.98    42.43     6.67   -38.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.67R   20.53  
Sheff_Wed       21   18   -9      -6.59    14.88    -2.90    47.35     7.09   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   30.03R    5.79  
Yeovil          22   17  -14      -3.32    31.33     0.77    39.88     6.59   -29.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.08R   31.32  
Barnsley        22   16  -20      -6.30    16.23    -7.90    39.74     6.71   -34.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.12R   33.33  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 26 December 2013, Bradford 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   22   47  +25       9.81    92.47    14.44    86.87     7.22    35.54    22.87    50.00    95.97    61.09P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   22   47  +21       4.87    76.17     3.11    92.07     7.14    39.16    52.78    76.96    99.16    84.56P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       22   46  +15       9.33    91.38     5.38    85.60     7.18    24.93    15.47    39.27    93.85    52.98P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         22   41   +9       8.23    88.48     5.11    77.10     7.19    13.71     1.73     7.30    65.87    19.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    22   39   +9       1.31    56.60    -2.39    80.77     7.39    22.73     5.58    18.24    81.87    36.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       22   38  +10       8.42    88.15    11.30    70.63     7.43     9.16     0.32     1.56    31.19     6.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Swindon         22   33   +9      -4.30    26.24    -1.90    73.82     7.28    20.81     0.69     3.61    50.39    17.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         22   33   +4       2.10    62.38     2.72    67.56     7.17     6.56     0.08     0.49    17.91     3.98P    0.28R    0.00  
Port_Vale       22   33   -2       5.63    78.94     2.78    62.92     7.33    -7.21     0.01     0.10     6.50     1.10P    1.66R    0.05  
MK_Dons         21   31   +6      -3.33    31.11    -2.36    71.22     7.55    14.83     0.42     2.08    35.93    11.09P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford        22   30   +9       2.11    62.62    12.43    59.83     7.19     4.28     0.01     0.04     3.24     0.60P    3.58R    0.19  
Coventry        22   28   +8       3.40    68.28     1.22    65.66     7.45    15.20     0.04     0.34    14.31     3.78P    0.71R    0.03  
Colchester      22   27   -3       0.54    54.27     2.63    56.92     7.10    -7.70     0.00     0.01     1.13     0.19P    8.77R    0.61  
Crawley_Town    22   26   -6      -0.96    45.34    -1.02    55.13     7.05   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.13P   13.64R    1.06  
Gillingham      23   25  -10      -0.64    47.40    -0.44    50.28     6.88   -20.07     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.00P   34.45R    4.72  
Carlisle        22   24  -13      -0.42    48.57    -3.64    49.96     6.93   -24.54     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   37.39R    5.49  
Shrewsbury      22   23   -3      -4.30    26.70     1.01    52.26     6.94    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   22.91R    2.42  
Oldham          21   23   -5      -1.78    40.07     0.81    52.18     7.20   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P   24.95R    3.00  
Tranmere        22   23  -14      -3.77    29.62    -8.75    52.44     7.09   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P   24.63R    2.74  
Sheff_Utd       22   22   -9      -9.29     8.37   -10.77    56.42     7.17    -6.59     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.25P   10.15R    0.76  
Bristol_City    22   19   -6     -11.61     4.67    -6.34    52.66     7.33    -5.09     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.08P   21.90R    2.91  
Stevenage       22   19  -17      -4.90    23.42    -7.40    45.38     6.92   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.76R   16.64  
Notts_County    23   18  -10     -12.05     3.88    -7.61    48.02     6.96   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   44.99R    8.53  
Crewe           22   18  -27      -2.17    37.91   -10.32    40.06     6.61   -44.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.05R   50.86  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 26 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         22   40  +14       2.93    66.37     4.08    80.01     7.11    24.24    33.79    68.62    93.29    76.51P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           22   38  +15       2.99    66.78     7.95    74.96     7.16    21.06    13.12    41.42    79.28    52.04P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           22   38   +7       1.88    60.09    -1.77    77.65     7.39    16.88    21.77    54.45    86.47    64.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   38   +4       7.27    85.41     3.03    71.06     7.18     4.33     4.47    19.80    56.92    27.64P    0.04R    0.01  
Newport_County       21   37   +9      11.20    95.00    13.32    69.06     7.49     5.97     3.26    14.68    47.16    20.13P    0.11R    0.03  
Southend             22   37   +8       2.49    63.88     1.65    74.90     7.18    15.31    11.82    39.41    77.73    50.53P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             22   37   +5       4.43    73.63     1.41    72.04     7.35     8.06     6.19    24.58    63.15    33.85P    0.04R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   35   +6       4.18    72.78     4.90    68.68     7.22     7.18     2.52    12.96    45.66    20.27P    0.11R    0.03  
Morecambe            23   35   -2       4.67    74.81    -0.39    64.91     6.98    -4.09     0.69     4.51    24.40     8.58P    0.42R    0.11  
Cheltenham           23   33   -1       0.70    54.24    -2.28    65.40     6.99     0.48     0.70     5.31    27.70    10.78P    0.38R    0.09  
Dag_&_Red            22   30   +2       0.66    54.41     3.05    61.90     7.14     0.73     0.32     2.36    15.34     5.14P    1.46R    0.44  
Exeter               22   29   -3      -1.18    43.63    -3.03    62.95     7.24    -1.36     0.38     3.04    18.65     6.81P    1.22R    0.34  
Plymouth             22   29   -5       1.93    62.52    -1.45    58.75     6.87    -8.58     0.06     0.61     6.28     1.68P    3.78R    1.28  
Hartlepool           22   28   +1      -4.68    25.16    -2.85    63.82     7.31     5.47     0.56     4.29    23.37    10.06P    0.87R    0.27  
Wycombe              22   27   +0      -2.99    33.94     0.14    59.58     7.19    -0.34     0.12     1.18     9.60     3.32P    3.09R    1.06  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   27   -2       2.18    63.81     3.72    56.80     7.19    -8.47     0.03     0.48     4.64     1.22P    7.29R    2.82  
Portsmouth           22   25   -8      -8.04    13.10   -12.30    60.71     7.38    -3.93     0.17     1.77    12.37     4.91P    2.78R    1.02  
Accrington_Stanley   22   24   -6      -2.44    36.84    -0.80    51.76     6.92   -13.30     0.00     0.05     0.89     0.23P   21.77R    9.94  
Bristol_Rovers       22   23   -3      -5.00    23.24    -0.27    54.00     7.07    -5.50     0.01     0.13     2.08     0.59P   12.86R    5.49  
York                 22   22   -4      -4.08    27.48     1.46    50.97     6.92    -9.25     0.00     0.03     0.70     0.18P   23.66R   11.21  
Mansfield            22   22   -9      -1.83    40.54     0.53    48.54     7.04   -18.33     0.00     0.02     0.36     0.08P   38.69R   21.67  
Torquay              22   22  -11      -5.15    22.56    -6.74    51.76     7.07   -15.41     0.00     0.03     0.87     0.24P   22.60R   10.67  
Bury                 22   21   -4     -10.03     7.56    -5.37    54.60     7.42    -2.87     0.03     0.26     2.96     1.03P   12.11R    5.20  
Northampton          22   18  -13      -8.45     9.90    -7.99    47.04     6.96   -18.27     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.04P   46.75R   28.33  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 December 2013, Aldershot 3 1 Welling; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            25   53  +33       6.00    80.38    11.93    93.37     6.22    51.65    61.76    99.69    75.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    24   52  +27      11.25    95.04    15.26    89.92     6.52    38.90    31.49    98.31    50.64P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    26   46   +1      12.03    94.51     4.69    72.15     6.24    -1.76     0.15    25.23     3.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          23   43  +14       2.87    65.84     1.06    82.10     6.69    26.12     5.43    83.04    28.35P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    25   42   +4       0.99    55.36    -6.80    75.91     6.44    12.08     0.53    49.76    11.83P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          26   41  +11       3.88    69.41     9.22    68.59     6.57    10.73     0.04    14.46     2.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         25   41   +3       8.05    86.83     5.06    67.22     6.23    -1.03     0.03     8.26     1.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        24   40   +5       8.19    86.93     6.92    68.14     6.84     1.38     0.07    12.84     1.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           25   39   +9      -3.60    30.92    -3.92    73.92     6.50    18.41     0.34    40.11    11.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   38   +9       4.16    72.36     7.63    68.70     6.64     9.71     0.06    14.57     2.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        24   37   +4       3.78    70.40     3.79    68.19     6.60     5.51     0.03    12.75     1.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     24   35   +2       0.42    52.56    -0.45    64.79     6.69     1.17     0.00     5.28     0.92P    0.08R    0.00  
Welling          24   34   +2       4.31    72.85     7.52    65.75     6.88     4.37     0.02     7.67     1.31P    0.06R    0.00  
Forest_Green     24   33   +6      -3.23    32.37     0.58    67.19     6.70    12.01     0.01    10.67     2.36P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          24   32   +4      -7.99    12.88    -7.47    67.94     6.62    12.89     0.03    12.80     3.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         25   31   -2      -5.62    22.33    -5.50    60.39     6.33    -1.00     0.00     1.03     0.18P    0.43R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -1.05    44.72    -0.61    53.56     6.47   -15.99     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.50R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     24   27   -9      -1.92    39.72    -2.62    54.64     6.56   -13.17     0.00     0.10     0.02P    3.81R    0.00  
Aldershot        24   25   +5      -5.31    23.10    -6.64    62.81     6.71    17.12     0.00     3.32     1.00P    0.29R    0.00  
Southport        24   23  -17      -3.03    33.74    -5.16    47.95     6.38   -25.85     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.27R    0.03  
Chester          25   22  -15      -2.74    35.90    -0.35    43.84     6.14   -26.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.57R    0.22  
Tamworth         23   21  -20      -1.25    43.55    -4.94    45.50     6.50   -31.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.12R    0.19  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.60     7.82   -12.17    38.83     5.88   -36.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.80R    1.13  
Hyde_United      24    3  -44     -15.95     0.08   -17.02    19.97     5.75   -68.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   98.43  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10