Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 27 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 26 December 2013, Aston_Villa 0 1 Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          18   39  +18       4.35    76.93     2.37    77.43     6.06    35.99    20.84    48.66    70.41    84.98    98.11     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         18   38  +32      -1.11    40.57     7.34    81.78     5.51    61.60    56.58    80.18    91.48    96.92    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          18   37  +15       2.58    66.96    -0.55    74.57     6.22    30.56    10.44    29.37    51.11    71.19    95.28     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        18   36  +22       1.38    58.77     5.70    73.61     6.19    38.03     8.54    25.83    47.18    67.96    94.23     0.00     0.00  
Everton          18   34  +12       3.72    73.51     4.05    67.57     6.23    21.08     1.07     5.03    12.89    26.41    73.32     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        18   33   +6       8.10    91.50     6.81    59.36     6.25     3.32     0.05     0.30     1.05     3.13    19.48     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          18   31   +9      -3.62    26.22    -6.84    70.12     6.03    28.17     2.41    10.11    23.87    43.65    85.70     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        18   31   -5       3.88    74.30    -8.12    61.51     6.18    -0.78     0.07     0.49     1.91     5.32    28.55     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      18   27   +7       2.41    66.65     8.08    53.65     6.24     5.29     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.44     5.02     0.08R    0.01  
Stoke            18   21   -8       0.41    53.96    -1.51    43.57     5.97   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     6.58R    0.82  
Swansea          18   20   -1      -2.92    31.32     2.25    46.12     6.08    -3.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     2.78R    0.29  
Hull             18   20   -7       2.43    68.32     4.59    39.61     5.92   -18.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    20.20R    3.98  
Aston_Villa      18   19   -7      -1.15    42.88     0.62    41.79     5.95   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    11.42R    1.88  
Norwich          18   19  -15      -0.08    50.57    -4.52    38.91     5.87   -28.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    25.82R    5.94  
West_Brom        18   17   -5      -5.63    16.29    -0.85    42.60     6.21    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     9.28R    1.62  
Cardiff          18   17  -15       0.34    54.12    -2.33    36.49     5.73   -28.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.31R   11.63  
Crystal_Palace   18   16  -15       0.87    58.23     0.80    31.48     5.38   -35.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.76R   40.71  
Fulham           18   16  -16      -3.80    26.01    -7.14    39.06     6.00   -24.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    24.43R    5.83  
West_Ham         18   14  -10      -6.41    12.72    -2.94    37.03     6.00   -17.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.66R    9.44  
Sunderland       18   13  -17      -5.52    16.61    -7.80    34.80     5.77   -27.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.68R   17.85  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 26 December 2013, Barnsley 0 1 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       22   45  +12       8.20    88.66     2.04    84.95     7.09    22.60    37.33    59.97    94.19    69.11P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         22   43  +17       7.58    86.82     9.14    81.30     7.13    25.10    20.44    40.45    87.22    52.21P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             22   42  +11       5.81    80.63     2.30    81.09     7.06    20.00    18.07    37.68    85.89    51.46P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           22   41  +18       5.90    80.05    10.43    79.99     7.21    27.45    16.09    34.49    83.35    46.27P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   22   36   +9       3.10    67.59     4.77    71.67     7.11    13.26     1.77     5.76    41.26    13.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    22   35   +9       3.05    67.23     6.23    69.64     7.18    11.70     1.02     3.50    31.35     9.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich         22   34   +9       3.37    69.38     8.12    68.02     7.14    10.80     0.57     2.19    23.64     6.48P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         22   34   +5      -1.08    43.87    -2.45    72.29     7.35    13.16     2.42     7.31    44.74    17.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton        22   32   +6      -2.29    36.65    -0.21    69.27     7.06    12.59     0.85     3.12    29.29    10.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       22   32   -1       0.79    54.90    -2.62    65.70     7.08     0.40     0.23     0.89    13.88     3.69P    0.11R    0.00  
Blackburn       22   31   +2      -0.47    47.41    -0.10    65.02     7.10     3.96     0.21     0.77    12.37     3.36P    0.18R    0.00  
Watford         22   29   +6      -5.74    20.49    -1.15    66.19     7.26    12.49     0.35     1.38    17.94     5.82P    0.12R    0.00  
Wigan           21   29   +1      -3.74    29.25    -4.84    67.51     7.46     7.57     0.57     2.11    22.13     7.68P    0.12R    0.01  
Huddersfield    22   28   +1       0.60    54.37     4.77    58.71     7.01    -2.07     0.02     0.07     2.40     0.53P    1.71R    0.09  
Bournemouth     22   28  -10       4.08    73.46     0.41    53.87     7.03   -21.50     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.08P    7.91R    0.78  
Middlesbrough   22   26   +2      -4.08    27.93     2.06    58.41     7.12     1.17     0.01     0.07     2.52     0.64P    1.96R    0.12  
Bolton          22   26   -3      -5.96    19.07    -5.84    60.34     7.13    -0.69     0.03     0.14     3.92     1.04P    1.00R    0.04  
Birmingham      22   25   +0      -6.44    17.29    -2.01    59.14     7.14     2.06     0.02     0.08     3.00     0.74P    1.57R    0.10  
Charlton        22   22   -8      -6.20    17.69    -5.53    53.12     6.98   -10.25     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P    8.74R    0.81  
Millwall        22   21  -21      -1.99    39.14    -9.80    47.16     6.84   -31.59     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.54R    6.64  
Doncaster       22   20  -22       0.25    53.16    -5.88    42.31     6.61   -38.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   63.37R   20.40  
Sheff_Wed       21   18   -9      -6.59    15.05    -2.91    47.36     7.08   -15.90     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   29.54R    5.68  
Yeovil          22   17  -14      -3.39    31.11     0.68    39.92     6.60   -29.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.57R   30.59  
Barnsley        22   16  -20      -6.10    16.91    -7.58    39.47     6.63   -34.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.50R   34.74  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 26 December 2013, Bradford 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   22   47  +25       9.80    92.09    14.46    86.84     7.20    35.51    22.80    50.07    96.20    61.43P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   22   47  +21       4.88    75.89     3.10    91.96     7.12    39.01    52.87    76.66    99.16    84.35P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       22   46  +15       9.43    91.57     5.56    85.40     7.23    24.65    15.12    39.04    93.41    52.99P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         22   41   +9       8.18    88.21     5.08    77.07     7.20    13.69     1.95     7.63    65.50    19.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    22   39   +9       1.45    57.71    -2.18    80.64     7.38    22.54     5.63    18.03    81.86    36.32P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       22   38  +10       8.40    87.92    11.25    70.64     7.48     9.26     0.36     1.72    31.54     6.64P    0.07R    0.00  
Swindon         22   33   +9      -4.33    26.48    -1.93    73.90     7.30    20.91     0.77     3.90    51.12    17.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         22   33   +4       2.01    61.91     2.62    67.57     7.19     6.54     0.07     0.51    17.90     4.13P    0.25R    0.00  
Port_Vale       22   33   -2       5.73    79.23     2.93    62.83     7.39    -7.38     0.03     0.15     6.66     1.14P    1.94R    0.06  
MK_Dons         21   31   +6      -3.22    31.62    -2.21    71.13     7.45    14.71     0.35     1.92    35.45    10.74P    0.06R    0.00  
Bradford        22   30   +9       2.00    62.02    12.31    59.97     7.30     4.51     0.00     0.04     3.74     0.67P    3.73R    0.16  
Coventry        22   28   +8       3.51    68.87     1.41    65.53     7.39    15.04     0.05     0.31    13.58     3.60P    0.73R    0.03  
Colchester      22   27   -3       0.59    54.27     2.73    56.87     7.08    -7.82     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.20P    9.07R    0.71  
Crawley_Town    22   26   -6      -0.93    45.59    -1.04    55.14     7.07   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.12P   13.96R    1.16  
Gillingham      23   25  -10      -0.92    45.90    -0.89    50.60     6.94   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   33.19R    4.26  
Carlisle        22   24  -13      -0.25    49.62    -3.39    49.85     7.01   -24.77     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   38.49R    6.00  
Shrewsbury      22   23   -3      -4.40    26.12     0.83    52.36     6.96    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   22.55R    2.53  
Oldham          21   23   -5      -1.80    39.86     0.78    52.22     7.24   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P   24.85R    3.07  
Tranmere        22   23  -14      -3.71    29.77    -8.62    52.32     7.07   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   25.09R    2.91  
Sheff_Utd       22   22   -9      -9.36     8.39   -10.89    56.55     7.17    -6.45     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.24P    9.70R    0.75  
Bristol_City    22   19   -6     -11.66     4.81    -6.43    52.71     7.37    -5.07     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.10P   22.11R    2.87  
Stevenage       22   19  -17      -4.95    23.17    -7.48    45.43     6.87   -26.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    62.72R   16.68  
Notts_County    23   18  -10     -12.10     3.84    -7.70    48.08     7.01   -12.39     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   44.59R    8.48  
Crewe           22   18  -27      -2.16    37.90   -10.31    40.13     6.67   -44.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.89R   50.32  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 26 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         22   40  +14       2.80    65.84     3.88    80.19     7.13    24.52    34.75    69.34    93.23    77.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           22   38  +15       3.14    67.40     8.14    74.98     7.14    21.05    13.01    41.21    79.30    51.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           22   38   +7       1.92    60.50    -1.71    77.57     7.31    16.78    21.11    54.00    86.26    63.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        22   38   +4       7.25    85.36     3.03    71.14     7.18     4.44     4.50    19.90    57.70    27.88P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County       21   37   +9      11.36    95.39    13.56    68.82     7.47     5.65     2.93    14.00    45.65    19.32P    0.12R    0.02  
Southend             22   37   +8       2.51    64.23     1.65    74.96     7.12    15.39    11.85    39.56    78.35    51.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             22   37   +5       4.27    72.95     1.22    72.20     7.32     8.31     6.40    25.40    64.32    34.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   35   +6       4.21    72.98     4.95    68.57     7.21     7.01     2.49    12.84    45.17    19.96P    0.11R    0.02  
Morecambe            23   35   -2       4.76    75.31    -0.28    64.83     6.92    -4.23     0.57     4.18    23.99     8.09P    0.43R    0.08  
Cheltenham           23   33   -1       0.64    53.96    -2.37    65.49     6.97     0.57     0.78     5.33    27.91    10.72P    0.35R    0.08  
Dag_&_Red            22   30   +2       0.80    55.30     3.27    61.72     7.11     0.48     0.28     2.12    14.49     4.91P    1.48R    0.43  
Exeter               22   29   -3      -1.17    43.57    -3.02    62.91     7.29    -1.38     0.38     3.22    18.59     7.08P    1.31R    0.40  
Plymouth             22   29   -5       1.93    62.41    -1.41    58.74     6.88    -8.63     0.04     0.57     6.33     1.73P    3.68R    1.18  
Hartlepool           22   28   +1      -4.81    24.93    -2.98    63.92     7.30     5.61     0.54     4.45    23.63    10.18P    0.81R    0.25  
Wycombe              22   27   +0      -3.09    33.04    -0.01    59.70     7.18    -0.21     0.11     1.23     9.99     3.34P    2.89R    0.94  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   27   -2       2.30    64.54     3.90    56.60     7.24    -8.73     0.04     0.40     4.44     1.11P    7.83R    3.03  
Portsmouth           22   25   -8      -8.13    12.98   -12.43    60.76     7.41    -3.83     0.17     1.69    12.53     4.96P    2.75R    0.96  
Accrington_Stanley   22   24   -6      -2.40    36.78    -0.75    51.76     6.93   -13.33     0.00     0.05     0.82     0.18P   21.64R    9.89  
Bristol_Rovers       22   23   -3      -5.02    23.25    -0.29    53.99     7.03    -5.47     0.01     0.17     2.11     0.62P   12.62R    5.23  
York                 22   22   -4      -4.01    27.70     1.56    50.85     6.96    -9.44     0.00     0.04     0.76     0.17P   24.49R   11.76  
Mansfield            22   22   -9      -1.92    40.00     0.36    48.56     7.08   -18.30     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.07P   38.85R   22.00  
Torquay              22   22  -11      -5.09    22.66    -6.73    51.65     7.00   -15.48     0.01     0.04     0.85     0.22P   22.60R   10.75  
Bury                 22   21   -4     -10.15     7.19    -5.56    54.80     7.39    -2.59     0.01     0.27     3.09     1.07P   11.52R    5.05  
Northampton          22   18  -13      -8.44    10.07    -7.97    47.09     7.00   -18.19     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.04P   46.47R   27.90  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 26 December 2013, Barnet 1 2 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    23   51  +27      11.76    96.25    15.43    90.18     6.79    38.75    37.96    97.85    53.68P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            24   50  +27       6.33    82.15     9.47    91.10     6.50    44.27    46.17    98.61    62.99P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          22   43  +15       4.54    74.83     2.51    84.72     6.88    28.82    12.31    89.20    34.63P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    25   43   +0      10.96    93.38     4.57    71.05     6.46    -1.83     0.14    18.92     2.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    24   42  +10       0.27    51.03    -4.06    78.15     6.58    19.51     2.08    62.16    17.02P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         24   40   +3       8.43    88.38     5.10    67.49     6.48    -1.11     0.04     8.56     1.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet           24   39  +10      -2.72    34.72    -3.55    75.93     6.72    20.42     0.98    49.37    14.62P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          25   38   +7       3.98    70.54     8.05    66.34     6.76     5.77     0.03     7.58     1.17P    0.05R    0.00  
Salisbury        23   37   +4       6.77    83.07     6.34    65.94     7.05    -0.44     0.05     7.54     1.10P    0.06R    0.00  
Gateshead        23   36   +4       4.13    72.56     3.68    68.66     6.83     5.66     0.07    13.07     2.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   23   35   +7       3.47    69.41     6.97    67.56     6.85     8.42     0.04    10.43     1.63P    0.05R    0.00  
Welling          23   34   +4       4.78    74.95     7.82    66.77     7.13     5.79     0.04     9.32     1.41P    0.10R    0.00  
Forest_Green     23   33   +7      -2.29    37.05     0.98    68.40     6.94    12.80     0.07    13.63     2.81P    0.03R    0.00  
Macclesfield     23   32   +1      -1.26    42.96    -1.50    62.06     6.90    -1.44     0.00     2.43     0.45P    0.39R    0.00  
Wrexham          23   29   +1      -8.66    10.24    -8.82    66.51     6.83    10.18     0.02     8.37     2.14P    0.06R    0.00  
Woking           24   29   -6      -0.98    45.06    -0.59    53.51     6.44   -16.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    6.43R    0.01  
Hereford         24   28   -3      -6.88    16.56    -5.94    58.69     6.58    -2.12     0.00     0.56     0.11P    1.16R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     23   27   -5      -1.78    40.38    -0.78    56.26     6.79    -8.54     0.00     0.29     0.06P    2.86R    0.00  
Southport        23   23  -16      -2.17    38.25    -5.29    48.54     6.52   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.29R    0.08  
Aldershot        23   22   +3      -5.81    20.34    -6.83    61.42     6.95    15.31     0.00     2.02     0.63P    0.60R    0.00  
Chester          24   21  -15      -2.51    36.86    -0.57    44.19     6.48   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.73R    0.41  
Tamworth         22   21  -18      -0.73    46.75    -4.35    46.72     6.63   -29.80     0.00     0.00     0.00P   34.34R    0.25  
Dartford         26   18  -26      -9.52     8.18   -12.23    38.77     5.90   -36.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.90R    1.89  
Hyde_United      23    3  -41     -15.47     0.10   -16.40    21.17     5.99   -65.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R   97.36  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10