Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 25 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 December 2013, Arsenal 0 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        17   36  +23       2.30    65.35     5.73    74.30     6.41    37.89    13.33    32.50    52.48    70.33    94.70     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          17   36  +16       3.56    73.40     1.72    75.92     6.26    34.14    17.21    40.63    61.38    78.00    96.68     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         17   35  +31      -2.07    33.55     7.41    80.69     5.72    61.86    52.36    75.57    87.91    94.61    99.57     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          17   34  +14       1.67    61.32    -0.70    73.94     6.35    31.30    10.92    28.89    48.79    67.43    93.88     0.00     0.00  
Everton          17   34  +13       5.51    83.42     5.62    70.44     6.33    24.49     3.77    12.71    25.97    44.09    85.34     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        17   30   +2       7.61    90.99     4.59    57.31     6.39    -1.28     0.03     0.19     0.62     1.84    12.10     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham        17   30   -5       4.67    78.98    -7.47    62.39     6.40     0.08     0.18     0.98     2.94     7.30    33.55     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          17   28   +8      -4.43    21.32    -6.58    68.95     6.20    27.71     2.18     8.52    19.87    36.17    80.69     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      17   24   +4       1.53    61.44     6.31    51.20     6.43     1.01     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.20     2.47     0.40R    0.02  
Stoke            17   21   -4       0.73    56.24     0.77    45.26     6.19   -10.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     3.77R    0.23  
Swansea          17   20   +0      -2.36    34.66     2.06    46.60     6.23    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.43     2.39R    0.16  
Hull             17   20   -6       3.17    73.90     4.47    40.42     6.07   -18.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    16.82R    1.93  
Aston_Villa      17   19   -6       0.29    53.47     1.63    44.55     6.21   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17     5.40R    0.51  
Norwich          17   19  -14       1.22    60.27    -3.69    40.81     6.12   -26.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    16.92R    2.05  
Cardiff          17   17  -12       0.67    56.43    -1.04    38.87     6.02   -24.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    24.96R    3.93  
West_Brom        17   16   -5      -5.57    15.51    -1.30    42.17     6.40    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    10.80R    1.28  
West_Ham         17   14   -8      -5.76    14.75    -2.12    38.29     6.15   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.14R    4.30  
Crystal_Palace   17   13  -16      -0.96    44.47    -0.16    28.80     5.49   -38.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.03R   51.69  
Fulham           17   13  -17      -5.42    16.12    -8.07    36.95     6.17   -26.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.33R    7.61  
Sunderland       17   10  -18      -7.44     7.98    -9.19    31.73     5.87   -30.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.02R   26.29  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Birmingham 0 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         21   43  +18       8.60    90.41     9.59    83.29     7.37    26.98    26.01    47.38    90.60    58.33P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             21   42  +13       6.54    84.05     3.47    83.38     7.25    23.27    24.88    46.63    90.61    59.27P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       21   42  +11       6.92    85.24     1.49    83.49     7.31    21.86    25.34    46.93    90.66    58.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   40  +18       6.46    83.03    10.68    80.44     7.41    27.57    15.40    32.76    83.45    44.75P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   34   +9       3.35    69.25     6.10    69.89     7.42    11.48     1.09     3.45    32.08     9.38P    0.02R    0.00  
Reading         21   34   +6      -0.12    49.20    -2.08    73.70     7.56    14.23     3.29     9.10    51.32    20.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   33   +7       2.06    62.22     3.65    69.20     7.29    10.12     0.76     2.83    27.98     8.36P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        21   32   +7      -1.12    42.95     0.60    71.03     7.22    14.10     1.30     4.28    37.44    13.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Ipswich         21   31   +6       2.59    65.69     6.43    66.02     7.34     7.23     0.27     1.01    15.93     4.01P    0.16R    0.01  
Blackpool       21   31   -1       1.24    57.33    -2.47    66.29     7.34     0.66     0.28     1.06    15.89     4.26P    0.16R    0.00  
Blackburn       21   30   +2       0.25    52.02     0.39    65.97     7.37     4.73     0.27     0.95    15.32     4.01P    0.18R    0.01  
Wigan           20   28   +1      -3.31    30.91    -4.77    68.50     7.74     8.42     0.89     2.69    25.96     8.96P    0.11R    0.00  
Huddersfield    21   27   +1       0.87    56.05     4.67    58.83     7.21    -2.43     0.02     0.09     2.72     0.54P    2.07R    0.13  
Watford         21   26   +2      -5.93    18.98    -2.84    64.30     7.46     8.11     0.16     0.65    12.02     3.59P    0.41R    0.04  
Bournemouth     21   25  -13       3.63    71.95    -0.65    51.69     7.25   -25.49     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P   16.63R    2.85  
Birmingham      21   24   +0      -6.30    16.97    -2.29    59.07     7.34     1.36     0.02     0.08     3.16     0.81P    2.06R    0.19  
Middlesbrough   21   23   +1      -5.64    19.97     1.23    56.42     7.39    -0.37     0.01     0.03     1.64     0.39P    4.65R    0.53  
Bolton          21   23   -4      -7.04    14.53    -5.98    58.62     7.39    -1.91     0.01     0.07     2.72     0.77P    2.63R    0.24  
Millwall        21   21  -17      -2.06    38.36    -8.20    48.70     7.07   -27.30     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   28.51R    6.10  
Doncaster       21   20  -19       0.68    56.15    -4.46    44.10     6.90   -34.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   54.81R   18.09  
Charlton        21   19   -9      -7.68    11.72    -6.28    51.02     7.11   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   16.45R    2.68  
Sheff_Wed       20   17   -9      -6.54    14.67    -3.28    47.19     7.34   -16.86     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   34.14R    8.21  
Yeovil          21   17  -11      -3.02    32.89     2.07    41.79     6.90   -25.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.09R   26.32  
Barnsley        21   16  -19      -5.10    20.90    -7.04    40.66     6.89   -33.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   71.85R   34.61  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Crewe 1 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   21   44  +24       8.68    90.16    14.18    85.57     7.48    35.10    20.49    45.83    94.53    57.82P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   21   44  +19       4.13    72.72     2.49    91.54     7.28    39.07    53.14    76.02    98.95    84.00P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       21   43  +14       8.17    88.94     5.10    83.50     7.38    23.24    11.63    31.54    90.15    46.40P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    21   39  +11       2.45    63.55    -0.75    82.78     7.54    25.67    10.72    29.42    88.30    46.77P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         21   38   +8       7.04    85.19     4.77    75.60     7.40    12.90     1.53     6.17    59.65    16.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham       21   35   +9       7.09    84.55    10.76    68.61     7.73     7.54     0.28     1.25    25.18     5.00P    0.29R    0.01  
Swindon         21   33  +10      -3.16    31.66    -1.23    75.41     7.45    22.15     1.74     6.79    61.38    23.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         21   33   +5       3.02    67.58     3.10    69.19     7.39     7.96     0.15     1.05    26.18     6.14P    0.19R    0.00  
Bradford        21   30  +10       3.03    67.47    12.78    61.82     7.50     6.10     0.01     0.11     7.01     1.31P    2.59R    0.12  
Port_Vale       21   30   -3       4.63    75.32     2.79    60.69     7.60    -9.25     0.01     0.09     4.75     0.85P    4.72R    0.26  
MK_Dons         20   28   +4      -4.12    26.32    -3.08    69.33     7.73    12.46     0.28     1.53    29.17     8.69P    0.29R    0.01  
Crawley_Town    21   26   -4      -0.16    49.79     0.09    56.59     7.33    -9.67     0.00     0.01     1.33     0.20P   11.29R    0.96  
Coventry        21   25   +6       2.38    63.31     0.18    63.12     7.59    11.71     0.02     0.18     9.45     2.37P    2.12R    0.12  
Gillingham      22   25   -9      -0.14    50.16    -0.85    51.65     7.10   -19.07     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   29.73R    4.13  
Colchester      21   24   -7       0.19    52.21     0.55    53.99     7.25   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.06P   19.68R    2.55  
Carlisle        21   24  -12       0.57    54.26    -3.16    51.05     7.16   -24.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   33.97R    5.40  
Shrewsbury      21   23   -2      -3.31    31.34     1.44    54.31     7.24    -6.08     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.13P   17.29R    1.88  
Oldham          20   22   -5      -1.80    39.74     0.31    52.34     7.43   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P   26.30R    3.62  
Sheff_Utd       21   21   -9      -8.83     8.81   -10.65    57.30     7.33    -5.86     0.00     0.01     1.46     0.39P    9.34R    0.86  
Tranmere        21   20  -15      -5.26    21.62    -9.45    50.37     7.25   -21.02     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   36.74R    6.41  
Stevenage       21   19  -13      -4.62    24.18    -5.17    47.74     7.18   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   50.40R   11.73  
Notts_County    22   18   -9     -11.12     4.81    -7.30    49.84     7.18   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   36.73R    6.79  
Crewe           21   18  -25      -1.76    40.34   -10.08    40.92     6.79   -43.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.91R   48.71  
Bristol_City    21   16   -7     -12.87     2.78    -6.82    50.65     7.69    -6.76     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P   33.40R    6.44  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Bristol_Rovers 2 0 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         21   39  +14       3.40    69.33     4.21    80.85     7.30    24.97    36.20    71.96    94.36    79.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           21   38  +16       4.55    75.12     9.19    77.18     7.36    23.25    18.92    53.29    87.01    62.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           21   37   +7       2.42    63.65    -1.54    77.96     7.62    16.83    21.48    55.36    87.04    65.07P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       21   35   +7       5.04    77.29     5.23    70.38     7.45     8.61     3.86    18.84    56.12    27.09P    0.07R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        21   35   +3       6.12    81.75     2.79    69.64     7.43     3.58     2.94    15.49    50.87    23.03P    0.11R    0.02  
Newport_County       20   34   +8       9.72    92.98    12.61    66.66     7.75     3.74     1.81     9.74    36.62    14.31P    0.48R    0.12  
Southend             21   34   +7       1.32    57.84     1.28    73.36     7.41    14.43     7.97    31.51    71.88    43.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             21   34   +2       3.80    71.03    -0.07    70.29     7.50     4.89     3.69    18.04    54.69    26.42P    0.10R    0.01  
Morecambe            22   32   -3       3.27    68.88    -0.95    63.08     7.14    -5.46     0.36     2.89    18.65     6.03P    1.22R    0.34  
Dag_&_Red            21   30   +3       1.69    60.58     3.58    62.96     7.33     1.22     0.45     3.45    20.36     7.06P    1.33R    0.39  
Cheltenham           22   30   -2      -0.76    46.17    -2.97    63.79     7.23    -0.54     0.41     3.93    22.54     8.31P    1.01R    0.26  
Exeter               21   29   -2      -0.15    49.68    -2.50    64.36     7.45    -0.28     0.64     4.89    25.48     9.89P    1.05R    0.28  
Wycombe              21   27   +1      -1.93    39.25     0.72    61.93     7.42     2.02     0.33     2.85    17.51     6.31P    1.90R    0.58  
Hartlepool           21   27   +1      -4.48    25.60    -3.07    63.70     7.51     4.82     0.67     4.52    24.32    10.60P    1.14R    0.38  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   27   -1       3.24    69.92     4.35    58.05     7.45    -7.70     0.09     0.86     7.30     2.00P    6.40R    2.41  
Plymouth             21   26   -6       0.26    52.31    -2.55    56.19     7.02   -10.69     0.01     0.27     3.72     1.02P    8.91R    3.49  
Accrington_Stanley   21   23   -6      -2.05    38.79    -0.74    52.30     7.23   -13.08     0.00     0.12     1.45     0.43P   21.72R   10.80  
Bristol_Rovers       21   22   -3      -4.74    23.89    -0.40    54.34     7.28    -5.56     0.02     0.21     2.71     0.77P   13.77R    6.22  
Mansfield            21   22   -6      -1.78    40.69     1.47    50.34     7.39   -14.78     0.00     0.05     0.96     0.22P   31.34R   16.97  
Portsmouth           21   22   -9      -9.17     9.53   -12.53    59.15     7.69    -4.84     0.12     1.25    10.08     3.96P    5.51R    2.18  
York                 21   21   -4      -3.74    28.84     1.46    51.08     7.19    -9.62     0.01     0.06     0.97     0.24P   25.86R   13.12  
Torquay              21   21  -11      -4.71    24.07    -6.65    52.28     7.27   -15.21     0.00     0.10     1.29     0.37P   22.45R   11.00  
Bury                 21   20   -4      -9.70     7.55    -5.44    54.87     7.59    -2.98     0.02     0.33     3.73     1.37P   13.16R    5.90  
Northampton          21   18  -12      -7.43    12.53    -7.46    48.23     7.23   -17.63     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.09P   42.44R   25.53  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Aldershot 6 0 Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    22   48  +26      10.69    94.88    15.18    89.28     6.93    38.88    41.64    96.99    56.20P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            23   47  +26       4.80    76.08     8.66    88.99     6.69    42.55    41.11    97.23    58.09P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          21   40  +13       3.46    69.78     1.36    82.62     7.09    26.22    10.92    82.85    30.90P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    24   40   -1       9.33    90.30     3.43    68.18     6.60    -5.01     0.08    10.64     1.31P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet           23   39  +11      -1.28    42.11    -2.51    77.69     6.88    22.06     3.02    60.76    19.19P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    23   39   +9      -0.63    46.02    -4.04    76.97     6.80    19.11     2.43    56.27    15.81P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         23   39   +3       8.76    89.93     5.09    67.72     6.66    -1.28     0.09     9.92     1.37P    0.03R    0.00  
Halifax          24   37   +7       4.12    71.30     7.71    66.15     6.98     4.73     0.04     8.34     1.36P    0.09R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.16    73.50     7.04    68.28     6.93     8.44     0.14    13.23     2.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead        22   35   +4       4.76    76.17     4.08    69.71     7.04     6.73     0.19    17.79     2.97P    0.03R    0.00  
Salisbury        22   34   +2       5.65    79.45     5.12    63.15     7.27    -4.32     0.01     4.18     0.64P    0.49R    0.00  
Welling          22   31   +3       3.52    69.83     7.41    64.83     7.36     4.28     0.06     6.68     1.16P    0.31R    0.00  
Forest_Green     22   30   +5      -3.39    30.92    -0.19    66.37     7.14    10.20     0.06     9.48     1.99P    0.11R    0.00  
Wrexham          22   29   +2      -7.13    14.15    -7.55    69.17     7.02    13.21     0.20    17.16     4.64P    0.04R    0.00  
Macclesfield     22   29   -2      -1.71    39.88    -2.54    60.88     6.96    -3.65     0.00     1.81     0.31P    0.87R    0.00  
Woking           23   29   -4      -0.05    50.46     0.55    55.98     6.69   -12.13     0.00     0.23     0.03P    3.98R    0.00  
Hereford         23   28   -2      -6.23    18.63    -6.06    59.64     6.69    -1.78     0.00     1.08     0.20P    0.99R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     22   27   -3      -1.03    44.16     0.30    58.22     6.98    -5.68     0.00     0.76     0.12P    2.13R    0.00  
Aldershot        22   22   +5      -5.29    21.86    -6.18    63.29     7.15    18.21     0.00     4.57     1.45P    0.46R    0.00  
Southport        22   22  -16      -1.58    41.34    -4.84    49.82     6.78   -24.96     0.00     0.02     0.00P   21.59R    0.10  
Chester          23   20  -15      -2.16    38.34    -0.21    43.79     6.58   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.54R    0.72  
Tamworth         21   20  -18      -0.38    48.78    -4.36    47.07     6.91   -29.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.25R    0.42  
Dartford         25   18  -25      -8.36    10.57   -11.61    40.44     6.11   -35.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.14R    1.82  
Hyde_United      22    3  -38     -15.45     0.12   -15.85    22.21     6.17   -63.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   96.93  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10