Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 23 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 December 2013, Arsenal 0 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        17   36  +23       2.28    65.42     5.65    74.36     6.40    37.97    13.72    33.06    52.69    70.73    94.80     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          17   36  +16       3.56    73.31     1.76    75.91     6.22    34.10    17.09    40.48    61.27    78.05    96.63     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         17   35  +31      -1.98    34.17     7.61    80.62     5.77    61.61    51.91    75.01    87.65    94.49    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          17   34  +14       1.65    61.03    -0.74    73.91     6.36    31.24    10.75    28.78    48.51    67.10    94.01     0.00     0.00  
Everton          17   34  +13       5.52    83.56     5.65    70.45     6.39    24.49     3.97    12.75    26.18    44.09    85.30     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        17   30   +2       7.78    91.46     4.86    57.08     6.37    -1.67     0.03     0.15     0.54     1.58    11.30     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham        17   30   -5       4.56    78.62    -7.61    62.48     6.40     0.21     0.24     1.04     3.15     7.61    34.24     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          17   28   +8      -4.49    20.80    -6.63    68.94     6.22    27.69     2.29     8.72    19.96    36.08    80.53     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      17   24   +4       1.52    61.30     6.31    51.21     6.46     0.98     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.22     2.62     0.43R    0.01  
Stoke            17   21   -4       0.62    55.31     0.60    45.40     6.16   -10.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29     3.75R    0.25  
Swansea          17   20   +0      -2.37    34.49     2.02    46.68     6.22    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.41     2.42R    0.17  
Hull             17   20   -6       3.18    73.76     4.50    40.42     6.08   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    16.90R    1.88  
Aston_Villa      17   19   -6       0.43    54.28     1.83    44.34     6.18   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15     5.72R    0.62  
Norwich          17   19  -14       1.14    59.19    -3.81    40.88     6.14   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    16.80R    2.10  
Cardiff          17   17  -12       0.85    57.94    -0.77    38.71     6.05   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    25.74R    4.19  
West_Brom        17   16   -5      -5.63    15.46    -1.42    42.23     6.37    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    10.43R    1.32  
West_Ham         17   14   -8      -5.84    14.32    -2.25    38.41     6.17   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    25.36R    4.12  
Crystal_Palace   17   13  -16      -0.99    44.02    -0.20    28.86     5.51   -38.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.81R   51.60  
Fulham           17   13  -17      -5.34    16.48    -8.01    36.90     6.17   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.11R    7.76  
Sunderland       17   10  -18      -7.52     7.78    -9.34    31.81     5.85   -30.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.49R   25.98  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Birmingham 0 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         21   43  +18       8.72    90.70     9.78    83.11     7.31    26.69    24.93    46.17    90.55    56.91P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             21   42  +13       6.53    83.79     3.42    83.41     7.30    23.26    25.05    46.72    90.60    59.54P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       21   42  +11       6.82    84.82     1.35    83.59     7.38    21.95    25.92    47.72    90.65    59.25P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   40  +18       6.52    83.15    10.79    80.42     7.46    27.52    15.58    32.91    83.24    44.77P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   34   +9       3.37    69.73     6.21    69.78     7.42    11.33     1.07     3.35    31.38     9.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Reading         21   34   +6      -0.19    48.71    -2.15    73.76     7.60    14.34     3.48     9.30    51.83    21.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   33   +7       2.00    61.94     3.60    69.34     7.32    10.28     0.82     2.84    28.76     8.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton        21   32   +7      -1.19    42.78     0.46    71.13     7.23    14.27     1.35     4.29    37.92    13.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich         21   31   +6       2.71    66.32     6.60    65.91     7.38     7.02     0.26     1.04    15.74     3.92P    0.19R    0.01  
Blackpool       21   31   -1       1.22    57.35    -2.54    66.24     7.27     0.67     0.21     0.96    15.56     4.05P    0.15R    0.01  
Blackburn       21   30   +2       0.21    51.48     0.36    65.98     7.30     4.72     0.24     0.99    15.18     4.21P    0.16R    0.00  
Wigan           20   28   +1      -3.34    31.09    -4.85    68.52     7.75     8.50     0.83     2.74    26.24     9.21P    0.08R    0.00  
Huddersfield    21   27   +1       0.96    56.58     4.77    58.77     7.28    -2.55     0.01     0.06     2.80     0.57P    2.35R    0.21  
Watford         21   26   +2      -5.92    18.72    -2.75    64.22     7.45     7.91     0.20     0.73    11.77     3.49P    0.41R    0.03  
Bournemouth     21   25  -13       3.57    71.80    -0.81    51.77     7.22   -25.35     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P   16.40R    2.73  
Birmingham      21   24   +0      -6.21    17.77    -2.14    59.00     7.40     1.31     0.01     0.09     3.18     0.84P    2.27R    0.22  
Middlesbrough   21   23   +1      -5.63    20.02     1.27    56.38     7.37    -0.43     0.01     0.03     1.62     0.37P    4.72R    0.53  
Bolton          21   23   -4      -6.97    14.55    -5.86    58.49     7.34    -2.04     0.01     0.05     2.45     0.65P    2.61R    0.26  
Millwall        21   21  -17      -2.10    38.02    -8.31    48.76     7.09   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   28.43R    6.14  
Doncaster       21   20  -19       0.55    55.37    -4.63    44.24     7.00   -34.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.18R   17.78  
Charlton        21   19   -9      -7.53    12.40    -6.09    50.88     7.18   -12.02     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   17.46R    3.06  
Sheff_Wed       20   17   -9      -6.56    14.50    -3.30    47.27     7.38   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   33.86R    8.49  
Yeovil          21   17  -11      -3.07    32.43     2.00    41.84     6.96   -25.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.03R   26.68  
Barnsley        21   16  -19      -5.19    20.30    -7.17    40.78     6.91   -33.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.63R   33.83  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Crewe 1 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   21   44  +24       8.69    90.14    14.20    85.56     7.44    35.05    20.14    45.22    94.71    57.43P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   21   44  +19       4.22    73.05     2.62    91.51     7.38    39.01    52.84    75.69    98.92    83.74P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       21   43  +14       8.16    88.87     5.10    83.48     7.40    23.14    11.60    31.16    90.00    45.59P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    21   39  +11       2.12    61.56    -1.24    83.04     7.60    26.10    11.26    30.57    89.02    48.18P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         21   38   +8       7.10    85.41     4.87    75.49     7.44    12.78     1.56     6.19    59.23    16.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       21   35   +9       7.21    84.89    11.01    68.45     7.74     7.29     0.24     1.22    24.64     4.79P    0.30R    0.00  
Swindon         21   33  +10      -3.25    31.33    -1.33    75.48     7.48    22.27     1.83     7.17    61.86    23.51P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         21   33   +5       3.14    68.49     3.30    69.12     7.38     7.84     0.16     0.98    25.95     5.89P    0.18R    0.00  
Bradford        21   30  +10       3.02    67.49    12.80    61.77     7.48     6.07     0.02     0.10     6.81     1.23P    2.56R    0.13  
Port_Vale       21   30   -3       4.51    74.91     2.58    60.76     7.54    -9.09     0.01     0.06     4.77     0.73P    4.45R    0.27  
MK_Dons         20   28   +4      -4.12    26.46    -3.15    69.32     7.68    12.44     0.29     1.39    29.13     8.54P    0.27R    0.01  
Crawley_Town    21   26   -4      -0.29    49.12    -0.12    56.77     7.33    -9.41     0.00     0.01     1.44     0.24P   11.03R    0.95  
Coventry        21   25   +6       2.42    63.41     0.23    63.11     7.66    11.65     0.05     0.23     9.47     2.48P    2.16R    0.12  
Gillingham      22   25   -9      -0.03    50.79    -0.69    51.54     7.11   -19.18     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P   30.54R    4.26  
Colchester      21   24   -7       0.21    52.41     0.54    54.10     7.22   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.08P   19.06R    2.33  
Carlisle        21   24  -12       0.49    54.09    -3.33    51.20     7.14   -23.82     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   33.06R    4.99  
Shrewsbury      21   23   -2      -3.19    32.30     1.64    54.18     7.19    -6.29     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.14P   17.51R    1.89  
Oldham          20   22   -5      -1.70    40.43     0.44    52.29     7.40   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.06P   26.51R    3.63  
Sheff_Utd       21   21   -9      -8.72     9.32   -10.54    57.26     7.35    -5.91     0.00     0.01     1.54     0.42P    9.51R    0.85  
Tranmere        21   20  -15      -5.28    21.52    -9.48    50.38     7.23   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   36.74R    6.18  
Stevenage       21   19  -13      -4.67    23.99    -5.26    47.72     7.22   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   50.73R   12.10  
Notts_County    22   18   -9     -11.03     5.03    -7.13    49.77     7.22   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   37.29R    6.73  
Crewe           21   18  -25      -1.79    39.97   -10.04    40.79     6.77   -43.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.47R   49.43  
Bristol_City    21   16   -7     -13.03     2.65    -7.03    50.82     7.70    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P   32.63R    6.14  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Bristol_Rovers 2 0 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         21   39  +14       3.40    69.53     4.23    80.84     7.27    24.96    36.34    72.16    94.60    79.24P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           21   38  +16       4.67    75.55     9.38    76.98     7.38    22.91    18.59    52.30    86.14    61.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           21   37   +7       2.38    63.32    -1.59    78.01     7.60    16.92    21.81    55.79    87.27    65.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       21   35   +7       5.17    77.96     5.38    70.26     7.41     8.49     3.74    18.33    55.51    26.81P    0.09R    0.03  
Burton_Albion        21   35   +3       6.04    81.61     2.64    69.75     7.41     3.77     3.10    15.90    51.52    23.51P    0.10R    0.02  
Newport_County       20   34   +8       9.87    93.34    12.83    66.43     7.69     3.40     1.58     9.04    35.40    13.28P    0.39R    0.11  
Southend             21   34   +7       1.30    57.90     1.22    73.36     7.37    14.44     7.91    31.85    71.91    43.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             21   34   +2       3.70    70.88    -0.20    70.37     7.50     5.01     3.81    18.48    55.16    27.18P    0.11R    0.02  
Morecambe            22   32   -3       3.36    69.22    -0.87    62.97     7.13    -5.59     0.36     2.97    18.31     6.02P    1.22R    0.39  
Dag_&_Red            21   30   +3       1.66    60.62     3.51    63.06     7.39     1.30     0.50     3.76    20.82     7.52P    1.27R    0.39  
Cheltenham           22   30   -2      -0.69    46.45    -2.84    63.77     7.21    -0.61     0.49     3.60    22.39     8.17P    1.00R    0.30  
Exeter               21   29   -2      -0.16    49.21    -2.51    64.38     7.44    -0.27     0.60     4.92    25.43    10.02P    0.90R    0.25  
Wycombe              21   27   +1      -1.98    39.13     0.63    62.00     7.50     2.10     0.32     2.96    17.99     6.58P    2.07R    0.72  
Hartlepool           21   27   +1      -4.56    25.26    -3.16    63.80     7.46     4.97     0.56     4.48    24.41    10.41P    1.11R    0.36  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   27   -1       3.16    69.38     4.23    58.14     7.45    -7.54     0.08     0.96     7.43     2.21P    6.18R    2.27  
Plymouth             21   26   -6       0.25    52.53    -2.53    56.20     7.03   -10.66     0.02     0.32     3.61     1.05P    8.99R    3.65  
Accrington_Stanley   21   23   -6      -2.03    38.81    -0.71    52.42     7.17   -12.98     0.01     0.10     1.48     0.33P   21.37R   10.02  
Bristol_Rovers       21   22   -3      -4.76    23.78    -0.43    54.31     7.31    -5.60     0.01     0.20     2.69     0.74P   13.88R    6.11  
Mansfield            21   22   -6      -1.59    41.77     1.73    50.16     7.40   -15.04     0.00     0.06     0.92     0.24P   32.21R   17.74  
Portsmouth           21   22   -9      -9.30     9.17   -12.75    59.30     7.70    -4.58     0.12     1.38    10.67     4.13P    5.27R    2.10  
York                 21   21   -4      -3.73    28.82     1.47    51.11     7.19    -9.59     0.01     0.04     1.08     0.24P   25.82R   13.11  
Torquay              21   21  -11      -4.80    23.43    -6.75    52.17     7.26   -15.30     0.00     0.07     1.23     0.34P   22.86R   11.18  
Bury                 21   20   -4      -9.74     7.33    -5.46    54.96     7.54    -2.90     0.02     0.33     3.67     1.33P   12.70R    5.75  
Northampton          21   18  -12      -7.43    12.69    -7.44    48.21     7.26   -17.62     0.00     0.02     0.34     0.08P   42.47R   25.47  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Aldershot 6 0 Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    22   48  +26      10.77    95.11    15.27    89.22     6.93    38.80    41.71    97.00    56.01P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            23   47  +26       4.81    76.00     8.64    88.92     6.71    42.50    40.80    97.20    58.10P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          21   40  +13       3.45    69.96     1.32    82.58     7.09    26.14    11.06    82.68    30.79P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    24   40   -1       9.40    90.56     3.56    68.07     6.56    -5.23     0.08    10.43     1.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           23   39  +11      -1.28    42.28    -2.51    77.74     6.85    22.12     3.19    61.21    19.76P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    23   39   +9      -0.58    46.30    -3.97    76.92     6.79    19.07     2.41    56.12    15.93P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         23   39   +3       8.61    89.70     4.86    67.91     6.67    -1.03     0.10    10.37     1.44P    0.03R    0.00  
Halifax          24   37   +7       4.09    71.38     7.65    66.18     6.94     4.79     0.04     8.30     1.33P    0.07R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.12    73.13     6.92    68.34     6.96     8.50     0.14    13.61     2.39P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead        22   35   +4       4.71    75.92     4.01    69.80     7.07     6.92     0.19    18.14     3.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        22   34   +2       5.78    80.22     5.29    63.02     7.24    -4.49     0.02     4.02     0.57P    0.53R    0.00  
Welling          22   31   +3       3.47    69.32     7.38    64.90     7.36     4.42     0.03     6.72     1.19P    0.32R    0.00  
Forest_Green     22   30   +5      -3.26    31.31     0.04    66.35     7.14    10.11     0.06     9.43     1.95P    0.13R    0.00  
Wrexham          22   29   +2      -7.15    14.32    -7.54    69.20     6.94    13.25     0.17    16.66     4.37P    0.03R    0.00  
Macclesfield     22   29   -2      -1.70    40.35    -2.56    60.90     6.94    -3.63     0.00     1.75     0.30P    0.79R    0.00  
Woking           23   29   -4      -0.07    50.18     0.51    55.95     6.69   -12.17     0.00     0.24     0.04P    4.21R    0.00  
Hereford         23   28   -2      -6.35    18.08    -6.25    59.80     6.73    -1.54     0.00     1.18     0.26P    1.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     22   27   -3      -1.22    43.10    -0.02    58.37     6.95    -5.42     0.00     0.77     0.12P    2.02R    0.00  
Aldershot        22   22   +5      -5.19    22.25    -6.02    63.14     7.09    17.97     0.01     4.15     1.26P    0.45R    0.00  
Southport        22   22  -16      -1.47    42.00    -4.64    49.74     6.77   -25.10     0.00     0.02     0.00P   21.98R    0.10  
Chester          23   20  -15      -2.14    38.53    -0.19    43.79     6.61   -27.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.59R    0.72  
Tamworth         21   20  -18      -0.43    48.51    -4.43    47.13     6.89   -29.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.80R    0.37  
Dartford         25   18  -25      -8.36    10.77   -11.58    40.41     6.14   -35.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.03R    1.85  
Hyde_United      22    3  -38     -15.42     0.11   -15.77    22.14     6.15   -63.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R   96.94  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10