Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 22 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 December 2013, Southampton 2 3 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        17   36  +23       2.36    65.73     5.82    74.30     6.43    37.91    12.59    31.21    51.61    69.95    94.56     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         17   35  +31      -2.04    33.81     7.45    80.75     5.73    61.86    49.98    74.48    87.47    94.68    99.58     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   35  +16       4.08    77.35     1.78    76.77     6.51    35.07    20.77    45.00    65.11    80.17    97.06     0.00     0.00  
Everton          17   34  +13       5.53    83.49     5.64    70.44     6.37    24.48     3.45    11.74    25.45    43.74    85.21     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   33  +14       1.77    62.30    -1.26    73.98     6.58    30.87    10.97    28.37    47.63    66.46    93.64     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        17   30   +2       7.66    91.20     4.68    57.21     6.35    -1.50     0.03     0.13     0.50     1.64    11.86     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham        17   30   -5       4.69    79.31    -7.40    62.32     6.43    -0.09     0.19     0.99     3.00     7.27    33.41     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          17   28   +8      -4.52    20.72    -6.72    68.98     6.21    27.81     2.02     8.07    19.18    35.84    81.03     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      17   24   +4       1.50    61.08     6.29    51.24     6.44     1.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.22     2.60     0.40R    0.02  
Stoke            17   21   -4       0.67    55.74     0.74    45.34     6.14   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     3.54R    0.23  
Swansea          17   20   +0      -2.34    34.48     2.07    46.61     6.21    -4.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.43     2.43R    0.14  
Hull             17   20   -6       3.26    74.30     4.69    40.36     6.05   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    16.91R    1.86  
Aston_Villa      17   19   -6       0.28    53.16     1.66    44.53     6.18   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16     5.22R    0.51  
Norwich          17   19  -14       1.20    59.85    -3.68    40.82     6.13   -26.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    17.00R    2.11  
Cardiff          17   17  -12       0.78    57.26    -0.78    38.76     6.06   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    25.63R    4.24  
West_Brom        17   16   -5      -5.64    15.27    -1.35    42.22     6.41    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    10.82R    1.36  
West_Ham         17   14   -8      -5.77    14.69    -2.12    38.36     6.16   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    25.66R    4.14  
Crystal_Palace   17   13  -16      -1.02    44.08    -0.15    28.82     5.53   -38.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.98R   51.66  
Fulham           17   13  -17      -5.42    16.42    -8.06    36.99     6.21   -26.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.57R    7.46  
Sunderland       17   10  -18      -7.52     7.76    -9.30    31.77     5.85   -30.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.84R   26.27  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Birmingham 0 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         21   43  +18       8.79    90.78     9.86    83.07     7.40    26.68    24.74    46.12    90.05    57.11P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             21   42  +13       6.58    84.16     3.51    83.34     7.31    23.21    25.06    46.37    90.41    59.47P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       21   42  +11       6.98    85.33     1.60    83.39     7.35    21.67    25.52    46.79    90.19    58.15P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   40  +18       6.39    82.42    10.60    80.50     7.44    27.64    15.98    33.35    83.45    45.23P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   34   +9       3.36    69.38     6.15    69.78     7.39    11.34     1.00     3.28    31.14     9.10P    0.03R    0.00  
Reading         21   34   +6      -0.36    47.74    -2.40    73.91     7.58    14.59     3.53     9.76    52.44    21.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   33   +7       1.89    61.29     3.42    69.44     7.31    10.42     0.90     2.86    28.98     8.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        21   32   +7      -1.19    42.77     0.46    71.17     7.27    14.33     1.42     4.59    38.19    13.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich         21   31   +6       2.68    66.00     6.55    66.00     7.39     7.16     0.30     1.18    16.00     4.10P    0.18R    0.01  
Blackpool       21   31   -1       1.32    57.99    -2.40    66.14     7.33     0.47     0.24     0.99    15.33     4.03P    0.18R    0.01  
Blackburn       21   30   +2       0.25    51.85     0.42    65.93     7.38     4.66     0.23     0.99    15.15     4.00P    0.21R    0.01  
Wigan           20   28   +1      -3.37    30.71    -4.89    68.57     7.77     8.54     0.86     2.77    26.20     9.14P    0.11R    0.01  
Huddersfield    21   27   +1       0.87    56.18     4.65    58.86     7.22    -2.41     0.02     0.07     2.64     0.57P    2.19R    0.16  
Watford         21   26   +2      -6.02    18.47    -2.92    64.34     7.42     8.12     0.16     0.70    11.89     3.55P    0.38R    0.02  
Bournemouth     21   25  -13       3.76    73.00    -0.46    51.58     7.25   -25.68     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.03P   17.04R    2.96  
Birmingham      21   24   +0      -6.29    17.25    -2.26    59.05     7.34     1.38     0.02     0.10     3.16     0.89P    2.06R    0.19  
Middlesbrough   21   23   +1      -5.68    19.76     1.21    56.42     7.39    -0.40     0.00     0.02     1.65     0.35P    4.58R    0.49  
Bolton          21   23   -4      -7.08    14.26    -6.06    58.71     7.38    -1.73     0.01     0.07     2.63     0.67P    2.56R    0.24  
Millwall        21   21  -17      -2.06    38.69    -8.20    48.77     7.07   -27.20     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   27.76R    6.03  
Doncaster       21   20  -19       0.64    55.87    -4.50    44.09     6.94   -34.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.64R   17.98  
Charlton        21   19   -9      -7.70    11.73    -6.33    51.10     7.19   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   16.42R    2.66  
Sheff_Wed       20   17   -9      -6.43    15.06    -3.12    47.07     7.30   -17.01     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   34.57R    8.53  
Yeovil          21   17  -11      -2.98    33.27     2.17    41.72     6.90   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.30R   26.44  
Barnsley        21   16  -19      -5.10    20.86    -7.05    40.71     6.89   -33.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.74R   34.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Crewe 1 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   21   44  +24       8.77    90.25    14.29    85.53     7.45    35.00    20.29    44.94    94.48    57.05P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   21   44  +19       4.27    73.33     2.69    91.45     7.33    38.89    52.82    75.56    98.89    83.48P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       21   43  +14       8.12    88.80     5.05    83.50     7.42    23.23    11.60    31.28    90.24    46.03P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    21   39  +11       2.18    61.95    -1.13    83.03     7.60    26.06    11.27    30.59    88.75    48.39P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         21   38   +8       7.04    85.18     4.74    75.50     7.43    12.82     1.59     6.23    59.09    16.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       21   35   +9       7.21    85.11    10.99    68.49     7.70     7.35     0.22     1.17    24.57     4.79P    0.29R    0.01  
Swindon         21   33  +10      -3.16    31.38    -1.20    75.36     7.46    22.10     1.66     7.05    60.97    23.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         21   33   +5       3.05    67.76     3.18    69.22     7.46     7.98     0.18     1.16    26.66     6.13P    0.18R    0.00  
Bradford        21   30  +10       2.93    66.84    12.67    61.89     7.51     6.23     0.01     0.12     6.99     1.31P    2.63R    0.12  
Port_Vale       21   30   -3       4.47    74.66     2.54    60.76     7.56    -9.09     0.01     0.10     4.74     0.82P    4.43R    0.24  
MK_Dons         20   28   +4      -4.22    26.38    -3.21    69.41     7.76    12.61     0.32     1.58    29.69     8.80P    0.28R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    21   26   -4      -0.24    49.41    -0.07    56.73     7.33    -9.43     0.00     0.02     1.37     0.26P   11.04R    0.85  
Coventry        21   25   +6       2.40    63.38     0.20    63.17     7.62    11.73     0.02     0.19     9.49     2.38P    2.06R    0.11  
Gillingham      22   25   -9      -0.03    50.99    -0.69    51.53     7.11   -19.21     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   30.51R    4.15  
Colchester      21   24   -7       0.08    51.76     0.32    54.24     7.26   -13.26     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.10P   18.69R    2.40  
Carlisle        21   24  -12       0.63    54.95    -3.09    51.04     7.22   -24.09     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P   33.85R    5.34  
Shrewsbury      21   23   -2      -3.18    32.01     1.65    54.17     7.23    -6.29     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.10P   17.78R    1.96  
Oldham          20   22   -5      -1.68    40.28     0.46    52.17     7.41   -13.05     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P   26.85R    3.98  
Sheff_Utd       21   21   -9      -8.74     9.16   -10.55    57.21     7.38    -5.93     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.41P    9.60R    0.79  
Tranmere        21   20  -15      -5.23    21.73    -9.37    50.30     7.26   -21.12     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   36.85R    6.33  
Stevenage       21   19  -13      -4.73    23.79    -5.33    47.75     7.20   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   50.25R   11.77  
Notts_County    22   18   -9     -11.11     4.87    -7.26    49.84     7.26   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   37.02R    6.70  
Crewe           21   18  -25      -1.70    40.93    -9.94    40.75     6.78   -44.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   85.55R   49.08  
Bristol_City    21   16   -7     -12.98     2.86    -6.98    50.82     7.66    -6.48     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.06P   32.13R    6.15  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Bristol_Rovers 2 0 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         21   39  +14       3.39    69.23     4.17    80.89     7.31    24.99    36.42    72.35    94.39    79.34P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           21   38  +16       4.61    75.12     9.26    77.12     7.37    23.16    19.03    53.22    86.73    62.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           21   37   +7       2.40    63.67    -1.53    77.93     7.65    16.82    21.35    55.74    86.95    65.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       21   35   +7       5.20    77.99     5.45    70.20     7.40     8.37     3.76    18.09    55.17    26.22P    0.06R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        21   35   +3       6.11    81.75     2.76    69.69     7.38     3.68     3.01    15.76    51.14    23.64P    0.09R    0.01  
Newport_County       20   34   +8       9.81    93.20    12.76    66.46     7.76     3.42     1.70     9.20    35.74    13.75P    0.48R    0.13  
Southend             21   34   +7       1.28    57.68     1.22    73.41     7.36    14.53     7.97    32.01    72.49    43.99P    0.03R    0.00  
Rochdale             21   34   +2       3.98    72.00     0.21    70.10     7.54     4.61     3.55    17.45    53.76    25.85P    0.11R    0.04  
Morecambe            22   32   -3       3.27    68.80    -1.02    63.05     7.16    -5.49     0.31     2.96    18.99     6.27P    1.30R    0.36  
Dag_&_Red            21   30   +3       1.56    59.67     3.36    63.17     7.35     1.47     0.47     3.66    21.36     7.53P    1.26R    0.34  
Cheltenham           22   30   -2      -0.54    47.27    -2.68    63.62     7.24    -0.79     0.44     3.74    22.09     8.33P    1.06R    0.33  
Exeter               21   29   -2      -0.30    48.80    -2.70    64.51     7.48    -0.05     0.74     5.27    26.43    10.26P    1.03R    0.33  
Wycombe              21   27   +1      -1.92    39.17     0.74    61.93     7.46     1.99     0.30     2.71    17.80     6.47P    2.01R    0.71  
Hartlepool           21   27   +1      -4.53    25.33    -3.12    63.75     7.49     4.90     0.64     4.64    24.56    10.63P    1.10R    0.35  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   27   -1       3.25    70.03     4.34    58.00     7.46    -7.76     0.09     0.89     7.31     2.06P    6.64R    2.65  
Plymouth             21   26   -6       0.27    52.28    -2.52    56.17     7.01   -10.72     0.02     0.27     3.54     0.95P    8.87R    3.51  
Accrington_Stanley   21   23   -6      -1.99    38.69    -0.67    52.33     7.12   -13.06     0.00     0.07     1.32     0.31P   21.70R   10.36  
Bristol_Rovers       21   22   -3      -4.68    24.39    -0.34    54.27     7.33    -5.65     0.02     0.20     2.81     0.79P   14.36R    6.40  
Mansfield            21   22   -6      -1.96    39.31     1.17    50.57     7.32   -14.37     0.00     0.04     0.95     0.22P   30.32R   16.08  
Portsmouth           21   22   -9      -9.16     9.59   -12.52    59.12     7.68    -4.86     0.12     1.26    10.01     3.91P    5.55R    2.30  
York                 21   21   -4      -3.89    27.97     1.26    51.25     7.12    -9.36     0.00     0.04     1.00     0.24P   25.35R   12.87  
Torquay              21   21  -11      -4.71    24.05    -6.64    52.23     7.25   -15.28     0.00     0.07     1.33     0.34P   22.80R   11.30  
Bury                 21   20   -4      -9.74     7.45    -5.49    54.88     7.60    -2.93     0.03     0.35     3.80     1.30P   13.08R    6.00  
Northampton          21   18  -12      -7.45    12.61    -7.48    48.24     7.23   -17.61     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.09P   42.79R   25.93  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 December 2013, Aldershot 6 0 Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    22   48  +26      10.69    95.05    15.16    89.29     6.92    38.91    41.90    97.02    56.37P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            23   47  +26       4.95    76.55     8.93    88.84     6.68    42.33    40.30    96.99    57.86P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          21   40  +13       3.46    70.02     1.30    82.68     7.10    26.29    11.13    82.97    30.66P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    24   40   -1       9.29    90.33     3.42    68.15     6.58    -5.09     0.07    10.50     1.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet           23   39  +11      -1.30    42.04    -2.55    77.77     6.89    22.14     3.31    61.52    19.67P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    23   39   +9      -0.73    45.63    -4.18    77.06     6.81    19.28     2.48    56.63    16.29P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         23   39   +3       8.72    89.82     5.03    67.78     6.71    -1.20     0.08    10.24     1.39P    0.03R    0.00  
Halifax          24   37   +7       4.02    70.76     7.50    66.27     6.97     4.94     0.07     8.40     1.29P    0.09R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.17    73.05     7.02    68.26     6.93     8.39     0.13    13.15     2.24P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead        22   35   +4       4.76    76.31     4.15    69.64     7.02     6.64     0.19    17.60     2.92P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        22   34   +2       5.65    79.60     5.08    63.19     7.24    -4.20     0.02     4.02     0.58P    0.47R    0.00  
Welling          22   31   +3       3.42    69.44     7.28    64.92     7.32     4.40     0.04     6.72     1.09P    0.31R    0.00  
Forest_Green     22   30   +5      -3.29    31.33    -0.03    66.27     7.13    10.08     0.06     9.04     1.98P    0.16R    0.00  
Wrexham          22   29   +2      -7.11    14.38    -7.51    69.19     7.00    13.25     0.21    16.82     4.49P    0.04R    0.00  
Macclesfield     22   29   -2      -1.72    40.24    -2.60    60.92     7.00    -3.57     0.01     1.87     0.32P    0.94R    0.00  
Woking           23   29   -4       0.02    50.65     0.72    55.85     6.71   -12.33     0.00     0.26     0.03P    4.35R    0.00  
Hereford         23   28   -2      -6.15    18.96    -5.93    59.64     6.73    -1.78     0.01     1.11     0.21P    1.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     22   27   -3      -1.13    43.72     0.15    58.28     6.96    -5.55     0.00     0.68     0.10P    2.05R    0.00  
Aldershot        22   22   +5      -5.26    22.06    -6.14    63.26     7.14    18.10     0.01     4.44     1.32P    0.45R    0.00  
Southport        22   22  -16      -1.47    42.18    -4.65    49.70     6.72   -25.19     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.59R    0.09  
Chester          23   20  -15      -2.23    38.20    -0.39    43.87     6.64   -27.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.15R    0.70  
Tamworth         21   20  -18      -0.38    48.79    -4.32    47.11     6.93   -29.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.28R    0.44  
Dartford         25   18  -25      -8.44    10.56   -11.68    40.40     6.15   -35.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.05R    1.85  
Hyde_United      22    3  -38     -15.38     0.12   -15.73    22.11     6.17   -63.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   96.92  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10