Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 20 December 2013 at 22:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Aston_Villa 0 3 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          16   35  +16       4.17    78.08     1.96    76.70     6.47    34.98    23.28    48.21    68.42    83.14    97.86     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        16   33  +21       1.82    62.58     5.70    73.83     6.54    37.89    13.55    31.84    52.75    71.75    95.47     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   33  +14       1.80    62.57    -1.23    73.92     6.54    30.81    12.61    31.19    51.46    70.58    95.23     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   32  +29      -2.65    29.19     7.28    79.60     5.93    60.29    45.48    70.88    85.51    93.75    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   31  +12       4.23    77.82     5.13    68.63     6.55    23.22     2.82     9.28    20.42    37.43    82.23     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        16   27   -1       6.87    89.82     3.01    55.06     6.59    -5.39     0.01     0.08     0.37     1.21     9.51     0.15R    0.01  
Tottenham        16   27   -6       3.18    71.70    -8.28    60.41     6.62    -1.52     0.12     0.63     2.20     5.67    29.46     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          16   25   +6      -4.97    18.04    -6.73    68.10     6.33    26.97     2.13     7.84    18.66    35.71    81.63     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      16   24   +5       2.81    70.53     7.09    53.00     6.64     2.79     0.00     0.05     0.19     0.65     6.57     0.29R    0.02  
Swansea          16   20   +1      -1.29    41.28     2.57    48.05     6.43    -2.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     1.34     1.96R    0.15  
Aston_Villa      16   19   -5       1.22    60.07     2.00    45.69     6.36   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.46     4.89R    0.62  
Hull             16   19   -6       3.15    74.54     4.00    40.04     6.18   -19.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    21.39R    3.56  
Stoke            16   18   -5      -0.60    46.67     0.21    43.78     6.37   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     7.90R    1.03  
Norwich          16   18  -14       1.34    61.16    -3.79    40.83     6.27   -26.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    20.12R    3.61  
Cardiff          16   17  -10       1.15    59.98    -0.85    39.19     6.19   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    26.66R    5.23  
West_Brom        16   15   -5      -4.80    18.48    -0.76    43.18     6.55    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23    10.07R    1.56  
West_Ham         16   14   -6      -5.38    16.09    -1.92    38.93     6.26   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    25.62R    4.99  
Crystal_Palace   16   13  -13      -0.55    47.44     1.29    30.74     5.81   -34.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.52R   42.69  
Fulham           16   13  -15      -4.85    18.33    -7.71    37.74     6.35   -25.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.21R    8.39  
Sunderland       16    9  -18      -6.94     8.74    -8.97    32.61     6.07   -30.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.22R   28.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Wigan 3 2 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR             20   42  +14       7.71    88.80     4.14    85.46     7.54    25.26    37.02    58.58    93.28    68.75P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         20   40  +17       7.54    87.87     9.40    81.85     7.50    26.29    19.97    40.36    86.32    51.96P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       20   39  +10       5.31    79.25     0.56    81.07     7.52    19.74    17.19    34.76    82.84    47.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           20   37  +16       5.83    80.86    10.29    79.48     7.63    26.70    13.23    29.27    78.87    41.06P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         20   34   +7       1.09    56.40    -1.36    75.92     7.80    16.55     6.04    15.38    61.27    28.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    20   33   +9       3.99    72.93     6.59    71.35     7.63    13.11     1.89     5.51    38.31    12.39P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   32   +7       2.20    63.38     3.33    69.51     7.51     9.95     0.98     3.37    28.74     8.91P    0.04R    0.00  
Brighton        20   31   +7      -0.42    47.41     0.98    72.06     7.40    15.07     1.92     5.98    41.78    15.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       20   31   +0       2.14    63.16    -2.16    67.32     7.46     1.24     0.48     1.72    18.74     5.24P    0.13R    0.01  
Ipswich         20   30   +6       3.14    69.10     6.70    66.44     7.62     7.22     0.37     1.42    17.24     4.47P    0.21R    0.01  
Blackburn       20   27   +1      -1.13    43.38    -0.23    64.48     7.57     3.87     0.18     0.79    11.57     3.25P    0.54R    0.03  
Huddersfield    20   26   +1       0.90    56.35     4.32    58.64     7.41    -3.43     0.01     0.10     2.67     0.56P    2.98R    0.27  
Watford         20   25   +2      -5.60    19.75    -2.90    64.53     7.64     7.90     0.21     0.90    12.48     3.89P    0.50R    0.03  
Wigan           19   25   +0      -4.72    23.62    -5.47    65.93     7.94     6.06     0.45     1.57    16.70     5.69P    0.37R    0.02  
Birmingham      20   23   +0      -5.97    18.10    -2.28    59.77     7.59     1.85     0.03     0.15     4.18     1.17P    2.31R    0.21  
Bolton          20   22   -4      -6.59    15.35    -5.80    59.61     7.57    -0.96     0.03     0.12     3.58     0.98P    2.52R    0.27  
Bournemouth     20   22  -14       2.18    64.99    -1.22    49.01     7.42   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   30.13R    7.18  
Millwall        20   21  -15      -1.30    42.99    -7.07    50.81     7.32   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   21.13R    4.08  
Middlesbrough   20   20   -1      -6.69    15.19     0.18    54.14     7.57    -3.46     0.01     0.02     0.81     0.22P    9.96R    1.53  
Doncaster       20   20  -17       0.98    58.11    -4.22    45.06     7.16   -33.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    51.24R   16.17  
Charlton        20   18   -9      -7.58    11.41    -6.63    51.02     7.30   -12.38     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   18.39R    3.31  
Sheff_Wed       19   17   -8      -5.09    20.01    -2.10    49.45     7.59   -14.57     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   25.92R    5.61  
Yeovil          20   17  -10      -2.24    37.19     2.34    43.37     7.20   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    58.02R   21.17  
Barnsley        20   15  -19      -5.13    20.16    -7.38    40.18     7.08   -35.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.56R   40.11  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 20 December 2013, Tranmere 1 2 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   20   44  +25      10.22    94.36    15.43    87.93     7.63    37.54    27.27    57.93    97.03    67.70P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   20   43  +19       4.90    77.32     3.24    92.50     7.56    39.82    54.82    78.89    99.13    85.92P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       20   40  +11       7.35    87.19     3.30    80.97     7.65    18.88     5.78    19.70    83.19    34.87P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         20   38  +11       7.52    87.53     6.46    77.93     7.64    17.37     2.84    10.92    72.63    24.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    20   36  +10       1.17    56.26    -1.19    81.83     7.75    25.65     7.71    24.29    86.17    43.16P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       20   34   +9       7.43    86.34    10.62    67.98     7.91     6.06     0.20     1.11    24.12     4.84P    0.52R    0.01  
Bradford        20   30  +11       3.90    72.14    12.97    62.66     7.67     6.35     0.02     0.17     9.15     1.64P    2.32R    0.11  
Swindon         20   30   +9      -4.34    25.01    -1.52    74.01     7.67    21.52     1.03     4.98    55.26    20.03P    0.05R    0.00  
Walsall         20   30   +3       2.27    64.06     2.39    67.48     7.65     5.81     0.09     0.62    21.33     4.75P    0.56R    0.01  
Port_Vale       20   30   +0       4.75    76.18     3.74    62.74     7.88    -5.14     0.04     0.21     8.94     1.63P    2.80R    0.15  
Coventry        20   25   +7       3.33    68.93     0.46    64.36     7.85    12.40     0.04     0.30    13.91     3.58P    1.64R    0.08  
MK_Dons         19   25   +1      -4.67    23.38    -4.45    67.25     7.98     8.84     0.15     0.84    22.29     6.38P    0.78R    0.03  
Gillingham      22   25   -9      -0.21    49.90    -1.01    51.66     7.13   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P   30.00R    4.02  
Carlisle        20   24  -10       1.02    57.39    -2.66    52.69     7.41   -21.60     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.06P   26.73R    3.75  
Crawley_Town    20   23   -5      -1.89    39.17    -1.18    53.99     7.42   -12.03     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.13P   20.05R    2.22  
Shrewsbury      20   22   -2      -2.80    33.64     1.72    54.82     7.41    -5.84     0.00     0.01     0.97     0.17P   16.39R    1.92  
Oldham          19   22   -3      -0.73    46.13     1.83    54.54     7.67    -9.63     0.00     0.01     1.06     0.18P   18.54R    2.23  
Colchester      20   21   -9      -1.00    44.77    -0.74    51.64     7.43   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P   30.66R    5.00  
Sheff_Utd       20   20   -9      -8.28     9.87   -10.40    57.92     7.56    -5.50     0.00     0.02     2.24     0.50P    8.86R    0.77  
Tranmere        21   20  -15      -5.22    21.81    -9.42    50.22     7.24   -21.15     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   37.94R    6.21  
Stevenage       20   18  -13      -4.45    24.62    -5.31    47.84     7.42   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   50.51R   11.99  
Notts_County    21   17   -9     -10.69     5.12    -7.21    50.21     7.47   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   35.69R    6.48  
Crewe           20   17  -25      -1.47    42.09   -10.01    40.77     7.03   -44.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.56R   49.15  
Bristol_City    20   15   -7     -12.68     2.76    -7.05    51.22     7.94    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.08P   31.42R    5.86  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 20 December 2013, Exeter 0 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         21   39  +14       3.31    69.04     4.11    80.84     7.33    24.98    35.39    70.75    93.98    78.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           20   37  +16       5.06    77.87     9.40    77.89     7.47    23.71    21.73    55.68    87.70    64.61P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       20   35   +9       6.10    82.26     6.77    72.71     7.70    12.04     7.12    27.73    66.52    36.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County       20   34   +8       9.81    92.96    12.82    66.64     7.77     3.68     1.67     9.04    35.62    13.54P    0.41R    0.13  
Southend             21   34   +7       1.29    57.75     1.23    73.37     7.37    14.51     7.63    30.66    71.00    42.34P    0.02R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           20   34   +5       1.58    59.22    -2.37    76.35     7.85    14.90    16.12    45.58    80.68    56.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        20   34   +3       6.32    83.34     2.55    69.46     7.57     2.77     2.89    14.76    48.46    21.99P    0.14R    0.04  
Rochdale             21   34   +2       3.83    71.66     0.01    70.29     7.47     4.87     3.60    17.17    53.45    25.62P    0.08R    0.02  
Morecambe            21   32   -1       3.85    72.15    -0.13    64.19     7.39    -3.87     0.57     4.34    22.95     8.13P    0.92R    0.24  
Dag_&_Red            20   30   +4       2.82    67.32     4.27    65.25     7.58     3.45     1.03     6.31    29.12    11.16P    0.59R    0.20  
Exeter               21   29   -2      -0.16    49.34    -2.51    64.44     7.43    -0.20     0.63     4.76    24.76     9.54P    0.86R    0.23  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   27   -1       3.19    69.81     4.28    58.16     7.40    -7.59     0.07     0.74     6.95     1.84P    5.60R    2.12  
Cheltenham           21   27   -4      -1.79    40.20    -4.12    61.04     7.44    -4.21     0.19     1.85    13.28     4.70P    2.57R    0.86  
Hartlepool           20   26   +1      -3.95    27.52    -2.77    64.35     7.75     5.23     0.83     5.59    26.44    11.73P    0.95R    0.29  
Wycombe              20   24   -2      -2.68    34.46    -1.01    59.00     7.55    -2.84     0.11     1.17     9.25     3.15P    4.62R    1.71  
Plymouth             20   23   -7      -1.14    43.70    -3.23    54.16     7.18   -12.20     0.01     0.14     2.10     0.58P   14.04R    6.01  
Mansfield            20   22   -5      -0.45    48.31     2.25    52.23     7.58   -12.82     0.02     0.14     1.68     0.41P   22.07R   11.35  
Portsmouth           20   22   -7      -8.44    10.85   -11.48    61.24     7.87    -1.74     0.30     2.70    15.43     6.61P    3.10R    1.19  
Bury                 20   20   -3      -8.64     9.62    -4.88    56.71     7.75    -1.25     0.05     0.64     5.92     2.18P    8.52R    3.72  
York                 20   20   -4      -3.68    28.49     1.19    51.30     7.33    -9.94     0.01     0.05     1.00     0.25P   24.02R   12.23  
Accrington_Stanley   20   20   -7      -3.51    29.74    -1.54    50.28     7.30   -14.62     0.00     0.03     0.72     0.19P   29.84R   16.30  
Bristol_Rovers       20   19   -5      -5.80    18.38    -1.51    51.87     7.50    -8.81     0.01     0.08     1.41     0.39P   22.40R   11.13  
Northampton          20   18   -9      -6.97    13.67    -5.84    50.80     7.45   -12.82     0.00     0.04     0.88     0.21P   27.24R   14.40  
Torquay              20   18  -12      -6.30    16.23    -7.50    49.98     7.44   -17.24     0.00     0.04     0.71     0.17P   31.97R   17.84  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 19 December 2013, Grimsby 3 1 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    21   48  +27      11.74    96.89    15.74    90.83     7.18    40.21    52.06    97.68    64.06P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            22   44  +24       4.31    74.06     8.58    87.49     6.92    40.56    30.69    94.63    50.43P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          21   40  +13       3.33    69.57     1.18    82.69     7.04    26.31    10.53    81.88    30.35P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    23   39   +9      -0.56    46.26    -3.81    77.11     6.81    19.43     2.51    55.10    15.89P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         22   39   +5       9.75    92.59     6.50    70.54     6.94     2.95     0.33    18.55     2.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    23   37   -2       8.18    87.94     3.18    67.21     6.81    -4.91     0.05     8.41     1.04P    0.06R    0.00  
Barnet           22   36  +10      -2.41    35.71    -2.79    76.87     7.12    22.27     2.77    54.53    17.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.11    73.09     6.92    68.18     6.97     8.31     0.12    12.41     2.02P    0.05R    0.00  
Gateshead        21   35   +6       5.25    78.68     4.62    70.77     7.17     8.31     0.35    21.24     3.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Halifax          23   34   +6       2.76    65.21     7.17    64.36     7.17     3.39     0.04     5.42     0.89P    0.26R    0.00  
Salisbury        21   33   +2       6.39    83.29     5.64    64.29     7.50    -3.10     0.06     5.67     0.84P    0.43R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.14    37.25     0.66    67.90     7.39    11.53     0.15    13.49     2.91P    0.09R    0.00  
Welling          21   30   +3       3.72    71.17     7.23    65.31     7.61     4.47     0.07     7.47     1.33P    0.38R    0.00  
Macclesfield     22   29   -2      -1.70    40.29    -2.65    60.94     7.00    -3.62     0.00     1.70     0.29P    0.97R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.78    14.94    -7.63    69.66     7.21    13.37     0.25    18.11     4.99P    0.04R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     21   26   -3      -0.76    46.01     0.05    58.54     7.15    -5.51     0.00     0.86     0.14P    2.30R    0.00  
Woking           22   26   -6      -1.44    42.20    -0.98    53.23     6.87   -16.06     0.00     0.08     0.00P    9.89R    0.01  
Hereford         22   25   -3      -7.51    13.46    -6.48    57.77     6.98    -3.14     0.00     0.64     0.13P    2.52R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.61    40.99    -5.53    49.44     6.92   -26.34     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.98R    0.21  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.91    45.37    -1.71    48.98     7.14   -22.69     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.98R    0.31  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.33    25.85    -8.12    60.49     7.41    10.16     0.01     2.11     0.66P    1.50R    0.00  
Chester          22   19  -15      -1.78    40.49    -0.63    43.94     6.83   -27.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.70R    1.08  
Dartford         24   18  -24      -7.46    13.05   -11.55    41.14     6.30   -35.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.94R    2.11  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.64     0.14   -15.58    22.96     6.35   -63.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   96.27  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10