Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 19 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Aston_Villa 0 3 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          16   35  +16       4.18    77.95     1.96    76.77     6.49    35.08    23.79    48.92    69.13    83.48    97.93     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        16   33  +21       1.90    62.96     5.79    73.74     6.54    37.77    13.44    31.77    52.46    71.40    95.43     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   33  +14       1.82    62.73    -1.14    73.85     6.52    30.68    12.62    30.82    51.17    70.56    95.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   32  +29      -2.61    29.71     7.44    79.51     5.98    60.03    45.13    70.31    85.18    93.46    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   31  +12       4.20    77.61     5.14    68.57     6.55    23.09     2.72     9.28    20.59    37.68    82.37     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        16   27   -1       6.93    89.78     3.06    55.02     6.59    -5.44     0.02     0.09     0.37     1.19     9.65     0.14R    0.00  
Tottenham        16   27   -6       3.22    71.92    -8.20    60.29     6.64    -1.66     0.13     0.62     2.12     5.64    29.17     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          16   25   +6      -4.99    17.75    -6.81    68.12     6.35    27.03     2.14     8.14    18.83    35.88    81.72     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      16   24   +5       2.70    69.82     6.95    53.07     6.61     2.88     0.01     0.05     0.14     0.62     6.67     0.28R    0.01  
Swansea          16   20   +1      -1.29    41.43     2.57    48.07     6.45    -2.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.34     1.95R    0.15  
Aston_Villa      16   19   -5       1.26    60.26     2.05    45.59     6.40   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.46     5.22R    0.58  
Hull             16   19   -6       3.13    74.29     4.00    40.07     6.20   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    21.56R    3.65  
Stoke            16   18   -5      -0.58    46.37     0.16    43.84     6.33   -11.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.27     7.66R    0.92  
Norwich          16   18  -14       1.33    61.33    -3.86    40.83     6.34   -26.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    20.29R    3.75  
Cardiff          16   17  -10       1.13    59.91    -0.90    39.23     6.14   -23.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    26.41R    5.24  
West_Brom        16   15   -5      -4.83    18.25    -0.84    43.28     6.60    -8.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22    10.24R    1.50  
West_Ham         16   14   -6      -5.32    16.27    -1.85    38.94     6.30   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    25.77R    5.24  
Crystal_Palace   16   13  -13      -0.63    46.98     1.11    30.89     5.89   -33.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.61R   41.82  
Fulham           16   13  -15      -4.86    18.40    -7.69    37.71     6.28   -25.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.22R    8.45  
Sunderland       16    9  -18      -6.94     8.74    -8.94    32.58     6.11   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.64R   28.69  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Wigan 3 2 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR             20   42  +14       7.68    88.52     4.12    85.53     7.51    25.35    36.95    58.78    93.59    68.94P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         20   40  +17       7.66    88.18     9.60    81.65     7.49    26.01    19.62    39.29    85.56    50.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       20   39  +10       5.39    79.55     0.65    81.03     7.58    19.66    17.24    34.68    82.45    47.23P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           20   37  +16       5.79    80.85    10.22    79.55     7.55    26.79    13.33    29.43    78.94    40.92P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         20   34   +7       0.88    54.97    -1.69    76.22     7.73    16.95     6.38    16.02    62.44    29.08P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    20   33   +9       4.12    73.65     6.77    71.26     7.60    12.95     1.62     5.35    37.64    12.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   32   +7       2.05    62.58     3.13    69.67     7.54    10.21     1.13     3.60    29.31     9.35P    0.04R    0.00  
Brighton        20   31   +7      -0.62    46.25     0.74    72.17     7.40    15.26     1.97     6.22    42.26    15.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       20   31   +0       2.12    62.86    -2.24    67.44     7.46     1.38     0.47     1.69    19.05     5.34P    0.12R    0.00  
Ipswich         20   30   +6       3.17    69.26     6.76    66.28     7.55     6.99     0.38     1.41    16.30     4.37P    0.23R    0.01  
Blackburn       20   27   +1      -1.10    43.59    -0.19    64.53     7.63     3.92     0.19     0.77    11.52     3.24P    0.56R    0.04  
Huddersfield    20   26   +1       0.96    56.66     4.39    58.55     7.38    -3.53     0.01     0.07     2.64     0.54P    2.85R    0.26  
Watford         20   25   +2      -5.57    19.65    -2.84    64.52     7.69     7.90     0.23     0.90    12.35     3.80P    0.52R    0.03  
Wigan           19   25   +0      -4.85    22.92    -5.66    66.09     7.96     6.28     0.44     1.56    17.31     6.06P    0.36R    0.02  
Birmingham      20   23   +0      -5.92    18.09    -2.17    59.70     7.57     1.78     0.02     0.10     3.88     0.98P    2.11R    0.20  
Bolton          20   22   -4      -6.49    15.81    -5.69    59.54     7.58    -1.11     0.02     0.13     3.40     1.00P    2.56R    0.24  
Bournemouth     20   22  -14       2.16    64.98    -1.31    48.95     7.38   -28.26     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   30.06R    6.93  
Millwall        20   21  -15      -1.15    43.73    -6.83    50.61     7.33   -24.56     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   22.00R    4.41  
Middlesbrough   20   20   -1      -6.76    14.52     0.09    54.20     7.56    -3.36     0.00     0.01     0.81     0.20P    9.48R    1.42  
Doncaster       20   20  -17       0.95    57.66    -4.27    45.11     7.13   -33.26     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   50.67R   15.89  
Charlton        20   18   -9      -7.54    11.44    -6.53    50.87     7.32   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   18.88R    3.44  
Sheff_Wed       19   17   -8      -5.15    20.00    -2.17    49.47     7.57   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   25.76R    5.61  
Yeovil          20   17  -10      -2.21    37.49     2.45    43.34     7.18   -24.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   58.30R   21.25  
Barnsley        20   15  -19      -5.08    20.42    -7.33    40.14     7.07   -35.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    75.46R   40.27  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, Bradford 1 1 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   20   44  +25      10.16    94.13    15.39    88.08     7.61    37.79    28.02    58.49    97.26    68.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   20   43  +19       4.90    77.23     3.25    92.47     7.54    39.75    53.65    78.44    99.18    85.74P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       20   40  +11       7.31    86.98     3.25    81.01     7.61    18.99     5.84    19.54    83.37    34.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         20   38  +11       7.35    87.02     6.23    78.13     7.64    17.62     2.90    11.18    73.39    24.53P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    20   36  +10       1.19    56.47    -1.20    81.86     7.83    25.79     8.02    24.26    85.95    43.06P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       20   34   +9       7.41    86.44    10.58    67.91     7.82     6.03     0.18     1.09    23.39     4.62P    0.45R    0.01  
Bradford        20   30  +11       4.01    73.03    13.11    62.55     7.71     6.17     0.02     0.18     9.26     1.61P    2.28R    0.11  
Swindon         20   30   +9      -4.33    24.95    -1.52    73.93     7.69    21.39     1.07     4.72    54.83    19.76P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall         20   30   +3       2.21    63.70     2.28    67.63     7.59     6.02     0.12     0.71    21.42     4.64P    0.44R    0.00  
Port_Vale       20   30   +0       4.60    75.47     3.52    62.86     7.86    -4.91     0.02     0.18     9.03     1.54P    2.76R    0.17  
Coventry        20   25   +7       3.28    68.69     0.36    64.36     7.87    12.46     0.04     0.40    13.89     3.69P    1.50R    0.09  
MK_Dons         19   25   +1      -4.70    23.26    -4.50    67.22     7.95     8.73     0.12     0.79    22.14     6.26P    0.72R    0.02  
Carlisle        20   24  -10       1.15    58.02    -2.43    52.49     7.35   -21.94     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.06P   26.94R    3.57  
Crawley_Town    20   23   -5      -1.95    38.61    -1.29    54.16     7.45   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.13P   19.30R    1.97  
Shrewsbury      20   22   -2      -2.88    33.02     1.60    54.93     7.39    -5.74     0.00     0.01     0.93     0.19P   15.60R    1.74  
Oldham          19   22   -3      -0.80    46.01     1.73    54.60     7.62    -9.49     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.19P   17.71R    2.01  
Gillingham      21   22  -10      -1.42    42.93    -1.31    49.16     7.31   -21.42     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   43.24R    8.25  
Colchester      20   21   -9      -0.94    45.21    -0.63    51.51     7.43   -16.94     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   30.66R    5.09  
Sheff_Utd       20   20   -9      -8.15    10.17   -10.22    57.75     7.60    -5.76     0.00     0.01     2.16     0.50P    9.22R    0.86  
Tranmere        20   20  -14      -3.97    27.45    -8.61    52.30     7.52   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P   27.91R    4.17  
Stevenage       20   18  -13      -4.40    24.53    -5.28    47.87     7.40   -21.72     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   49.88R   11.66  
Notts_County    21   17   -9     -10.65     5.24    -7.14    50.12     7.41   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   35.81R    6.39  
Crewe           20   17  -25      -1.52    41.60   -10.11    40.81     7.00   -44.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.37R   48.10  
Bristol_City    20   15   -7     -12.68     2.53    -7.05    51.20     7.88    -6.41     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.13P   31.14R    5.77  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           20   37  +16       5.02    77.80     9.35    77.82     7.54    23.64    23.04    55.74    87.09    64.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         20   36  +12       2.31    63.81     2.97    78.73     7.53    22.30    26.81    59.96    88.99    69.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       20   35   +9       6.13    82.35     6.80    72.64     7.64    11.96     7.77    28.05    65.47    36.50P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County       20   34   +8       9.74    93.05    12.71    66.77     7.74     3.88     1.84     9.52    35.49    13.90P    0.33R    0.08  
Scunthorpe           20   34   +5       1.65    59.63    -2.24    76.27     7.81    14.72    17.05    45.38    80.01    55.74P    0.02R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        20   34   +3       6.32    83.22     2.58    69.49     7.61     2.82     3.36    15.13    47.91    21.91P    0.14R    0.03  
Southend             20   33   +7       1.93    61.80     1.62    74.14     7.57    15.06    10.45    35.03    73.14    46.06P    0.02R    0.01  
Rochdale             20   33   +2       3.92    72.27    -0.39    70.29     7.74     4.28     4.40    18.17    52.52    26.08P    0.11R    0.02  
Morecambe            21   32   -1       3.79    71.73    -0.19    64.27     7.36    -3.78     0.66     4.46    22.70     8.13P    0.85R    0.27  
Dag_&_Red            20   30   +4       2.99    67.98     4.47    65.09     7.57     3.25     1.12     6.29    28.06    11.07P    0.69R    0.19  
Exeter               20   29   +0       0.51    53.36    -1.52    66.51     7.66     2.85     1.61     8.55    34.05    14.78P    0.48R    0.15  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   27   -1       3.29    69.97     4.47    58.05     7.36    -7.71     0.07     0.77     6.43     1.82P    5.67R    2.23  
Cheltenham           21   27   -4      -1.91    38.99    -4.28    61.11     7.40    -4.13     0.22     1.97    12.74     4.55P    2.52R    0.86  
Hartlepool           20   26   +1      -4.04    27.31    -2.92    64.54     7.74     5.48     1.05     5.87    26.72    12.05P    0.88R    0.28  
Wycombe              20   24   -2      -2.78    33.90    -1.14    59.09     7.57    -2.69     0.12     1.22     9.21     3.05P    4.55R    1.75  
Plymouth             20   23   -7      -1.11    43.89    -3.18    54.11     7.17   -12.30     0.01     0.15     1.89     0.47P   14.17R    5.93  
Mansfield            20   22   -5      -0.58    47.71     2.10    52.39     7.59   -12.66     0.01     0.16     1.68     0.50P   21.37R   10.79  
Portsmouth           20   22   -7      -8.38    10.96   -11.44    61.20     7.92    -1.83     0.32     2.55    15.20     6.43P    3.29R    1.33  
Bury                 20   20   -3      -8.74     9.29    -4.99    56.79     7.80    -1.16     0.07     0.74     6.05     2.27P    8.20R    3.42  
York                 20   20   -4      -3.59    29.00     1.30    51.26     7.36   -10.01     0.01     0.08     1.02     0.28P   24.33R   12.24  
Accrington_Stanley   20   20   -7      -3.35    30.86    -1.30    50.00     7.31   -15.00     0.00     0.03     0.66     0.17P   31.29R   17.05  
Bristol_Rovers       20   19   -5      -5.77    18.37    -1.49    51.92     7.45    -8.72     0.01     0.10     1.33     0.37P   21.58R   10.83  
Northampton          20   18   -9      -6.95    13.18    -5.78    50.74     7.45   -12.90     0.01     0.06     0.89     0.26P   27.10R   14.27  
Torquay              20   18  -12      -6.32    16.04    -7.54    49.92     7.50   -17.37     0.00     0.04     0.75     0.22P   32.39R   18.24  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 19 December 2013, Grimsby 3 1 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    21   48  +27      11.70    97.09    15.70    90.86     7.16    40.25    51.98    97.66    64.18P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            22   44  +24       4.24    73.63     8.45    87.56     6.95    40.62    30.79    94.63    50.33P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          21   40  +13       3.36    69.40     1.17    82.65     7.09    26.29    10.65    81.80    29.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    23   39   +9      -0.68    45.75    -3.99    77.15     6.80    19.46     2.47    55.58    16.10P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         22   39   +5       9.76    92.76     6.51    70.44     6.91     2.89     0.28    18.04     2.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    23   37   -2       8.31    88.32     3.38    67.17     6.77    -5.07     0.06     8.14     0.98P    0.06R    0.00  
Barnet           22   36  +10      -2.45    35.60    -2.88    76.92     7.12    22.40     2.69    55.28    17.70P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.12    73.02     6.88    68.18     6.95     8.33     0.15    12.32     2.22P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead        21   35   +6       5.15    78.48     4.49    70.84     7.21     8.37     0.36    21.52     3.87P    0.02R    0.00  
Halifax          23   34   +6       2.92    66.20     7.43    64.21     7.15     3.14     0.03     5.29     0.79P    0.29R    0.00  
Salisbury        21   33   +2       6.61    83.98     6.00    64.07     7.46    -3.45     0.05     5.39     0.82P    0.54R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.17    37.09     0.54    67.99     7.41    11.57     0.17    13.43     2.93P    0.10R    0.00  
Welling          21   30   +3       3.98    72.84     7.64    65.08     7.55     4.12     0.08     7.20     1.17P    0.36R    0.00  
Macclesfield     22   29   -2      -1.72    40.30    -2.69    60.98     7.05    -3.51     0.00     1.76     0.33P    0.95R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.80    14.79    -7.63    69.62     7.21    13.36     0.24    18.28     4.99P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     21   26   -3      -0.73    46.16     0.08    58.56     7.14    -5.49     0.00     0.86     0.15P    2.46R    0.00  
Woking           22   26   -6      -1.33    42.96    -0.80    53.16     6.82   -16.12     0.00     0.08     0.01P   10.06R    0.02  
Hereford         22   25   -3      -7.69    12.98    -6.73    57.97     6.95    -2.80     0.00     0.62     0.13P    2.53R    0.01  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.48    41.93    -5.27    49.30     6.95   -26.57     0.00     0.01     0.00P   25.55R    0.27  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.89    45.29    -1.73    49.00     7.13   -22.76     0.00     0.02     0.00    27.21R    0.30  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.45    25.21    -8.27    60.52     7.39    10.22     0.00     2.08     0.60P    1.55R    0.00  
Chester          22   19  -15      -1.94    39.82    -0.80    44.17     6.87   -26.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.93R    1.11  
Dartford         24   18  -24      -7.54    12.81   -11.68    41.26     6.34   -35.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.46R    2.16  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.73     0.15   -15.81    23.07     6.36   -63.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.85R   96.12  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10