Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 18 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Aston_Villa 0 3 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          16   35  +16       4.09    77.30     1.79    76.84     6.45    35.28    23.96    49.24    69.44    83.71    98.06     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        16   33  +21       1.85    62.70     5.76    73.76     6.54    37.77    13.41    31.50    51.98    71.17    95.39     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   33  +14       1.87    62.95    -1.10    73.87     6.51    30.68    12.61    30.54    51.09    70.39    95.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   32  +29      -2.63    29.59     7.32    79.51     5.99    60.13    44.79    70.48    85.23    93.40    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   31  +12       4.21    77.68     5.13    68.69     6.63    23.27     2.94     9.58    20.86    37.89    82.38     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        16   27   -1       6.94    89.95     3.09    55.00     6.55    -5.47     0.02     0.10     0.36     1.13     9.29     0.13R    0.00  
Tottenham        16   27   -6       3.12    71.48    -8.36    60.42     6.62    -1.48     0.14     0.64     2.13     5.69    29.60     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          16   25   +6      -5.03    17.65    -6.81    68.12     6.35    27.04     2.12     7.87    18.68    35.81    81.69     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      16   24   +5       2.83    70.68     7.13    52.92     6.62     2.68     0.00     0.04     0.20     0.65     6.32     0.27R    0.01  
Swansea          16   20   +1      -1.18    42.14     2.72    47.93     6.43    -3.22     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.10     1.30     2.15R    0.17  
Aston_Villa      16   19   -5       1.27    60.22     2.10    45.62     6.36   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.49     4.85R    0.59  
Hull             16   19   -6       3.25    74.84     4.19    39.94     6.21   -19.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    22.15R    3.75  
Stoke            16   18   -5      -0.56    46.62     0.21    43.77     6.39   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25     8.29R    1.01  
Norwich          16   18  -14       1.28    60.97    -3.90    40.84     6.34   -26.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    20.18R    3.69  
Cardiff          16   17  -10       1.16    59.95    -0.81    39.16     6.16   -24.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    26.70R    5.43  
West_Brom        16   15   -5      -4.89    18.07    -0.93    43.37     6.59    -8.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25     9.87R    1.40  
West_Ham         16   14   -6      -5.39    15.96    -1.91    38.93     6.25   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    25.88R    4.97  
Crystal_Palace   16   13  -13      -0.58    47.17     1.15    30.84     5.82   -34.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.23R   42.17  
Fulham           16   13  -15      -4.91    18.07    -7.83    37.91     6.32   -24.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    34.04R    8.05  
Sunderland       16    9  -18      -6.94     8.88    -8.96    32.58     6.13   -30.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.26R   28.75  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Wigan 3 2 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR             20   42  +14       7.77    88.91     4.24    85.44     7.53    25.21    36.66    58.56    93.17    68.84P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         20   40  +17       7.51    87.98     9.37    81.88     7.51    26.29    20.36    40.04    86.35    51.63P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       20   39  +10       5.47    80.04     0.78    80.93     7.54    19.52    16.62    34.15    82.32    46.65P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           20   37  +16       5.82    81.08    10.26    79.58     7.57    26.81    13.43    29.43    79.09    41.16P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         20   34   +7       0.87    55.15    -1.72    76.28     7.81    17.07     6.60    16.65    63.01    29.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    20   33   +9       4.08    73.49     6.73    71.16     7.64    12.81     1.64     5.20    37.36    11.93P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   32   +7       2.25    63.74     3.40    69.50     7.53     9.89     1.03     3.19    28.72     8.77P    0.07R    0.00  
Brighton        20   31   +7      -0.60    46.25     0.76    72.20     7.42    15.29     1.98     6.21    42.47    16.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       20   31   +0       2.05    62.34    -2.30    67.41     7.48     1.35     0.45     1.64    19.08     5.35P    0.12R    0.00  
Ipswich         20   30   +6       3.07    68.52     6.62    66.51     7.64     7.25     0.40     1.47    17.49     4.56P    0.24R    0.02  
Blackburn       20   27   +1      -1.05    44.22    -0.10    64.37     7.55     3.72     0.16     0.70    10.85     2.95P    0.53R    0.03  
Huddersfield    20   26   +1       1.06    57.46     4.53    58.49     7.40    -3.65     0.02     0.09     2.47     0.55P    3.02R    0.32  
Watford         20   25   +2      -5.63    19.84    -2.92    64.50     7.72     7.79     0.25     0.92    12.50     3.80P    0.59R    0.02  
Wigan           19   25   +0      -4.64    23.77    -5.35    65.78     7.92     5.91     0.36     1.45    16.14     5.49P    0.42R    0.02  
Birmingham      20   23   +0      -5.92    18.15    -2.22    59.84     7.66     1.95     0.03     0.15     4.08     1.07P    2.23R    0.20  
Bolton          20   22   -4      -6.49    15.80    -5.70    59.52     7.57    -1.11     0.03     0.13     3.48     1.03P    2.56R    0.28  
Bournemouth     20   22  -14       2.23    65.01    -1.20    48.90     7.39   -28.41     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   30.68R    7.39  
Millwall        20   21  -15      -1.15    43.70    -6.83    50.67     7.34   -24.46     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   21.95R    4.39  
Middlesbrough   20   20   -1      -6.83    14.35     0.03    54.20     7.58    -3.33     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.17P    9.69R    1.44  
Doncaster       20   20  -17       1.00    58.08    -4.17    44.94     7.13   -33.55     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   52.00R   16.82  
Charlton        20   18   -9      -7.54    11.54    -6.57    50.96     7.33   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   18.66R    3.48  
Sheff_Wed       19   17   -8      -5.26    19.45    -2.34    49.65     7.59   -14.25     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.03P   24.79R    5.41  
Yeovil          20   17  -10      -2.23    37.38     2.38    43.39     7.19   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.87R   21.22  
Barnsley        20   15  -19      -5.29    19.58    -7.65    40.42     7.06   -35.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.55R   38.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, Bradford 1 1 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   20   44  +25      10.17    94.16    15.37    88.15     7.62    37.91    28.49    59.28    97.23    68.80P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   20   43  +19       5.08    77.92     3.47    92.28     7.56    39.44    53.32    77.76    99.09    84.91P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       20   40  +11       7.35    87.16     3.32    80.99     7.53    18.93     5.94    19.47    83.25    35.02P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         20   38  +11       7.47    87.49     6.37    77.95     7.61    17.38     2.92    11.17    72.75    24.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    20   36  +10       1.29    56.94    -1.04    81.60     7.82    25.40     7.66    23.72    85.46    42.49P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       20   34   +9       7.32    86.29    10.43    67.96     7.86     6.09     0.19     1.02    23.54     4.57P    0.46R    0.01  
Bradford        20   30  +11       3.83    72.06    12.87    62.83     7.71     6.56     0.02     0.20     9.71     1.85P    2.14R    0.09  
Swindon         20   30   +9      -4.34    25.28    -1.54    73.99     7.72    21.51     1.10     5.14    54.91    19.85P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall         20   30   +3       2.16    63.39     2.20    67.61     7.62     6.02     0.11     0.67    21.55     5.04P    0.48R    0.02  
Port_Vale       20   30   +0       4.70    76.13     3.66    62.73     7.81    -5.16     0.03     0.15     8.65     1.60P    2.79R    0.15  
Coventry        20   25   +7       3.24    68.30     0.30    64.55     7.85    12.72     0.07     0.36    14.23     3.69P    1.52R    0.09  
MK_Dons         19   25   +1      -4.76    23.04    -4.62    67.43     8.00     9.08     0.15     1.02    22.82     6.63P    0.66R    0.03  
Carlisle        20   24  -10       1.11    57.80    -2.50    52.55     7.35   -21.80     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.05P   26.54R    3.72  
Crawley_Town    20   23   -5      -1.86    39.68    -1.12    53.96     7.39   -12.07     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.12P   19.66R    2.28  
Shrewsbury      20   22   -2      -2.81    33.58     1.65    54.87     7.42    -5.85     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.16P   15.97R    1.73  
Oldham          19   22   -3      -0.73    46.10     1.86    54.47     7.66    -9.70     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.19P   18.24R    2.21  
Gillingham      21   22  -10      -1.48    42.40    -1.40    49.23     7.28   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   42.79R    8.10  
Colchester      20   21   -9      -0.91    45.59    -0.63    51.52     7.43   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   30.68R    4.94  
Sheff_Utd       20   20   -9      -8.25     9.94   -10.34    57.92     7.63    -5.55     0.00     0.01     2.33     0.56P    8.88R    0.73  
Tranmere        20   20  -14      -4.04    26.96    -8.70    52.30     7.53   -19.15     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.08P   27.80R    4.07  
Stevenage       20   18  -13      -4.40    24.87    -5.25    47.82     7.37   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   50.30R   11.61  
Notts_County    21   17   -9     -10.75     4.94    -7.28    50.23     7.49   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P   35.27R    6.51  
Crewe           20   17  -25      -1.52    41.65   -10.13    40.86     6.95   -44.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.48R   47.82  
Bristol_City    20   15   -7     -12.62     2.72    -6.97    51.13     7.89    -6.61     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.12P   31.30R    5.91  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           20   37  +16       4.98    77.57     9.28    77.95     7.55    23.79    24.00    56.22    87.28    64.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         20   36  +12       2.29    63.52     2.96    78.77     7.55    22.33    26.61    60.00    88.90    69.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       20   35   +9       6.10    82.29     6.77    72.68     7.63    11.97     7.67    28.03    65.91    36.68P    0.04R    0.01  
Newport_County       20   34   +8       9.60    92.73    12.51    66.98     7.78     4.16     2.04    10.06    36.69    14.54P    0.34R    0.10  
Scunthorpe           20   34   +5       1.85    60.86    -1.94    76.06     7.85    14.47    16.47    44.65    79.36    54.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        20   34   +3       6.28    83.09     2.51    69.52     7.54     2.85     3.33    15.05    48.14    22.10P    0.15R    0.02  
Southend             20   33   +7       1.89    61.71     1.58    74.09     7.57    14.99    10.29    35.04    72.82    45.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Rochdale             20   33   +2       3.95    72.70    -0.36    70.28     7.70     4.30     4.38    18.09    52.40    25.97P    0.12R    0.03  
Morecambe            21   32   -1       3.92    72.44    -0.07    64.18     7.35    -3.89     0.66     4.47    22.13     8.21P    0.81R    0.26  
Dag_&_Red            20   30   +4       2.87    67.54     4.34    65.16     7.57     3.33     1.04     6.38    28.14    11.16P    0.68R    0.18  
Exeter               20   29   +0       0.59    53.91    -1.39    66.41     7.73     2.72     1.67     8.55    33.92    14.77P    0.57R    0.19  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   27   -1       3.18    69.59     4.32    58.20     7.43    -7.53     0.09     0.86     6.90     1.95P    5.62R    2.08  
Cheltenham           21   27   -4      -1.87    39.47    -4.25    61.04     7.40    -4.27     0.21     1.86    12.76     4.38P    2.50R    0.89  
Hartlepool           20   26   +1      -3.96    27.62    -2.80    64.47     7.72     5.38     1.01     5.75    26.38    11.63P    0.94R    0.31  
Wycombe              20   24   -2      -2.72    34.01    -1.09    59.08     7.55    -2.73     0.13     1.28     9.13     3.16P    4.43R    1.70  
Plymouth             20   23   -7      -1.03    44.47    -3.07    53.99     7.14   -12.45     0.01     0.11     1.87     0.49P   14.18R    6.27  
Mansfield            20   22   -5      -0.46    48.43     2.24    52.28     7.57   -12.82     0.00     0.13     1.65     0.40P   21.88R   10.81  
Portsmouth           20   22   -7      -8.43    10.94   -11.50    61.16     7.93    -1.88     0.34     2.52    14.97     6.46P    3.36R    1.31  
Bury                 20   20   -3      -8.75     9.23    -4.94    56.82     7.76    -1.06     0.07     0.68     6.06     2.22P    8.03R    3.49  
York                 20   20   -4      -3.68    28.57     1.14    51.32     7.38    -9.88     0.00     0.07     1.10     0.29P   24.26R   12.30  
Accrington_Stanley   20   20   -7      -3.56    29.26    -1.61    50.21     7.31   -14.66     0.00     0.03     0.65     0.17P   30.21R   16.33  
Bristol_Rovers       20   19   -5      -5.75    18.53    -1.49    51.89     7.45    -8.81     0.00     0.08     1.34     0.35P   22.00R   10.94  
Northampton          20   18   -9      -6.97    13.32    -5.77    50.76     7.45   -12.86     0.00     0.04     0.87     0.23P   27.17R   14.35  
Torquay              20   18  -12      -6.18    16.68    -7.35    49.84     7.48   -17.45     0.00     0.04     0.63     0.18P   32.68R   18.43  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, Dartford 1 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    21   48  +27      11.67    96.88    15.58    90.88     7.15    40.28    52.52    97.69    64.28P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            22   44  +24       4.16    73.27     8.40    87.65     6.86    40.69    31.57    94.85    50.94P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    22   39  +11      -0.19    48.33    -3.37    78.79     6.96    21.87     4.33    64.27    20.38P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         22   39   +5       9.79    92.82     6.61    70.44     6.92     2.82     0.29    18.21     2.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          20   37  +11       2.53    65.32     0.41    80.95     7.28    24.03     7.55    74.25    25.65P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    23   37   -2       8.16    88.16     3.11    67.36     6.83    -4.77     0.07     8.88     1.07P    0.06R    0.00  
Barnet           22   36  +10      -2.43    35.72    -2.81    76.85     7.13    22.33     2.58    54.18    17.44P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.20    73.30     7.01    68.10     6.95     8.17     0.15    11.99     2.08P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead        21   35   +6       5.25    78.70     4.65    70.72     7.22     8.23     0.38    21.15     3.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Halifax          23   34   +6       2.76    65.13     7.18    64.34     7.22     3.37     0.04     5.54     0.85P    0.32R    0.00  
Salisbury        21   33   +2       6.47    83.46     5.77    64.12     7.49    -3.37     0.04     5.13     0.73P    0.48R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.17    37.05     0.52    67.95     7.43    11.55     0.17    13.49     2.98P    0.10R    0.00  
Welling          21   30   +3       3.87    71.98     7.46    65.12     7.65     4.25     0.07     7.19     1.19P    0.48R    0.00  
Macclesfield     22   29   -2      -1.58    40.98    -2.44    60.84     7.04    -3.73     0.01     1.79     0.31P    1.07R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.61    15.38    -7.39    69.50     7.26    13.15     0.23    17.79     4.75P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     21   26   -3      -0.75    45.92     0.04    58.64     7.18    -5.35     0.00     0.86     0.15P    2.32R    0.00  
Woking           22   26   -6      -1.45    42.22    -1.01    53.24     6.85   -15.96     0.00     0.08     0.01P    9.73R    0.01  
Hereford         22   25   -3      -7.57    13.32    -6.59    57.80     7.00    -3.06     0.00     0.63     0.13P    2.58R    0.01  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.38    42.52    -5.13    49.26     6.99   -26.59     0.00     0.02     0.00    25.55R    0.19  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.94    45.11    -1.86    49.06     7.14   -22.59     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.13R    0.29  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.54    24.87    -8.39    60.66     7.36    10.41     0.00     2.00     0.61P    1.36R    0.00  
Chester          22   19  -15      -1.78    40.62    -0.60    43.97     6.86   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.52R    1.15  
Dartford         24   18  -24      -7.44    12.98   -11.57    41.13     6.32   -35.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.34R    2.12  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.62     0.15   -15.58    22.98     6.38   -63.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.86R   96.23  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10