Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 17 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Aston_Villa 0 3 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          16   35  +16       4.11    77.60     1.82    76.81     6.47    35.17    23.91    49.03    69.22    83.88    98.10     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        16   33  +21       1.82    62.70     5.67    73.81     6.55    37.93    13.60    31.73    52.59    71.73    95.41     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   33  +14       1.87    62.93    -1.06    73.83     6.57    30.62    12.77    30.78    50.87    70.17    95.09     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   32  +29      -2.65    29.41     7.36    79.58     5.91    60.22    44.98    71.02    85.81    93.80    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   31  +12       4.31    78.44     5.34    68.51     6.55    22.98     2.54     8.77    19.85    36.86    82.20     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        16   27   -1       6.97    89.86     3.08    54.96     6.58    -5.55     0.02     0.08     0.35     1.13     9.36     0.14R    0.01  
Tottenham        16   27   -6       3.20    71.97    -8.24    60.27     6.60    -1.69     0.14     0.59     2.03     5.62    28.96     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          16   25   +6      -4.99    17.78    -6.81    68.15     6.36    27.07     2.04     7.95    19.08    36.04    82.22     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      16   24   +5       2.78    70.42     7.10    52.98     6.62     2.78     0.00     0.04     0.17     0.61     6.44     0.31R    0.01  
Swansea          16   20   +1      -1.21    42.04     2.66    47.96     6.46    -3.14     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     1.45     2.09R    0.17  
Aston_Villa      16   19   -5       1.28    60.51     2.03    45.68     6.36   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.45     4.91R    0.53  
Hull             16   19   -6       3.17    74.53     4.05    40.00     6.23   -19.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    22.03R    3.70  
Stoke            16   18   -5      -0.63    46.05     0.17    43.87     6.38   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29     7.69R    0.91  
Norwich          16   18  -14       1.27    60.79    -3.95    40.89     6.30   -26.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    19.99R    3.57  
Cardiff          16   17  -10       1.09    59.65    -0.93    39.25     6.17   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    26.11R    5.18  
West_Brom        16   15   -5      -4.91    17.77    -0.94    43.43     6.60    -8.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.27     9.77R    1.44  
West_Ham         16   14   -6      -5.40    15.62    -1.98    38.90     6.23   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    25.80R    5.07  
Crystal_Palace   16   13  -13      -0.54    47.57     1.26    30.82     5.85   -34.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.50R   42.50  
Fulham           16   13  -15      -4.90    18.10    -7.79    37.78     6.31   -25.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.95R    8.23  
Sunderland       16    9  -18      -6.90     8.79    -8.85    32.54     6.10   -30.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.71R   28.69  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Wigan 3 2 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR             20   42  +14       7.58    88.29     3.99    85.58     7.54    25.41    37.37    58.93    93.49    69.13P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         20   40  +17       7.54    88.11     9.43    81.87     7.53    26.27    20.22    40.20    86.20    52.13P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       20   39  +10       5.33    79.13     0.54    81.11     7.56    19.79    16.90    34.96    82.90    47.56P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           20   37  +16       5.86    80.81    10.32    79.50     7.63    26.69    13.11    29.15    78.62    40.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading         20   34   +7       1.12    56.52    -1.32    75.95     7.72    16.56     5.97    15.31    61.22    27.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    20   33   +9       4.11    73.67     6.76    71.23     7.63    12.87     1.63     5.26    37.44    12.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   32   +7       2.17    63.27     3.27    69.58     7.54    10.03     1.02     3.38    29.12     9.18P    0.05R    0.00  
Brighton        20   31   +7      -0.67    45.69     0.67    72.33     7.43    15.45     2.06     6.44    43.27    16.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       20   31   +0       2.20    63.15    -2.11    67.29     7.50     1.15     0.47     1.70    18.90     5.21P    0.15R    0.01  
Ipswich         20   30   +6       3.11    68.83     6.66    66.41     7.53     7.17     0.38     1.37    16.91     4.49P    0.18R    0.01  
Blackburn       20   27   +1      -1.10    43.58    -0.18    64.46     7.54     3.85     0.18     0.69    11.15     2.92P    0.51R    0.04  
Huddersfield    20   26   +1       0.97    57.03     4.36    58.66     7.43    -3.41     0.02     0.10     2.62     0.56P    2.96R    0.27  
Watford         20   25   +2      -5.59    19.66    -2.85    64.52     7.68     7.89     0.22     0.82    12.48     3.80P    0.52R    0.03  
Wigan           19   25   +0      -4.69    23.56    -5.40    65.87     7.96     5.94     0.39     1.42    16.67     5.68P    0.41R    0.02  
Birmingham      20   23   +0      -5.95    18.14    -2.21    59.76     7.62     1.84     0.03     0.14     4.07     1.13P    2.25R    0.22  
Bolton          20   22   -4      -6.51    15.82    -5.71    59.59     7.56    -1.03     0.02     0.11     3.54     0.95P    2.47R    0.21  
Bournemouth     20   22  -14       2.07    64.02    -1.39    49.06     7.45   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   29.85R    7.05  
Millwall        20   21  -15      -1.21    43.43    -6.91    50.65     7.34   -24.51     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   21.97R    4.20  
Middlesbrough   20   20   -1      -6.73    14.58     0.18    54.12     7.55    -3.48     0.00     0.02     0.74     0.20P    9.78R    1.50  
Doncaster       20   20  -17       0.96    57.91    -4.33    45.05     7.13   -33.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    50.90R   16.00  
Charlton        20   18   -9      -7.44    11.95    -6.38    50.77     7.35   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   19.62R    3.53  
Sheff_Wed       19   17   -8      -5.23    19.50    -2.34    49.66     7.57   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   24.75R    5.39  
Yeovil          20   17  -10      -2.17    37.71     2.47    43.21     7.18   -24.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    59.00R   22.16  
Barnsley        20   15  -19      -5.23    19.62    -7.53    40.34     7.05   -35.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.58R   39.36  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, Bradford 1 1 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   20   44  +25      10.24    94.38    15.47    87.99     7.65    37.66    27.75    58.60    97.08    68.37P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   20   43  +19       4.94    77.64     3.27    92.46     7.51    39.71    54.03    78.41    99.18    85.57P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       20   40  +11       7.44    87.22     3.43    80.81     7.64    18.73     5.66    18.96    82.43    33.99P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         20   38  +11       7.54    87.80     6.50    77.89     7.60    17.31     2.83    10.88    72.22    24.04P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    20   36  +10       1.15    56.45    -1.24    81.82     7.83    25.70     8.02    24.73    86.11    43.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       20   34   +9       7.27    86.00    10.34    68.07     7.86     6.23     0.24     1.21    24.34     4.85P    0.43R    0.01  
Bradford        20   30  +11       3.88    72.46    12.93    62.69     7.69     6.44     0.02     0.17     9.27     1.74P    2.26R    0.07  
Swindon         20   30   +9      -4.39    24.79    -1.56    74.05     7.64    21.55     1.07     4.76    55.75    20.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall         20   30   +3       2.22    63.49     2.30    67.59     7.63     6.01     0.11     0.72    21.30     4.88P    0.50R    0.01  
Port_Vale       20   30   +0       4.57    75.62     3.43    62.97     7.83    -4.78     0.04     0.21     9.03     1.56P    2.71R    0.16  
Coventry        20   25   +7       3.22    68.17     0.26    64.44     7.88    12.56     0.07     0.43    13.87     3.65P    1.56R    0.08  
MK_Dons         19   25   +1      -4.77    22.99    -4.62    67.42     8.00     9.03     0.16     0.89    22.72     6.45P    0.72R    0.02  
Carlisle        20   24  -10       1.08    57.49    -2.54    52.56     7.38   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.05P   26.81R    3.39  
Crawley_Town    20   23   -5      -1.94    38.80    -1.24    54.07     7.46   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.16P   19.34R    2.14  
Shrewsbury      20   22   -2      -2.90    32.97     1.51    55.01     7.41    -5.61     0.00     0.01     0.94     0.22P   15.34R    1.70  
Oldham          19   22   -3      -0.67    46.64     1.90    54.37     7.68    -9.83     0.00     0.01     0.98     0.18P   18.63R    2.16  
Gillingham      21   22  -10      -1.39    42.70    -1.27    49.17     7.26   -21.35     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   43.06R    7.99  
Colchester      20   21   -9      -0.86    45.80    -0.53    51.50     7.39   -16.97     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   30.81R    5.03  
Sheff_Utd       20   20   -9      -8.23    10.00   -10.30    57.88     7.62    -5.61     0.00     0.01     2.25     0.60P    9.01R    0.76  
Tranmere        20   20  -14      -3.95    27.34    -8.53    52.21     7.50   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P   28.04R    4.07  
Stevenage       20   18  -13      -4.48    24.26    -5.37    47.86     7.39   -21.74     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   50.05R   11.48  
Notts_County    21   17   -9     -10.70     4.99    -7.25    50.24     7.43   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P   34.80R    6.32  
Crewe           20   17  -25      -1.47    42.16   -10.01    40.76     7.01   -44.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.49R   48.65  
Bristol_City    20   15   -7     -12.55     2.67    -6.88    51.06     7.84    -6.70     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.10P   31.41R    5.93  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           20   37  +16       5.05    77.76     9.40    77.77     7.54    23.51    23.04    55.51    86.89    64.09P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         20   36  +12       2.46    64.80     3.16    78.62     7.49    22.14    25.90    59.37    88.72    68.43P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       20   35   +9       6.10    82.13     6.77    72.75     7.67    12.03     8.01    28.14    65.81    36.89P    0.02R    0.01  
Newport_County       20   34   +8       9.91    93.31    12.97    66.56     7.71     3.58     1.74     9.02    34.50    13.26P    0.40R    0.13  
Scunthorpe           20   34   +5       1.69    59.69    -2.19    76.26     7.86    14.77    17.27    45.77    79.79    55.80P    0.02R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        20   34   +3       6.24    82.92     2.43    69.55     7.61     2.91     3.28    15.20    48.16    22.14P    0.12R    0.04  
Southend             20   33   +7       1.86    61.38     1.54    74.26     7.56    15.18    10.86    35.61    73.67    46.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             20   33   +2       3.98    72.66    -0.34    70.21     7.72     4.23     4.32    17.88    51.71    25.66P    0.11R    0.02  
Morecambe            21   32   -1       3.78    71.84    -0.22    64.27     7.30    -3.76     0.70     4.32    22.44     7.93P    0.78R    0.25  
Dag_&_Red            20   30   +4       2.79    66.88     4.20    65.39     7.58     3.65     1.24     6.83    29.39    11.78P    0.60R    0.17  
Exeter               20   29   +0       0.52    53.39    -1.48    66.56     7.67     2.91     1.76     8.84    34.45    15.17P    0.48R    0.17  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   27   -1       3.16    69.26     4.24    58.17     7.40    -7.58     0.10     0.79     6.82     1.84P    5.58R    2.11  
Cheltenham           21   27   -4      -1.82    39.78    -4.15    61.05     7.37    -4.24     0.23     1.82    12.72     4.46P    2.39R    0.85  
Hartlepool           20   26   +1      -3.98    27.86    -2.88    64.46     7.66     5.39     0.93     5.77    26.43    11.84P    0.92R    0.27  
Wycombe              20   24   -2      -2.61    34.85    -0.90    58.92     7.58    -2.91     0.13     1.20     9.02     3.05P    4.68R    1.73  
Plymouth             20   23   -7      -1.14    43.63    -3.18    54.10     7.13   -12.30     0.03     0.16     1.91     0.49P   14.05R    6.08  
Mansfield            20   22   -5      -0.58    47.52     2.10    52.43     7.55   -12.62     0.02     0.13     1.65     0.48P   21.21R   10.54  
Portsmouth           20   22   -7      -8.54    10.79   -11.65    61.36     7.97    -1.58     0.37     2.75    15.82     6.70P    3.21R    1.22  
Bury                 20   20   -3      -8.56     9.65    -4.73    56.60     7.79    -1.43     0.06     0.63     5.71     2.08P    8.76R    3.83  
York                 20   20   -4      -3.64    28.80     1.23    51.24     7.28   -10.03     0.00     0.07     0.95     0.25P   24.18R   12.31  
Accrington_Stanley   20   20   -7      -3.57    29.10    -1.64    50.22     7.31   -14.71     0.00     0.03     0.71     0.18P   30.54R   16.45  
Bristol_Rovers       20   19   -5      -5.79    18.32    -1.51    51.93     7.45    -8.72     0.01     0.07     1.35     0.35P   21.68R   10.98  
Northampton          20   18   -9      -6.94    13.51    -5.78    50.71     7.41   -12.89     0.00     0.05     0.83     0.23P   27.53R   14.52  
Torquay              20   18  -12      -6.23    16.52    -7.39    49.80     7.43   -17.50     0.00     0.03     0.58     0.16P   32.72R   18.35  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, Dartford 1 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    21   48  +27      11.73    96.91    15.72    90.76     7.16    40.10    52.38    97.58    64.21P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            22   44  +24       4.15    73.06     8.33    87.67     6.88    40.79    31.78    94.79    51.25P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    22   39  +11      -0.04    49.35    -3.12    78.65     6.98    21.72     4.19    63.72    19.90P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         22   39   +5       9.80    92.82     6.59    70.49     6.94     2.92     0.31    18.35     2.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby          20   37  +11       2.58    65.17     0.44    80.86     7.29    23.88     7.56    73.74    25.38P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    23   37   -2       8.31    88.19     3.38    67.12     6.87    -5.13     0.07     8.40     1.08P    0.09R    0.00  
Barnet           22   36  +10      -2.34    36.26    -2.65    76.74     7.08    22.07     2.53    53.73    16.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.20    73.31     7.04    68.13     6.95     8.19     0.16    12.27     2.17P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead        21   35   +6       5.18    78.68     4.50    70.82     7.20     8.42     0.40    21.22     4.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Halifax          23   34   +6       2.79    65.66     7.21    64.33     7.21     3.37     0.05     5.41     0.87P    0.27R    0.00  
Salisbury        21   33   +2       6.32    82.80     5.56    64.40     7.52    -2.92     0.04     5.78     0.90P    0.42R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.25    36.66     0.41    68.04     7.37    11.71     0.16    13.73     3.09P    0.10R    0.00  
Welling          21   30   +3       3.78    71.44     7.35    65.26     7.53     4.41     0.08     7.35     1.25P    0.30R    0.00  
Macclesfield     22   29   -2      -1.73    40.23    -2.66    61.01     7.08    -3.50     0.01     1.87     0.29P    1.07R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.78    14.91    -7.59    69.69     7.24    13.44     0.27    18.48     5.12P    0.05R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     21   26   -3      -0.75    45.98     0.05    58.56     7.20    -5.48     0.00     0.95     0.14P    2.55R    0.00  
Woking           22   26   -6      -1.37    42.61    -0.89    53.20     6.88   -16.06     0.00     0.08     0.00P    9.99R    0.03  
Hereford         22   25   -3      -7.50    13.61    -6.47    57.79     6.96    -3.08     0.00     0.59     0.12P    2.60R    0.01  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.34    42.66    -5.11    49.18     6.96   -26.69     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.09R    0.19  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.90    45.44    -1.77    49.03     7.10   -22.70     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.41R    0.30  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.41    25.49    -8.20    60.45     7.35    10.07     0.00     1.94     0.58P    1.63R    0.01  
Chester          22   19  -15      -1.86    40.32    -0.79    44.08     6.81   -27.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.82R    0.99  
Dartford         24   18  -24      -7.50    12.99   -11.63    41.15     6.34   -35.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.67R    2.08  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.66     0.15   -15.71    22.91     6.35   -63.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   96.39  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10