Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 16 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Aston_Villa 0 3 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          16   35  +16       4.05    77.13     1.73    76.87     6.44    35.31    23.99    49.55    69.76    84.44    98.07     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        16   33  +21       1.84    62.92     5.72    73.80     6.54    37.84    13.38    31.82    52.58    71.64    95.56     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   33  +14       1.79    62.49    -1.16    73.84     6.54    30.69    12.51    30.89    51.00    70.38    95.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   32  +29      -2.59    29.53     7.44    79.52     5.95    60.05    45.42    70.46    85.25    93.51    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   31  +12       4.34    78.72     5.35    68.40     6.54    22.90     2.50     8.56    19.69    36.19    81.89     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        16   27   -1       6.90    89.67     3.06    55.03     6.53    -5.53     0.01     0.07     0.38     1.23     9.54     0.11R    0.00  
Tottenham        16   27   -6       3.20    72.11    -8.26    60.25     6.53    -1.71     0.11     0.57     1.95     5.42    28.70     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          16   25   +6      -5.04    17.55    -6.89    68.21     6.30    27.18     2.06     8.01    19.19    36.43    82.57     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      16   24   +5       2.86    70.83     7.14    52.93     6.62     2.71     0.01     0.04     0.19     0.64     6.33     0.29R    0.02  
Swansea          16   20   +1      -1.21    41.79     2.69    47.96     6.43    -3.09     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.07     1.38     1.97R    0.18  
Aston_Villa      16   19   -5       1.20    59.86     1.98    45.69     6.37   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.52     4.93R    0.55  
Hull             16   19   -6       3.12    74.24     4.01    40.10     6.17   -19.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    21.34R    3.48  
Stoke            16   18   -5      -0.56    46.58     0.24    43.77     6.34   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23     7.94R    0.91  
Norwich          16   18  -14       1.27    61.00    -3.92    40.89     6.33   -26.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    19.92R    3.77  
Cardiff          16   17  -10       1.21    60.41    -0.78    39.11     6.11   -24.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    27.03R    5.47  
West_Brom        16   15   -5      -4.93    17.77    -0.93    43.36     6.57    -8.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.20     9.77R    1.40  
West_Ham         16   14   -6      -5.36    16.08    -1.93    38.89     6.29   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    26.20R    5.17  
Crystal_Palace   16   13  -13      -0.53    47.55     1.25    30.84     5.81   -34.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.52R   42.19  
Fulham           16   13  -15      -4.90    18.27    -7.81    37.87     6.36   -25.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.65R    8.21  
Sunderland       16    9  -18      -6.92     8.80    -8.93    32.61     6.11   -30.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.31R   28.66  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Wigan 3 2 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR             20   42  +14       7.69    88.58     4.10    85.57     7.47    25.38    37.22    58.99    93.57    69.20P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         20   40  +17       7.61    88.17     9.50    81.73     7.53    26.09    19.82    39.53    85.65    51.05P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       20   39  +10       5.49    80.17     0.80    80.86     7.56    19.45    16.59    34.04    81.83    46.60P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           20   37  +16       5.75    80.63    10.18    79.57     7.59    26.82    13.42    29.61    79.05    41.37P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         20   34   +7       0.93    55.39    -1.63    76.11     7.85    16.86     6.50    16.14    61.95    28.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    20   33   +9       4.12    73.62     6.80    71.16     7.66    12.83     1.66     5.39    37.09    11.94P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   32   +7       2.20    63.32     3.30    69.52     7.50     9.97     1.00     3.27    28.86     8.90P    0.04R    0.00  
Brighton        20   31   +7      -0.60    46.38     0.78    72.27     7.36    15.34     1.93     6.20    42.86    16.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       20   31   +0       2.12    63.14    -2.23    67.35     7.47     1.22     0.47     1.62    18.94     5.26P    0.13R    0.01  
Ipswich         20   30   +6       3.11    68.80     6.68    66.41     7.65     7.18     0.44     1.48    17.09     4.45P    0.23R    0.01  
Blackburn       20   27   +1      -1.06    43.86    -0.12    64.42     7.55     3.77     0.18     0.70    11.25     3.09P    0.48R    0.02  
Huddersfield    20   26   +1       0.97    56.70     4.42    58.61     7.40    -3.48     0.03     0.09     2.66     0.56P    2.83R    0.26  
Watford         20   25   +2      -5.66    19.68    -3.00    64.61     7.72     7.99     0.22     0.92    12.77     3.98P    0.53R    0.05  
Wigan           19   25   +0      -4.78    23.21    -5.54    65.99     7.98     6.13     0.47     1.71    17.14     5.98P    0.39R    0.03  
Birmingham      20   23   +0      -5.90    18.00    -2.19    59.76     7.58     1.83     0.03     0.16     4.05     1.08P    2.06R    0.18  
Bolton          20   22   -4      -6.56    15.47    -5.81    59.71     7.65    -0.85     0.02     0.13     3.81     1.03P    2.41R    0.26  
Bournemouth     20   22  -14       2.03    64.07    -1.46    49.18     7.47   -27.94     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   29.27R    6.92  
Millwall        20   21  -15      -1.13    43.94    -6.81    50.64     7.36   -24.50     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   22.25R    4.34  
Middlesbrough   20   20   -1      -6.78    14.86     0.07    54.20     7.62    -3.35     0.00     0.03     0.83     0.20P    9.62R    1.41  
Doncaster       20   20  -17       0.99    58.15    -4.19    45.02     7.16   -33.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.20R   16.33  
Charlton        20   18   -9      -7.53    11.34    -6.52    50.87     7.31   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   19.01R    3.41  
Sheff_Wed       19   17   -8      -5.17    20.11    -2.24    49.54     7.62   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   25.30R    5.48  
Yeovil          20   17  -10      -2.17    37.58     2.49    43.29     7.21   -24.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.56R   21.36  
Barnsley        20   15  -19      -5.11    20.21    -7.38    40.16     7.07   -35.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.65R   39.91  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, Bradford 1 1 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   20   44  +25      10.13    94.09    15.34    88.09     7.62    37.81    27.97    59.24    97.31    69.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   20   43  +19       4.97    77.62     3.35    92.47     7.64    39.70    54.17    78.34    99.11    85.29P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       20   40  +11       7.47    87.48     3.54    80.83     7.56    18.67     5.60    18.94    83.27    34.25P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         20   38  +11       7.47    87.33     6.38    77.92     7.58    17.36     2.82    10.91    72.70    24.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    20   36  +10       1.20    56.66    -1.17    81.70     7.83    25.56     7.78    24.24    85.75    42.81P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       20   34   +9       7.44    86.51    10.66    67.82     7.90     5.86     0.23     1.13    23.56     4.78P    0.51R    0.02  
Bradford        20   30  +11       3.94    72.50    13.04    62.66     7.64     6.33     0.03     0.17     9.27     1.73P    2.18R    0.10  
Swindon         20   30   +9      -4.22    25.87    -1.38    73.79     7.69    21.25     1.03     4.89    54.45    19.92P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         20   30   +3       2.13    63.11     2.16    67.60     7.58     6.00     0.12     0.64    21.56     5.00P    0.43R    0.01  
Port_Vale       20   30   +0       4.48    75.18     3.31    63.02     7.83    -4.70     0.05     0.25     9.25     1.78P    2.59R    0.15  
Coventry        20   25   +7       3.27    68.47     0.36    64.42     7.91    12.55     0.06     0.37    14.06     3.76P    1.57R    0.08  
MK_Dons         19   25   +1      -4.73    23.02    -4.54    67.35     7.92     8.92     0.14     0.83    22.47     6.25P    0.61R    0.02  
Carlisle        20   24  -10       1.06    57.52    -2.61    52.65     7.41   -21.63     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.05P   26.60R    3.58  
Crawley_Town    20   23   -5      -1.88    39.34    -1.22    54.08     7.46   -11.90     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.16P   19.60R    2.20  
Shrewsbury      20   22   -2      -2.78    33.74     1.68    54.96     7.42    -5.71     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.16P   15.75R    1.67  
Oldham          19   22   -3      -0.69    46.55     1.90    54.36     7.65    -9.81     0.00     0.01     0.99     0.17P   18.80R    2.24  
Gillingham      21   22  -10      -1.40    42.87    -1.28    49.24     7.28   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   42.55R    8.14  
Colchester      20   21   -9      -1.00    45.06    -0.73    51.68     7.42   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P   30.43R    4.71  
Sheff_Utd       20   20   -9      -8.30     9.77   -10.44    58.01     7.61    -5.40     0.00     0.02     2.49     0.64P    8.59R    0.68  
Tranmere        20   20  -14      -3.97    27.26    -8.59    52.27     7.50   -19.22     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P   28.11R    4.12  
Stevenage       20   18  -13      -4.44    24.46    -5.31    47.82     7.37   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   50.16R   11.61  
Notts_County    21   17   -9     -10.78     5.04    -7.33    50.23     7.43   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   35.26R    6.10  
Crewe           20   17  -25      -1.45    42.11   -10.03    40.78     6.98   -44.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.47R   48.25  
Bristol_City    20   15   -7     -12.69     2.80    -7.10    51.12     7.98    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.10P   31.74R    6.32  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           20   37  +16       5.09    78.15     9.45    77.80     7.55    23.56    23.16    55.52    86.90    63.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         20   36  +12       2.40    64.42     3.12    78.68     7.57    22.22    26.49    59.76    88.68    68.73P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       20   35   +9       6.08    82.08     6.71    72.79     7.61    12.10     7.93    28.52    66.52    37.10P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County       20   34   +8       9.79    93.21    12.78    66.70     7.75     3.80     1.81     9.11    35.32    13.66P    0.42R    0.10  
Scunthorpe           20   34   +5       1.62    59.40    -2.31    76.29     7.86    14.82    17.27    45.92    79.99    56.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        20   34   +3       6.38    83.60     2.66    69.36     7.59     2.59     3.17    14.78    47.07    21.48P    0.15R    0.04  
Southend             20   33   +7       1.92    61.68     1.62    74.13     7.60    15.05    10.56    35.01    73.00    46.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             20   33   +2       3.83    71.69    -0.50    70.39     7.70     4.45     4.43    18.62    52.94    26.54P    0.10R    0.04  
Morecambe            21   32   -1       3.86    72.08    -0.13    64.20     7.29    -3.83     0.62     4.26    22.21     8.01P    0.74R    0.21  
Dag_&_Red            20   30   +4       2.95    67.91     4.45    65.13     7.60     3.31     1.10     6.32    28.24    11.00P    0.62R    0.20  
Exeter               20   29   +0       0.59    53.78    -1.38    66.37     7.70     2.68     1.56     8.41    33.77    14.81P    0.52R    0.12  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   27   -1       3.25    69.83     4.38    58.08     7.42    -7.69     0.08     0.82     6.71     1.84P    5.78R    2.22  
Cheltenham           21   27   -4      -1.84    39.92    -4.20    61.02     7.39    -4.26     0.22     1.79    12.67     4.41P    2.54R    0.87  
Hartlepool           20   26   +1      -4.11    26.83    -3.01    64.62     7.70     5.56     0.97     6.01    26.95    12.16P    0.83R    0.25  
Wycombe              20   24   -2      -2.62    34.81    -0.93    58.90     7.59    -2.98     0.16     1.16     8.95     3.02P    4.84R    1.86  
Plymouth             20   23   -7      -1.14    43.55    -3.18    54.09     7.16   -12.29     0.01     0.16     1.91     0.51P   14.16R    6.16  
Mansfield            20   22   -5      -0.52    47.83     2.18    52.37     7.60   -12.67     0.01     0.13     1.77     0.46P   21.37R   10.69  
Portsmouth           20   22   -7      -8.58    10.49   -11.71    61.44     7.89    -1.47     0.37     2.74    15.88     6.80P    3.04R    1.02  
Bury                 20   20   -3      -8.57     9.84    -4.74    56.65     7.80    -1.34     0.06     0.70     5.89     2.30P    8.59R    3.68  
York                 20   20   -4      -3.68    28.61     1.13    51.37     7.37    -9.82     0.00     0.07     1.06     0.28P   23.85R   12.12  
Accrington_Stanley   20   20   -7      -3.43    30.29    -1.46    50.11     7.33   -14.82     0.00     0.03     0.68     0.17P   30.78R   16.76  
Bristol_Rovers       20   19   -5      -5.81    18.14    -1.57    51.88     7.46    -8.81     0.01     0.06     1.36     0.33P   21.93R   11.08  
Northampton          20   18   -9      -6.90    13.75    -5.75    50.70     7.47   -12.93     0.00     0.07     0.93     0.26P   27.59R   14.57  
Torquay              20   18  -12      -6.40    15.78    -7.64    49.97     7.46   -17.26     0.00     0.04     0.61     0.15P   32.12R   18.00  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, Dartford 1 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    21   48  +27      11.60    96.79    15.52    90.90     7.15    40.34    52.68    97.73    64.41P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            22   44  +24       4.16    73.39     8.39    87.68     6.91    40.80    31.78    94.97    51.32P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    22   39  +11      -0.04    49.12    -3.08    78.63     7.00    21.65     4.15    63.82    19.95P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         22   39   +5       9.67    92.73     6.41    70.42     6.90     2.86     0.32    17.85     2.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          20   37  +11       2.64    65.94     0.60    80.75     7.33    23.67     7.17    73.21    24.90P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    23   37   -2       8.43    88.58     3.56    67.19     6.74    -5.08     0.06     8.16     1.03P    0.07R    0.00  
Barnet           22   36  +10      -2.39    35.79    -2.74    76.73     7.09    22.14     2.64    54.09    17.47P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.10    72.90     6.88    68.29     6.96     8.43     0.14    12.80     2.19P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead        21   35   +6       5.11    78.15     4.42    70.88     7.23     8.49     0.42    21.86     3.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Halifax          23   34   +6       2.72    65.06     7.09    64.33     7.24     3.44     0.03     5.64     0.87P    0.32R    0.00  
Salisbury        21   33   +2       6.49    83.07     5.85    64.09     7.53    -3.40     0.06     5.38     0.79P    0.44R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.27    36.46     0.42    68.03     7.40    11.67     0.20    13.76     3.00P    0.12R    0.00  
Welling          21   30   +3       4.13    73.29     7.78    64.90     7.55     3.85     0.05     6.76     1.13P    0.41R    0.00  
Macclesfield     22   29   -2      -1.70    40.28    -2.64    60.95     6.99    -3.56     0.01     1.65     0.32P    0.99R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.70    15.05    -7.48    69.68     7.21    13.38     0.29    18.52     5.09P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     21   26   -3      -0.79    45.85    -0.03    58.63     7.19    -5.33     0.00     1.00     0.14P    2.37R    0.00  
Woking           22   26   -6      -1.43    41.99    -0.98    53.27     6.81   -15.96     0.00     0.08     0.01P    9.79R    0.01  
Hereford         22   25   -3      -7.56    13.11    -6.58    57.84     6.95    -2.96     0.00     0.62     0.13P    2.50R    0.01  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.43    42.14    -5.26    49.30     6.97   -26.52     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.05R    0.23  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.95    45.11    -1.86    49.14     7.17   -22.53     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.01R    0.31  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.48    25.22    -8.30    60.50     7.37    10.18     0.01     2.07     0.55P    1.51R    0.00  
Chester          22   19  -15      -1.73    40.73    -0.56    44.00     6.81   -27.12     0.00     0.00     0.00P   55.53R    1.11  
Dartford         24   18  -24      -7.49    12.76   -11.63    41.19     6.31   -35.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.95R    2.20  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.71     0.13   -15.79    23.01     6.40   -63.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.85R   96.12  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10