Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 15 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Aston_Villa 0 3 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          16   35  +16       4.17    77.78     1.90    76.76     6.48    35.13    23.84    48.85    69.11    83.59    97.91     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        16   33  +21       1.84    62.45     5.74    73.73     6.54    37.82    12.96    31.64    52.71    71.75    95.33     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   33  +14       1.86    62.94    -1.06    73.77     6.54    30.57    12.31    30.36    50.45    69.84    95.18     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   32  +29      -2.69    28.97     7.23    79.66     5.92    60.32    46.12    71.63    86.04    94.01    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   31  +12       4.32    78.43     5.33    68.53     6.56    23.04     2.70     9.04    20.21    37.15    82.16     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        16   27   -1       6.91    89.93     3.03    55.03     6.55    -5.47     0.02     0.09     0.43     1.22     9.56     0.13R    0.00  
Tottenham        16   27   -6       3.16    71.73    -8.34    60.39     6.61    -1.54     0.12     0.65     2.19     5.89    29.39     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          16   25   +6      -4.99    17.85    -6.78    68.10     6.30    26.96     1.93     7.72    18.67    35.80    81.76     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      16   24   +5       2.76    70.39     7.02    53.01     6.64     2.86     0.00     0.02     0.16     0.63     6.69     0.29R    0.02  
Swansea          16   20   +1      -1.26    41.69     2.62    47.93     6.39    -3.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     1.27     2.00R    0.13  
Aston_Villa      16   19   -5       1.21    59.85     1.96    45.71     6.35   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.47     4.90R    0.51  
Hull             16   19   -6       3.14    74.16     4.05    40.08     6.23   -19.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    21.82R    3.69  
Stoke            16   18   -5      -0.60    46.39     0.16    43.78     6.34   -11.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     7.93R    0.91  
Norwich          16   18  -14       1.32    61.42    -3.83    40.85     6.28   -26.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    19.91R    3.68  
Cardiff          16   17  -10       1.17    60.11    -0.83    39.14     6.18   -24.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    27.21R    5.39  
West_Brom        16   15   -5      -4.84    18.16    -0.80    43.23     6.59    -8.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.27    10.15R    1.39  
West_Ham         16   14   -6      -5.43    15.66    -2.01    39.07     6.28   -14.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    25.03R    5.12  
Crystal_Palace   16   13  -13      -0.66    46.55     1.04    30.92     5.83   -33.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.90R   41.48  
Fulham           16   13  -15      -4.82    18.56    -7.64    37.73     6.33   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.27R    8.54  
Sunderland       16    9  -18      -6.87     8.86    -8.81    32.58     6.13   -30.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.45R   29.14  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 December 2013, Wigan 3 2 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

QPR             20   42  +14       7.70    88.73     4.18    85.37     7.51    25.18    36.50    58.25    93.29    68.58P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         20   40  +17       7.51    88.00     9.36    81.80     7.52    26.18    20.48    40.04    86.17    51.68P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       20   39  +10       5.27    79.24     0.47    81.19     7.47    19.90    17.26    35.41    83.25    48.01P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           20   37  +16       6.00    81.62    10.54    79.33     7.62    26.42    12.77    28.60    78.12    40.16P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         20   34   +7       1.05    56.31    -1.42    75.95     7.82    16.60     6.38    15.59    61.39    28.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    20   33   +9       4.06    73.54     6.69    71.25     7.61    12.96     1.76     5.45    37.48    12.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   32   +7       2.08    62.58     3.19    69.60     7.50    10.10     1.05     3.45    28.87     9.09P    0.05R    0.01  
Brighton        20   31   +7      -0.46    47.07     0.90    72.13     7.47    15.15     1.98     6.29    42.35    16.38P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       20   31   +0       1.95    61.90    -2.44    67.58     7.45     1.59     0.51     1.93    19.52     5.66P    0.12R    0.00  
Ipswich         20   30   +6       3.12    69.14     6.68    66.45     7.64     7.24     0.42     1.47    17.48     4.54P    0.23R    0.01  
Blackburn       20   27   +1      -0.99    44.38    -0.00    64.34     7.53     3.67     0.17     0.64    10.92     2.92P    0.50R    0.03  
Huddersfield    20   26   +1       1.08    57.33     4.56    58.53     7.40    -3.61     0.02     0.09     2.61     0.55P    2.99R    0.27  
Watford         20   25   +2      -5.75    18.98    -3.11    64.70     7.67     8.14     0.23     0.92    12.88     4.05P    0.45R    0.03  
Wigan           19   25   +0      -4.73    23.50    -5.44    65.86     7.97     5.96     0.40     1.53    16.63     5.74P    0.39R    0.03  
Birmingham      20   23   +0      -5.94    18.27    -2.20    59.80     7.57     1.89     0.04     0.17     4.04     1.03P    2.15R    0.17  
Bolton          20   22   -4      -6.58    15.36    -5.84    59.70     7.54    -0.84     0.04     0.14     3.60     1.02P    2.33R    0.25  
Bournemouth     20   22  -14       2.11    64.47    -1.36    49.03     7.42   -28.18     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   30.05R    7.06  
Millwall        20   21  -15      -1.26    43.22    -7.03    50.81     7.33   -24.25     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   21.48R    4.17  
Middlesbrough   20   20   -1      -6.70    15.00     0.20    54.04     7.57    -3.59     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.20P    9.94R    1.48  
Doncaster       20   20  -17       1.01    58.12    -4.24    45.04     7.08   -33.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.02R   16.17  
Charlton        20   18   -9      -7.56    11.65    -6.60    50.94     7.31   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P   18.69R    3.31  
Sheff_Wed       19   17   -8      -5.09    20.25    -2.13    49.49     7.59   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   25.49R    5.71  
Yeovil          20   17  -10      -2.11    38.03     2.59    43.24     7.20   -24.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.99R   21.84  
Barnsley        20   15  -19      -5.23    19.86    -7.54    40.28     7.09   -35.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.08R   39.48  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, Bradford 1 1 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   20   44  +25      10.24    94.25    15.44    88.02     7.64    37.69    27.55    58.36    97.09    68.40P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   20   43  +19       4.87    77.34     3.20    92.53     7.53    39.82    54.35    78.47    99.13    85.50P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       20   40  +11       7.36    87.27     3.31    80.98     7.57    18.97     5.57    19.24    83.38    34.79P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         20   38  +11       7.59    87.70     6.53    77.80     7.62    17.19     2.88    10.81    71.64    23.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    20   36  +10       1.07    55.82    -1.37    81.91     7.78    25.87     8.10    24.69    86.51    43.74P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       20   34   +9       7.48    86.48    10.70    67.83     7.86     5.84     0.18     1.09    23.38     4.56P    0.44R    0.01  
Bradford        20   30  +11       3.95    72.41    13.03    62.72     7.72     6.38     0.04     0.21     9.48     1.67P    2.21R    0.09  
Swindon         20   30   +9      -4.20    25.71    -1.29    73.84     7.71    21.21     1.02     4.90    54.73    19.63P    0.06R    0.00  
Walsall         20   30   +3       2.21    63.90     2.28    67.60     7.62     5.99     0.09     0.71    21.65     5.05P    0.45R    0.02  
Port_Vale       20   30   +0       4.71    76.12     3.66    62.73     7.90    -5.17     0.03     0.21     8.87     1.55P    2.95R    0.12  
Coventry        20   25   +7       3.24    68.28     0.33    64.47     7.85    12.60     0.06     0.38    14.30     3.74P    1.53R    0.10  
MK_Dons         19   25   +1      -4.75    22.96    -4.60    67.43     8.01     9.05     0.14     0.89    22.91     6.37P    0.70R    0.03  
Carlisle        20   24  -10       1.06    57.68    -2.57    52.53     7.39   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.07P   27.19R    3.61  
Crawley_Town    20   23   -5      -1.88    39.56    -1.15    54.01     7.42   -12.03     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.11P   19.63R    2.31  
Shrewsbury      20   22   -2      -2.84    33.37     1.63    54.94     7.38    -5.73     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.13P   15.44R    1.72  
Oldham          19   22   -3      -0.65    46.86     1.99    54.37     7.59    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.16P   18.54R    2.24  
Gillingham      21   22  -10      -1.50    42.22    -1.45    49.35     7.34   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   42.12R    8.06  
Colchester      20   21   -9      -1.07    44.46    -0.86    51.67     7.46   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P   30.43R    4.82  
Sheff_Utd       20   20   -9      -8.29     9.96   -10.43    57.89     7.64    -5.56     0.00     0.01     2.40     0.61P    8.97R    0.80  
Tranmere        20   20  -14      -4.03    26.91    -8.69    52.28     7.47   -19.18     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P   27.79R    4.00  
Stevenage       20   18  -13      -4.44    24.29    -5.34    47.84     7.36   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   50.41R   11.51  
Notts_County    21   17   -9     -10.78     4.95    -7.34    50.23     7.43   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   34.97R    6.11  
Crewe           20   17  -25      -1.45    42.12    -9.95    40.76     7.01   -44.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.82R   48.61  
Bristol_City    20   15   -7     -12.65     2.66    -7.03    51.18     7.91    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.12P   31.34R    5.86  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           20   37  +16       4.98    77.66     9.28    77.95     7.51    23.81    23.62    56.36    87.56    64.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         20   36  +12       2.28    63.46     2.94    78.82     7.56    22.41    26.76    60.09    89.11    69.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       20   35   +9       6.00    82.16     6.62    72.79     7.64    12.13     7.74    28.50    66.26    37.16P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County       20   34   +8       9.97    93.47    13.08    66.43     7.73     3.41     1.76     8.72    33.83    12.92P    0.45R    0.10  
Scunthorpe           20   34   +5       1.68    59.32    -2.21    76.19     7.87    14.66    16.68    45.14    79.53    55.44P    0.02R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        20   34   +3       6.20    82.75     2.41    69.59     7.57     2.96     3.32    15.27    48.62    22.10P    0.14R    0.02  
Southend             20   33   +7       1.92    61.80     1.61    74.17     7.56    15.10    10.60    35.06    73.40    46.22P    0.02R    0.00  
Rochdale             20   33   +2       3.94    72.55    -0.36    70.22     7.73     4.20     4.28    18.04    51.94    25.80P    0.12R    0.04  
Morecambe            21   32   -1       3.79    71.75    -0.21    64.31     7.29    -3.69     0.63     4.31    22.62     8.18P    0.80R    0.21  
Dag_&_Red            20   30   +4       2.83    67.15     4.23    65.33     7.64     3.56     1.19     6.62    29.44    11.52P    0.68R    0.20  
Exeter               20   29   +0       0.65    54.27    -1.32    66.38     7.68     2.66     1.57     8.34    33.53    14.42P    0.59R    0.18  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   27   -1       3.26    70.24     4.41    58.09     7.38    -7.67     0.07     0.81     6.51     1.85P    5.73R    2.15  
Cheltenham           21   27   -4      -1.76    40.05    -4.06    60.92     7.42    -4.44     0.23     1.77    12.60     4.35P    2.54R    0.85  
Hartlepool           20   26   +1      -4.02    27.51    -2.88    64.50     7.71     5.44     0.99     5.78    26.80    11.89P    0.90R    0.22  
Wycombe              20   24   -2      -2.67    34.53    -0.99    58.98     7.57    -2.88     0.14     1.31     8.97     3.11P    4.70R    1.79  
Plymouth             20   23   -7      -1.06    44.09    -3.07    53.95     7.14   -12.49     0.01     0.14     1.84     0.50P   14.62R    6.29  
Mansfield            20   22   -5      -0.59    47.52     2.07    52.42     7.61   -12.64     0.01     0.13     1.69     0.45P   21.53R   10.91  
Portsmouth           20   22   -7      -8.52    10.67   -11.62    61.28     7.89    -1.67     0.31     2.65    15.43     6.68P    3.12R    1.08  
Bury                 20   20   -3      -8.74     9.18    -4.98    56.89     7.76    -1.01     0.07     0.71     6.00     2.26P    8.10R    3.51  
York                 20   20   -4      -3.54    29.53     1.37    51.16     7.33   -10.12     0.00     0.07     0.99     0.27P   24.79R   12.74  
Accrington_Stanley   20   20   -7      -3.50    29.72    -1.57    50.17     7.24   -14.73     0.01     0.03     0.64     0.14P   30.18R   16.27  
Bristol_Rovers       20   19   -5      -5.77    18.20    -1.49    51.84     7.43    -8.84     0.00     0.08     1.29     0.33P   21.94R   11.18  
Northampton          20   18   -9      -6.92    13.69    -5.75    50.81     7.39   -12.81     0.01     0.04     0.77     0.22P   26.83R   14.20  
Torquay              20   18  -12      -6.30    16.07    -7.51    49.96     7.44   -17.34     0.01     0.03     0.63     0.16P   32.20R   18.04  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 December 2013, Dartford 1 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    21   48  +27      11.76    96.96    15.73    90.73     7.12    40.08    51.74    97.64    63.63P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            22   44  +24       4.08    72.94     8.25    87.70     6.88    40.83    32.06    94.94    51.26P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    22   39  +11      -0.03    49.48    -3.11    78.67     6.99    21.70     4.36    63.87    19.98P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         22   39   +5       9.77    92.92     6.58    70.46     6.92     2.86     0.30    18.30     2.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          20   37  +11       2.59    65.74     0.48    80.94     7.25    23.97     7.60    74.15    25.97P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    23   37   -2       8.32    88.39     3.38    67.19     6.78    -4.98     0.06     8.21     0.96P    0.06R    0.00  
Barnet           22   36  +10      -2.37    36.25    -2.70    76.76     7.13    22.16     2.67    54.09    17.43P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.06    72.78     6.82    68.24     6.98     8.41     0.17    12.39     2.15P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead        21   35   +6       5.30    78.88     4.66    70.71     7.19     8.23     0.37    20.91     3.69P    0.02R    0.00  
Halifax          23   34   +6       2.81    65.75     7.25    64.33     7.17     3.33     0.03     5.46     0.89P    0.26R    0.00  
Salisbury        21   33   +2       6.21    82.31     5.32    64.55     7.57    -2.71     0.07     6.13     1.03P    0.40R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.18    37.08     0.52    67.93     7.35    11.52     0.19    13.19     2.83P    0.10R    0.00  
Welling          21   30   +3       4.06    72.87     7.72    64.93     7.59     3.94     0.07     6.95     1.15P    0.43R    0.00  
Macclesfield     22   29   -2      -1.64    41.01    -2.53    60.89     7.00    -3.65     0.01     1.70     0.30P    1.05R    0.01  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.81    14.75    -7.65    69.70     7.18    13.47     0.30    18.51     5.18P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     21   26   -3      -0.66    46.39     0.18    58.49     7.15    -5.56     0.01     0.90     0.14P    2.45R    0.00  
Woking           22   26   -6      -1.32    42.76    -0.80    53.09     6.84   -16.22     0.00     0.10     0.01P   10.34R    0.03  
Hereford         22   25   -3      -7.67    12.98    -6.72    57.88     6.92    -2.94     0.00     0.53     0.12P    2.50R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.39    42.45    -5.20    49.23     6.97   -26.63     0.00     0.01     0.00P   26.04R    0.26  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.96    44.75    -1.86    49.09     7.11   -22.56     0.00     0.02     0.00    26.40R    0.30  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.48    25.31    -8.31    60.51     7.37    10.21     0.00     2.01     0.60P    1.53R    0.00  
Chester          22   19  -15      -1.74    41.09    -0.57    44.00     6.93   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.38R    1.09  
Dartford         24   18  -24      -7.55    12.70   -11.71    41.28     6.32   -35.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.10R    2.10  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.68     0.12   -15.74    22.99     6.39   -63.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.86R   96.21  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10