Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 12 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 December 2013, Swansea 1 1 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          15   35  +19       4.68    81.67     3.60    77.99     6.56    37.73    35.54    61.65    79.37    89.99    98.62     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   30  +16       1.29    59.09     2.66    70.44     6.83    29.94     7.12    19.61    37.40    56.94    87.26     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   30  +13       1.30    59.23    -0.23    73.82     6.63    32.89    14.85    35.50    57.71    75.17    94.75     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         15   29  +26      -3.10    25.98     6.67    77.94     6.19    56.50    37.89    65.61    82.14    91.60    98.84     0.00     0.00  
Everton          15   28   +9       3.87    76.63     4.03    67.18     6.75    20.59     2.25     8.13    18.86    35.38    74.92     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        15   27   -1       3.52    74.90    -5.05    63.22     6.80     5.85     0.64     2.75     7.37    15.93    48.99     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        15   26   -1       7.41    92.07     3.11    55.80     6.82    -4.75     0.06     0.26     0.80     2.41    13.02     0.13R    0.01  
Southampton      15   23   +5       2.96    72.09     6.75    52.86     6.84     2.15     0.01     0.08     0.31     1.02     7.55     0.42R    0.02  
Man_Utd          15   22   +3      -5.73    13.75    -8.50    66.23     6.64    23.60     1.65     6.41    15.97    31.20    71.47     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          15   19   +1      -0.97    43.17     2.47    48.28     6.64    -3.16     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.16     1.82     2.27R    0.17  
Aston_Villa      15   19   -2       1.74    63.99     3.56    47.33     6.57    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     1.27     3.29R    0.31  
Hull             15   18   -6       3.48    77.33     4.19    40.37     6.45   -19.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    21.82R    3.65  
Stoke            15   17   -5      -0.45    47.25    -0.08    43.98     6.56   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.39     8.40R    0.98  
Norwich          15   17  -14       1.70    64.54    -3.90    41.29     6.54   -26.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10    19.75R    3.44  
West_Brom        15   15   -4      -3.86    22.77    -0.51    45.01     6.83    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.73     7.28R    0.91  
Cardiff          15   14  -11      -0.31    49.38    -1.53    37.57     6.36   -25.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    37.52R    8.78  
West_Ham         15   13   -6      -4.75    18.22    -1.58    40.00     6.53   -14.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    21.91R    4.38  
Fulham           15   13  -12      -4.55    19.27    -6.64    38.93     6.48   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    29.38R    6.17  
Crystal_Palace   15   13  -12      -0.14    50.55     0.24    30.85     5.95   -35.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.93R   41.76  
Sunderland       15    8  -18      -6.82     8.25    -9.25    32.44     6.26   -31.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.89R   29.42  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Birmingham 2 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         19   39  +17       7.71    89.35     9.11    81.82     7.68    25.70    24.21    44.25    86.82    55.14P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             19   39  +12       6.78    86.24     3.10    82.91     7.77    22.04    28.01    49.04    88.48    60.15P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       19   38  +10       5.99    83.14     0.92    81.78     7.70    20.30    23.62    42.80    85.66    54.29P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           19   34  +14       4.60    76.22     8.88    77.19     7.87    23.62    10.37    23.72    70.49    34.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   19   31   +7       2.77    67.02     3.65    70.51     7.79    10.80     1.94     5.79    36.50    12.91P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         19   31   +6      -0.23    48.51    -1.96    74.13     8.05    15.34     5.46    13.85    54.36    25.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       19   31   +2       2.93    68.00    -0.97    69.41     7.61     4.33     1.28     3.91    29.44     9.57P    0.09R    0.00  
Leeds_United    19   30   +6       3.39    70.62     5.21    68.80     7.82     8.64     1.23     3.83    28.60     8.91P    0.13R    0.01  
Ipswich         19   29   +6       3.19    69.98     6.34    66.16     7.81     6.16     0.56     1.82    18.67     5.16P    0.38R    0.03  
Brighton        19   28   +6      -2.03    37.17    -0.01    70.34     7.66    13.96     1.78     5.37    35.71    13.84P    0.07R    0.01  
Huddersfield    19   26   +2       1.87    62.43     4.81    60.36     7.61    -2.05     0.08     0.34     5.08     1.17P    2.28R    0.17  
Watford         19   25   +3      -4.05    26.00    -1.65    67.21     7.88    10.94     0.78     2.71    23.38     7.97P    0.36R    0.03  
Blackburn       19   24   +0      -2.03    37.46    -0.14    63.18     7.76     3.40     0.14     0.63     9.87     2.74P    1.15R    0.07  
Wigan           18   22   -1      -5.85    17.57    -5.73    64.42     8.19     5.25     0.41     1.37    14.75     5.15P    1.06R    0.08  
Bolton          19   22   -3      -5.65    18.45    -5.52    60.94     7.77    -0.03     0.09     0.37     6.23     1.87P    2.18R    0.22  
Bournemouth     19   22  -12       2.80    68.58    -0.33    51.27     7.76   -24.92     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.06P   23.79R    5.09  
Millwall        19   21  -14      -0.42    48.04    -6.82    51.48     7.54   -24.33     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.06P   21.96R    4.13  
Middlesbrough   19   20   +0      -5.63    18.52     0.74    55.84     7.74    -2.09     0.01     0.06     1.78     0.44P    8.07R    1.10  
Birmingham      19   20   -2      -6.93    13.42    -3.21    57.58     7.79    -1.04     0.02     0.10     2.70     0.75P    5.42R    0.64  
Doncaster       19   20  -14       1.34    60.35    -2.83    47.35     7.45   -28.85     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   41.48R   11.18  
Charlton        19   18   -7      -6.64    14.08    -5.17    52.90     7.65    -9.73     0.00     0.02     0.61     0.13P   15.28R    2.56  
Yeovil          19   16  -10      -2.19    37.16     1.98    43.57     7.41   -24.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   60.04R   23.49  
Sheff_Wed       18   14   -9      -6.94    11.51    -3.31    46.66     7.73   -17.57     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   42.41R   12.64  
Barnsley        19   14  -19      -4.65    21.80    -7.09    41.04     7.31   -35.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.79R   38.53  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Notts_County 3 1 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.69    95.60    15.54    88.96     7.79    38.57    23.90    58.30    97.71    68.43P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       6.05    83.34     4.82    95.43     7.62    44.27    62.40    84.74    99.63    89.95P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.14    90.14     6.81    78.51     7.88    17.68     2.20    10.42    74.70    24.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.34    84.10     3.18    79.68     7.81    18.37     3.07    13.14    78.92    28.55P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.96    61.44    -0.54    82.98     8.04    26.94     7.05    24.98    88.36    44.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.94    81.96     9.84    65.52     8.08     3.65     0.07     0.44    16.70     2.96P    1.15R    0.03  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.10    30.95    -0.78    75.87     7.85    23.23     1.17     6.33    64.87    23.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.05    73.76    12.67    62.60     7.92     5.58     0.02     0.22     9.77     1.79P    2.46R    0.09  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.30    79.71     3.95    63.74     8.08    -4.14     0.02     0.22    11.23     2.03P    2.41R    0.09  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.89    56.02     1.81    65.72     7.84     4.62     0.04     0.39    16.18     3.47P    0.99R    0.02  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.03    72.77     1.09    66.01     8.04    14.62     0.03     0.49    19.34     5.15P    1.11R    0.04  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.27    15.67    -6.36    64.27     8.15     4.69     0.03     0.32    13.37     3.44P    1.91R    0.09  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.73    39.84     2.30    56.41     7.62    -4.60     0.00     0.01     1.77     0.32P   11.51R    1.00  
Oldham          18   22   -2       0.05    51.15     2.06    55.67     7.84    -9.02     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.28P   14.55R    1.33  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.65    40.38    -1.37    54.13     7.64   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.12P   19.11R    2.02  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.64    46.98     1.67    54.38     7.61   -10.63     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.15P   18.43R    2.02  
Gillingham      20   21  -10      -1.30    43.18    -1.70    48.55     7.50   -23.04     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   46.05R    8.41  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.19    52.45    -4.37    49.89     7.56   -26.50     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P   39.56R    6.57  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.35    30.20    -6.83    54.91     7.76   -14.20     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.16P   17.35R    1.80  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.79     5.67   -11.18    55.60     7.79    -7.53     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.33P   14.40R    1.52  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.30    24.53    -5.70    47.89     7.57   -22.26     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   48.87R   10.20  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.57    40.67   -10.98    39.89     7.03   -46.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.52R   49.75  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.50     3.57    -6.42    53.54     8.18    -3.96     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.29P   21.55R    2.99  
Notts_County    20   14  -13     -11.20     3.59    -9.50    47.00     7.63   -17.19     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   52.04R   12.04  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Morecambe 0 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.80    72.44     8.94    76.45     7.74    23.03    18.93    48.08    82.02    57.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.51    59.30     2.13    77.02     7.68    20.18    19.81    50.75    83.61    60.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       3.15    69.02     2.45    76.12     7.76    16.89    16.62    45.26    80.12    54.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.15    62.92    -2.08    76.81     8.14    15.01    19.79    48.31    80.62    57.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.17    78.86     0.42    72.19     7.97     6.10     7.57    25.88    61.32    33.95P    0.05R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.79    85.59     2.69    70.47     7.80     3.69     4.71    18.79    52.63    25.67P    0.07R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.63    76.47     5.97    70.50     7.85    10.15     5.17    20.06    54.74    28.20P    0.10R    0.02  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.50    90.89    11.34    63.45     7.92    -0.80     0.82     4.89    21.91     7.79P    1.44R    0.44  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.76    72.51     4.63    66.39     7.79     4.19     1.82     9.17    33.86    14.35P    0.55R    0.18  
Morecambe            20   29   -2       2.60    66.02    -0.58    62.53     7.56    -4.87     0.47     3.08    17.18     5.91P    1.71R    0.49  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.75    45.84    -2.00    64.68     7.86     1.58     1.11     6.08    26.41    10.96P    1.16R    0.41  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.70    73.03     4.64    58.85     7.71    -7.25     0.14     1.19     8.74     2.51P    5.44R    1.97  
Cheltenham           20   26   -4      -1.36    42.05    -4.08    61.38     7.56    -4.19     0.28     2.13    14.02     4.90P    2.59R    0.86  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.64    28.70    -2.89    64.81     7.91     5.39     1.24     6.70    28.03    12.88P    0.93R    0.26  
Wycombe              19   23   -2      -2.27    36.67    -1.00    59.26     7.79    -3.01     0.23     1.52    10.01     3.61P    4.58R    1.65  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.60    46.75    -2.30    55.34     7.36   -10.45     0.04     0.27     3.10     0.87P   11.10R    4.50  
Portsmouth           19   22   -5      -7.46    13.03   -10.10    64.25     8.09     2.80     1.09     6.18    25.80    12.23P    1.50R    0.52  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.25    49.55     2.17    52.43     7.82   -13.33     0.02     0.18     1.94     0.52P   22.00R   10.93  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.47    35.37    -1.10    51.73     7.48   -13.37     0.01     0.08     1.23     0.37P   24.00R   11.59  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.24    10.06    -4.81    57.77     8.00    -0.29     0.11     1.03     7.96     3.10P    7.21R    2.91  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.45    29.41     0.94    51.14     7.51   -10.71     0.00     0.09     1.24     0.32P   25.56R   12.68  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.90    21.76    -1.21    53.36     7.66    -7.60     0.02     0.19     2.30     0.66P   17.05R    7.98  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.80    13.27    -6.07    50.66     7.59   -13.57     0.01     0.07     0.88     0.23P   28.09R   14.63  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.73    10.15    -8.10    47.52     7.61   -19.57     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.08P   44.83R   27.93  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 December 2013, Cambridge_Utd 3 0 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    21   48  +27      11.70    97.14    15.61    90.70     7.12    40.06    49.91    97.56    62.11P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            22   44  +24       4.22    73.74     8.41    87.60     6.87    40.74    30.09    94.42    49.34P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    21   39  +13       1.31    57.47    -1.12    81.79     7.11    26.71     9.12    77.34    27.54P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         22   39   +5       9.64    92.37     6.33    70.64     6.91     3.16     0.27    17.79     2.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          20   37  +11       2.46    64.81     0.32    80.93     7.23    23.97     7.11    72.93    24.82P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           22   36  +10      -2.48    35.39    -2.96    77.01     7.08    22.53     2.49    54.06    16.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.11    72.87     6.89    68.12     6.96     8.16     0.13    11.27     1.87P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead        21   35   +6       5.17    78.46     4.49    70.89     7.16     8.51     0.32    20.32     3.64P    0.03R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    22   34   -4       6.82    84.35     1.44    63.93     6.93    -9.94     0.03     3.55     0.45P    0.38R    0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.07    85.82     5.66    65.33     7.79    -2.78     0.08     7.40     1.05P    0.49R    0.00  
Halifax          22   31   +5       1.55    59.30     6.93    62.18     7.43     1.42     0.02     3.19     0.47P    0.89R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.18    37.11     0.53    67.89     7.35    11.45     0.14    12.19     2.57P    0.12R    0.00  
Welling          21   30   +3       3.93    72.26     7.53    65.18     7.51     4.32     0.05     6.44     1.08P    0.42R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.61    15.45    -7.39    69.65     7.21    13.40     0.24    17.01     4.57P    0.06R    0.00  
Macclesfield     21   26   -3      -2.72    34.17    -2.72    59.57     7.21    -4.25     0.00     1.29     0.20P    1.94R    0.01  
Lincoln_City     21   26   -3      -0.73    46.05     0.09    58.63     7.16    -5.34     0.00     0.87     0.14P    2.55R    0.01  
Woking           22   26   -6      -1.41    42.47    -0.92    53.18     6.87   -16.16     0.00     0.09     0.01P   11.04R    0.02  
Hereford         22   25   -3      -7.61    13.01    -6.62    57.74     6.96    -3.10     0.00     0.56     0.09P    2.81R    0.01  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.55    41.66    -5.38    49.37     6.98   -26.43     0.00     0.02     0.00    27.28R    0.27  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.82    45.75    -1.64    49.05     7.10   -22.70     0.00     0.01     0.00    28.27R    0.36  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.42    25.61    -8.26    60.50     7.31    10.24     0.00     1.70     0.47P    1.67R    0.01  
Chester          22   19  -15      -1.82    40.19    -0.60    44.07     6.80   -27.07     0.00     0.00     0.00P   56.55R    1.10  
Dartford         23   18  -23      -6.31    16.38   -10.94    42.91     6.52   -33.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.57R    1.51  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.73     0.17   -15.69    23.03     6.42   -63.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.88R   96.71  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10