Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 11 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 December 2013, Swansea 1 1 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          15   35  +19       4.64    81.54     3.52    78.08     6.58    37.92    35.93    61.81    79.37    90.00    98.48     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   30  +16       1.26    58.89     2.65    70.47     6.83    29.92     7.20    19.53    37.12    57.06    87.12     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   30  +13       1.30    59.05    -0.31    73.89     6.67    32.97    14.97    36.18    58.29    75.61    94.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         15   29  +26      -3.14    25.48     6.63    77.93     6.18    56.51    37.48    65.17    82.20    91.45    98.95     0.00     0.00  
Everton          15   28   +9       3.90    77.04     4.11    67.11     6.71    20.42     2.15     7.91    18.37    34.33    74.68     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        15   27   -1       3.52    74.84    -5.05    63.27     6.78     5.97     0.58     2.67     7.37    16.10    49.44     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        15   26   -1       7.45    92.49     3.19    55.81     6.77    -4.74     0.04     0.22     0.78     2.29    12.81     0.17R    0.01  
Southampton      15   23   +5       2.96    71.98     6.75    52.86     6.87     2.13     0.01     0.07     0.30     1.10     7.54     0.40R    0.02  
Man_Utd          15   22   +3      -5.85    13.13    -8.65    66.32     6.61    23.75     1.64     6.44    16.15    31.76    71.67     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          15   19   +1      -0.95    43.60     2.46    48.19     6.65    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     1.83     2.43R    0.18  
Aston_Villa      15   19   -2       1.71    63.65     3.54    47.38     6.58    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     1.30     3.23R    0.31  
Hull             15   18   -6       3.42    76.86     4.05    40.45     6.46   -19.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    21.33R    3.51  
Stoke            15   17   -5      -0.33    48.44     0.07    43.87     6.54   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.34     8.77R    1.07  
Norwich          15   17  -14       1.69    64.57    -3.89    41.27     6.49   -26.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    19.31R    3.40  
West_Brom        15   15   -4      -3.77    23.38    -0.36    44.93     6.72    -7.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.61     7.18R    0.88  
Cardiff          15   14  -11      -0.26    49.81    -1.39    37.44     6.41   -25.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    38.31R    9.44  
West_Ham         15   13   -6      -4.70    18.58    -1.54    39.96     6.53   -14.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    22.55R    4.26  
Fulham           15   13  -12      -4.56    19.23    -6.64    38.90     6.45   -22.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    29.05R    5.91  
Crystal_Palace   15   13  -12      -0.09    51.07     0.31    30.74     5.92   -36.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.56R   42.62  
Sunderland       15    8  -18      -6.94     7.99    -9.45    32.64     6.27   -31.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.69R   28.38  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Birmingham 2 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         19   39  +17       7.74    89.29     9.17    81.80     7.70    25.70    24.19    44.07    86.59    54.59P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             19   39  +12       6.80    86.31     3.14    82.97     7.73    22.09    28.13    49.59    88.97    61.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       19   38  +10       5.87    82.39     0.79    81.93     7.74    20.50    24.23    44.08    86.08    55.43P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           19   34  +14       4.75    77.05     9.15    76.96     7.79    23.32     9.61    22.34    69.86    33.49P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   19   31   +7       2.78    66.88     3.66    70.48     7.73    10.77     2.03     5.76    35.96    12.60P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         19   31   +6      -0.13    49.11    -1.77    74.00     8.07    15.13     5.33    13.30    53.83    24.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool       19   31   +2       2.94    67.73    -0.96    69.42     7.70     4.29     1.41     4.27    29.83     9.83P    0.12R    0.00  
Leeds_United    19   30   +6       3.31    70.27     4.99    68.93     7.81     8.84     1.25     3.93    29.21     9.24P    0.15R    0.00  
Ipswich         19   29   +6       3.08    69.17     6.16    66.27     7.83     6.32     0.57     1.94    18.95     5.32P    0.41R    0.02  
Brighton        19   28   +6      -2.02    37.38     0.04    70.29     7.61    13.88     1.70     5.08    35.70    13.56P    0.04R    0.00  
Huddersfield    19   26   +2       2.04    63.34     5.06    60.15     7.59    -2.36     0.06     0.27     4.84     1.10P    2.46R    0.22  
Watford         19   25   +3      -4.16    25.76    -1.81    67.30     7.88    11.15     0.85     2.69    23.53     8.30P    0.28R    0.01  
Blackburn       19   24   +0      -2.18    36.66    -0.39    63.35     7.73     3.59     0.16     0.77    10.46     2.91P    1.09R    0.08  
Wigan           18   22   -1      -5.77    17.61    -5.60    64.22     8.15     4.99     0.36     1.31    13.97     4.78P    1.15R    0.11  
Bolton          19   22   -3      -5.64    18.51    -5.49    60.85     7.74    -0.17     0.07     0.35     6.06     1.70P    2.32R    0.20  
Bournemouth     19   22  -12       2.84    69.11    -0.28    51.19     7.71   -25.05     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.07P   23.91R    5.01  
Millwall        19   21  -14      -0.44    48.27    -6.89    51.53     7.47   -24.21     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P   21.33R    4.09  
Middlesbrough   19   20   +0      -5.70    18.53     0.67    55.91     7.83    -1.95     0.01     0.07     1.81     0.43P    8.17R    1.10  
Birmingham      19   20   -2      -6.98    13.14    -3.31    57.73     7.81    -0.84     0.02     0.13     2.94     0.86P    5.21R    0.62  
Doncaster       19   20  -14       1.33    60.31    -2.81    47.32     7.46   -28.92     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   41.75R   11.42  
Charlton        19   18   -7      -6.72    13.77    -5.27    53.01     7.52    -9.57     0.00     0.02     0.56     0.15P   14.44R    2.43  
Yeovil          19   16  -10      -2.05    37.93     2.31    43.38     7.40   -25.12     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   61.22R   24.42  
Sheff_Wed       18   14   -9      -6.94    11.92    -3.36    46.76     7.81   -17.45     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   42.35R   12.48  
Barnsley        19   14  -19      -4.70    21.25    -7.19    41.13     7.27   -34.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   73.53R   37.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Notts_County 3 1 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.61    95.53    15.41    89.15     7.82    38.87    24.24    58.63    97.71    68.53P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       5.99    83.35     4.69    95.45     7.61    44.28    61.91    84.52    99.70    89.86P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.11    90.12     6.75    78.63     7.85    17.85     2.35    10.55    75.38    24.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.31    84.09     3.17    79.68     7.74    18.37     2.89    12.51    79.07    28.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.87    60.96    -0.70    83.12     7.99    27.17     7.17    25.34    89.21    45.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.81    81.63     9.63    65.67     8.11     3.96     0.10     0.50    16.92     2.95P    1.20R    0.05  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.09    31.06    -0.80    75.87     7.89    23.28     1.19     6.44    64.62    23.82P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.09    73.79    12.71    62.47     7.93     5.38     0.01     0.17     9.54     1.82P    2.53R    0.11  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.31    79.53     4.00    63.68     8.02    -4.27     0.01     0.21    10.92     1.83P    2.25R    0.09  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.99    56.56     1.98    65.61     7.79     4.46     0.03     0.30    15.67     3.39P    0.98R    0.05  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.12    73.32     1.19    65.91     8.06    14.44     0.06     0.53    19.02     4.88P    1.08R    0.04  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.17    16.16    -6.24    64.17     8.14     4.53     0.04     0.26    13.18     3.32P    2.04R    0.07  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.83    39.28     2.20    56.49     7.65    -4.49     0.00     0.01     1.81     0.30P   11.43R    1.03  
Oldham          18   22   -2       0.03    51.15     2.04    55.57     7.82    -9.10     0.00     0.01     1.57     0.25P   14.65R    1.42  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.61    40.73    -1.31    54.10     7.59   -12.32     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.14P   19.07R    1.97  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.59    47.25     1.70    54.47     7.67   -10.54     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.15P   17.96R    2.02  
Gillingham      20   21  -10      -1.41    42.52    -1.88    48.61     7.48   -22.86     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   45.50R    8.30  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.26    53.00    -4.33    49.79     7.45   -26.57     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   39.96R    6.61  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.31    30.36    -6.77    54.89     7.76   -14.25     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.17P   17.60R    1.84  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.72     5.78   -11.06    55.51     7.77    -7.64     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.28P   14.63R    1.48  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.25    24.66    -5.63    47.86     7.59   -22.30     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   49.13R   10.36  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.65    40.33   -11.08    39.98     7.11   -46.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.14R   49.61  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.38     3.80    -6.17    53.28     8.15    -4.38     0.00     0.01     0.99     0.25P   22.40R    3.21  
Notts_County    20   14  -13     -11.23     3.44    -9.51    47.10     7.62   -17.06     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   51.41R   11.76  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Morecambe 0 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.94    73.16     9.15    76.34     7.68    22.85    18.13    47.59    81.61    57.00P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.54    59.42     2.16    77.07     7.71    20.21    20.32    50.62    83.51    60.78P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       3.00    68.28     2.19    76.37     7.85    17.29    17.55    46.58    80.41    56.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.19    63.21    -2.02    76.76     8.06    14.95    19.34    47.99    80.59    57.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.11    78.56     0.35    72.28     7.91     6.23     7.43    25.89    61.80    33.80P    0.06R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.79    85.62     2.70    70.58     7.84     3.82     4.82    18.97    53.38    26.02P    0.15R    0.04  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.77    77.26     6.17    70.28     7.86     9.82     4.87    19.50    53.43    26.97P    0.13R    0.03  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.48    91.02    11.32    63.42     7.92    -0.90     0.83     4.64    21.54     7.39P    1.50R    0.44  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.77    72.65     4.63    66.40     7.79     4.17     1.89     9.10    33.60    14.31P    0.50R    0.13  
Morecambe            20   29   -2       2.62    65.99    -0.56    62.54     7.50    -4.89     0.48     3.01    17.03     5.79P    1.62R    0.48  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.76    45.60    -2.02    64.71     7.88     1.66     1.08     6.01    26.64    11.09P    1.07R    0.35  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.67    72.55     4.53    58.94     7.61    -7.12     0.13     1.15     8.57     2.50P    5.10R    1.83  
Cheltenham           20   26   -4      -1.43    41.93    -4.13    61.44     7.59    -4.11     0.31     2.32    14.18     5.07P    2.46R    0.82  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.74    27.97    -3.01    64.87     7.94     5.48     1.19     6.86    28.43    13.13P    0.95R    0.31  
Wycombe              19   23   -2      -2.36    35.98    -1.10    59.33     7.81    -2.93     0.22     1.57    10.27     3.63P    4.55R    1.65  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.62    46.75    -2.30    55.39     7.36   -10.37     0.02     0.28     3.19     0.85P   10.71R    4.39  
Portsmouth           19   22   -5      -7.45    13.15   -10.11    64.36     8.16     2.99     1.19     6.27    26.64    12.78P    1.51R    0.48  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.39    48.63     1.98    52.52     7.83   -13.20     0.03     0.17     1.98     0.53P   21.54R   10.48  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.49    35.25    -1.11    51.74     7.49   -13.35     0.00     0.10     1.21     0.32P   23.51R   11.73  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.07    10.49    -4.54    57.50     8.07    -0.68     0.14     1.08     7.53     2.90P    7.95R    3.26  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.32    30.22     1.17    50.90     7.53   -11.10     0.00     0.06     1.04     0.26P   26.26R   13.26  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.89    21.64    -1.21    53.35     7.63    -7.63     0.02     0.18     2.17     0.56P   16.82R    7.82  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.78    13.66    -6.05    50.60     7.66   -13.65     0.00     0.06     0.95     0.26P   28.68R   14.95  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.77    10.08    -8.20    47.48     7.61   -19.55     0.00     0.02     0.30     0.07P   44.89R   27.54  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 December 2013, Cambridge_Utd 3 0 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    21   48  +27      11.75    96.97    15.71    90.61     7.15    39.89    49.20    97.32    61.20P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            22   44  +24       4.27    74.01     8.47    87.57     6.90    40.68    30.58    94.48    49.82P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    21   39  +13       1.33    57.62    -1.12    81.83     7.13    26.78     9.29    77.85    28.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         22   39   +5       9.74    92.63     6.51    70.50     6.93     2.93     0.24    17.42     2.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          20   37  +11       2.47    64.89     0.32    80.92     7.30    24.02     7.11    73.20    24.79P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           22   36  +10      -2.39    35.93    -2.75    76.82     7.06    22.30     2.52    52.93    16.67P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       4.06    72.69     6.78    68.26     6.95     8.36     0.13    11.67     1.95P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead        21   35   +6       5.34    79.08     4.74    70.84     7.18     8.41     0.37    20.50     3.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    22   34   -4       6.75    84.01     1.38    63.99     6.91    -9.87     0.01     3.49     0.37P    0.39R    0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.25    86.73     5.89    65.13     7.67    -3.06     0.07     6.74     0.89P    0.46R    0.00  
Halifax          22   31   +5       1.64    59.87     7.09    62.05     7.41     1.23     0.01     3.00     0.46P    0.99R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.18    36.93     0.52    67.88     7.34    11.45     0.16    12.25     2.61P    0.13R    0.00  
Welling          21   30   +3       3.83    71.70     7.36    65.25     7.58     4.44     0.06     6.72     1.11P    0.50R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.80    14.70    -7.68    69.81     7.18    13.64     0.23    17.94     4.76P    0.05R    0.00  
Macclesfield     21   26   -3      -2.83    33.49    -2.84    59.63     7.23    -4.17     0.00     1.26     0.22P    1.99R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     21   26   -3      -0.79    45.94     0.03    58.64     7.20    -5.30     0.01     0.85     0.13P    2.73R    0.01  
Woking           22   26   -6      -1.37    42.46    -0.84    53.16     6.86   -16.22     0.00     0.07     0.01P   11.36R    0.04  
Hereford         22   25   -3      -7.60    13.14    -6.65    57.80     6.90    -3.04     0.00     0.54     0.09P    2.83R    0.01  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.46    42.13    -5.31    49.37     6.96   -26.45     0.00     0.03     0.00P   27.38R    0.26  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.92    44.98    -1.75    49.14     7.14   -22.53     0.00     0.02     0.00    27.84R    0.35  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.49    25.14    -8.33    60.46     7.31    10.15     0.00     1.72     0.50P    1.69R    0.01  
Chester          22   19  -15      -1.85    40.29    -0.71    44.20     6.87   -26.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.55R    1.06  
Dartford         23   18  -23      -6.40    16.15   -11.06    42.99     6.53   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.19R    1.41  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.75     0.14   -15.74    23.02     6.42   -62.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.84R   96.86  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10