Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 10 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 December 2013, Swansea 1 1 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          15   35  +19       4.68    81.67     3.57    78.05     6.56    37.87    35.63    62.07    79.59    90.28    98.64     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   30  +16       1.28    58.97     2.63    70.51     6.80    30.01     7.28    20.01    37.74    57.59    87.44     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   30  +13       1.32    59.19    -0.29    73.83     6.66    32.93    15.21    35.94    57.98    75.46    94.69     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         15   29  +26      -3.08    26.19     6.70    77.84     6.20    56.28    37.46    64.89    81.70    91.29    98.83     0.00     0.00  
Everton          15   28   +9       3.92    76.91     4.12    67.10     6.73    20.45     2.21     7.82    18.85    35.00    74.73     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        15   27   -1       3.48    74.53    -5.10    63.30     6.84     6.01     0.68     2.94     7.70    16.47    49.49     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        15   26   -1       7.44    92.23     3.16    55.79     6.74    -4.78     0.03     0.21     0.78     2.19    12.88     0.14R    0.01  
Southampton      15   23   +5       2.88    71.79     6.65    52.98     6.84     2.33     0.01     0.07     0.32     1.08     7.78     0.46R    0.02  
Man_Utd          15   22   +3      -5.66    14.04    -8.34    66.11     6.60    23.43     1.49     6.04    15.27    30.31    70.91     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          15   19   +1      -0.98    43.41     2.43    48.29     6.67    -3.12     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.17     1.90     2.31R    0.21  
Aston_Villa      15   19   -2       1.74    64.04     3.53    47.46     6.60    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     1.31     3.17R    0.33  
Hull             15   18   -6       3.50    77.65     4.19    40.32     6.44   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    21.99R    3.49  
Stoke            15   17   -5      -0.45    47.34    -0.10    43.96     6.55   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.39     8.72R    1.00  
Norwich          15   17  -14       1.63    64.33    -4.06    41.37     6.54   -26.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    18.92R    3.50  
West_Brom        15   15   -4      -3.82    23.19    -0.43    44.98     6.82    -7.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.67     7.48R    0.87  
Cardiff          15   14  -11      -0.22    49.98    -1.37    37.45     6.32   -25.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    37.80R    8.98  
West_Ham         15   13   -6      -4.72    18.32    -1.52    39.95     6.52   -14.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    22.24R    4.06  
Fulham           15   13  -12      -4.64    18.86    -6.72    39.01     6.48   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    28.88R    5.89  
Crystal_Palace   15   13  -12      -0.08    51.25     0.28    30.76     5.88   -35.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.40R   42.41  
Sunderland       15    8  -18      -6.88     8.16    -9.31    32.48     6.26   -31.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.50R   29.21  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Birmingham 2 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         19   39  +17       7.78    89.35     9.23    81.70     7.77    25.51    23.76    43.90    86.07    54.45P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             19   39  +12       6.67    85.87     2.95    83.00     7.70    22.21    28.36    49.52    88.88    60.85P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       19   38  +10       5.87    82.36     0.78    81.95     7.76    20.55    24.37    43.86    85.88    55.15P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           19   34  +14       4.83    77.32     9.26    76.97     7.81    23.27     9.53    22.37    69.60    33.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   19   31   +7       2.81    67.50     3.66    70.53     7.71    10.87     1.87     5.74    36.13    12.56P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         19   31   +6      -0.22    48.48    -1.92    74.12     8.05    15.33     5.46    13.52    54.49    25.10P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool       19   31   +2       2.87    67.63    -1.11    69.57     7.69     4.55     1.56     4.43    30.47    10.03P    0.08R    0.00  
Leeds_United    19   30   +6       3.33    70.43     5.08    68.86     7.79     8.73     1.21     3.75    28.79     8.88P    0.14R    0.01  
Ipswich         19   29   +6       3.04    69.01     6.14    66.29     7.78     6.40     0.56     1.82    18.90     5.07P    0.32R    0.02  
Brighton        19   28   +6      -2.00    37.56     0.06    70.27     7.61    13.86     1.67     5.13    35.48    13.71P    0.04R    0.01  
Huddersfield    19   26   +2       1.95    63.06     4.95    60.32     7.63    -2.07     0.06     0.28     5.09     1.24P    2.34R    0.21  
Watford         19   25   +3      -4.10    26.12    -1.76    67.25     7.89    10.97     0.87     2.89    23.40     8.20P    0.36R    0.02  
Blackburn       19   24   +0      -2.10    37.12    -0.27    63.31     7.77     3.55     0.20     0.73    10.28     2.91P    1.06R    0.08  
Wigan           18   22   -1      -5.86    17.51    -5.75    64.44     8.14     5.34     0.41     1.49    14.61     5.27P    1.04R    0.10  
Bolton          19   22   -3      -5.58    18.58    -5.38    60.73     7.77    -0.35     0.08     0.35     5.77     1.64P    2.50R    0.25  
Bournemouth     19   22  -12       2.85    69.00    -0.19    51.10     7.70   -25.23     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P   24.08R    5.05  
Millwall        19   21  -14      -0.42    48.33    -6.84    51.42     7.46   -24.40     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P   21.74R    4.16  
Middlesbrough   19   20   +0      -5.67    18.15     0.75    55.83     7.85    -2.07     0.02     0.07     1.88     0.46P    8.26R    1.13  
Birmingham      19   20   -2      -7.05    12.97    -3.42    57.85     7.82    -0.66     0.02     0.13     2.98     0.80P    4.92R    0.56  
Doncaster       19   20  -14       1.39    60.52    -2.78    47.29     7.40   -28.97     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P   41.66R   11.09  
Charlton        19   18   -7      -6.63    14.12    -5.16    52.91     7.59    -9.75     0.00     0.02     0.56     0.15P   14.86R    2.58  
Yeovil          19   16  -10      -2.10    38.02     2.16    43.43     7.45   -25.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    60.62R   24.28  
Sheff_Wed       18   14   -9      -6.92    11.72    -3.33    46.68     7.76   -17.58     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   42.55R   12.59  
Barnsley        19   14  -19      -4.67    21.77    -7.11    41.11     7.28   -35.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   73.34R   37.87  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Notts_County 3 1 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.82    95.76    15.72    88.86     7.83    38.38    23.31    57.88    97.60    68.13P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       5.93    83.27     4.63    95.60     7.65    44.49    63.22    85.40    99.67    90.56P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.18    90.15     6.86    78.57     7.78    17.73     2.17    10.43    75.35    23.76P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.36    84.13     3.28    79.53     7.75    18.18     2.67    12.19    78.51    27.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.93    61.02    -0.59    83.04     8.07    27.00     7.19    25.44    88.44    44.98P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.84    81.36     9.69    65.65     8.07     3.91     0.07     0.50    16.88     3.08P    1.20R    0.04  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.08    31.04    -0.76    75.87     7.86    23.26     1.18     6.44    65.11    23.80P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.17    74.42    12.86    62.40     7.91     5.31     0.02     0.18     9.36     1.75P    2.61R    0.11  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.31    79.47     3.99    63.61     8.12    -4.32     0.03     0.25    11.28     1.97P    2.42R    0.13  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.91    56.01     1.82    65.72     7.74     4.65     0.04     0.33    15.80     3.52P    1.02R    0.04  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.01    72.80     0.98    66.07     8.12    14.74     0.08     0.64    19.77     5.35P    1.14R    0.05  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.14    16.19    -6.25    64.17     8.11     4.54     0.02     0.28    13.05     3.43P    1.91R    0.08  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.72    39.76     2.35    56.43     7.62    -4.61     0.00     0.01     1.80     0.35P   11.53R    1.04  
Oldham          18   22   -2       0.12    51.83     2.15    55.57     7.86    -9.19     0.00     0.01     1.58     0.27P   14.80R    1.44  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.67    40.18    -1.34    54.20     7.65   -12.24     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.17P   19.24R    1.97  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.73    46.58     1.50    54.47     7.65   -10.48     0.00     0.01     0.97     0.19P   18.15R    1.98  
Gillingham      20   21  -10      -1.46    42.36    -1.99    48.71     7.49   -22.68     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   45.07R    8.21  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.13    52.12    -4.47    49.91     7.56   -26.42     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P   39.79R    6.67  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.35    30.41    -6.87    54.92     7.79   -14.17     0.00     0.01     1.14     0.22P   17.64R    1.82  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.80     5.53   -11.18    55.59     7.83    -7.52     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.29P   14.61R    1.58  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.31    24.62    -5.68    47.94     7.60   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   48.53R   10.27  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.62    40.51   -11.03    39.88     7.07   -46.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.49R   49.71  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.33     3.80    -6.07    53.13     8.11    -4.62     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.22P   22.73R    3.38  
Notts_County    20   14  -13     -11.26     3.50    -9.59    47.18     7.64   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   51.09R   11.49  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Morecambe 0 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.97    73.19     9.12    76.31     7.81    22.79    18.41    47.70    81.18    56.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.49    59.31     2.11    77.20     7.71    20.45    20.37    51.64    84.16    61.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       2.98    68.31     2.21    76.21     7.76    17.09    17.03    45.58    80.32    55.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.05    61.99    -2.19    76.91     8.06    15.22    20.00    48.50    81.07    58.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.19    79.29     0.42    72.17     7.81     6.05     7.05    25.10    61.66    33.41P    0.07R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.84    85.95     2.76    70.45     7.77     3.68     4.63    18.32    52.70    25.25P    0.11R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.67    76.59     6.02    70.37     7.90     9.96     5.05    19.91    53.75    27.38P    0.09R    0.01  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.57    91.17    11.37    63.33     7.91    -0.99     0.80     4.88    21.44     7.64P    1.49R    0.45  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.79    72.74     4.66    66.32     7.77     4.07     1.78     8.74    33.58    14.02P    0.54R    0.14  
Morecambe            20   29   -2       2.66    66.34    -0.45    62.51     7.56    -4.90     0.48     3.07    16.90     6.01P    1.81R    0.60  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.75    45.71    -1.97    64.72     7.85     1.61     1.15     6.14    26.64    11.14P    1.08R    0.32  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.73    73.09     4.63    58.87     7.71    -7.19     0.16     1.31     8.67     2.65P    5.31R    1.96  
Cheltenham           20   26   -4      -1.34    42.20    -4.04    61.29     7.57    -4.35     0.31     2.18    13.77     4.89P    2.50R    0.82  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.59    28.98    -2.79    64.79     7.96     5.33     1.18     6.76    28.13    13.01P    0.89R    0.26  
Wycombe              19   23   -2      -2.36    35.99    -1.10    59.34     7.78    -2.90     0.20     1.50    10.01     3.53P    4.65R    1.70  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.55    47.17    -2.21    55.39     7.36   -10.39     0.02     0.30     3.18     0.90P   10.89R    4.35  
Portsmouth           19   22   -5      -7.65    12.41   -10.35    64.57     8.10     3.27     1.21     6.58    27.29    12.99P    1.30R    0.46  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.34    49.01     2.03    52.48     7.83   -13.25     0.01     0.17     2.06     0.55P   21.55R   10.72  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.37    35.71    -0.98    51.61     7.50   -13.51     0.01     0.09     1.24     0.31P   24.14R   12.04  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.11    10.27    -4.62    57.61     8.04    -0.50     0.14     1.11     7.65     2.98P    7.75R    3.22  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.53    29.01     0.87    51.28     7.51   -10.56     0.01     0.10     1.15     0.27P   24.75R   12.13  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.88    21.54    -1.18    53.35     7.66    -7.62     0.01     0.22     2.34     0.72P   17.25R    7.87  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.82    13.13    -6.04    50.47     7.61   -13.87     0.00     0.07     0.82     0.26P   29.26R   15.42  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.83     9.96    -8.26    47.58     7.62   -19.48     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.08P   44.56R   27.48  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 December 2013, Cambridge_Utd 3 0 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton             5   13  +10       3.09    85.94     4.87    84.79    10.86    35.73    16.56    67.53    29.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton          5   12   +5       5.24    95.69     5.14    65.25    10.74     0.17     0.44     8.73     1.62P    1.49R    0.18  
Woking            5   12   +4       5.07    94.49     4.12    65.43    11.24    -2.59     0.64     9.93     1.86P    1.93R    0.23  
Cambridge_Utd     4   10   +9       3.68    92.35     7.64    77.70    11.41    25.39     6.16    42.31    13.62P    0.11R    0.00  
Wrexham           4    9   +5       1.86    73.19     2.46    89.55    10.83    43.60    29.91    81.35    45.90P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green      4    9   +5       2.52    81.00     3.50    76.24    11.21    20.52     4.22    36.80    11.27P    0.15R    0.01  
Gateshead         4    9   +2       3.63    90.25     2.20    67.57    11.36     3.01     0.87    13.67     2.88P    1.24R    0.14  
Hereford          5    8   +3      -1.20    34.48    -0.79    71.96    11.16    15.51     2.07    23.96     6.81P    0.45R    0.06  
Barnet            5    8   +2      -1.20    33.88    -1.75    80.85    11.58    29.04    10.05    53.76    22.76P    0.07R    0.00  
Kidderminster     4    7   +3      -0.09    49.42     0.35    84.06    11.20    36.15    15.13    64.85    29.30P    0.03R    0.00  
Grimsby           3    7   +3       1.45    74.28     0.78    82.21    11.34    29.31    11.49    58.24    23.59P    0.04R    0.00  
Halifax           5    6   +5      -0.61    42.26     5.60    57.51    12.70    -4.95     0.33     4.53     1.11P   11.01R    2.58  
Braintree_Town    5    6   -1      -0.10    49.19     0.45    57.77    10.91    -9.81     0.08     2.56     0.45P    7.30R    1.21  
Alfreton_Town     5    6   -6       0.22    53.46    -4.09    51.85    10.78   -26.51     0.01     0.73     0.10P   18.50R    4.37  
Macclesfield      4    4   -2      -1.58    30.33    -2.08    62.48    11.34    -1.28     0.30     6.48     1.35P    3.66R    0.59  
Lincoln_City      4    4   -3      -0.95    39.01    -2.04    56.92    11.17   -11.68     0.08     2.28     0.41P    9.16R    1.71  
Salisbury         3    3   -3       0.03    51.01    -0.88    44.93    12.85   -37.90     0.03     0.66     0.12P   43.33R   19.11  
Tamworth          3    3   -3      -0.16    46.81    -1.22    50.79    11.24   -22.83     0.03     0.70     0.09P   21.95R    5.84  
Welling           4    2   -2      -1.17    34.06     2.09    50.03    12.65   -18.62     0.06     1.27     0.27P   26.31R    8.80  
Chester           4    2   -3      -1.79    26.85    -0.11    45.28    12.23   -28.65     0.01     0.55     0.10P   40.42R   16.21  
Hyde_United       3    0   -6      -3.37     5.59    -4.48    45.64    11.17   -31.26     0.00     0.24     0.02P   37.69R   13.14  
Southport         4    0  -11      -3.60     5.14    -7.07    45.19    11.20   -35.97     0.00     0.21     0.04P   39.98R   15.06  
Dartford          6    0  -13      -5.63     1.37    -8.53    46.56    10.57   -28.15     0.00     0.15     0.02P   33.81R   10.56  
Aldershot         4   -4   -3      -1.32    29.42    -6.18    68.71    11.98    21.78     1.52    18.49     6.81P    1.38R    0.20  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10