Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 9 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 December 2013, Swansea 1 1 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          15   35  +19       4.67    81.94     3.56    78.02     6.62    37.81    35.52    61.56    79.33    89.98    98.50     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   30  +16       1.28    58.95     2.68    70.41     6.82    29.93     7.01    19.54    36.92    56.75    87.23     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   30  +13       1.21    58.47    -0.41    73.99     6.61    33.16    15.33    36.73    58.92    76.15    94.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         15   29  +26      -3.11    25.74     6.65    77.88     6.22    56.41    37.61    64.99    81.90    91.43    98.83     0.00     0.00  
Everton          15   28   +9       3.89    76.86     4.05    67.14     6.74    20.50     2.38     8.10    18.65    35.14    74.86     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham        15   27   -1       3.53    74.83    -5.08    63.30     6.77     5.99     0.63     2.69     7.45    16.21    49.41     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        15   26   -1       7.49    92.66     3.25    55.81     6.78    -4.77     0.05     0.22     0.82     2.40    13.08     0.12R    0.00  
Southampton      15   23   +5       2.93    72.03     6.71    52.90     6.83     2.20     0.01     0.08     0.29     1.01     7.60     0.47R    0.02  
Man_Utd          15   22   +3      -5.65    13.95    -8.35    66.15     6.64    23.38     1.47     6.09    15.64    30.58    71.07     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          15   19   +1      -1.00    42.96     2.37    48.27     6.63    -3.10     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.18     1.77     2.39R    0.19  
Aston_Villa      15   19   -2       1.66    63.35     3.43    47.47     6.61    -7.88     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.11     1.31     3.21R    0.31  
Hull             15   18   -6       3.46    77.19     4.13    40.39     6.46   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    21.40R    3.36  
Stoke            15   17   -5      -0.36    47.98     0.02    43.95     6.53   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.35     8.44R    0.95  
Norwich          15   17  -14       1.71    64.78    -3.89    41.28     6.54   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    19.54R    3.38  
West_Brom        15   15   -4      -3.78    23.58    -0.41    44.87     6.83    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.64     7.69R    0.94  
Cardiff          15   14  -11      -0.19    50.49    -1.31    37.39     6.39   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02    38.32R    9.22  
West_Ham         15   13   -6      -4.82    17.72    -1.67    40.08     6.51   -13.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    21.66R    4.03  
Fulham           15   13  -12      -4.64    19.07    -6.78    39.01     6.50   -22.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    28.64R    5.90  
Crystal_Palace   15   13  -12      -0.06    51.17     0.34    30.70     5.90   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.69R   42.32  
Sunderland       15    8  -18      -6.88     8.12    -9.31    32.46     6.27   -31.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.44R   29.38  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Birmingham 2 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         19   39  +17       7.67    89.24     9.00    81.88     7.65    25.82    24.22    44.44    86.76    55.10P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             19   39  +12       6.78    86.12     3.09    82.87     7.79    21.99    27.58    48.47    88.30    60.02P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       19   38  +10       5.75    82.05     0.59    82.09     7.72    20.74    24.99    44.67    86.75    56.06P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           19   34  +14       4.71    76.75     9.06    77.16     7.83    23.56    10.07    23.16    70.28    34.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   19   31   +7       2.80    67.12     3.68    70.48     7.73    10.80     1.82     5.67    35.82    12.39P    0.06R    0.01  
Reading         19   31   +6      -0.13    48.82    -1.80    73.95     8.01    15.06     4.94    12.79    53.87    24.19P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool       19   31   +2       2.97    67.88    -0.91    69.37     7.72     4.23     1.47     4.18    29.53     9.66P    0.10R    0.00  
Leeds_United    19   30   +6       3.25    70.00     4.94    68.92     7.81     8.88     1.18     3.83    29.08     9.07P    0.12R    0.00  
Ipswich         19   29   +6       3.19    69.66     6.31    66.16     7.79     6.19     0.55     1.84    18.63     5.08P    0.36R    0.03  
Brighton        19   28   +6      -2.05    37.11     0.03    70.25     7.66    13.90     1.60     5.08    35.68    13.80P    0.07R    0.00  
Huddersfield    19   26   +2       2.02    63.10     5.05    60.20     7.61    -2.29     0.05     0.26     5.08     1.06P    2.46R    0.21  
Watford         19   25   +3      -4.18    25.75    -1.85    67.35     7.90    11.11     0.83     2.91    23.77     8.23P    0.33R    0.01  
Blackburn       19   24   +0      -2.05    37.32    -0.19    63.31     7.79     3.52     0.18     0.80    10.29     3.04P    1.10R    0.10  
Wigan           18   22   -1      -5.82    17.79    -5.67    64.36     8.16     5.20     0.39     1.38    14.41     5.08P    0.98R    0.11  
Bolton          19   22   -3      -5.54    18.77    -5.33    60.66     7.76    -0.40     0.07     0.31     5.56     1.60P    2.48R    0.25  
Bournemouth     19   22  -12       2.86    69.28    -0.18    51.14     7.70   -25.20     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.06P   24.05R    5.20  
Millwall        19   21  -14      -0.46    48.12    -6.93    51.55     7.46   -24.19     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P   21.42R    3.95  
Middlesbrough   19   20   +0      -5.72    18.10     0.63    55.94     7.80    -1.89     0.01     0.08     1.92     0.50P    7.92R    1.11  
Birmingham      19   20   -2      -7.05    12.85    -3.36    57.80     7.79    -0.73     0.03     0.12     2.89     0.82P    5.19R    0.61  
Doncaster       19   20  -14       1.39    60.51    -2.71    47.27     7.38   -29.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   41.70R   11.41  
Charlton        19   18   -7      -6.57    14.27    -5.08    52.88     7.49    -9.78     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.14P   14.84R    2.40  
Yeovil          19   16  -10      -2.10    37.92     2.20    43.49     7.46   -24.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    60.38R   24.45  
Sheff_Wed       18   14   -9      -6.88    12.02    -3.26    46.52     7.72   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   43.42R   12.94  
Barnsley        19   14  -19      -4.76    21.00    -7.32    41.27     7.29   -34.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.97R   37.21  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Notts_County 3 1 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.70    95.75    15.55    88.93     7.83    38.46    24.04    58.12    97.58    68.32P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       6.06    83.39     4.82    95.33     7.73    44.15    61.91    84.42    99.61    89.89P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.09    89.97     6.74    78.58     7.73    17.77     2.25    10.26    75.19    23.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.26    83.75     3.06    79.73     7.83    18.47     3.06    13.30    79.10    28.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.94    61.41    -0.57    83.05     7.98    27.02     7.36    25.49    88.88    45.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.91    82.04     9.81    65.62     8.04     3.80     0.05     0.49    16.59     3.03P    1.19R    0.03  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.07    30.95    -0.72    75.80     7.86    23.21     1.13     6.25    64.44    23.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.04    73.35    12.68    62.64     7.92     5.65     0.01     0.22     9.82     1.83P    2.41R    0.09  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.31    79.64     4.00    63.60     8.04    -4.38     0.04     0.20    10.79     1.85P    2.43R    0.09  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.79    55.45     1.65    65.93     7.80     4.92     0.04     0.36    16.53     3.53P    0.96R    0.03  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.03    72.84     1.08    66.07     8.02    14.70     0.08     0.57    19.45     5.01P    0.98R    0.05  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.12    16.39    -6.18    64.05     8.12     4.36     0.03     0.27    12.74     3.24P    2.16R    0.08  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.73    40.02     2.34    56.40     7.66    -4.66     0.00     0.02     1.82     0.31P   11.47R    1.03  
Oldham          18   22   -2       0.05    51.36     2.03    55.57     7.81    -9.10     0.00     0.01     1.57     0.27P   14.68R    1.41  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.67    40.34    -1.39    54.26     7.59   -12.14     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.18P   18.34R    1.87  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.58    47.42     1.75    54.31     7.66   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.17P   18.49R    2.21  
Gillingham      20   21  -10      -1.39    42.62    -1.89    48.52     7.46   -22.92     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   45.87R    8.49  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.31    53.13    -4.18    49.70     7.55   -26.78     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   40.70R    7.04  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.38    30.05    -6.89    55.00     7.80   -14.10     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.22P   17.41R    1.70  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.80     5.71   -11.18    55.64     7.77    -7.41     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.35P   14.25R    1.49  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.32    24.55    -5.72    47.92     7.57   -22.16     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   48.78R   10.09  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.59    40.72   -11.03    39.93     7.10   -46.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.39R   49.60  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.31     3.83    -6.07    53.21     8.20    -4.49     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.23P   23.03R    3.26  
Notts_County    20   14  -13     -11.32     3.32    -9.66    47.25     7.65   -16.83     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   50.45R   11.44  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Morecambe 0 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.92    72.98     9.10    76.41     7.79    22.96    18.55    47.94    81.68    57.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.59    59.83     2.21    77.06     7.76    20.24    20.08    50.54    83.66    60.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       2.98    68.19     2.17    76.35     7.79    17.24    17.38    46.40    80.65    56.29P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.08    62.58    -2.16    76.92     8.05    15.22    19.66    48.54    81.42    58.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.20    79.11     0.42    72.16     7.95     6.06     7.45    25.50    61.15    33.55P    0.05R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.82    85.91     2.75    70.52     7.81     3.72     4.60    18.80    53.12    25.71P    0.11R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.62    76.49     6.01    70.37     7.93     9.99     5.03    19.75    54.08    27.57P    0.10R    0.02  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.62    91.47    11.49    63.22     7.92    -1.13     0.84     4.54    20.85     7.20P    1.66R    0.48  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.81    72.61     4.67    66.36     7.79     4.13     1.83     8.92    33.70    14.20P    0.55R    0.18  
Morecambe            20   29   -2       2.54    65.62    -0.66    62.60     7.56    -4.80     0.44     3.19    17.17     6.08P    1.83R    0.56  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.75    45.58    -2.02    64.71     7.87     1.66     1.00     6.17    26.79    11.09P    1.05R    0.36  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.66    72.67     4.51    58.93     7.60    -7.15     0.15     1.14     8.51     2.38P    5.06R    1.74  
Cheltenham           20   26   -4      -1.43    41.73    -4.11    61.34     7.58    -4.26     0.31     2.27    14.00     4.91P    2.48R    0.76  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.67    28.55    -2.89    64.81     7.91     5.36     1.18     6.51    28.01    12.56P    0.98R    0.27  
Wycombe              19   23   -2      -2.37    35.66    -1.07    59.36     7.84    -2.89     0.24     1.61    10.22     3.65P    4.69R    1.78  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.52    47.51    -2.15    55.29     7.37   -10.51     0.03     0.31     3.25     0.94P   11.15R    4.49  
Portsmouth           19   22   -5      -7.46    13.28   -10.11    64.30     8.16     2.92     1.10     6.23    26.58    12.77P    1.67R    0.56  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.40    48.99     1.97    52.53     7.82   -13.14     0.02     0.17     2.03     0.53P   21.63R   10.71  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.42    35.33    -1.02    51.74     7.51   -13.37     0.01     0.08     1.12     0.28P   23.54R   11.80  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.04    10.50    -4.50    57.44     8.03    -0.74     0.10     1.03     7.36     2.93P    7.78R    3.34  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.46    29.07     0.95    51.20     7.54   -10.70     0.00     0.09     1.13     0.32P   25.13R   12.53  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.92    21.83    -1.25    53.31     7.67    -7.68     0.01     0.20     2.27     0.63P   17.47R    8.21  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.76    13.56    -6.01    50.61     7.63   -13.66     0.00     0.06     0.92     0.25P   28.63R   14.77  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.85     9.94    -8.30    47.62     7.64   -19.45     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.08P   44.42R   27.38  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Alfreton_Town 0 5 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton             5   13  +10       3.03    85.39     4.73    84.98    11.00    36.08    14.33    66.78    27.51P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton          5   12   +5       5.20    95.46     5.11    65.07    10.78    -0.28     0.29     7.93     1.43P    1.47R    0.11  
Wrexham           4    9   +5       1.84    72.93     2.39    89.94    10.99    44.45    27.22    80.89    43.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green      4    9   +5       2.52    81.04     3.49    76.63    11.43    21.05     3.92    37.01    10.89P    0.12R    0.01  
Woking            4    9   +3       3.22    86.72     2.68    62.39    11.67    -6.70     0.30     6.57     1.06P    3.74R    0.54  
Hereford          5    8   +3      -1.13    35.58    -0.65    71.99    11.22    15.67     1.60    23.18     6.13P    0.37R    0.04  
Barnet            5    8   +2      -1.30    32.79    -1.93    81.35    11.61    29.97     8.81    54.09    21.91P    0.05R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd     3    7   +6       2.72    89.22     5.71    74.13    11.84    19.05     2.94    29.75     8.14P    0.36R    0.04  
Kidderminster     3    7   +4       1.52    75.97     1.70    87.89    11.61    42.04    22.08    74.79    36.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Halifax           5    6   +5      -0.71    41.16     5.43    57.65    12.76    -4.79     0.25     4.48     1.03P   10.17R    2.40  
Grimsby           2    6   +3       2.58    88.14     1.99    85.22    11.67    33.88    15.66    66.49    29.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead         3    6   +1       1.91    77.86     1.07    64.87    11.75     0.04     0.49     9.38     1.86P    2.43R    0.30  
Braintree_Town    5    6   -1      -0.10    48.89     0.46    57.92    11.19    -9.75     0.07     2.63     0.36P    7.19R    1.35  
Alfreton_Town     5    6   -6       0.20    53.05    -4.12    51.55    10.84   -27.29     0.01     0.69     0.09P   18.47R    4.27  
Chester           5    5   -2      -0.06    52.31     1.05    48.26    12.05   -25.26     0.01     0.67     0.12P   29.83R    9.56  
Macclesfield      3    4   +1      -0.77    40.23    -0.00    65.52    11.76     4.50     0.60    10.58     2.28P    2.01R    0.27  
Lincoln_City      3    4   -2       0.47    61.59    -0.98    59.69    11.71    -8.73     0.14     4.22     0.72P    6.21R    1.20  
Salisbury         3    3   -3       0.11    52.82    -0.71    44.96    13.07   -38.34     0.01     0.79     0.11P   42.35R   18.57  
Tamworth          3    3   -3      -0.05    48.70    -0.97    50.82    11.33   -22.89     0.01     0.66     0.09P   21.29R    5.62  
Welling           3    1   -2      -1.48    29.65     0.98    47.83    13.19   -23.79     0.05     1.01     0.21P   32.52R   12.37  
Hyde_United       4    0   -7      -4.91     1.90    -5.70    42.30    10.83   -36.23     0.00     0.09     0.02P   48.64R   19.24  
Southport         4    0  -11      -3.55     5.39    -7.01    45.26    11.33   -36.07     0.01     0.20     0.03P   38.70R   14.02  
Dartford          6    0  -13      -5.62     1.48    -8.46    46.59    10.60   -28.23     0.00     0.12     0.03P   32.66R    9.86  
Aldershot         4   -4   -3      -1.39    29.01    -6.25    68.57    12.02    21.62     1.17    16.96     6.18P    1.38R    0.24  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10