Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 7 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Crystal_Palace 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          14   34  +19       5.36    86.35     3.92    79.35     6.84    39.43    41.99    67.58    83.31    91.98    98.79     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   30  +16       1.27    59.01     2.66    70.44     6.83    29.90     6.46    18.62    36.29    56.95    87.44     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   30  +13       1.25    58.98    -0.36    73.81     6.61    32.87    13.15    33.70    57.49    75.57    94.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         15   29  +26      -3.10    26.09     6.62    77.90     6.19    56.47    34.40    64.13    81.82    91.55    98.82     0.00     0.00  
Everton          14   27   +9       3.87    77.48     3.46    66.80     6.94    19.38     2.11     7.56    17.75    33.12    72.15     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        15   27   -1       3.49    74.64    -5.11    63.38     6.82     6.14     0.60     2.71     7.58    16.61    49.91     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        15   26   -1       7.41    92.33     3.14    55.77     6.75    -4.81     0.03     0.20     0.70     2.21    12.83     0.13R    0.00  
Southampton      15   23   +5       2.90    71.74     6.63    52.98     6.84     2.30     0.01     0.07     0.31     1.06     7.75     0.39R    0.03  
Man_Utd          15   22   +3      -5.66    13.92    -8.34    66.11     6.58    23.38     1.25     5.40    14.60    30.33    70.69     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      14   19   +0       2.54    69.90     4.72    49.06     6.83    -5.52     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.25     2.53     1.88R    0.16  
Swansea          14   18   +1      -0.15    49.49     3.03    49.40     6.83    -2.05     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.29     2.84     1.63R    0.11  
Stoke            15   17   -5      -0.45    47.51    -0.08    43.96     6.56   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.41     7.91R    0.95  
Hull             14   17   -6       3.37    77.34     3.54    39.99     6.57   -20.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    22.70R    3.92  
Norwich          15   17  -14       1.70    64.45    -3.90    41.33     6.55   -26.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15    18.29R    3.14  
West_Brom        15   15   -4      -3.71    23.91    -0.30    44.92     6.80    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.60     6.98R    0.83  
Cardiff          15   14  -11      -0.29    49.49    -1.41    37.46     6.35   -25.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    35.87R    8.46  
West_Ham         15   13   -6      -4.75    18.14    -1.58    40.01     6.51   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    20.91R    3.76  
Crystal_Palace   15   13  -12      -0.05    51.37     0.35    30.66     5.91   -36.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.52R   41.10  
Fulham           14   10  -14      -5.68    12.48    -7.81    37.09     6.69   -24.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    38.01R    9.74  
Sunderland       15    8  -18      -6.80     8.43    -9.18    32.45     6.28   -31.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.77R   27.80  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Birmingham 2 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         19   39  +17       7.90    89.82     9.33    81.62     7.73    25.42    23.39    43.31    86.12    54.11P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             19   39  +12       6.64    85.59     2.89    83.13     7.77    22.27    29.17    50.21    89.14    61.56P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       19   38  +10       5.94    82.72     0.87    81.86     7.75    20.41    24.11    43.47    85.81    54.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           19   34  +14       4.62    76.37     8.94    77.16     7.83    23.56    10.05    23.37    70.45    34.23P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   19   31   +7       2.77    66.90     3.64    70.45     7.74    10.78     1.84     5.57    35.95    12.44P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         19   31   +6      -0.16    48.98    -1.81    74.04     8.03    15.22     5.19    13.25    54.14    24.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool       19   31   +2       2.96    68.24    -0.95    69.53     7.65     4.48     1.30     4.20    30.44     9.82P    0.07R    0.01  
Leeds_United    19   30   +6       3.33    70.40     5.11    68.78     7.83     8.61     1.21     3.85    28.64     9.12P    0.15R    0.01  
Ipswich         19   29   +6       3.14    69.46     6.29    66.20     7.80     6.22     0.56     1.89    18.84     5.18P    0.40R    0.04  
Brighton        19   28   +6      -1.99    37.32     0.09    70.26     7.62    13.87     1.61     5.15    35.53    13.76P    0.07R    0.00  
Huddersfield    19   26   +2       2.06    63.52     5.07    60.20     7.64    -2.27     0.06     0.28     5.11     1.17P    2.57R    0.25  
Watford         19   25   +3      -4.22    25.43    -1.94    67.45     7.86    11.36     0.85     2.92    24.28     8.38P    0.27R    0.02  
Blackburn       19   24   +0      -1.97    37.96    -0.10    63.07     7.73     3.20     0.14     0.70     9.90     2.88P    1.22R    0.11  
Wigan           18   22   -1      -5.79    17.77    -5.64    64.23     8.10     4.99     0.37     1.32    13.86     4.80P    1.03R    0.09  
Bolton          19   22   -3      -5.51    19.04    -5.24    60.67     7.72    -0.42     0.08     0.32     5.66     1.65P    2.42R    0.23  
Bournemouth     19   22  -12       2.82    68.85    -0.28    51.12     7.71   -25.13     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.06P   24.19R    5.24  
Millwall        19   21  -14      -0.60    47.03    -7.14    51.71     7.50   -23.91     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   20.99R    3.97  
Middlesbrough   19   20   +0      -5.70    18.10     0.66    55.91     7.77    -1.93     0.02     0.07     1.87     0.46P    8.00R    1.04  
Birmingham      19   20   -2      -6.94    13.18    -3.26    57.77     7.71    -0.77     0.03     0.10     2.93     0.76P    5.01R    0.62  
Doncaster       19   20  -14       1.23    59.68    -2.99    47.47     7.40   -28.69     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   41.09R   10.65  
Charlton        19   18   -7      -6.66    13.93    -5.19    52.96     7.56    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.13P   14.90R    2.50  
Yeovil          19   16  -10      -2.00    38.43     2.32    43.26     7.36   -25.27     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   61.97R   25.19  
Sheff_Wed       18   14   -9      -6.94    11.26    -3.36    46.71     7.71   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   42.42R   12.69  
Barnsley        19   14  -19      -4.80    21.05    -7.33    41.21     7.28   -34.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.14R   37.34  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Notts_County 3 1 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.80    95.78    15.64    88.84     7.89    38.42    23.46    57.64    97.41    67.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       6.00    83.36     4.69    95.47     7.68    44.32    62.78    84.92    99.60    90.21P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.02    89.87     6.66    78.63     7.78    17.87     2.10    10.18    75.44    24.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.32    83.90     3.18    79.58     7.76    18.25     2.88    12.58    78.92    28.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.88    60.86    -0.65    83.08     8.04    27.11     7.29    25.98    88.54    45.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.85    81.22     9.68    65.62     8.11     3.89     0.09     0.49    16.98     3.14P    1.23R    0.05  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.02    31.42    -0.68    75.80     7.92    23.16     1.20     6.55    64.42    23.86P    0.03R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.07    73.65    12.74    62.58     7.89     5.54     0.02     0.18     9.64     1.74P    2.37R    0.12  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.21    78.98     3.84    63.83     8.05    -4.05     0.02     0.25    11.25     1.98P    2.32R    0.13  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.86    56.04     1.76    65.80     7.79     4.74     0.04     0.36    16.23     3.47P    1.05R    0.01  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.12    73.30     1.22    65.95     8.08    14.48     0.06     0.53    19.55     5.14P    1.07R    0.07  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.16    16.47    -6.24    64.18     8.12     4.56     0.04     0.29    13.22     3.41P    2.09R    0.11  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.75    39.81     2.29    56.47     7.59    -4.53     0.00     0.01     1.75     0.29P   11.18R    0.94  
Oldham          18   22   -2       0.01    50.95     2.02    55.63     7.79    -9.06     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.27P   14.34R    1.36  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.67    40.30    -1.41    54.16     7.64   -12.20     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.17P   18.93R    1.96  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.64    46.92     1.63    54.45     7.69   -10.49     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.13P   18.24R    2.06  
Gillingham      20   21  -10      -1.34    43.00    -1.80    48.56     7.55   -22.96     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   45.72R    8.61  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.17    52.32    -4.38    49.83     7.49   -26.52     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   39.69R    6.40  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.35    30.07    -6.83    54.90     7.71   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.16P   17.30R    1.69  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.72     5.63   -11.07    55.52     7.75    -7.62     0.00     0.01     1.32     0.33P   14.59R    1.48  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.32    24.40    -5.71    47.88     7.59   -22.26     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   48.87R   10.30  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.61    40.75   -11.02    39.96     7.10   -46.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.46R   49.28  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.37     3.82    -6.18    53.35     8.18    -4.31     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.24P   22.34R    3.24  
Notts_County    20   14  -13     -11.12     3.67    -9.36    46.95     7.59   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   52.17R   12.20  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Morecambe 0 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.93    73.31     9.11    76.32     7.77    22.84    18.32    47.50    81.66    56.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.59    59.51     2.26    76.96     7.75    20.11    19.83    50.23    83.00    60.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       2.95    68.17     2.16    76.28     7.76    17.16    16.96    46.02    80.69    55.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.02    62.01    -2.25    76.94     8.11    15.22    20.22    48.81    81.10    58.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.15    78.84     0.34    72.32     7.92     6.33     7.59    26.35    61.66    34.25P    0.06R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.82    85.55     2.71    70.59     7.84     3.86     4.84    18.91    53.13    25.97P    0.11R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.54    76.14     5.86    70.51     7.87    10.17     5.15    20.24    54.77    28.14P    0.10R    0.03  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.56    91.01    11.39    63.33     7.90    -0.96     0.81     4.54    21.33     7.24P    1.46R    0.45  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.78    72.76     4.63    66.44     7.71     4.23     1.77     8.86    33.78    14.16P    0.51R    0.17  
Morecambe            20   29   -2       2.57    65.81    -0.64    62.67     7.51    -4.71     0.44     3.13    17.37     6.05P    1.65R    0.51  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.71    45.99    -1.94    64.60     7.86     1.48     1.00     5.97    26.08    10.89P    1.14R    0.36  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.78    73.37     4.70    58.85     7.63    -7.27     0.15     1.16     8.27     2.44P    5.25R    1.92  
Cheltenham           20   26   -4      -1.45    41.53    -4.14    61.42     7.56    -4.15     0.26     2.28    14.11     5.03P    2.46R    0.75  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.57    29.04    -2.79    64.73     7.89     5.29     1.13     6.34    27.50    12.47P    0.83R    0.23  
Wycombe              19   23   -2      -2.30    36.20    -1.01    59.29     7.78    -3.01     0.18     1.46    10.15     3.53P    4.63R    1.66  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.68    46.38    -2.37    55.45     7.39   -10.28     0.04     0.34     3.29     0.95P   10.71R    4.35  
Portsmouth           19   22   -5      -7.52    12.88   -10.22    64.41     8.09     3.06     1.13     6.16    26.95    12.52P    1.40R    0.49  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.29    49.33     2.16    52.35     7.89   -13.44     0.01     0.19     1.96     0.53P   22.46R   11.35  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.40    35.38    -0.99    51.61     7.44   -13.56     0.00     0.08     1.17     0.25P   23.96R   11.85  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.09    10.39    -4.60    57.55     8.01    -0.58     0.14     1.07     7.59     2.93P    7.68R    3.15  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.41    29.54     1.02    51.09     7.51   -10.85     0.00     0.08     1.04     0.27P   25.42R   12.74  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.78    22.53    -1.07    53.15     7.67    -7.91     0.02     0.20     2.13     0.67P   17.85R    8.42  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.82    13.44    -6.09    50.63     7.60   -13.60     0.00     0.06     0.91     0.29P   28.00R   14.41  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.79    10.14    -8.22    47.60     7.64   -19.42     0.00     0.02     0.34     0.08P   44.26R   27.11  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 December 2013, Alfreton_Town 0 5 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.17    96.69    14.28    89.04     7.33    36.96    39.15    95.37    53.07P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            22   44  +24       4.31    74.06     8.59    87.49     6.96    40.58    30.85    93.93    49.43P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.56    65.29    -0.49    83.96     7.36    29.04    15.66    84.40    34.69P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         22   39   +5       9.65    92.45     6.36    70.60     6.94     3.04     0.30    17.31     2.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.33    70.11     1.03    82.13     7.49    25.30    10.55    77.14    28.13P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           22   36  +10      -2.39    35.95    -2.71    76.79     7.09    22.25     2.50    52.32    16.18P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   35   +8       3.99    72.36     6.72    68.30     6.96     8.46     0.13    11.48     1.83P    0.04R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    22   34   -4       6.80    84.33     1.45    63.96     6.86    -9.92     0.02     3.27     0.38P    0.31R    0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.15    86.40     5.71    65.37     7.70    -2.70     0.11     6.88     1.12P    0.36R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.87    72.75     4.05    68.43     7.48     6.18     0.20    12.92     2.36P    0.08R    0.00  
Halifax          22   31   +5       1.48    59.15     6.80    62.25     7.37     1.61     0.02     2.92     0.45P    0.81R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.35    36.13     0.28    68.10     7.34    11.73     0.15    12.52     2.76P    0.11R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.94    72.69     6.97    64.66     7.78     2.85     0.08     6.17     1.01P    0.60R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.74    14.98    -7.53    69.68     7.23    13.45     0.27    17.02     4.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.60    34.17    -1.64    61.19     7.36    -0.88     0.01     2.16     0.39P    1.17R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.45    53.53     0.80    60.74     7.38    -3.31     0.01     1.81     0.29P    1.36R    0.00  
Hereford         22   25   -3      -7.63    12.99    -6.67    57.83     6.97    -3.04     0.00     0.59     0.12P    2.78R    0.00  
Woking           21   23   -7      -2.95    33.08    -1.71    50.89     7.04   -18.41     0.00     0.05     0.01P   18.15R    0.07  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.49    42.03    -5.31    49.30     6.98   -26.56     0.00     0.01     0.00P   26.18R    0.23  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.94    44.87    -1.72    49.20     7.12   -22.43     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.27R    0.28  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.39    25.57    -8.20    60.43     7.37    10.08     0.00     1.72     0.54P    1.66R    0.01  
Chester          22   19  -15      -1.64    41.26    -0.34    43.91     6.80   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.00P   56.47R    1.08  
Dartford         23   18  -23      -6.34    16.31   -10.99    42.97     6.58   -33.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.75R    1.42  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.77     0.14   -15.75    22.94     6.41   -63.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.84R   96.91  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10