Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 December 2013, Arsenal 2 0 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          14   34  +19       5.43    87.00     3.99    79.21     6.80    39.21    35.30    61.64    80.09    90.74    98.89     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          14   30  +14       2.85    71.22     1.04    76.01     6.80    35.11    18.63    42.19    65.53    81.31    97.13     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         14   28  +26      -2.32    29.74     7.07    79.12     6.39    58.02    37.33    65.74    83.12    92.46    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        14   27  +13       0.85    56.05     1.65    69.09     6.97    27.28     3.79    11.89    25.41    44.72    83.40     0.00     0.00  
Everton          14   27   +9       3.90    77.69     3.52    66.81     6.91    19.40     1.61     5.95    15.12    30.16    73.96     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        14   24   -2       2.33    67.71    -5.43    61.50     7.00     4.74     0.23     1.26     3.98    10.17    39.36     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle        14   23   -2       5.48    86.03     1.50    52.47     6.94    -8.99     0.00     0.05     0.22     0.86     6.39     0.59R    0.04  
Southampton      14   22   +5       2.94    72.74     6.15    52.61     6.99     1.09     0.01     0.06     0.23     0.95     7.54     0.45R    0.02  
Man_Utd          14   22   +4      -3.82    22.09    -6.70    69.44     6.71    28.06     3.09    11.18    26.16    47.94    85.65     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      14   19   +0       2.46    69.42     4.57    49.17     6.84    -5.38     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.25     2.71     1.78R    0.12  
Swansea          14   18   +1      -0.25    48.99     2.88    49.68     6.82    -1.62     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.28     3.27     1.43R    0.06  
Hull             14   17   -6       3.37    77.43     3.62    39.78     6.55   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05    22.68R    3.26  
West_Brom        14   15   -2      -2.35    32.33     1.63    47.85     7.05    -2.97     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     2.06     3.30R    0.27  
Stoke            14   14   -6      -2.13    33.37    -1.17    41.47     6.66   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    14.76R    1.88  
Cardiff          14   14   -9       0.56    56.20    -0.24    39.44     6.65   -22.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    25.02R    4.70  
Norwich          14   14  -16      -0.08    50.73    -6.01    38.21     6.64   -31.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    32.85R    6.77  
West_Ham         14   13   -3      -4.56    18.88    -0.64    40.95     6.67   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    16.45R    2.41  
Fulham           14   10  -14      -5.60    12.82    -7.77    37.04     6.64   -24.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    37.45R    8.28  
Crystal_Palace   14   10  -14      -1.30    40.66    -0.88    28.53     6.02   -39.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.61R   54.08  
Sunderland       14    8  -17      -5.83    11.34    -8.79    33.84     6.50   -30.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    57.63R   18.10  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 December 2013, Derby 2 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       18   38  +12       6.75    86.86     2.06    83.62     7.87    22.97    28.85    50.11    89.68    60.85P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             18   38  +12       7.24    88.62     3.18    84.11     7.99    23.19    30.74    52.79    90.16    63.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         18   36  +16       6.85    86.90     9.27    80.96     7.94    25.92    18.74    37.71    83.48    49.28P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           18   31  +10       4.34    75.86     7.00    74.24     8.00    17.48     4.36    12.21    55.29    21.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         18   31   +7       1.32    58.01    -0.54    77.26     8.21    19.18     9.58    22.22    68.51    35.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       18   31   +6       3.20    69.81     1.36    71.77     7.90     9.83     2.49     7.05    41.37    14.88P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds_United    18   29   +6       3.73    73.18     5.05    69.37     7.98     8.99     1.20     4.00    31.12     9.55P    0.14R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest   18   28   +6       1.38    59.07     2.98    68.51     8.01     9.29     1.12     3.53    27.66     8.88P    0.18R    0.00  
Ipswich         18   26   +5       1.96    63.06     5.87    64.74     8.01     5.55     0.34     1.22    14.90     3.97P    0.73R    0.05  
Huddersfield    18   26   +3       2.93    69.19     5.31    61.55     7.87    -1.19     0.12     0.43     7.40     1.69P    1.75R    0.14  
Brighton        18   25   +4      -3.05    30.77    -1.12    67.91     7.80    10.87     0.82     2.75    24.94     8.80P    0.20R    0.01  
Watford         18   24   +3      -3.69    27.36    -1.70    67.27     8.05    10.46     0.74     2.55    23.62     8.09P    0.33R    0.04  
Blackburn       18   23   +0      -1.98    37.76    -0.57    62.93     7.86     2.53     0.16     0.68     9.73     2.77P    1.24R    0.10  
Wigan           17   22   +0      -4.71    21.88    -5.05    66.53     8.36     7.35     0.66     2.35    21.06     7.88P    0.61R    0.03  
Doncaster       18   20  -11       1.62    62.10    -1.54    49.03     7.71   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   32.14R    8.00  
Middlesbrough   18   19   +0      -5.41    18.73     0.48    55.74     7.95    -2.75     0.01     0.04     1.93     0.44P    8.50R    1.31  
Birmingham      18   19   -2      -6.27    15.14    -2.86    58.54     8.01    -0.13     0.03     0.15     3.94     1.12P    4.34R    0.58  
Bolton          18   19   -6      -6.14    15.47    -6.80    58.85     7.89    -3.61     0.03     0.19     3.72     1.03P    4.22R    0.50  
Bournemouth     18   19  -13       1.06    58.74    -1.58    47.70     7.80   -29.23     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   39.44R   11.65  
Millwall        18   18  -15      -1.95    37.97    -7.71    49.26     7.72   -26.14     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   31.15R    7.74  
Charlton        18   17   -7      -6.18    14.94    -5.11    53.62     7.72    -9.01     0.00     0.02     0.79     0.20P   12.96R    2.23  
Yeovil          18   15  -10      -1.74    39.92     1.96    43.61     7.62   -25.06     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   58.90R   24.13  
Sheff_Wed       17   14   -8      -5.85    15.01    -2.80    48.40     7.93   -16.08     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   33.62R    8.90  
Barnsley        18   14  -18      -3.93    25.09    -7.14    41.74     7.46   -35.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   69.49R   34.58  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Oldham 1 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.68    95.70    15.52    88.95     7.85    38.50    23.56    58.20    97.54    68.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       5.95    83.09     4.72    95.51     7.67    44.38    62.64    84.87    99.67    89.95P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.08    90.01     6.71    78.57     7.82    17.75     2.30    10.50    75.08    23.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.27    83.78     3.12    79.66     7.84    18.35     2.96    12.90    78.74    28.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.90    60.87    -0.63    82.99     8.07    26.92     7.10    25.05    88.47    44.83P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       6.05    82.27     9.98    65.42     8.11     3.56     0.06     0.47    16.24     3.02P    1.24R    0.04  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.10    30.82    -0.79    75.86     7.93    23.31     1.20     6.40    64.89    23.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.07    73.55    12.70    62.57     7.96     5.56     0.02     0.22     9.70     1.82P    2.48R    0.11  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.30    79.56     3.94    63.77     8.02    -4.11     0.02     0.21    11.14     2.04P    2.28R    0.08  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.87    55.86     1.74    65.70     7.79     4.63     0.04     0.33    15.84     3.40P    0.98R    0.03  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.05    73.09     1.11    66.01     8.08    14.58     0.06     0.53    19.74     5.18P    1.04R    0.03  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.13    16.34    -6.12    64.09     8.15     4.38     0.03     0.26    13.21     3.46P    2.05R    0.09  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.81    39.29     2.27    56.52     7.66    -4.46     0.00     0.00     1.87     0.32P   11.32R    1.01  
Oldham          18   22   -2      -0.09    50.41     1.88    55.74     7.86    -8.92     0.00     0.01     1.74     0.30P   14.34R    1.23  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.56    40.81    -1.23    54.09     7.61   -12.33     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.15P   18.98R    2.02  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.68    46.65     1.59    54.48     7.70   -10.45     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.18P   17.73R    1.99  
Gillingham      19   21   -8      -0.68    46.65    -0.99    50.26     7.71   -20.29     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.03P   36.71R    5.83  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.28    53.08    -4.26    49.72     7.49   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   40.28R    6.51  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.28    30.64    -6.72    54.74     7.80   -14.44     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.21P   17.90R    1.77  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.67     5.79   -11.02    55.49     7.85    -7.65     0.00     0.01     1.38     0.35P   14.86R    1.45  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.10    25.67    -5.42    47.65     7.56   -22.61     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   49.77R   10.35  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.67    40.22   -11.16    40.02     7.03   -46.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.21R   47.28  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.47     3.72    -6.30    53.52     8.18    -4.03     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.24P   21.47R    2.96  
Notts_County    19   11  -15     -12.22     1.96   -10.64    45.30     7.80   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   60.35R   17.21  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 December 2013, Portsmouth 2 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.73    72.04     8.82    76.67     7.74    23.29    19.07    49.04    82.52    58.28P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.57    59.35     2.17    77.04     7.73    20.21    19.57    50.07    83.21    60.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       2.85    67.36     1.97    76.51     7.86    17.45    17.80    46.84    80.85    56.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.09    62.47    -2.14    76.78     8.15    14.98    19.34    47.54    80.50    56.95P    0.01R    0.01  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.23    79.45     0.47    72.20     7.91     6.14     7.24    25.39    61.30    33.58P    0.10R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.88    85.88     2.83    70.46     7.81     3.69     4.41    18.11    52.25    25.07P    0.12R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.63    76.75     5.97    70.44     7.90    10.03     5.07    19.67    53.71    27.23P    0.11R    0.02  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.51    91.02    11.31    63.41     7.91    -0.85     0.82     4.63    21.32     7.42P    1.47R    0.46  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.77    72.48     4.64    66.38     7.77     4.10     1.78     8.76    33.34    14.04P    0.55R    0.14  
Morecambe            19   29   -1       3.78    72.78     0.20    64.53     7.84    -3.04     0.97     5.56    24.74     9.59P    1.02R    0.31  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.66    46.23    -1.89    64.63     7.87     1.50     1.11     5.84    26.07    10.88P    1.04R    0.32  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.70    72.93     4.58    58.79     7.69    -7.32     0.14     1.20     8.36     2.50P    5.17R    1.96  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.62    28.66    -2.84    64.81     7.90     5.38     1.16     6.59    27.67    12.77P    0.90R    0.28  
Wycombe              19   23   -2      -2.32    36.32    -1.01    59.29     7.79    -2.96     0.19     1.45     9.88     3.33P    4.63R    1.71  
Cheltenham           19   23   -5      -2.90    32.82    -4.88    59.30     7.75    -5.88     0.16     1.37     9.51     3.26P    4.75R    1.77  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.61    46.77    -2.26    55.35     7.39   -10.43     0.02     0.26     3.12     0.86P   10.87R    4.44  
Portsmouth           19   22   -5      -7.46    13.07   -10.07    64.32     8.19     2.88     1.01     6.08    26.35    12.34P    1.49R    0.47  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.28    49.28     2.16    52.36     7.88   -13.42     0.01     0.16     1.95     0.49P   22.17R   11.00  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.45    35.21    -1.04    51.67     7.54   -13.46     0.01     0.09     1.19     0.32P   23.55R   11.74  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.23     9.85    -4.80    57.71     8.03    -0.35     0.11     1.02     7.64     2.90P    7.13R    2.93  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.40    29.64     1.04    51.03     7.53   -10.92     0.00     0.07     1.08     0.26P   25.23R   12.52  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.75    22.41    -1.01    53.18     7.67    -7.88     0.02     0.19     2.14     0.62P   17.48R    8.35  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.89    13.27    -6.18    50.75     7.64   -13.48     0.01     0.07     0.97     0.28P   27.50R   14.08  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.73    10.35    -8.07    47.46     7.60   -19.68     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.07P   44.71R   27.43  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.32    96.79    14.46    89.00     7.31    36.92    44.22    95.79    56.66P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       4.10    73.82     5.88    84.78     7.18    33.79    21.02    88.31    39.85P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.68    65.97    -0.31    83.88     7.32    29.01    18.15    85.24    36.99P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.32    70.34     0.95    82.18     7.46    25.44    12.20    78.70    30.15P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.10    89.26     5.63    67.94     7.03     0.43     0.15    10.88     1.57P    0.08R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.75    84.56     4.09    66.59     7.16    -2.64     0.10     8.48     1.15P    0.15R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.19    31.40    -2.54    76.30     7.27    23.15     3.06    51.43    17.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.21    86.71     5.91    65.19     7.71    -3.12     0.10     7.24     1.04P    0.47R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.06    68.41     5.83    66.34     7.15     5.88     0.11     8.25     1.44P    0.17R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.68    72.03     3.78    68.69     7.39     6.59     0.26    14.46     2.68P    0.05R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.88    66.90     7.68    64.72     7.62     4.50     0.06     6.81     1.17P    0.52R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.10    37.45     0.64    67.97     7.28    11.58     0.20    12.88     2.76P    0.11R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       4.00    73.16     7.11    64.29     7.71     2.20     0.05     6.02     1.00P    0.69R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.74    14.85    -7.58    69.58     7.22    13.32     0.29    17.77     4.89P    0.05R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.59    34.31    -1.61    61.05     7.38    -1.14     0.01     2.23     0.41P    1.42R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.48    53.76     0.91    60.62     7.36    -3.48     0.01     1.97     0.32P    1.66R    0.00  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.28    17.22    -5.70    60.31     7.13    -0.31     0.00     1.55     0.31P    1.51R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.65    41.13    -5.53    49.47     6.91   -26.47     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.51R    0.26  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.67    22.93    -2.99    48.11     7.11   -21.33     0.00     0.02     0.00    32.15R    0.24  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.99    44.66    -1.75    49.11     7.06   -22.64     0.00     0.02     0.00    27.72R    0.29  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.42    25.29    -8.26    60.41     7.36    10.15     0.00     1.95     0.59P    1.71R    0.00  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.16    44.23     0.41    46.29     7.12   -23.82     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.98R    0.62  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.78    18.33   -11.14    43.38     6.68   -34.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.19R    1.38  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.90     0.13   -15.87    22.98     6.36   -63.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.86R   97.22  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10