Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 5 December 2013 at 22:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 December 2013, Arsenal 2 0 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          14   34  +19       5.41    86.90     3.96    79.26     6.79    39.30    35.56    61.68    80.22    90.76    98.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          14   30  +14       2.81    70.98     0.94    76.09     6.78    35.18    18.54    42.05    65.53    81.97    97.21     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         14   28  +26      -2.29    30.18     7.08    79.13     6.42    57.95    37.11    65.58    82.77    92.12    99.07     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        14   27  +13       0.85    55.79     1.64    69.12     7.02    27.28     3.68    11.87    25.71    45.24    83.49     0.00     0.00  
Everton          14   27   +9       3.82    77.06     3.38    66.87     6.97    19.56     1.76     6.22    15.21    30.32    73.77     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        14   24   -2       2.25    67.37    -5.50    61.64     6.97     4.91     0.24     1.20     4.01    10.14    40.03     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle        14   23   -2       5.49    86.32     1.54    52.45     6.90    -9.06     0.00     0.03     0.18     0.76     6.26     0.63R    0.04  
Southampton      14   22   +5       2.93    72.63     6.17    52.57     6.99     0.97     0.01     0.06     0.23     0.91     7.53     0.48R    0.02  
Man_Utd          14   22   +4      -3.87    21.97    -6.76    69.43     6.73    28.03     3.09    11.30    25.99    47.17    85.41     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      14   19   +0       2.57    70.28     4.76    49.05     6.82    -5.52     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.19     2.55     1.93R    0.14  
Swansea          14   18   +1      -0.19    49.23     2.98    49.59     6.91    -1.75     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.27     3.10     1.59R    0.07  
Hull             14   17   -6       3.47    78.08     3.73    39.79     6.58   -20.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11    22.89R    3.32  
West_Brom        14   15   -2      -2.39    32.16     1.55    47.87     7.06    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     2.07     3.13R    0.31  
Stoke            14   14   -6      -2.13    33.53    -1.16    41.45     6.68   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19    14.88R    1.97  
Cardiff          14   14   -9       0.53    56.01    -0.29    39.54     6.68   -22.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07    24.43R    4.57  
Norwich          14   14  -16      -0.04    51.07    -5.90    38.07     6.61   -31.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    33.58R    6.97  
West_Ham         14   13   -3      -4.54    18.63    -0.60    40.88     6.58   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    16.38R    2.34  
Fulham           14   10  -14      -5.65    12.53    -7.78    37.12     6.67   -24.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    37.06R    8.13  
Crystal_Palace   14   10  -14      -1.27    41.08    -0.83    28.47     6.01   -39.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.98R   54.35  
Sunderland       14    8  -17      -5.87    10.80    -8.91    33.88     6.48   -30.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    57.02R   17.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 December 2013, Derby 2 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       18   38  +12       6.84    86.90     2.21    83.42     7.94    22.70    28.39    49.27    88.84    59.78P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             18   38  +12       7.23    88.74     3.15    84.07     7.93    23.15    30.77    52.69    90.22    63.72P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         18   36  +16       6.99    87.40     9.43    80.79     7.91    25.69    18.39    37.12    82.95    48.46P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           18   31  +10       4.36    75.64     7.03    74.26     8.07    17.52     4.73    12.79    55.22    22.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         18   31   +7       1.31    57.99    -0.60    77.34     8.18    19.29     9.74    22.34    68.97    35.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       18   31   +6       3.17    69.64     1.29    71.84     7.83     9.95     2.55     7.22    41.88    15.29P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United    18   29   +6       3.73    73.10     5.05    69.16     8.00     8.72     1.13     3.80    30.07     9.05P    0.14R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest   18   28   +6       1.26    58.30     2.78    68.79     7.95     9.70     1.15     3.69    28.41     9.22P    0.17R    0.01  
Ipswich         18   26   +5       1.92    62.94     5.79    64.82     8.04     5.64     0.36     1.38    14.79     4.00P    0.75R    0.06  
Huddersfield    18   26   +3       3.03    69.75     5.43    61.51     7.83    -1.26     0.10     0.47     7.09     1.66P    1.78R    0.16  
Brighton        18   25   +4      -3.07    30.59    -1.12    67.92     7.78    10.89     0.81     2.74    24.71     8.70P    0.18R    0.01  
Watford         18   24   +3      -3.89    26.17    -1.96    67.63     8.07    10.99     0.88     2.91    24.73     8.60P    0.30R    0.02  
Blackburn       18   23   +0      -2.01    37.66    -0.59    62.90     7.97     2.46     0.18     0.68     9.81     2.77P    1.38R    0.14  
Wigan           17   22   +0      -4.64    22.34    -4.95    66.45     8.44     7.30     0.75     2.48    21.04     7.94P    0.64R    0.05  
Doncaster       18   20  -11       1.57    61.80    -1.66    49.03     7.70   -25.18     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   31.73R    7.79  
Middlesbrough   18   19   +0      -5.53    18.37     0.31    55.76     8.02    -2.69     0.01     0.07     2.00     0.48P    8.45R    1.32  
Birmingham      18   19   -2      -6.19    15.23    -2.71    58.43     7.98    -0.28     0.02     0.12     3.66     1.07P    4.41R    0.49  
Bolton          18   19   -6      -6.16    15.75    -6.82    58.97     8.01    -3.48     0.04     0.20     4.11     1.15P    4.11R    0.49  
Bournemouth     18   19  -13       1.01    58.41    -1.63    47.74     7.85   -29.17     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.03P   39.00R   11.66  
Millwall        18   18  -15      -2.02    37.63    -7.84    49.31     7.69   -26.01     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   30.62R    7.69  
Charlton        18   17   -7      -6.13    14.96    -5.00    53.56     7.77    -9.20     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.17P   13.43R    2.39  
Yeovil          18   15  -10      -1.61    40.60     2.18    43.53     7.58   -25.21     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    58.89R   24.21  
Sheff_Wed       17   14   -8      -5.82    15.44    -2.69    48.23     8.02   -16.33     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   34.65R    9.46  
Barnsley        18   14  -18      -3.91    25.20    -7.11    41.79     7.45   -35.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   69.31R   34.02  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Oldham 1 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.67    95.62    15.53    88.89     7.88    38.46    23.68    58.00    97.50    68.05P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       5.98    83.32     4.74    95.50     7.62    44.38    62.42    84.93    99.68    90.13P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.11    90.16     6.79    78.48     7.84    17.64     2.30    10.28    74.75    23.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.25    83.74     3.07    79.71     7.77    18.39     2.90    12.96    79.17    28.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.95    61.46    -0.56    82.98     8.05    26.91     7.24    25.19    88.52    44.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.96    81.85     9.85    65.46     8.09     3.60     0.04     0.45    16.38     2.93P    1.27R    0.03  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.15    30.39    -0.91    75.96     7.87    23.39     1.22     6.50    65.26    24.43P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.04    73.48    12.66    62.70     7.96     5.74     0.03     0.25    10.07     1.83P    2.40R    0.09  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.19    79.17     3.81    63.92     8.11    -3.84     0.04     0.27    11.72     2.13P    2.28R    0.08  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.88    55.99     1.79    65.63     7.79     4.52     0.03     0.28    15.36     3.41P    0.98R    0.04  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.11    73.27     1.17    65.99     8.08    14.51     0.08     0.60    19.24     5.04P    1.04R    0.03  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.10    16.13    -6.15    64.08     8.14     4.38     0.03     0.25    12.84     3.30P    2.01R    0.10  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.76    39.50     2.31    56.49     7.64    -4.52     0.00     0.00     1.84     0.34P   11.21R    0.91  
Oldham          18   22   -2       0.05    51.31     2.02    55.57     7.85    -9.09     0.00     0.01     1.58     0.24P   14.72R    1.25  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.71    40.19    -1.40    54.22     7.64   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.16P   18.59R    1.95  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.61    47.17     1.71    54.41     7.71   -10.56     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.14P   18.35R    2.00  
Gillingham      19   21   -8      -0.86    45.63    -1.24    50.47     7.70   -19.87     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P   35.92R    5.41  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.34    53.38    -4.11    49.67     7.50   -26.86     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   40.66R    6.63  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.35    30.13    -6.84    54.89     7.73   -14.24     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.16P   17.47R    1.69  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.74     5.72   -11.11    55.59     7.80    -7.53     0.00     0.01     1.43     0.34P   14.17R    1.40  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.17    25.18    -5.55    47.74     7.58   -22.49     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   49.65R   10.08  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.54    41.25   -10.91    39.90     7.09   -46.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.44R   47.63  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.30     3.92    -6.06    53.29     8.20    -4.38     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.24P   22.30R    3.15  
Notts_County    19   11  -15     -12.20     1.97   -10.58    45.20     7.77   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   60.51R   17.53  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 December 2013, Portsmouth 2 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.90    73.00     9.08    76.43     7.67    22.96    18.23    47.84    81.99    57.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.40    58.83     1.98    77.24     7.70    20.49    20.77    51.45    84.16    61.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       3.06    68.77     2.28    76.21     7.80    17.10    16.93    45.36    80.18    55.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.19    63.26    -2.03    76.70     8.07    14.92    19.23    47.64    80.01    56.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.11    78.52     0.30    72.30     7.94     6.26     7.46    26.00    61.62    34.02P    0.05R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.95    86.03     2.91    70.40     7.82     3.55     4.52    18.21    51.90    25.17P    0.13R    0.04  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.65    76.87     5.97    70.41     7.87     9.98     5.14    19.70    53.85    27.33P    0.11R    0.02  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.50    90.81    11.27    63.39     7.89    -0.86     0.91     4.65    21.32     7.43P    1.46R    0.46  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.81    72.55     4.71    66.31     7.77     3.98     1.66     8.72    33.06    13.94P    0.54R    0.15  
Morecambe            19   29   -1       3.77    72.77     0.15    64.47     7.72    -3.10     0.97     5.27    24.17     9.21P    0.95R    0.30  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.66    46.65    -1.86    64.63     7.84     1.50     1.05     5.91    26.06    10.79P    1.04R    0.35  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.72    72.68     4.65    58.85     7.62    -7.25     0.15     1.11     8.14     2.42P    5.22R    1.94  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.60    28.99    -2.82    64.80     7.92     5.35     1.20     6.58    27.93    12.76P    0.88R    0.28  
Wycombe              19   23   -2      -2.40    35.87    -1.14    59.37     7.80    -2.87     0.18     1.51    10.10     3.55P    4.64R    1.72  
Cheltenham           19   23   -5      -2.89    32.68    -4.86    59.32     7.75    -5.87     0.15     1.37     9.42     3.30P    4.76R    1.74  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.61    46.75    -2.29    55.39     7.41   -10.40     0.02     0.33     3.36     0.95P   10.69R    4.32  
Portsmouth           19   22   -5      -7.69    12.66   -10.43    64.65     8.20     3.38     1.27     6.72    27.48    13.35P    1.46R    0.52  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.28    49.56     2.18    52.35     7.78   -13.48     0.01     0.16     1.89     0.48P   21.94R   10.77  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.47    35.24    -1.09    51.84     7.54   -13.23     0.01     0.11     1.25     0.36P   23.06R   11.53  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.15    10.17    -4.67    57.63     8.01    -0.49     0.12     1.01     7.64     2.89P    7.25R    3.07  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.50    28.95     0.90    51.21     7.55   -10.70     0.00     0.08     1.14     0.31P   24.66R   12.34  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.82    22.30    -1.09    53.22     7.64    -7.83     0.02     0.18     2.16     0.64P   17.43R    8.00  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.79    13.56    -6.02    50.52     7.60   -13.75     0.01     0.07     0.87     0.23P   28.74R   14.70  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.74    10.13    -8.10    47.42     7.57   -19.66     0.00     0.03     0.30     0.09P   44.96R   27.71  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.27    96.80    14.38    89.06     7.35    37.01    44.43    95.71    57.26P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       4.18    74.06     5.96    84.74     7.17    33.69    20.54    88.24    39.31P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.63    65.80    -0.36    83.98     7.30    29.15    18.08    85.44    36.82P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.31    70.01     0.97    82.16     7.51    25.41    12.52    78.59    30.14P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.04    89.29     5.55    68.07     7.07     0.60     0.19    11.18     1.62P    0.07R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.84    85.03     4.20    66.41     7.10    -2.96     0.09     7.53     0.99P    0.17R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.12    31.62    -2.50    76.30     7.28    23.11     2.94    51.94    16.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.37    86.87     6.11    65.08     7.68    -3.26     0.10     7.03     1.07P    0.51R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.12    68.46     5.98    66.18     7.14     5.66     0.13     7.82     1.33P    0.18R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.68    71.79     3.79    68.61     7.41     6.47     0.24    14.48     2.60P    0.06R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.69    65.59     7.37    64.97     7.69     4.89     0.10     7.25     1.35P    0.53R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.19    36.71     0.50    68.09     7.33    11.78     0.22    13.23     2.98P    0.12R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.95    72.88     7.07    64.33     7.69     2.26     0.07     6.14     1.03P    0.65R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.80    14.29    -7.68    69.66     7.19    13.44     0.34    17.98     5.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.50    34.94    -1.49    60.90     7.33    -1.32     0.01     2.12     0.38P    1.45R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.53    54.03     0.94    60.59     7.36    -3.56     0.01     1.89     0.30P    1.57R    0.01  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.22    17.39    -5.62    60.27     7.11    -0.46     0.01     1.48     0.35P    1.53R    0.01  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.67    40.71    -5.52    49.39     6.91   -26.58     0.00     0.01     0.00    27.12R    0.21  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.69    22.92    -3.02    48.17     7.14   -21.27     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.96R    0.26  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.98    44.71    -1.72    49.05     7.09   -22.69     0.00     0.01     0.00P   28.11R    0.30  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.39    25.31    -8.23    60.44     7.40    10.18     0.00     1.91     0.62P    1.71R    0.01  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.30    43.56     0.13    46.45     7.13   -23.48     0.00     0.01     0.00    42.17R    0.56  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.80    18.37   -11.18    43.42     6.66   -34.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.16R    1.37  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.79     0.14   -15.62    22.90     6.34   -63.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   97.28  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10