Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 4 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 December 2013, Arsenal 2 0 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          14   34  +19       5.40    86.78     3.98    79.21     6.82    39.22    37.67    63.04    80.55    90.77    98.87     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          14   30  +14       2.75    70.56     0.87    76.21     6.82    35.44    21.00    45.01    67.12    82.43    97.35     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        14   27  +13       0.84    55.93     1.63    69.11     6.98    27.26     4.07    12.54    26.42    45.60    83.33     0.00     0.00  
Everton          14   27   +9       3.88    77.86     3.47    66.85     6.89    19.52     1.79     6.53    15.95    30.98    73.90     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         13   25  +25      -3.30    22.21     7.20    77.88     6.65    57.20    31.73    59.27    77.92    89.25    98.59     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        14   24   -2       2.39    68.22    -5.35    61.51     7.01     4.70     0.25     1.41     4.22    10.35    39.39     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle        14   23   -2       5.47    86.22     1.46    52.55     6.89    -8.87     0.01     0.04     0.22     0.79     6.32     0.55R    0.03  
Southampton      14   22   +5       2.98    73.32     6.21    52.51     7.03     0.95     0.00     0.07     0.30     0.96     7.35     0.55R    0.03  
Man_Utd          14   22   +4      -3.80    22.26    -6.68    69.46     6.67    28.11     3.48    12.05    27.13    48.11    85.83     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      14   19   +0       2.46    69.61     4.59    49.15     6.84    -5.32     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.24     2.58     1.69R    0.12  
Swansea          14   18   +1      -0.21    48.94     2.93    49.54     6.85    -1.84     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.23     3.06     1.48R    0.07  
Hull             14   17   -6       3.42    77.67     3.67    39.75     6.59   -20.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    23.42R    3.51  
West_Brom        13   15   -1      -1.55    37.79     1.59    48.85     7.16    -2.48     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.26     2.84     2.55R    0.18  
Stoke            14   14   -6      -2.08    33.74    -1.14    41.36     6.63   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22    15.11R    1.95  
Cardiff          14   14   -9       0.54    55.99    -0.30    39.53     6.67   -22.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    24.58R    4.50  
Norwich          14   14  -16      -0.08    50.34    -6.01    38.14     6.59   -31.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    32.84R    6.72  
West_Ham         14   13   -3      -4.57    18.35    -0.68    40.98     6.61   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14    16.40R    2.25  
Fulham           14   10  -14      -5.63    12.75    -7.74    37.12     6.65   -24.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    37.21R    8.00  
Crystal_Palace   14   10  -14      -1.23    41.15    -0.77    28.44     6.03   -39.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.94R   54.48  
Sunderland       14    8  -17      -5.91    10.92    -8.94    33.84     6.51   -30.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    57.66R   18.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 December 2013, Derby 2 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       18   38  +12       6.68    86.65     1.98    83.63     7.92    22.98    29.03    50.09    89.50    60.55P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             18   38  +12       7.24    88.27     3.15    84.07     8.03    23.16    30.67    52.23    90.13    62.89P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         18   36  +16       6.80    86.70     9.20    80.93     7.90    25.89    18.51    37.66    83.38    49.34P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           18   31  +10       4.32    75.91     6.99    74.24     8.01    17.43     4.52    12.12    55.35    21.83P    0.02R    0.00  
Reading         18   31   +7       1.23    57.31    -0.67    77.38     8.22    19.38     9.56    22.53    69.42    35.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       18   31   +6       3.22    69.57     1.41    71.65     7.91     9.66     2.41     7.02    40.55    14.71P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds_United    18   29   +6       3.77    73.50     5.06    69.26     7.98     8.89     1.16     3.95    30.73     9.42P    0.12R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest   18   28   +6       1.35    59.01     2.88    68.72     7.97     9.56     1.12     3.59    28.31     9.19P    0.17R    0.01  
Ipswich         18   26   +5       2.03    63.87     5.99    64.70     8.01     5.43     0.31     1.22    14.58     3.83P    0.76R    0.06  
Huddersfield    18   26   +3       2.89    68.94     5.24    61.61     7.88    -1.06     0.12     0.49     7.37     1.76P    1.74R    0.15  
Brighton        18   25   +4      -3.20    29.80    -1.28    68.14     7.82    11.21     0.86     2.94    25.73     9.36P    0.20R    0.02  
Watford         18   24   +3      -3.69    27.54    -1.64    67.27     8.14    10.41     0.80     2.70    23.72     8.15P    0.35R    0.03  
Blackburn       18   23   +0      -1.89    38.38    -0.43    62.82     7.95     2.39     0.15     0.66     9.56     2.61P    1.42R    0.12  
Wigan           17   22   +0      -4.58    22.62    -4.89    66.35     8.36     7.07     0.70     2.40    20.43     7.63P    0.64R    0.04  
Doncaster       18   20  -11       1.59    62.15    -1.67    49.06     7.72   -25.10     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   31.87R    7.85  
Middlesbrough   18   19   +0      -5.52    18.01     0.32    55.75     7.99    -2.76     0.01     0.06     1.89     0.50P    8.55R    1.37  
Birmingham      18   19   -2      -6.25    15.33    -2.81    58.63     8.00     0.05     0.03     0.13     3.98     1.07P    4.42R    0.56  
Bolton          18   19   -6      -6.12    15.66    -6.76    59.00     7.97    -3.49     0.04     0.19     3.96     1.05P    4.03R    0.55  
Bournemouth     18   19  -13       1.20    59.51    -1.37    47.51     7.79   -29.53     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   40.33R   12.05  
Millwall        18   18  -15      -2.07    37.22    -7.90    49.33     7.66   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   30.42R    7.34  
Charlton        18   17   -7      -6.08    15.08    -4.95    53.45     7.72    -9.30     0.00     0.02     0.73     0.18P   13.39R    2.38  
Yeovil          18   15  -10      -1.61    40.70     2.18    43.45     7.61   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   59.77R   25.29  
Sheff_Wed       17   14   -8      -5.80    15.20    -2.70    48.36     7.93   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   33.39R    9.01  
Barnsley        18   14  -18      -4.06    24.58    -7.33    41.97     7.48   -34.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   68.35R   33.17  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Oldham 1 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.73    95.85    15.61    88.85     7.79    38.40    23.51    57.41    97.67    67.75P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       5.99    83.28     4.77    95.47     7.64    44.29    62.49    84.91    99.69    90.23P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.05    89.87     6.71    78.59     7.77    17.77     2.24    10.40    75.28    23.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.24    83.67     3.09    79.72     7.80    18.41     2.90    12.96    79.02    28.65P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.81    60.62    -0.74    83.12     8.03    27.14     7.43    25.86    88.87    45.46P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.96    81.95     9.82    65.53     8.06     3.71     0.09     0.44    16.47     2.99P    1.26R    0.04  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.13    30.42    -0.83    75.92     7.83    23.34     1.19     6.55    65.16    23.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.16    74.08    12.79    62.51     7.94     5.46     0.02     0.16     9.57     1.69P    2.56R    0.11  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.21    79.17     3.84    63.87     8.04    -3.93     0.03     0.22    11.56     2.01P    2.20R    0.10  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.93    56.20     1.90    65.61     7.79     4.43     0.03     0.31    15.47     3.25P    1.00R    0.03  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.14    73.42     1.23    65.92     8.08    14.45     0.05     0.50    19.09     4.99P    1.15R    0.05  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.07    16.47    -6.10    64.10     8.07     4.36     0.02     0.23    12.78     3.37P    2.06R    0.08  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.78    39.47     2.27    56.45     7.61    -4.51     0.00     0.00     1.78     0.33P   11.30R    0.90  
Oldham          18   22   -2       0.21    52.19     2.24    55.44     7.80    -9.37     0.00     0.01     1.43     0.23P   15.11R    1.34  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.65    40.23    -1.36    54.26     7.63   -12.08     0.00     0.01     0.84     0.14P   18.59R    1.89  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.59    47.29     1.70    54.44     7.66   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.15P   18.16R    1.96  
Gillingham      19   21   -8      -0.63    46.91    -0.96    50.21     7.76   -20.36     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P   36.97R    6.01  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.26    52.87    -4.31    49.83     7.55   -26.53     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P   39.75R    6.23  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.40    29.93    -6.91    54.87     7.78   -14.28     0.00     0.01     1.14     0.20P   17.51R    1.75  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.82     5.62   -11.22    55.60     7.79    -7.51     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.40P   14.25R    1.35  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.16    24.93    -5.45    47.64     7.55   -22.62     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   50.48R   10.30  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.64    40.45   -11.09    40.02     7.10   -46.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.83R   47.18  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.45     3.69    -6.30    53.48     8.21    -4.03     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.26P   21.73R    3.13  
Notts_County    19   11  -15     -12.26     1.76   -10.68    45.27     7.77   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   60.07R   17.57  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 December 2013, Portsmouth 2 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.90    72.90     9.04    76.49     7.74    23.06    18.72    48.10    82.01    57.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.57    59.76     2.20    77.03     7.70    20.19    19.97    50.10    83.32    60.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       3.04    68.42     2.27    76.20     7.83    17.03    17.10    45.51    79.84    55.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.07    62.28    -2.21    76.88     8.03    15.19    19.60    48.24    81.05    57.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.17    78.91     0.42    72.25     8.00     6.17     7.59    25.98    61.36    33.86P    0.09R    0.03  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.81    85.72     2.67    70.63     7.86     3.92     4.72    19.04    53.26    26.07P    0.10R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.75    77.16     6.16    70.25     7.84     9.74     4.75    19.00    53.20    26.61P    0.13R    0.03  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.58    91.08    11.38    63.29     7.89    -0.99     0.82     4.67    20.84     7.26P    1.50R    0.50  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.78    72.31     4.68    66.30     7.79     3.99     1.69     8.83    32.98    13.95P    0.50R    0.13  
Morecambe            19   29   -1       3.71    72.49     0.08    64.54     7.82    -3.02     0.91     5.63    24.67     9.54P    0.98R    0.34  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.78    45.51    -2.04    64.75     7.81     1.71     1.04     5.92    26.17    10.92P    0.98R    0.31  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.67    72.69     4.54    58.94     7.63    -7.05     0.15     1.20     8.44     2.40P    4.93R    1.84  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.57    29.18    -2.78    64.81     7.88     5.38     1.22     6.50    27.60    12.33P    0.86R    0.30  
Wycombe              19   23   -2      -2.33    36.27    -1.04    59.31     7.80    -2.96     0.17     1.49     9.96     3.49P    4.60R    1.78  
Cheltenham           19   23   -5      -2.96    32.46    -4.93    59.41     7.78    -5.76     0.20     1.37     9.85     3.45P    4.54R    1.74  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.65    46.63    -2.32    55.38     7.35   -10.42     0.04     0.31     3.10     0.92P   10.55R    4.09  
Portsmouth           19   22   -5      -7.59    12.78   -10.28    64.52     8.18     3.18     1.16     6.46    27.20    13.08P    1.46R    0.48  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.31    49.16     2.09    52.48     7.80   -13.30     0.02     0.19     1.94     0.56P   21.48R   10.58  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.45    35.07    -1.08    51.73     7.52   -13.36     0.00     0.08     1.19     0.26P   23.46R   11.61  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.09    10.34    -4.58    57.49     8.03    -0.66     0.11     1.04     7.47     2.87P    7.79R    3.18  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.41    29.57     1.06    51.01     7.58   -10.96     0.00     0.07     1.17     0.29P   25.76R   12.75  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.81    22.16    -1.09    53.23     7.64    -7.85     0.01     0.19     2.11     0.61P   17.24R    8.13  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.81    13.55    -6.08    50.61     7.68   -13.63     0.00     0.07     0.94     0.25P   28.31R   14.60  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.74    10.12    -8.14    47.51     7.65   -19.57     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.07P   44.71R   27.54  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.22    96.78    14.32    89.05     7.32    37.04    44.51    95.90    57.00P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       4.13    73.88     5.89    84.79     7.14    33.75    20.75    88.56    39.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.65    66.08    -0.33    83.93     7.34    29.12    18.09    85.25    37.38P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.32    70.10     0.98    82.13     7.40    25.39    12.08    78.79    29.77P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.16    89.59     5.72    67.92     7.04     0.38     0.17    10.63     1.45P    0.07R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.70    84.59     3.94    66.63     7.06    -2.57     0.09     8.10     1.14P    0.14R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.29    30.77    -2.75    76.45     7.22    23.39     3.12    52.36    17.51P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.15    86.06     5.82    65.28     7.70    -2.92     0.12     7.30     1.09P    0.48R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.14    68.81     5.98    66.21     7.11     5.66     0.10     7.90     1.27P    0.14R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.71    72.18     3.83    68.59     7.38     6.45     0.26    14.03     2.50P    0.07R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.88    66.92     7.70    64.73     7.65     4.50     0.09     6.96     1.16P    0.43R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.02    37.76     0.80    67.86     7.33    11.41     0.20    12.74     2.81P    0.11R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.97    73.36     7.08    64.36     7.67     2.34     0.08     6.00     0.94P    0.68R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.75    14.69    -7.65    69.63     7.18    13.40     0.33    17.83     4.99P    0.05R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.57    34.51    -1.61    60.97     7.38    -1.23     0.01     2.20     0.40P    1.40R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.42    53.37     0.75    60.72     7.37    -3.34     0.01     1.96     0.29P    1.55R    0.00  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.19    17.35    -5.61    60.25     7.16    -0.45     0.01     1.58     0.36P    1.55R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.60    41.05    -5.44    49.40     6.92   -26.57     0.00     0.02     0.00    26.91R    0.21  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.60    23.58    -2.87    48.08     7.21   -21.47     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.72R    0.28  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.99    44.84    -1.76    49.13     7.10   -22.59     0.00     0.02     0.01P   27.76R    0.32  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.46    25.32    -8.28    60.47     7.27    10.18     0.00     1.86     0.53P    1.67R    0.00  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.18    44.25     0.37    46.25     7.09   -23.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.11R    0.62  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.83    18.00   -11.25    43.52     6.66   -34.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.29R    1.27  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.79     0.11   -15.62    22.90     6.35   -63.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.29  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10