Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 3 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 December 2013, Crystal_Palace 1 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          13   31  +17       4.98    85.33     3.99    78.67     6.93    39.06    36.62    62.10    79.57    90.79    98.88     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          13   27  +13       1.99    65.93     1.41    74.81     6.95    34.35    16.95    38.70    61.17    79.33    96.40     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         13   25  +25      -3.31    22.43     7.22    77.83     6.64    56.98    33.75    60.61    78.95    90.44    98.83     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        13   24   +9       0.79    55.99     0.52    67.72     7.20    23.60     3.12    10.24    22.16    39.73    80.24     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          13   24   +8       2.02    65.76     2.12    63.90     7.09    16.47     0.90     3.56     9.38    20.37    61.78     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        13   23   +1       6.01    89.28     3.12    54.18     7.09    -5.34     0.03     0.13     0.51     1.79    12.14     0.35R    0.01  
Southampton      13   22   +6       4.49    83.44     7.28    54.93     7.23     3.73     0.06     0.24     0.89     2.62    15.95     0.31R    0.01  
Man_Utd          13   22   +5      -2.24    31.70    -5.51    71.96     6.90    31.12     8.41    23.56    44.27    66.53    92.41     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        13   21   -3       0.96    58.00    -5.99    59.62     7.23     3.33     0.15     0.84     2.98     7.81    34.42     0.05R    0.00  
Hull             13   17   -4       3.65    79.46     3.56    40.25     6.66   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    22.96R    3.39  
Aston_Villa      13   16   -1       0.72    56.98     3.29    46.53     7.02    -7.67     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.11     1.73     5.11R    0.52  
West_Brom        13   15   -1      -1.49    38.26     1.70    48.75     7.18    -2.62     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.28     3.55     2.95R    0.23  
Swansea          13   15   -2      -0.94    43.21     1.28    47.54     7.05    -5.46     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.16     2.55     3.80R    0.31  
Norwich          13   14  -12       0.00    51.31    -4.66    39.33     6.77   -27.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13    29.31R    5.53  
West_Ham         14   13   -3      -4.60    18.45    -0.72    40.90     6.63   -11.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    18.23R    2.74  
Stoke            13   13   -6      -1.48    38.30    -0.80    42.46     6.82   -12.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.40    13.66R    1.84  
Cardiff          13   13   -9       0.62    57.10    -0.53    39.23     6.87   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16    29.07R    5.96  
Fulham           13   10  -13      -4.52    17.25    -7.29    38.67     6.92   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    31.69R    6.28  
Crystal_Palace   14   10  -14      -1.32    40.54    -0.96    28.50     6.02   -39.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.89R   56.72  
Sunderland       13    8  -16      -5.08    13.82    -9.03    34.64     6.62   -29.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.61R   16.46  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 December 2013, Birmingham 1 1 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       18   38  +12       6.73    86.63     2.06    83.67     7.94    23.01    29.16    50.52    89.93    61.18P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             18   38  +12       7.27    88.77     3.20    84.00     7.99    23.04    30.35    52.11    90.22    63.01P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         18   36  +16       6.75    86.58     9.14    80.87     7.92    25.77    18.50    37.40    83.34    48.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading         18   31   +7       1.15    56.66    -0.79    77.51     8.24    19.55    10.14    23.19    70.13    36.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       18   31   +6       3.23    69.89     1.36    71.87     7.88     9.96     2.43     7.30    42.54    15.33P    0.03R    0.00  
Derby           17   28   +9       3.27    70.81     6.86    72.91     8.27    16.85     3.63    10.11    49.27    18.75P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   18   28   +6       1.46    59.56     3.12    68.61     7.98     9.42     1.12     3.67    28.22     9.19P    0.17R    0.00  
Ipswich         18   26   +5       1.97    63.24     5.90    64.80     7.98     5.58     0.35     1.40    15.00     4.04P    0.67R    0.04  
Leeds_United    17   26   +4       2.68    67.65     3.93    66.81     8.26     5.60     0.76     2.50    21.72     6.39P    0.47R    0.04  
Huddersfield    18   26   +3       3.00    69.36     5.44    61.49     7.81    -1.26     0.09     0.42     7.34     1.64P    1.72R    0.16  
Brighton        18   25   +4      -3.02    31.04    -1.05    67.85     7.81    10.80     0.72     2.56    25.20     8.62P    0.19R    0.01  
Watford         18   24   +3      -3.75    27.17    -1.77    67.37     8.10    10.60     0.81     2.75    24.11     8.32P    0.36R    0.03  
Blackburn       18   23   +0      -1.98    37.73    -0.50    62.91     7.88     2.50     0.17     0.66     9.88     2.81P    1.31R    0.11  
Wigan           16   22   +2      -3.88    25.30    -3.87    68.80     8.66    10.72     1.68     4.97    30.76    12.18P    0.34R    0.02  
Doncaster       18   20  -11       1.54    61.55    -1.71    49.17     7.69   -24.86     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P   31.45R    7.67  
Middlesbrough   17   19   +1      -4.60    22.12     0.58    56.92     8.24    -2.08     0.03     0.15     3.23     0.86P    7.10R    1.02  
Birmingham      18   19   -2      -6.24    15.15    -2.78    58.47     8.00    -0.18     0.03     0.12     3.92     1.01P    4.57R    0.60  
Bolton          18   19   -6      -6.10    15.59    -6.73    58.81     7.90    -3.74     0.03     0.14     3.75     1.01P    4.30R    0.56  
Bournemouth     18   19  -13       1.04    58.39    -1.68    47.72     7.84   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   39.37R   11.89  
Millwall        18   18  -15      -2.13    36.84    -8.01    49.24     7.69   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   31.17R    7.42  
Charlton        18   17   -7      -6.10    15.29    -4.98    53.49     7.72    -9.25     0.01     0.02     0.70     0.17P   13.45R    2.36  
Yeovil          18   15  -10      -1.59    40.70     2.24    43.45     7.56   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.73R   24.68  
Sheff_Wed       17   14   -8      -5.86    15.15    -2.84    48.25     7.97   -16.26     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   34.30R    9.55  
Barnsley        18   14  -18      -3.93    25.22    -7.13    41.79     7.45   -35.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    69.21R   33.85  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Oldham 1 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.68    95.50    15.52    88.90     7.75    38.48    23.53    57.83    97.75    67.82P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       6.03    83.24     4.78    95.45     7.70    44.27    62.14    84.38    99.60    89.89P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.14    90.13     6.82    78.54     7.76    17.71     2.14    10.20    75.16    23.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.32    83.89     3.14    79.61     7.85    18.32     2.93    12.92    78.76    28.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.78    60.06    -0.83    83.19     8.04    27.26     7.70    26.08    89.17    45.48P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.93    81.91     9.86    65.47     8.02     3.65     0.05     0.44    16.09     2.89P    1.14R    0.05  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.10    30.92    -0.78    75.90     7.94    23.32     1.35     6.67    64.88    24.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.05    73.56    12.70    62.56     7.95     5.54     0.01     0.17     9.78     1.80P    2.57R    0.12  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.18    78.95     3.77    63.91     8.01    -3.85     0.03     0.19    11.50     1.92P    2.11R    0.10  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.93    56.27     1.85    65.65     7.79     4.47     0.03     0.28    15.93     3.46P    1.03R    0.04  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.04    73.01     1.12    65.98     8.02    14.53     0.06     0.52    19.17     5.12P    1.02R    0.06  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.12    16.46    -6.16    64.07     8.12     4.39     0.03     0.29    12.97     3.41P    2.03R    0.07  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.81    39.37     2.25    56.51     7.61    -4.51     0.00     0.00     1.77     0.27P   11.15R    0.89  
Oldham          18   22   -2       0.14    51.93     2.13    55.45     7.82    -9.33     0.00     0.01     1.55     0.24P   15.10R    1.37  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.52    41.31    -1.22    54.14     7.67   -12.24     0.00     0.01     0.95     0.14P   19.12R    1.99  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.60    47.30     1.72    54.37     7.66   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.15P   18.45R    1.97  
Gillingham      19   21   -8      -0.68    46.89    -1.02    50.25     7.68   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   36.94R    5.72  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.24    52.83    -4.27    49.78     7.48   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   40.23R    6.25  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.33    30.16    -6.82    54.86     7.76   -14.28     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.18P   17.62R    1.77  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.69     5.84   -11.06    55.58     7.78    -7.54     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.34P   14.43R    1.38  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.31    24.50    -5.66    47.86     7.55   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   48.93R    9.98  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.56    41.20   -10.94    39.90     7.13   -46.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.22R   47.94  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.42     3.81    -6.23    53.45     8.15    -4.17     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.23P   21.47R    3.04  
Notts_County    19   11  -15     -12.23     1.91   -10.66    45.28     7.83   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   60.42R   17.28  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Newport_County 3 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.84    72.53     9.01    76.43     7.74    23.00    18.55    47.61    81.62    56.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.63    59.91     2.33    76.91     7.72    19.99    19.30    49.68    82.65    59.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       3.16    69.24     2.45    75.93     7.79    16.66    16.07    43.78    78.77    53.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.04    62.30    -2.23    77.02     8.08    15.27    20.57    49.15    80.95    58.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.07    78.43     0.26    72.34     7.91     6.31     7.73    25.85    61.76    34.00P    0.06R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.77    85.65     2.67    70.55     7.83     3.80     4.78    18.80    52.57    25.64P    0.12R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.65    76.67     6.00    70.44     7.85    10.04     5.03    19.66    53.53    27.21P    0.10R    0.03  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.45    90.79    11.27    63.50     7.96    -0.72     0.85     4.88    21.74     7.69P    1.48R    0.47  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.75    72.53     4.63    66.35     7.75     4.11     1.70     8.84    32.99    14.14P    0.51R    0.13  
Morecambe            19   29   -1       3.69    72.22     0.06    64.49     7.74    -3.04     0.90     5.33    23.95     9.15P    1.02R    0.32  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.64    46.24    -1.88    64.71     7.86     1.65     1.10     5.96    26.06    10.89P    1.12R    0.34  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.63    72.51     4.50    59.02     7.67    -6.94     0.17     1.31     8.66     2.66P    4.92R    1.77  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.75    28.10    -3.02    64.95     7.88     5.61     1.18     6.73    28.04    13.01P    0.82R    0.26  
Cheltenham           19   23   -5      -2.85    32.97    -4.80    59.22     7.77    -6.00     0.18     1.38     9.14     3.29P    4.90R    1.93  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.61    47.05    -2.27    55.37     7.37   -10.39     0.03     0.27     3.06     0.78P   10.94R    4.44  
Wycombe              18   22   -2      -2.16    36.73    -1.43    58.98     7.95    -3.99     0.17     1.40     9.56     3.24P    5.54R    2.12  
Portsmouth           18   21   -5      -6.81    14.72    -9.65    65.23     8.37     3.74     1.50     7.78    30.24    14.69P    1.34R    0.47  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.32    49.18     2.06    52.45     7.84   -13.30     0.03     0.19     1.87     0.51P   21.71R   10.58  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.37    35.84    -0.99    51.67     7.53   -13.42     0.00     0.09     1.18     0.28P   23.92R   11.88  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.00    10.73    -4.48    57.38     8.02    -0.83     0.13     0.97     7.03     2.70P    7.81R    3.30  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.46    29.27     0.99    51.13     7.56   -10.78     0.01     0.07     1.15     0.31P   25.04R   12.52  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.92    21.47    -1.23    53.37     7.65    -7.66     0.02     0.17     2.23     0.68P   16.67R    7.93  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.76    13.43    -6.02    50.58     7.62   -13.68     0.00     0.06     0.93     0.25P   28.08R   14.56  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.80     9.87    -8.23    47.62     7.64   -19.42     0.00     0.02     0.34     0.08P   43.90R   26.92  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.28    96.74    14.43    89.01     7.30    36.94    44.11    95.78    56.53P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       4.19    74.43     6.04    84.67     7.16    33.58    20.61    87.92    39.03P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.58    65.50    -0.46    84.03     7.28    29.26    18.38    85.71    37.17P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.23    69.75     0.83    82.24     7.42    25.57    12.44    78.81    30.55P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.11    89.22     5.60    68.04     7.03     0.57     0.17    11.04     1.67P    0.06R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.83    84.67     4.21    66.47     7.19    -2.85     0.12     8.13     1.26P    0.16R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.16    31.44    -2.52    76.34     7.25    23.19     3.04    51.80    17.19P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.10    86.15     5.71    65.29     7.73    -2.89     0.13     7.57     1.15P    0.41R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.15    68.93     6.01    66.22     7.11     5.65     0.11     7.88     1.39P    0.15R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.72    72.27     3.88    68.60     7.32     6.50     0.23    13.96     2.61P    0.06R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.91    67.18     7.71    64.66     7.58     4.41     0.10     6.54     1.13P    0.46R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.15    37.16     0.59    68.05     7.38    11.71     0.21    13.62     2.93P    0.13R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.93    72.89     7.03    64.41     7.61     2.39     0.07     5.92     0.98P    0.61R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.74    14.87    -7.61    69.55     7.21    13.32     0.28    17.61     4.86P    0.06R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.61    34.34    -1.63    61.01     7.44    -1.20     0.01     2.25     0.36P    1.51R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.52    54.07     0.93    60.63     7.41    -3.50     0.01     1.96     0.34P    1.69R    0.00  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.09    17.93    -5.43    60.11     7.10    -0.72     0.01     1.44     0.28P    1.46R    0.01  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.56    41.44    -5.38    49.31     6.94   -26.73     0.00     0.01     0.00P   27.42R    0.24  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.66    23.31    -2.97    48.12     7.14   -21.35     0.00     0.02     0.01P   32.36R    0.23  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -1.10    43.82    -1.96    49.24     7.08   -22.43     0.00     0.02     0.00P   27.03R    0.26  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.44    25.52    -8.30    60.46     7.39    10.23     0.00     2.02     0.57P    1.84R    0.00  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.17    44.30     0.34    46.23     7.12   -23.80     0.00     0.01     0.00P   43.05R    0.73  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.77    18.27   -11.18    43.41     6.65   -34.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.66R    1.35  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.95     0.14   -15.86    23.06     6.35   -63.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.17  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10