Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 2 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Chelsea 3 1 Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          13   31  +17       5.00    85.35     4.05    78.59     7.01    38.94    36.08    61.08    78.76    90.17    98.73     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          13   27  +13       1.92    65.15     1.29    75.01     7.00    34.63    17.92    39.94    62.04    79.94    96.71     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         13   25  +25      -3.26    22.77     7.37    77.79     6.66    56.96    33.66    60.40    78.80    90.28    98.63     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        13   24   +9       0.77    55.94     0.47    67.60     7.12    23.40     3.05     9.90    21.62    39.09    79.78     0.00     0.00  
Everton          13   24   +8       2.02    65.69     2.09    63.95     7.15    16.51     0.98     3.89     9.80    20.82    61.82     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        13   23   +1       5.98    88.92     3.03    54.37     7.10    -4.96     0.02     0.17     0.62     1.97    12.60     0.37R    0.02  
Southampton      13   22   +6       4.51    83.54     7.25    54.89     7.21     3.65     0.04     0.22     0.85     2.43    15.77     0.29R    0.01  
Man_Utd          13   22   +5      -2.29    30.99    -5.64    72.01     6.88    31.23     8.06    23.42    44.39    66.77    92.62     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        13   21   -3       0.97    58.16    -5.99    59.71     7.17     3.44     0.19     0.96     2.99     7.83    34.24     0.05R    0.00  
Hull             13   17   -4       3.67    79.70     3.55    40.31     6.70   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.21    23.11R    2.48  
Aston_Villa      13   16   -1       0.83    57.99     3.52    46.38     6.94    -7.98     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.13     1.59     5.18R    0.40  
West_Brom        13   15   -1      -1.57    37.71     1.53    48.82     7.21    -2.43     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.30     3.64     2.97R    0.17  
Swansea          13   15   -2      -0.94    43.25     1.26    47.47     7.06    -5.49     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.20     2.41     3.99R    0.21  
Norwich          13   14  -12      -0.06    50.72    -4.78    39.33     6.83   -27.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11    29.50R    4.39  
West_Ham         13   13   -2      -3.25    25.70     0.28    42.81     6.88    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.54    12.54R    1.43  
Stoke            13   13   -6      -1.45    38.45    -0.73    42.35     6.87   -12.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.38    14.13R    1.29  
Cardiff          13   13   -9       0.59    56.73    -0.58    39.27     6.83   -23.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    28.58R    4.52  
Fulham           13   10  -13      -4.52    17.35    -7.26    38.57     6.92   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    32.33R    5.02  
Sunderland       13    8  -16      -5.12    13.32    -9.08    34.71     6.63   -29.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    55.23R   12.63  
Crystal_Palace   13    7  -15      -2.90    25.89    -1.64    26.33     6.25   -41.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.73R   67.43  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Wigan 1 3 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       17   38  +13       8.05    91.77     2.98    85.91     8.11    25.35    38.10    59.49    92.43    68.15P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         17   35  +16       7.25    89.02     9.27    81.86     8.20    26.80    20.71    40.46    83.85    51.28P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             17   35   +9       6.99    88.37     2.19    82.08     8.23    19.76    20.00    39.58    83.14    51.71P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       17   31   +7       4.47    76.95     2.19    74.23     8.12    12.39     4.30    11.43    51.19    20.57P    0.03R    0.00  
Derby           17   28   +9       3.18    70.15     6.77    73.01     8.30    17.09     3.32     9.46    47.15    17.70P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         17   28   +6       0.15    50.72    -0.91    76.04     8.47    18.81     7.01    17.55    61.31    29.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   17   27   +6       1.98    63.26     3.33    69.36     8.21     9.93     1.24     4.26    29.61     9.96P    0.15R    0.00  
Leeds_United    17   26   +4       2.74    68.35     4.03    66.79     8.25     5.54     0.64     2.19    19.98     5.67P    0.34R    0.01  
Brighton        17   25   +5      -1.37    40.70     0.39    70.81     8.03    14.08     1.79     5.34    36.07    13.88P    0.07R    0.00  
Watford         17   23   +3      -3.48    28.07    -1.93    67.47     8.31    10.18     0.88     2.96    23.10     8.10P    0.29R    0.02  
Ipswich         17   23   +3       0.92    57.03     4.76    62.40     8.16     2.48     0.15     0.64     8.64     2.21P    1.27R    0.09  
Huddersfield    17   23   +2       1.42    60.29     4.55    58.83     8.00    -3.94     0.03     0.18     3.79     0.79P    3.40R    0.28  
Blackburn       17   23   +2      -1.22    42.23     0.57    65.07     8.16     5.66     0.32     1.32    14.58     4.34P    0.59R    0.03  
Wigan           16   22   +2      -3.89    25.23    -3.87    68.93     8.60    10.89     1.34     4.35    29.06    11.45P    0.24R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   17   19   +1      -4.60    22.12     0.50    56.85     8.26    -2.18     0.03     0.11     2.74     0.60P    5.99R    0.61  
Bolton          17   19   -5      -4.77    21.14    -5.78    61.21     8.17    -1.25     0.10     0.37     6.59     1.88P    1.96R    0.14  
Bournemouth     17   19  -10       1.31    60.35    -0.44    49.24     8.05   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   28.13R    5.73  
Doncaster       17   19  -11       1.42    61.18    -2.36    48.89     7.93   -26.10     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   29.38R    5.80  
Birmingham      17   18   -2      -5.61    17.38    -2.39    59.71     8.24     1.06     0.05     0.29     5.02     1.41P    2.98R    0.26  
Charlton        17   17   -6      -5.35    17.90    -4.86    54.46     7.98    -8.95     0.01     0.03     1.13     0.29P    9.49R    1.19  
Millwall        17   17  -15      -1.75    38.98    -7.97    49.23     7.85   -26.64     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   27.45R    5.19  
Yeovil          17   12  -11      -3.28    28.69     1.32    41.02     7.79   -27.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.86R   27.57  
Sheff_Wed       16   11   -9      -7.50     8.04    -3.77    45.56     8.16   -18.84     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   43.16R   11.65  
Barnsley        17   11  -19      -5.84    14.59    -8.56    38.74     7.55   -38.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.19R   41.42  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Oldham 1 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.79    95.74    15.69    88.77     7.85    38.21    23.51    57.12    97.41    67.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       6.06    83.53     4.84    95.33     7.69    44.04    62.35    84.60    99.62    89.91P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.15    90.11     6.83    78.48     7.84    17.63     2.26    10.62    74.50    24.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.36    84.11     3.21    79.56     7.78    18.21     2.94    12.91    78.58    28.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.94    61.21    -0.60    83.03     8.04    26.96     7.40    25.96    88.51    44.95P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.89    81.56     9.77    65.58     8.08     3.77     0.07     0.52    16.79     3.12P    1.13R    0.04  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.00    31.39    -0.62    75.84     7.89    23.24     1.27     6.47    64.87    24.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       3.97    73.37    12.52    62.74     7.93     5.81     0.02     0.25    10.17     1.96P    2.38R    0.11  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.29    79.22     3.91    63.79     8.14    -4.01     0.03     0.29    11.73     2.15P    2.34R    0.09  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.83    55.59     1.70    65.77     7.82     4.71     0.05     0.34    16.13     3.60P    0.99R    0.04  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.12    72.99     1.23    65.88     8.11    14.36     0.08     0.57    19.05     5.16P    1.14R    0.06  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.17    16.15    -6.25    64.13     8.25     4.46     0.03     0.32    13.29     3.48P    2.16R    0.15  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.76    39.66     2.29    56.46     7.63    -4.52     0.00     0.01     1.81     0.36P   11.34R    0.94  
Oldham          18   22   -2      -0.04    50.53     1.90    55.74     7.91    -8.91     0.00     0.01     1.75     0.30P   14.54R    1.42  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.71    40.09    -1.47    54.38     7.64   -11.94     0.00     0.01     0.99     0.17P   18.37R    1.77  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.51    47.62     1.84    54.28     7.66   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.15P   18.55R    2.02  
Gillingham      19   21   -8      -0.71    46.58    -1.05    50.27     7.72   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   37.12R    5.83  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.33    53.18    -4.19    49.65     7.49   -26.80     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   40.91R    6.70  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.41    29.96    -6.94    54.97     7.76   -14.11     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.16P   17.22R    1.72  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.73     5.80   -11.05    55.50     7.76    -7.62     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.29P   14.61R    1.36  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.23    24.71    -5.58    47.81     7.61   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   49.26R   10.25  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.69    40.37   -11.16    40.05     7.15   -46.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.72R   47.46  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.38     3.74    -6.12    53.33     8.14    -4.30     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.23P   22.09R    3.17  
Notts_County    19   11  -15     -12.28     1.82   -10.72    45.36     7.75   -19.18     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   60.10R   16.88  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Newport_County 3 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.86    72.84     9.03    76.32     7.76    22.83    18.31    47.37    81.17    56.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.55    59.49     2.18    77.02     7.74    20.17    19.69    50.29    83.03    60.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       3.07    68.54     2.28    76.19     7.81    17.07    16.83    44.89    79.86    54.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.09    62.58    -2.19    76.86     8.10    15.15    19.75    48.16    80.78    57.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.12    78.55     0.33    72.28     7.94     6.26     7.44    25.81    61.38    33.84P    0.08R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.89    85.93     2.83    70.48     7.83     3.67     4.67    18.48    52.42    25.56P    0.13R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.69    76.92     6.06    70.42     7.91     9.99     5.06    19.64    53.69    27.18P    0.12R    0.02  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.54    91.09    11.37    63.35     7.84    -0.96     0.76     4.43    21.21     7.09P    1.44R    0.38  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.79    72.65     4.65    66.36     7.79     4.09     1.81     8.96    33.11    13.96P    0.53R    0.14  
Morecambe            19   29   -1       3.77    72.86     0.17    64.53     7.79    -3.04     1.01     5.50    24.36     9.37P    1.09R    0.36  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.63    46.49    -1.82    64.50     7.80     1.36     0.98     5.51    25.07    10.24P    1.13R    0.35  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.67    73.03     4.57    58.95     7.64    -7.12     0.17     1.11     8.31     2.35P    4.96R    1.81  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.62    28.93    -2.86    64.78     7.91     5.35     1.22     6.62    27.42    12.52P    0.92R    0.30  
Cheltenham           19   23   -5      -2.95    32.27    -4.95    59.33     7.79    -5.85     0.17     1.34     9.41     3.25P    5.02R    1.90  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.67    46.24    -2.34    55.45     7.33   -10.31     0.04     0.30     3.05     0.88P   10.43R    4.28  
Wycombe              18   22   -2      -2.08    37.33    -1.30    58.94     7.92    -4.07     0.19     1.42     9.28     3.29P    5.41R    2.04  
Portsmouth           18   21   -5      -7.03    13.68   -10.01    65.60     8.35     4.27     1.76     8.72    31.70    16.12P    1.20R    0.39  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.35    48.92     2.06    52.52     7.84   -13.18     0.01     0.17     1.94     0.50P   21.55R   10.54  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.44    35.56    -1.06    51.75     7.51   -13.33     0.02     0.08     1.22     0.31P   23.19R   11.52  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.17     9.96    -4.69    57.54     7.93    -0.55     0.10     0.92     7.18     2.71P    7.29R    3.01  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.42    29.61     1.00    51.16     7.51   -10.73     0.00     0.07     1.06     0.29P   24.97R   12.52  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.85    21.68    -1.16    53.19     7.61    -7.85     0.02     0.16     2.10     0.55P   17.28R    8.13  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.73    13.89    -5.93    50.49     7.68   -13.82     0.01     0.07     0.94     0.30P   28.93R   15.09  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.80    10.21    -8.22    47.61     7.66   -19.42     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.07P   44.29R   27.16  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.21    96.72    14.29    89.07     7.29    37.04    44.29    95.91    57.19P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       4.14    73.83     5.90    84.76     7.20    33.72    20.87    88.25    39.70P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.60    65.61    -0.39    83.96     7.30    29.15    18.09    85.50    37.01P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.24    69.80     0.86    82.22     7.50    25.54    12.30    78.77    29.98P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.24    89.65     5.84    67.86     7.02     0.29     0.16    10.52     1.46P    0.06R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.65    84.35     3.94    66.58     7.12    -2.66     0.11     8.14     1.20P    0.17R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.19    31.13    -2.60    76.37     7.20    23.29     3.00    51.89    16.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.14    85.99     5.78    65.31     7.77    -2.92     0.13     7.59     1.15P    0.52R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.17    68.79     6.01    66.24     7.09     5.71     0.09     7.81     1.26P    0.15R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.70    71.98     3.84    68.60     7.36     6.45     0.25    14.10     2.52P    0.07R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.94    67.28     7.84    64.66     7.66     4.39     0.08     6.66     1.16P    0.50R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.16    36.87     0.51    68.15     7.30    11.84     0.20    13.42     2.92P    0.13R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.81    72.12     6.80    64.52     7.78     2.60     0.08     6.52     1.18P    0.68R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.74    14.94    -7.54    69.48     7.25    13.13     0.30    17.23     4.69P    0.06R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.49    35.15    -1.50    60.83     7.35    -1.46     0.02     2.20     0.41P    1.39R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.43    53.60     0.82    60.68     7.32    -3.40     0.02     1.94     0.31P    1.50R    0.00  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.24    17.35    -5.73    60.28     7.10    -0.39     0.01     1.54     0.33P    1.51R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.49    41.68    -5.30    49.35     6.89   -26.70     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.91R    0.20  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.59    23.33    -2.84    48.02     7.11   -21.51     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.50R    0.25  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -1.00    44.37    -1.77    49.13     7.09   -22.60     0.00     0.02     0.00P   27.23R    0.32  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.44    25.42    -8.31    60.50     7.36    10.30     0.00     1.95     0.60P    1.64R    0.01  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.16    44.09     0.42    46.24     7.07   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.26R    0.63  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.81    18.39   -11.22    43.45     6.66   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.80R    1.28  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.83     0.14   -15.66    22.96     6.30   -63.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   97.31  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10