Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 1 December 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Chelsea 3 1 Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          13   31  +17       4.96    85.24     3.99    78.69     6.91    39.10    36.62    61.77    79.51    90.66    98.82     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          13   27  +13       1.98    65.44     1.43    74.92     6.98    34.51    17.47    39.61    61.81    79.62    96.47     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         13   25  +25      -3.28    22.71     7.29    77.75     6.69    56.90    33.29    60.12    78.87    90.34    98.61     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        13   24   +9       0.72    55.42     0.42    67.72     7.13    23.60     3.10    10.17    21.89    39.65    80.16     0.00     0.00  
Everton          13   24   +8       1.97    65.24     2.04    64.01     7.13    16.61     0.98     3.76     9.78    20.77    62.02     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle        13   23   +1       6.03    89.20     3.08    54.35     7.16    -4.98     0.04     0.19     0.73     2.05    12.63     0.39R    0.01  
Southampton      13   22   +6       4.44    83.19     7.16    54.97     7.22     3.78     0.05     0.22     0.86     2.57    15.85     0.25R    0.00  
Man_Utd          13   22   +5      -2.22    31.78    -5.51    71.86     6.90    30.95     8.27    23.11    43.30    65.83    92.27     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        13   21   -3       0.96    58.10    -6.04    59.64     7.22     3.37     0.17     1.01     3.07     7.76    34.15     0.04R    0.00  
Hull             13   17   -4       3.73    80.13     3.66    40.12     6.64   -20.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17    23.87R    2.52  
Aston_Villa      13   16   -1       0.77    57.41     3.38    46.56     6.97    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.13     1.65     4.86R    0.36  
West_Brom        13   15   -1      -1.54    38.03     1.59    48.73     7.24    -2.59     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.35     3.61     3.08R    0.19  
Swansea          13   15   -2      -0.97    43.06     1.23    47.50     7.05    -5.42     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.19     2.32     3.81R    0.23  
Norwich          13   14  -12       0.01    51.34    -4.68    39.30     6.80   -27.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    29.26R    4.04  
West_Ham         13   13   -2      -3.36    24.80     0.12    42.97     6.87    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.51    12.06R    1.23  
Stoke            13   13   -6      -1.45    38.34    -0.73    42.47     6.89   -12.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.41    14.02R    1.36  
Cardiff          13   13   -9       0.64    57.38    -0.50    39.26     6.85   -23.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    28.80R    4.44  
Fulham           13   10  -13      -4.62    16.57    -7.45    38.75     6.90   -23.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    31.17R    4.52  
Sunderland       13    8  -16      -5.03    13.85    -8.94    34.51     6.61   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    56.42R   12.91  
Crystal_Palace   13    7  -15      -2.84    26.40    -1.53    26.15     6.24   -41.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.97R   68.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Wigan 1 3 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       17   38  +13       8.08    91.75     2.97    85.87     8.13    25.28    37.57    59.11    92.20    67.93P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         17   35  +16       7.28    89.29     9.36    81.85     8.14    26.77    20.64    40.32    83.89    51.04P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             17   35   +9       6.89    88.18     2.12    82.17     8.23    19.85    20.47    40.28    83.41    52.23P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       17   31   +7       4.44    76.97     2.14    74.33     8.13    12.52     4.28    11.72    51.81    21.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           17   28   +9       3.33    70.89     6.95    72.86     8.32    16.81     3.26     9.29    46.33    17.33P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         17   28   +6       0.07    49.95    -1.04    76.18     8.50    19.05     7.33    17.70    61.78    30.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   17   27   +6       1.93    63.00     3.23    69.39     8.19    10.01     1.29     4.16    29.48     9.88P    0.12R    0.00  
Leeds_United    17   26   +4       2.61    67.45     3.83    66.91     8.23     5.77     0.65     2.23    20.06     5.80P    0.35R    0.01  
Brighton        17   25   +5      -1.43    40.36     0.32    70.76     8.00    14.02     1.65     5.15    35.72    13.34P    0.07R    0.00  
Watford         17   23   +3      -3.53    27.93    -2.00    67.43     8.31    10.13     0.84     2.80    23.16     7.84P    0.28R    0.02  
Ipswich         17   23   +3       0.88    56.73     4.73    62.53     8.20     2.65     0.18     0.63     9.08     2.36P    1.26R    0.08  
Huddersfield    17   23   +2       1.37    60.08     4.52    58.88     8.05    -3.89     0.04     0.19     3.84     0.83P    3.14R    0.25  
Blackburn       17   23   +2      -1.21    41.95     0.52    65.08     8.15     5.69     0.32     1.29    14.62     4.46P    0.56R    0.03  
Wigan           16   22   +2      -3.84    25.60    -3.80    68.80     8.57    10.68     1.28     4.27    28.55    11.22P    0.22R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   17   19   +1      -4.60    22.11     0.57    56.83     8.25    -2.30     0.03     0.12     2.67     0.58P    5.89R    0.62  
Bolton          17   19   -5      -4.75    21.04    -5.77    61.17     8.16    -1.23     0.08     0.37     6.45     1.80P    2.00R    0.19  
Bournemouth     17   19  -10       1.24    59.77    -0.56    49.26     8.05   -25.90     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.04P   28.01R    5.67  
Doncaster       17   19  -11       1.67    63.34    -2.01    48.53     7.83   -26.62     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   30.51R    5.90  
Birmingham      17   18   -2      -5.59    17.26    -2.43    59.79     8.25     1.21     0.07     0.31     5.26     1.52P    2.87R    0.24  
Charlton        17   17   -6      -5.34    18.12    -4.81    54.56     7.95    -8.74     0.01     0.04     1.05     0.27P    9.30R    1.15  
Millwall        17   17  -15      -1.69    39.24    -7.92    49.26     7.79   -26.59     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.04P   26.98R    5.04  
Yeovil          17   12  -11      -3.31    28.57     1.29    41.03     7.73   -27.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   66.71R   27.35  
Sheff_Wed       16   11   -9      -7.43     8.26    -3.67    45.53     8.13   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   43.42R   11.80  
Barnsley        17   11  -19      -5.85    14.62    -8.54    38.74     7.56   -38.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.26R   41.61  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Oldham 1 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.76    95.76    15.67    88.81     7.79    38.34    23.52    57.55    97.50    67.77P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       6.04    83.48     4.85    95.39     7.64    44.15    62.61    85.18    99.59    90.20P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.07    90.00     6.72    78.60     7.82    17.81     2.33    10.56    75.25    24.30P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.28    84.02     3.13    79.64     7.82    18.32     3.01    13.09    78.54    28.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.91    61.09    -0.65    83.02     8.01    27.00     7.15    25.55    88.75    45.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.93    82.12     9.81    65.64     8.07     3.87     0.06     0.46    16.96     3.02P    1.16R    0.03  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.09    30.91    -0.78    75.83     7.83    23.23     1.15     6.09    64.67    23.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford        19   29  +11       4.06    73.64    12.66    62.64     7.90     5.66     0.02     0.18     9.97     1.84P    2.35R    0.10  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.27    79.44     3.91    63.77     8.08    -4.08     0.03     0.23    11.46     1.96P    2.40R    0.08  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.97    56.59     1.91    65.60     7.78     4.43     0.04     0.28    15.64     3.31P    1.02R    0.02  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.09    73.31     1.13    65.97     8.04    14.49     0.05     0.46    19.18     4.98P    1.06R    0.05  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.22    15.93    -6.28    64.18     8.19     4.55     0.04     0.33    13.35     3.56P    2.01R    0.10  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.80    39.51     2.28    56.49     7.65    -4.53     0.00     0.01     1.81     0.34P   11.19R    0.88  
Oldham          18   22   -2       0.08    51.58     2.09    55.53     7.81    -9.20     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.23P   14.67R    1.33  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.62    40.43    -1.35    54.27     7.62   -12.05     0.00     0.01     0.92     0.16P   18.55R    1.78  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.73    46.26     1.49    54.51     7.66   -10.38     0.00     0.01     0.95     0.14P   18.04R    2.00  
Gillingham      19   21   -8      -0.66    46.98    -0.97    50.24     7.72   -20.29     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   37.23R    5.90  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.28    53.14    -4.21    49.78     7.52   -26.67     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   40.23R    6.44  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.37    30.18    -6.88    54.91     7.73   -14.20     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.20P   17.14R    1.68  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.77     5.67   -11.15    55.58     7.69    -7.50     0.00     0.01     1.33     0.34P   13.97R    1.28  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.28    24.51    -5.70    47.83     7.57   -22.34     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   49.21R   10.04  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.65    40.63   -11.08    39.96     7.09   -46.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    86.41R   47.70  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.29     3.92    -6.04    53.23     8.16    -4.43     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.24P   22.64R    3.23  
Notts_County    19   11  -15     -12.18     1.98   -10.55    45.22     7.78   -19.39     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   60.72R   17.35  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 December 2013, Newport_County 3 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.95    73.36     9.11    76.40     7.72    22.94    18.27    47.51    81.64    56.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         19   33  +10       1.55    59.55     2.17    77.10     7.74    20.30    20.13    50.53    83.35    60.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       3.02    68.50     2.22    76.22     7.83    17.07    16.82    45.26    79.78    55.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.07    62.57    -2.17    76.88     8.07    15.17    19.91    48.36    80.57    57.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.21    79.06     0.46    72.12     7.90     6.02     7.05    24.96    60.70    32.99P    0.07R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.79    85.46     2.72    70.56     7.77     3.80     4.55    18.81    52.59    25.60P    0.10R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.55    76.25     5.88    70.59     7.81    10.26     5.18    20.00    54.38    27.67P    0.10R    0.02  
Newport_County       19   31   +6       8.49    90.99    11.24    63.41     7.86    -0.85     0.80     4.56    21.11     7.24P    1.41R    0.41  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.84    73.13     4.74    66.27     7.72     4.01     1.72     8.29    32.58    13.36P    0.52R    0.15  
Morecambe            19   29   -1       3.76    72.92     0.18    64.42     7.74    -3.19     0.84     5.30    23.51     9.14P    1.02R    0.31  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.74    45.72    -2.00    64.66     7.82     1.55     1.05     5.60    25.85    10.45P    1.15R    0.37  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.63    72.47     4.46    59.05     7.60    -6.96     0.15     1.23     8.39     2.47P    4.83R    1.80  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.51    29.37    -2.67    64.70     7.92     5.22     1.22     6.28    27.17    12.23P    0.99R    0.29  
Cheltenham           19   23   -5      -2.91    32.80    -4.89    59.31     7.84    -5.89     0.18     1.48     9.75     3.47P    4.83R    1.79  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.57    47.24    -2.23    55.31     7.38   -10.52     0.03     0.29     3.01     0.84P   10.94R    4.43  
Wycombe              18   22   -2      -2.22    36.23    -1.48    59.04     7.92    -3.88     0.20     1.45     9.61     3.38P    5.19R    2.03  
Portsmouth           18   21   -5      -7.01    13.88    -9.97    65.51     8.37     4.18     1.72     8.48    31.38    15.74P    1.29R    0.47  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.33    49.12     2.05    52.46     7.82   -13.26     0.01     0.17     1.86     0.53P   21.35R   10.69  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.36    35.94    -0.96    51.69     7.55   -13.42     0.01     0.10     1.26     0.33P   23.84R   11.84  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.06    10.61    -4.52    57.46     8.06    -0.73     0.13     0.97     7.22     2.79P    7.77R    3.28  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.34    29.95     1.17    50.98     7.50   -11.03     0.01     0.10     1.00     0.26P   25.49R   12.69  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.89    21.83    -1.17    53.27     7.64    -7.76     0.03     0.18     2.07     0.60P   17.31R    7.93  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.85    13.29    -6.12    50.57     7.60   -13.69     0.00     0.06     0.90     0.25P   28.14R   14.69  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.82     9.97    -8.24    47.66     7.65   -19.36     0.00     0.02     0.33     0.08P   43.63R   26.78  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.16    96.66    14.22    89.13     7.30    37.16    45.12    95.75    57.73P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       4.17    74.01     5.99    84.65     7.17    33.55    20.49    88.00    39.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.68    66.00    -0.30    83.91     7.31    29.07    18.09    84.98    36.87P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.31    70.14     0.98    82.13     7.40    25.36    11.91    78.78    29.97P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.21    89.77     5.77    67.96     7.03     0.42     0.18    10.72     1.67P    0.06R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.56    83.84     3.73    66.72     7.15    -2.46     0.10     8.33     1.12P    0.12R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.15    31.57    -2.54    76.33     7.21    23.18     2.96    51.81    16.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.19    86.49     5.86    65.29     7.74    -2.95     0.13     7.55     1.17P    0.48R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.23    69.20     6.08    66.13     7.12     5.55     0.09     7.72     1.28P    0.15R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.68    71.84     3.83    68.60     7.36     6.50     0.26    13.90     2.51P    0.07R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.80    66.70     7.52    64.88     7.67     4.74     0.09     7.20     1.24P    0.49R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.14    37.03     0.59    68.11     7.32    11.81     0.16    13.47     3.01P    0.09R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.85    72.28     6.91    64.52     7.75     2.55     0.09     6.34     1.08P    0.64R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.78    14.55    -7.60    69.56     7.20    13.28     0.29    17.74     4.71P    0.07R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.59    34.37    -1.62    61.03     7.36    -1.16     0.01     2.20     0.42P    1.40R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.38    53.08     0.73    60.74     7.42    -3.28     0.01     2.04     0.34P    1.53R    0.00  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.22    17.50    -5.62    60.22     7.14    -0.43     0.01     1.63     0.36P    1.48R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.51    41.53    -5.27    49.22     6.93   -26.89     0.00     0.01     0.00P   27.43R    0.24  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.62    23.29    -2.90    48.14     7.16   -21.37     0.00     0.02     0.01P   32.06R    0.30  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.96    44.77    -1.71    49.07     7.10   -22.73     0.00     0.02     0.00    27.62R    0.29  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.26    26.23    -8.01    60.23     7.37     9.83     0.01     1.79     0.54P    1.87R    0.01  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.25    43.52     0.20    46.32     7.11   -23.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.82R    0.64  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.73    18.54   -11.12    43.36     6.68   -34.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.77R    1.38  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.83     0.14   -15.74    22.98     6.33   -63.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.85R   97.14  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10