Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 30 November 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 November 2013, Aston_Villa 0 0 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          13   31  +17       5.04    85.53     4.15    78.63     6.92    38.87    36.91    60.94    77.98    89.16    98.62     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   24  +11       2.29    68.48     2.66    70.37     7.29    27.52     6.87    18.24    33.98    53.01    87.12     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea          12   24  +11       1.26    60.19     0.90    73.91     7.21    33.25    14.98    34.13    54.12    72.68    94.39     0.00     0.00  
Everton          13   24   +8       2.03    65.76     2.11    63.96     7.13    16.55     1.01     3.73     9.25    19.35    59.58     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        13   23   +1       6.00    89.23     2.99    54.40     7.14    -4.82     0.04     0.17     0.64     1.82    11.51     0.29R    0.02  
Man_City         12   22  +22      -3.70    19.46     6.46    76.99     6.84    55.22    29.82    54.91    73.51    86.45    98.01     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      12   22   +8       4.97    86.61     7.68    55.62     7.33     4.59     0.09     0.38     1.19     3.04    16.89     0.17R    0.00  
Man_Utd          12   21   +5      -1.80    34.07    -5.34    72.44     7.14    31.00    10.01    26.18    45.54    65.50    91.70     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        12   20   -3       1.29    60.87    -6.05    59.90     7.40     3.22     0.26     1.28     3.65     8.33    33.49     0.04R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      13   16   -1       0.78    57.57     3.37    46.46     6.95    -7.70     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.08     1.33     4.43R    0.33  
Swansea          12   15   +1      -0.75    44.70     2.03    48.41     7.23    -3.48     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.29     3.20     2.80R    0.13  
West_Brom        13   15   -1      -1.47    38.61     1.64    48.72     7.10    -2.62     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.26     3.07     2.50R    0.15  
Hull             12   14   -6       2.26    71.42     1.82    36.66     6.75   -25.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    40.71R    7.32  
Norwich          13   14  -12      -0.08    50.58    -4.94    39.31     6.77   -27.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    26.47R    3.75  
West_Ham         13   13   -2      -3.37    24.83     0.08    42.91     6.89    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.39    10.94R    1.18  
Stoke            13   13   -6      -1.42    38.89    -0.71    42.38     6.91   -12.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.35    12.80R    1.16  
Cardiff          13   13   -9       0.58    56.62    -0.61    39.23     6.85   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    26.49R    4.20  
Fulham           13   10  -13      -4.44    17.47    -7.23    38.59     6.87   -23.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    29.58R    4.61  
Sunderland       13    8  -16      -5.21    12.98    -9.22    34.76     6.66   -29.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    51.88R   11.62  
Crystal_Palace   13    7  -15      -2.93    25.73    -1.79    26.27     6.23   -41.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.89R   65.54  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 November 2013, Barnsley 0 3 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       17   38  +13       8.09    91.83     3.05    85.77     8.12    25.07    37.77    59.18    92.25    67.95P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         17   35  +16       7.17    88.82     9.19    81.94     8.14    26.87    20.90    41.01    84.28    51.60P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             17   35   +9       7.03    88.52     2.22    82.12     8.16    19.82    19.94    39.66    83.67    51.71P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       17   31   +7       4.46    77.35     2.15    74.34     8.07    12.57     4.35    11.67    51.87    20.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         17   28   +6       0.20    51.21    -0.85    75.95     8.46    18.69     7.05    17.29    60.78    29.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   17   27   +6       1.97    63.30     3.28    69.29     8.15     9.93     1.19     3.89    29.13     9.46P    0.13R    0.00  
Leeds_United    17   26   +4       2.69    67.91     3.93    66.70     8.25     5.41     0.65     2.17    19.79     5.74P    0.38R    0.03  
Derby           16   25   +7       1.90    63.04     5.26    69.84     8.36    12.70     1.47     4.87    32.70    10.86P    0.12R    0.01  
Brighton        17   25   +5      -1.44    40.20     0.31    70.78     7.99    14.04     1.69     5.43    36.14    13.82P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         17   23   +3      -3.51    27.80    -1.99    67.49     8.35    10.23     0.88     3.00    23.42     8.15P    0.30R    0.01  
Ipswich         17   23   +3       1.03    57.86     4.92    62.36     8.20     2.42     0.15     0.66     8.83     2.15P    1.38R    0.08  
Huddersfield    17   23   +2       1.39    60.03     4.52    58.89     8.07    -3.79     0.06     0.20     3.88     0.85P    3.31R    0.23  
Blackburn       17   23   +2      -1.09    43.11     0.71    64.92     8.08     5.48     0.35     1.15    14.12     4.08P    0.58R    0.03  
Wigan           15   22   +4      -2.90    30.22    -2.43    72.03     8.80    15.47     3.37     8.99    42.88    19.02P    0.11R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   17   19   +1      -4.57    22.08     0.60    56.79     8.30    -2.32     0.02     0.13     2.74     0.67P    6.19R    0.62  
Bolton          17   19   -5      -4.85    20.84    -5.90    61.23     8.17    -1.17     0.09     0.38     6.62     1.86P    2.01R    0.11  
Bournemouth     17   19  -10       1.41    60.88    -0.30    49.07     8.01   -26.14     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.03P   29.06R    6.15  
Doncaster       17   19  -11       1.52    61.92    -2.24    48.83     7.87   -26.13     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   29.45R    5.74  
Birmingham      17   18   -2      -5.61    17.19    -2.42    59.64     8.25     0.99     0.07     0.26     5.01     1.39P    2.95R    0.26  
Charlton        17   17   -6      -5.42    17.56    -4.93    54.71     7.97    -8.58     0.01     0.04     1.27     0.34P    9.15R    1.13  
Millwall        17   17  -15      -1.78    38.74    -8.07    49.28     7.87   -26.51     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.03P   27.32R    4.98  
Yeovil          17   12  -11      -3.29    28.60     1.32    41.04     7.81   -27.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    66.74R   28.22  
Sheff_Wed       16   11   -9      -7.51     7.79    -3.78    45.60     8.14   -18.85     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   43.05R   11.58  
Barnsley        17   11  -19      -5.86    14.53    -8.55    38.85     7.59   -38.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.69R   40.81  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 November 2013, Crewe 1 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   19   43  +25      10.81    95.84    15.74    88.80     7.80    38.25    23.07    56.97    97.37    67.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   43  +21       5.96    83.15     4.69    95.58     7.60    44.45    63.36    85.41    99.67    90.42P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         19   37  +11       8.05    89.90     6.66    78.62     7.81    17.86     2.20    10.54    74.93    24.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       19   37  +10       6.29    83.93     3.13    79.67     7.79    18.38     2.88    12.87    79.10    28.78P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    19   35  +10       1.91    61.12    -0.62    83.01     8.03    26.99     7.04    25.56    88.42    44.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham       19   31   +8       5.85    81.31     9.69    65.65     8.08     3.92     0.07     0.47    16.63     3.03P    1.10R    0.05  
Swindon         19   30  +10      -3.12    30.94    -0.81    75.90     7.92    23.33     1.23     6.59    64.57    24.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       19   29   +0       5.21    79.35     3.82    63.89     8.06    -3.86     0.02     0.22    11.47     2.06P    2.28R    0.07  
Bradford        18   28  +11       4.42    76.25    12.67    62.92     8.20     5.43     0.03     0.26    10.89     2.00P    2.51R    0.08  
Walsall         19   27   +2       0.94    56.42     1.86    65.64     7.79     4.54     0.03     0.30    15.67     3.42P    0.98R    0.03  
Coventry        19   24   +7       4.06    73.15     1.14    66.04     7.98    14.68     0.05     0.48    18.97     4.96P    0.99R    0.05  
MK_Dons         18   22   -1      -6.08    16.57    -6.13    64.03     8.10     4.31     0.02     0.27    12.57     3.15P    2.08R    0.09  
Shrewsbury      19   22   -1      -1.81    39.49     2.22    56.59     7.68    -4.38     0.00     0.01     1.96     0.33P   11.15R    0.89  
Crawley_Town    19   22   -5      -1.62    40.56    -1.32    54.19     7.62   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.17P   18.80R    1.87  
Oldham          17   21   -2       0.43    53.95     2.10    55.99     8.06    -9.11     0.00     0.01     2.01     0.30P   14.21R    1.36  
Colchester      19   21   -5      -0.48    47.98     1.88    54.18     7.65   -10.87     0.00     0.01     0.83     0.14P   18.89R    2.11  
Gillingham      19   21   -8      -0.72    46.51    -1.02    50.27     7.69   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P   36.73R    5.64  
Carlisle        19   21  -13       0.29    53.14    -4.26    49.79     7.52   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   39.83R    6.36  
Tranmere        19   20  -11      -3.36    30.04    -6.86    54.85     7.80   -14.26     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.14P   17.84R    1.68  
Sheff_Utd       19   17  -10      -9.83     5.60   -11.27    55.64     7.80    -7.46     0.00     0.01     1.45     0.34P   14.13R    1.32  
Stevenage       19   17  -13      -4.39    23.89    -5.79    47.92     7.57   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   48.75R    9.62  
Crewe           19   16  -25      -1.55    40.85   -10.94    39.87     7.09   -46.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.51R   47.97  
Bristol_City    19   15   -6     -11.35     3.96    -6.11    53.30     8.19    -4.34     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.27P   22.17R    3.20  
Notts_County    19   11  -15     -12.12     2.07   -10.46    45.15     7.80   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   61.04R   17.61  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 November 2013, Bristol_Rovers 3 0 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           19   34  +15       3.87    72.98     9.03    76.46     7.78    23.03    17.27    46.68    81.79    56.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         18   33  +11       2.93    68.39     3.23    79.16     7.85    22.19    26.96    59.85    88.62    68.65P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             19   33   +8       3.11    69.08     2.38    76.13     7.78    16.95    15.42    43.62    79.43    53.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           19   33   +5       2.12    62.73    -2.14    76.79     8.03    15.02    17.80    46.98    80.47    56.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             19   33   +3       5.09    78.51     0.28    72.21     7.91     6.20     6.67    24.52    61.11    32.59P    0.04R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        19   33   +3       6.96    86.25     2.90    70.50     7.86     3.71     4.18    17.94    52.34    24.83P    0.09R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       19   32   +8       4.56    76.30     5.85    70.46     7.85    10.11     4.69    18.95    53.85    26.92P    0.12R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red            19   30   +5       3.71    72.28     4.55    66.41     7.78     4.19     1.60     8.57    33.65    13.95P    0.52R    0.17  
Morecambe            19   29   -1       3.62    72.02    -0.03    64.59     7.76    -2.92     0.91     5.24    24.76     9.27P    0.99R    0.30  
Newport_County       18   28   +5       6.96    87.43    10.35    60.79     8.00    -3.08     0.39     2.49    13.90     4.37P    3.22R    1.12  
Exeter               19   26   -1      -0.64    46.49    -1.81    64.54     7.88     1.40     0.95     5.51    25.66    10.41P    1.09R    0.37  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   26   -1       3.73    73.21     4.65    58.90     7.64    -7.16     0.13     1.09     8.29     2.36P    5.02R    1.93  
Hartlepool           19   25   +1      -3.66    28.64    -2.88    64.86     7.88     5.43     1.05     6.25    27.90    12.43P    0.90R    0.29  
Cheltenham           19   23   -5      -2.86    33.11    -4.80    59.24     7.75    -5.97     0.15     1.21     9.33     3.12P    4.72R    1.75  
Plymouth             19   23   -5      -0.61    46.98    -2.28    55.34     7.34   -10.40     0.02     0.29     3.05     0.87P   10.60R    4.32  
Wycombe              18   22   -2      -2.20    36.85    -1.45    59.14     7.96    -3.74     0.17     1.53    10.10     3.59P    5.04R    1.96  
Portsmouth           18   21   -5      -6.93    13.91    -9.88    65.43     8.31     4.07     1.49     7.83    30.75    15.01P    1.18R    0.43  
Mansfield            19   21   -5      -0.33    48.91     2.02    52.39     7.84   -13.34     0.01     0.14     1.96     0.50P   21.82R   10.68  
Accrington_Stanley   19   20   -6      -2.46    35.29    -1.11    51.81     7.53   -13.27     0.00     0.09     1.25     0.32P   23.06R   11.46  
Bury                 19   19   -3      -8.13    10.08    -4.67    57.62     7.94    -0.48     0.11     0.91     7.32     2.68P    7.23R    2.94  
York                 19   19   -4      -3.45    29.11     0.98    51.14     7.48   -10.74     0.01     0.08     1.01     0.26P   24.49R   12.08  
Bristol_Rovers       19   19   -4      -4.78    21.93    -1.08    53.19     7.66    -7.88     0.01     0.17     2.21     0.61P   17.17R    8.17  
Northampton          19   17   -9      -6.71    13.68    -5.96    50.49     7.58   -13.80     0.01     0.06     0.91     0.26P   28.34R   14.74  
Torquay              19   15  -13      -7.72    10.21    -8.11    47.54     7.64   -19.51     0.01     0.02     0.36     0.09P   44.33R   27.24  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.24    96.70    14.38    89.06     7.30    37.06    44.31    95.73    56.88P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       4.07    73.69     5.79    84.77     7.14    33.79    20.79    88.44    39.61P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.62    65.62    -0.40    84.01     7.27    29.22    18.24    85.62    36.71P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.29    70.46     0.95    82.19     7.45    25.45    12.19    78.50    30.18P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.17    89.47     5.71    68.02     7.03     0.51     0.19    10.95     1.59P    0.07R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.77    84.63     4.10    66.56     7.14    -2.69     0.09     8.04     1.12P    0.15R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.12    31.98    -2.50    76.26     7.26    23.08     2.97    51.37    17.06P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.15    86.54     5.83    65.33     7.66    -2.89     0.12     7.17     1.06P    0.50R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.14    68.78     5.98    66.18     7.16     5.65     0.09     7.99     1.33P    0.17R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.72    71.91     3.89    68.54     7.36     6.31     0.27    13.84     2.49P    0.07R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.83    66.55     7.61    64.80     7.67     4.59     0.08     6.92     1.21P    0.50R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.28    36.41     0.33    68.23     7.31    12.03     0.21    13.81     3.04P    0.10R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.98    73.11     7.13    64.29     7.72     2.20     0.07     6.03     1.01P    0.66R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.70    14.92    -7.59    69.60     7.25    13.36     0.35    17.86     5.02P    0.06R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.62    34.47    -1.69    61.02     7.38    -1.14     0.02     2.32     0.41P    1.31R    0.01  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.48    53.66     0.87    60.67     7.40    -3.44     0.01     2.04     0.38P    1.50R    0.00  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.18    17.43    -5.57    60.19     7.14    -0.53     0.01     1.52     0.34P    1.56R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.54    41.41    -5.35    49.25     6.88   -26.81     0.00     0.01     0.00P   27.57R    0.22  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.64    23.09    -2.92    48.00     7.11   -21.52     0.00     0.02     0.00P   32.41R    0.26  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.96    44.75    -1.74    49.12     7.06   -22.62     0.00     0.01     0.00P   27.73R    0.29  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.49    24.99    -8.32    60.49     7.34    10.26     0.00     1.80     0.54P    1.67R    0.00  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.26    43.54     0.24    46.38     7.11   -23.65     0.00     0.01     0.00    42.73R    0.56  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.83    17.77   -11.26    43.49     6.63   -34.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.35R    1.21  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.75     0.12   -15.50    22.82     6.32   -63.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   97.45  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10