Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 28 November 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 25 November 2013, West_Brom 2 2 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          12   28  +14       4.36    82.70     2.65    77.12     7.22    35.88    30.88    53.58    71.71    85.47    97.79     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   24  +11       2.17    67.41     2.45    70.71     7.31    28.15     8.38    21.27    37.37    56.75    89.25     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   24  +11       1.16    59.46     0.86    73.91     7.23    33.32    16.38    35.94    56.02    73.97    94.90     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         12   22  +22      -3.71    19.41     6.47    76.87     6.91    54.80    31.30    55.71    74.02    86.90    98.12     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      12   22   +8       4.99    86.39     7.69    55.67     7.37     4.72     0.09     0.39     1.32     3.37    19.20     0.22R    0.00  
Man_Utd          12   21   +5      -1.73    34.49    -5.26    72.65     7.20    31.32    11.90    29.05    48.77    68.66    92.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   21   +4       1.66    63.47    -0.07    61.67     7.31    11.42     0.64     2.42     6.10    13.37    48.40     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        12   20   +0       4.78    84.99     2.59    52.66     7.39    -6.00     0.03     0.13     0.46     1.44     9.68     0.85R    0.05  
Tottenham        12   20   -3       1.25    60.61    -6.21    59.78     7.48     3.02     0.37     1.42     3.88     8.77    35.85     0.07R    0.00  
Swansea          12   15   +1      -0.65    45.48     2.18    48.36     7.19    -3.43     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.33     3.63     2.88R    0.15  
West_Brom        12   15   +0      -0.42    47.02     2.06    50.09     7.48    -1.61     0.01     0.05     0.17     0.66     5.91     2.15R    0.11  
Aston_Villa      12   15   -1       1.45    63.25     3.88    47.31     7.23    -7.02     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.21     2.48     4.25R    0.40  
Hull             12   14   -6       2.11    69.88     1.52    36.67     6.71   -25.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    41.40R    7.34  
Stoke            12   13   -2      -1.20    40.26     1.44    44.21     7.10    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.00     8.75R    0.79  
Cardiff          12   13   -6       0.91    59.52     0.72    40.83     7.16   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.32    20.43R    3.02  
Norwich          12   11  -13      -1.02    42.44    -4.91    38.10     7.04   -27.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    34.10R    6.68  
West_Ham         12   10   -5      -4.19    18.34    -1.74    40.60     7.10   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.26    20.17R    3.17  
Fulham           12   10  -10      -3.98    19.65    -5.63    40.79     7.16   -18.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.32    20.66R    2.81  
Crystal_Palace   12    7  -14      -2.04    32.67    -1.35    26.92     6.48   -41.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.86R   61.15  
Sunderland       12    7  -16      -5.05    12.70    -9.35    34.36     6.89   -30.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    55.19R   14.32  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Charlton 2 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         16   35  +17       8.46    93.45    10.02    83.76     8.34    28.57    26.07    47.34    87.23    57.19P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       16   35  +10       7.61    91.07     1.80    84.01     8.29    22.03    26.30    46.99    87.27    57.39P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             16   35  +10       8.25    92.98     3.02    84.70     8.36    22.48    28.58    50.24    88.51    60.65P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       16   28   +5       3.77    74.01     1.49    72.62     8.34    10.49     2.83     7.85    42.03    15.25P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   16   27   +7       3.17    71.17     4.06    71.04     8.38    11.51     1.85     5.75    35.44    12.18P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds_United    16   26   +5       3.67    74.18     4.34    67.97     8.39     6.20     0.81     2.67    23.03     6.67P    0.19R    0.01  
Derby           16   25   +7       1.88    62.88     5.23    69.90     8.50    12.79     1.45     4.57    31.59    10.44P    0.10R    0.01  
Reading         16   25   +5      -1.16    42.10    -1.42    73.69     8.68    16.73     4.07    10.88    48.63    21.35P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        16   24   +5      -0.93    43.42     0.52    71.90     8.23    15.15     2.14     6.57    39.93    15.82P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         16   23   +6      -2.38    33.93     0.62    71.58     8.48    17.66     2.46     6.90    39.74    15.72P    0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           15   22   +4      -2.92    30.13    -2.45    71.95     8.83    15.38     2.93     8.13    40.88    17.91P    0.09R    0.00  
Ipswich         16   20   +2      -0.59    46.46     4.01    60.02     8.44     0.28     0.06     0.28     5.44     1.25P    2.74R    0.19  
Huddersfield    16   20   +1      -0.10    50.19     3.73    56.79     8.16    -5.51     0.02     0.10     2.38     0.53P    5.16R    0.47  
Blackburn       16   20   +1      -2.39    34.05     0.22    63.58     8.37     4.84     0.24     0.84    10.80     3.13P    0.97R    0.07  
Bolton          16   19   -4      -3.81    25.48    -5.37    62.96     8.42     0.30     0.14     0.62     9.51     2.76P    1.31R    0.08  
Bournemouth     16   18  -10       1.44    61.39    -0.77    49.29     8.23   -26.35     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   26.53R    4.92  
Charlton        16   17   -5      -4.07    23.85    -3.91    56.85     8.25    -6.49     0.01     0.09     2.31     0.52P    5.34R    0.53  
Millwall        16   17  -12      -1.48    40.46    -6.76    50.52     8.02   -23.81     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.05P   20.51R    2.94  
Middlesbrough   16   16   +0      -5.93    14.60    -0.02    55.17     8.38    -3.43     0.01     0.07     1.68     0.40P    8.16R    0.90  
Doncaster       16   16  -12      -0.09    51.01    -3.04    45.91     8.05   -29.03     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   41.31R    9.40  
Birmingham      16   15   -5      -6.53    12.22    -4.32    57.31     8.41    -3.12     0.02     0.11     2.81     0.72P    5.29R    0.51  
Sheff_Wed       15   11   -7      -6.99     9.05    -3.02    46.97     8.35   -16.94     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.04P   34.19R    7.48  
Barnsley        16   11  -16      -5.18    16.72    -6.75    40.97     7.89   -34.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.91R   24.57  
Yeovil          16    9  -14      -4.64    19.17    -1.21    36.61     7.77   -35.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.98R   47.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Bradford 1 1 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   18   43  +22       7.18    89.12     5.38    97.55     7.84    46.54    69.51    90.49    99.82    93.73P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   18   42  +25      11.23    96.83    15.76    89.68     8.04    39.07    22.71    65.08    98.14    73.46P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         18   34  +10       6.85    86.78     6.30    77.04     8.09    16.92     1.29     8.37    70.63    21.75P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       18   34   +9       5.11    79.35     2.78    77.88     8.07    17.16     1.59    10.09    73.40    25.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    18   32   +9       0.42    52.16    -1.42    80.66     8.30    24.88     3.91    17.96    83.29    38.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford        18   28  +11       4.46    76.11    12.76    63.03     8.17     5.60     0.02     0.31    12.59     2.33P    2.83R    0.06  
Rotherham       18   28   +5       5.45    80.99     8.52    62.89     8.23    -0.84     0.02     0.22    11.54     2.00P    3.48R    0.11  
Swindon         18   27   +8      -3.67    27.12    -1.11    74.58     8.09    21.80     0.73     5.25    60.91    22.10P    0.05R    0.00  
Walsall         18   27   +4       1.91    62.48     3.31    68.21     8.05     8.28     0.08     0.91    28.30     6.58P    0.67R    0.01  
Port_Vale       18   26   -2       4.05    74.32     2.68    60.70     8.21    -8.50     0.00     0.09     7.39     1.28P    6.36R    0.29  
MK_Dons         17   22   +1      -5.29    19.02    -5.02    66.82     8.37     8.51     0.11     0.80    24.17     6.84P    1.21R    0.05  
Crawley_Town    18   22   -4      -0.28    49.03    -0.35    56.17     7.90   -10.40     0.00     0.01     2.25     0.36P   14.75R    1.22  
Coventry        18   21   +5       2.85    67.12    -0.18    63.60     8.32    11.26     0.02     0.34    15.08     3.93P    2.71R    0.19  
Oldham          17   21   -2       0.50    54.19     2.21    55.79     8.07    -9.42     0.00     0.01     2.33     0.41P   16.25R    1.26  
Colchester      18   21   -4       0.41    53.94     2.15    55.98     7.86    -9.27     0.00     0.01     1.93     0.32P   15.35R    1.24  
Gillingham      18   21   -5      -0.51    47.59     0.04    52.80     7.99   -15.26     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.18P   27.41R    2.96  
Carlisle        18   21  -11       0.73    56.05    -3.81    50.79     7.76   -25.26     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.07P   37.58R    4.84  
Shrewsbury      18   19   -3      -2.91    32.10     0.93    54.20     7.82    -7.38     0.00     0.01     1.28     0.26P   20.17R    1.92  
Stevenage       18   17  -11      -3.41    28.82    -4.47    49.97     7.86   -19.03     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P   40.40R    5.82  
Tranmere        18   17  -12      -4.57    22.82    -7.18    52.83     7.92   -15.88     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.13P   27.12R    2.97  
Sheff_Utd       18   16  -10      -9.61     5.49   -11.39    55.44     8.05    -8.33     0.00     0.02     1.86     0.44P   17.05R    1.40  
Bristol_City    18   15   -5     -10.61     4.63    -6.10    54.96     8.47    -2.94     0.00     0.01     2.39     0.60P   19.16R    2.03  
Crewe           18   13  -26      -3.21    29.68   -11.79    37.74     7.29   -49.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.61R   61.12  
Notts_County    18   11  -14     -11.16     2.68    -9.99    46.62     8.06   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   55.83R   12.52  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           18   33  +15       4.20    75.07     8.97    76.93     8.03    23.18    18.79    48.92    82.32    58.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         18   33  +11       2.89    68.26     3.13    79.24     7.89    22.38    26.61    59.91    88.68    68.86P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             18   32   +8       3.58    72.24     2.51    77.12     8.03    17.84    18.27    48.36    82.21    58.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             18   32   +3       5.51    80.65     0.40    72.98     8.20     6.70     8.15    28.08    64.15    36.34P    0.07R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       18   31   +8       4.99    78.97     5.99    70.86     8.10    10.14     5.32    20.79    55.79    28.38P    0.13R    0.04  
Scunthorpe           18   30   +3       1.48    59.23    -2.67    74.97     8.32    12.75    12.67    37.38    73.17    47.85P    0.04R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        18   30   +2       5.48    81.04     2.23    68.57     8.05     2.27     2.63    12.86    43.23    19.11P    0.36R    0.11  
Newport_County       18   28   +5       7.05    87.63    10.49    60.59     8.13    -3.49     0.39     2.49    13.72     4.34P    3.65R    1.39  
Dag_&_Red            18   27   +3       2.74    67.52     3.52    64.11     7.92     1.18     0.85     5.12    24.11     9.10P    1.31R    0.42  
AFC_Wimbledon        18   26   +2       4.11    75.40     6.16    61.18     7.88    -2.79     0.33     2.43    14.15     4.53P    2.96R    1.04  
Morecambe            18   26   -2       2.47    66.20    -0.35    62.52     7.93    -4.60     0.51     3.37    17.83     6.35P    2.21R    0.72  
Exeter               18   25   -1      -0.19    49.29    -1.72    65.05     8.17     1.63     1.28     6.68    28.10    11.89P    1.14R    0.34  
Hartlepool           18   24   +1      -3.19    30.67    -2.75    65.39     8.20     5.64     1.48     7.43    30.60    13.92P    0.98R    0.32  
Plymouth             18   23   -4       0.38    53.19    -1.70    57.18     7.64    -8.86     0.07     0.62     5.55     1.59P    7.54R    2.90  
Wycombe              17   22   +0      -1.41    41.10    -0.27    61.06     8.24    -0.93     0.43     2.87    15.34     5.82P    3.52R    1.32  
Cheltenham           18   22   -5      -2.77    33.01    -5.23    59.07     7.98    -6.79     0.15     1.32     9.58     3.17P    5.51R    2.16  
Mansfield            18   21   -4       0.76    56.12     2.61    54.08     8.06   -11.89     0.02     0.33     3.31     0.89P   16.45R    7.67  
Portsmouth           17   20   -5      -6.72    14.15   -10.09    65.95     8.66     4.33     1.89     9.48    33.83    16.94P    1.33R    0.44  
Accrington_Stanley   18   20   -5      -1.46    41.55    -0.53    53.16     7.79   -12.33     0.01     0.16     2.22     0.59P   19.02R    8.90  
Bury                 18   18   -3      -7.76    10.47    -4.65    57.72     8.23    -0.87     0.15     1.18     8.16     3.18P    7.82R    3.16  
York                 18   18   -4      -3.21    30.34     0.89    51.35     7.80   -11.19     0.00     0.08     1.47     0.39P   24.59R   12.48  
Bristol_Rovers       18   16   -7      -5.69    17.29    -3.03    50.72     7.86   -12.05     0.01     0.06     1.18     0.32P   27.72R   14.56  
Torquay              18   15  -11      -7.27    11.20    -7.53    48.98     7.87   -17.39     0.00     0.04     0.64     0.17P   36.87R   21.06  
Northampton          18   14  -10      -8.00     8.64    -6.38    48.83     7.83   -14.89     0.00     0.04     0.65     0.20P   36.78R   20.96  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.36    96.86    14.48    88.95     7.29    36.87    44.10    95.71    56.50P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       3.99    73.35     5.70    84.83     7.13    33.87    21.31    88.76    40.25P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.67    65.69    -0.27    83.93     7.34    29.09    18.49    85.01    37.15P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.38    70.48     1.07    82.05     7.44    25.23    11.80    78.12    29.77P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.15    89.42     5.66    68.02     7.07     0.51     0.13    10.96     1.53P    0.06R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.82    84.69     4.17    66.41     7.15    -2.92     0.11     7.86     1.04P    0.19R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.15    31.66    -2.53    76.31     7.24    23.17     2.89    51.80    16.84P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.20    86.29     5.89    65.25     7.73    -3.00     0.14     7.43     1.26P    0.49R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.13    68.72     5.94    66.23     7.13     5.72     0.09     7.96     1.37P    0.12R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.73    72.03     3.89    68.56     7.36     6.38     0.27    14.06     2.52P    0.05R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.87    66.87     7.70    64.73     7.62     4.53     0.08     6.89     1.13P    0.44R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.16    37.05     0.53    68.17     7.35    11.85     0.18    13.81     2.96P    0.07R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.90    72.67     7.00    64.42     7.74     2.45     0.07     6.36     1.10P    0.69R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.71    14.77    -7.55    69.56     7.21    13.27     0.31    17.59     4.92P    0.04R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.66    34.06    -1.75    61.12     7.37    -1.01     0.01     2.38     0.45P    1.29R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.37    53.12     0.73    60.73     7.37    -3.37     0.01     1.94     0.35P    1.48R    0.00  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.16    17.62    -5.53    60.21     7.08    -0.48     0.00     1.44     0.31P    1.52R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.60    41.13    -5.45    49.29     6.93   -26.70     0.00     0.02     0.00    27.49R    0.23  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.64    23.23    -2.92    48.09     7.11   -21.43     0.00     0.03     0.00P   32.33R    0.26  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.96    44.83    -1.70    49.05     7.06   -22.71     0.00     0.02     0.00    28.10R    0.35  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.40    25.56    -8.23    60.38     7.39    10.08     0.00     1.86     0.56P    1.88R    0.01  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.33    43.35     0.05    46.50     7.15   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.18R    0.55  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.81    18.31   -11.20    43.43     6.71   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.67R    1.42  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.83     0.14   -15.68    22.99     6.34   -63.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.88R   97.17  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10