Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 27 November 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 25 November 2013, West_Brom 2 2 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          12   28  +14       4.45    83.29     2.83    77.08     7.23    35.72    30.57    53.54    71.66    85.56    97.70     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   24  +11       2.20    67.58     2.53    70.58     7.35    27.88     8.23    20.66    36.84    56.31    88.57     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   24  +11       1.24    60.11     0.98    73.79     7.17    33.10    15.81    35.09    55.16    73.50    95.03     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         12   22  +22      -3.70    19.49     6.47    76.94     6.88    54.91    31.77    56.61    74.70    87.03    98.16     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      12   22   +8       4.95    86.07     7.62    55.78     7.43     4.91     0.11     0.43     1.38     3.59    19.73     0.20R    0.00  
Man_Utd          12   21   +5      -1.81    33.81    -5.38    72.80     7.17    31.56    12.55    29.74    49.45    69.08    93.25     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   21   +4       1.70    64.14    -0.00    61.59     7.37    11.29     0.58     2.28     6.07    13.27    48.04     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        12   20   +0       4.76    84.66     2.60    52.58     7.42    -6.08     0.01     0.12     0.46     1.36     9.76     0.85R    0.06  
Tottenham        12   20   -3       1.20    60.33    -6.25    59.73     7.48     2.94     0.35     1.43     3.93     8.92    35.51     0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          12   15   +1      -0.67    45.31     2.17    48.35     7.24    -3.46     0.00     0.03     0.08     0.34     3.68     2.93R    0.18  
West_Brom        12   15   +0      -0.49    46.52     1.97    50.14     7.44    -1.47     0.01     0.06     0.19     0.65     5.85     1.94R    0.10  
Aston_Villa      12   15   -1       1.41    63.30     3.74    47.42     7.24    -6.88     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.25     2.61     4.27R    0.32  
Hull             12   14   -6       2.06    69.53     1.45    36.80     6.75   -24.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    40.24R    7.51  
Stoke            12   13   -2      -1.19    40.22     1.46    44.15     7.09    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.95     8.95R    0.86  
Cardiff          12   13   -6       0.96    59.89     0.81    40.79     7.16   -19.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.32    20.75R    3.23  
Norwich          12   11  -13      -1.03    42.13    -4.92    38.08     7.04   -28.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    34.35R    6.65  
West_Ham         12   10   -5      -4.06    19.18    -1.58    40.47     7.11   -13.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.29    20.71R    3.13  
Fulham           12   10  -10      -3.90    20.24    -5.53    40.72     7.22   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.36    21.19R    2.98  
Crystal_Palace   12    7  -14      -2.10    31.91    -1.55    27.01     6.45   -41.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.56R   60.69  
Sunderland       12    7  -16      -5.06    12.40    -9.41    34.39     6.86   -30.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    54.97R   14.30  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Charlton 2 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         16   35  +17       8.40    93.09     9.90    83.99     8.37    28.88    27.12    48.35    87.73    58.08P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       16   35  +10       7.54    91.08     1.66    84.18     8.24    22.27    26.57    47.52    87.98    57.90P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             16   35  +10       8.34    93.14     3.15    84.56     8.42    22.30    27.79    49.34    88.38    60.01P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       16   28   +5       3.74    73.78     1.48    72.61     8.35    10.43     2.73     7.86    41.83    15.44P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   16   27   +7       3.13    70.97     3.95    71.13     8.35    11.66     1.95     5.83    35.80    12.67P    0.07R    0.00  
Leeds_United    16   26   +5       3.61    73.93     4.27    68.03     8.38     6.36     0.75     2.80    23.15     6.67P    0.23R    0.01  
Derby           16   25   +7       1.87    62.97     5.23    69.86     8.48    12.74     1.43     4.59    31.17    10.19P    0.12R    0.01  
Reading         16   25   +5      -1.27    41.03    -1.54    73.81     8.67    16.83     4.09    10.84    49.31    21.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton        16   24   +5      -0.97    43.16     0.46    71.85     8.18    15.09     1.99     6.21    39.50    15.48P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         16   23   +6      -2.36    34.36     0.65    71.55     8.45    17.61     2.35     6.92    39.61    15.57P    0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           15   22   +4      -2.78    31.18    -2.26    71.67     8.85    14.97     2.75     7.61    40.14    17.07P    0.07R    0.00  
Ipswich         16   20   +2      -0.63    46.41     3.96    59.98     8.34     0.24     0.05     0.24     5.09     1.12P    2.59R    0.17  
Huddersfield    16   20   +1      -0.17    49.73     3.63    56.96     8.19    -5.24     0.02     0.10     2.43     0.49P    5.10R    0.49  
Blackburn       16   20   +1      -2.34    34.47     0.29    63.52     8.35     4.76     0.19     0.84    10.81     3.07P    0.97R    0.04  
Bolton          16   19   -4      -3.75    25.76    -5.30    62.89     8.46     0.18     0.17     0.71     9.48     2.80P    1.26R    0.06  
Bournemouth     16   18  -10       1.35    60.91    -0.85    49.44     8.27   -26.18     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P   25.60R    4.72  
Charlton        16   17   -5      -4.11    23.79    -3.98    56.85     8.23    -6.45     0.02     0.08     2.31     0.52P    5.30R    0.50  
Millwall        16   17  -12      -1.52    40.17    -6.87    50.63     8.05   -23.61     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.06P   20.16R    2.95  
Middlesbrough   16   16   +0      -6.00    14.39    -0.03    55.06     8.42    -3.53     0.02     0.06     1.71     0.39P    8.24R    0.85  
Doncaster       16   16  -12      -0.02    51.43    -2.95    45.87     7.96   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   41.42R    8.87  
Birmingham      16   15   -5      -6.40    12.88    -4.17    57.19     8.40    -3.30     0.01     0.08     2.68     0.66P    5.45R    0.53  
Sheff_Wed       15   11   -7      -7.06     8.70    -3.17    47.10     8.34   -16.67     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.03P   33.68R    6.76  
Barnsley        16   11  -16      -5.08    17.32    -6.61    40.90     7.88   -34.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   66.52R   24.38  
Yeovil          16    9  -14      -4.48    19.80    -0.92    36.32     7.77   -36.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.04R   49.66  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Bradford 1 1 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   18   43  +22       7.22    88.62     5.40    97.47     7.92    46.48    69.25    89.98    99.84    93.31P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   18   42  +25      11.30    96.94    15.87    89.57     8.08    38.91    22.57    64.50    98.03    72.99P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         18   34  +10       6.88    86.66     6.38    76.97     8.03    16.79     1.40     8.21    70.13    21.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       18   34   +9       5.10    79.56     2.74    77.94     8.06    17.19     1.64    10.08    73.61    25.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough    18   32   +9       0.40    52.00    -1.46    80.72     8.31    25.00     4.13    18.69    83.63    38.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford        18   28  +11       4.34    75.53    12.57    63.20     8.21     5.90     0.02     0.37    12.94     2.51P    2.69R    0.08  
Rotherham       18   28   +5       5.41    80.53     8.49    63.00     8.29    -0.69     0.02     0.26    11.89     1.93P    3.41R    0.14  
Swindon         18   27   +8      -3.84    26.20    -1.35    74.84     8.07    22.16     0.76     5.57    62.27    22.97P    0.07R    0.00  
Walsall         18   27   +4       1.85    62.15     3.21    68.33     8.05     8.38     0.11     1.03    28.42     6.81P    0.64R    0.01  
Port_Vale       18   26   -2       4.20    75.12     2.92    60.49     8.24    -8.79     0.01     0.12     7.07     1.15P    6.61R    0.33  
MK_Dons         17   22   +1      -5.14    19.83    -4.79    66.57     8.42     8.10     0.07     0.79    23.34     6.48P    1.39R    0.05  
Crawley_Town    18   22   -4      -0.35    48.48    -0.49    56.35     7.92   -10.13     0.00     0.01     2.33     0.40P   14.45R    1.13  
Coventry        18   21   +5       2.89    67.13    -0.10    63.50     8.29    11.14     0.02     0.33    14.67     3.89P    2.69R    0.14  
Oldham          17   21   -2       0.51    54.44     2.23    55.84     8.02    -9.30     0.00     0.01     2.20     0.37P   15.82R    1.28  
Colchester      18   21   -4       0.39    53.65     2.11    55.95     7.83    -9.26     0.00     0.01     1.93     0.29P   15.41R    1.24  
Gillingham      18   21   -5      -0.33    48.78     0.27    52.58     8.05   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.14P   28.54R    3.17  
Carlisle        18   21  -11       0.67    55.63    -3.90    50.80     7.73   -25.25     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P   37.53R    4.57  
Shrewsbury      18   19   -3      -2.87    32.27     1.02    54.09     7.80    -7.57     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.21P   20.37R    2.05  
Stevenage       18   17  -11      -3.35    29.24    -4.41    49.91     7.80   -19.14     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P   40.69R    5.75  
Tranmere        18   17  -12      -4.68    22.28    -7.41    53.08     7.92   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.13P   26.21R    2.73  
Sheff_Utd       18   16  -10      -9.74     5.25   -11.62    55.53     7.94    -8.13     0.00     0.01     1.79     0.47P   16.49R    1.39  
Bristol_City    18   15   -5     -10.44     4.81    -5.84    54.74     8.41    -3.26     0.00     0.01     2.15     0.51P   19.68R    2.09  
Crewe           18   13  -26      -3.15    30.11   -11.66    37.67     7.31   -49.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.63R   61.70  
Notts_County    18   11  -14     -11.29     2.61   -10.19    46.71     8.04   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   55.64R   12.14  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           18   33  +15       4.22    75.01     9.01    76.96     7.99    23.24    18.61    48.88    82.54    58.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         18   33  +11       2.88    67.95     3.14    79.31     7.91    22.40    26.47    59.95    88.81    68.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             18   32   +8       3.61    72.31     2.51    77.19     8.01    17.94    18.60    48.64    82.67    58.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             18   32   +3       5.55    81.22     0.44    72.97     8.21     6.69     8.08    27.84    64.06    35.92P    0.08R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       18   31   +8       5.05    79.02     6.08    70.80     8.15    10.06     5.31    20.87    55.46    28.60P    0.12R    0.03  
Scunthorpe           18   30   +3       1.39    58.87    -2.78    75.19     8.29    13.06    13.02    38.36    74.33    48.99P    0.03R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        18   30   +2       5.44    80.98     2.15    68.62     8.02     2.31     2.65    12.79    43.41    19.03P    0.32R    0.08  
Newport_County       18   28   +5       6.99    87.48    10.39    60.62     8.04    -3.36     0.34     2.26    13.55     4.05P    3.56R    1.24  
Dag_&_Red            18   27   +3       2.66    67.10     3.43    64.13     8.00     1.23     0.94     5.33    24.28     9.39P    1.35R    0.46  
AFC_Wimbledon        18   26   +2       4.10    75.19     6.16    61.11     7.92    -2.92     0.32     2.31    14.23     4.45P    3.13R    1.07  
Morecambe            18   26   -2       2.52    66.31    -0.29    62.41     7.99    -4.76     0.56     3.42    17.69     6.42P    2.29R    0.77  
Exeter               18   25   -1      -0.24    49.02    -1.78    65.18     8.00     1.79     1.19     6.38    28.31    11.77P    1.08R    0.32  
Hartlepool           18   24   +1      -3.17    31.06    -2.74    65.33     8.16     5.58     1.29     7.46    30.31    13.84P    1.00R    0.31  
Plymouth             18   23   -4       0.37    53.11    -1.73    57.16     7.57    -8.85     0.06     0.62     5.37     1.60P    7.44R    2.93  
Wycombe              17   22   +0      -1.36    41.52    -0.23    61.06     8.24    -0.95     0.43     2.82    15.35     5.73P    3.54R    1.32  
Cheltenham           18   22   -5      -2.71    33.34    -5.12    58.98     7.94    -6.93     0.16     1.32     9.35     3.10P    5.51R    1.96  
Mansfield            18   21   -4       0.81    56.70     2.67    54.13     8.05   -11.81     0.04     0.32     3.27     0.87P   16.40R    7.57  
Portsmouth           17   20   -5      -6.63    14.66    -9.92    65.81     8.64     4.07     1.77     8.89    33.25    16.18P    1.41R    0.48  
Accrington_Stanley   18   20   -5      -1.41    41.73    -0.49    53.02     7.76   -12.50     0.02     0.20     2.07     0.58P   19.24R    9.20  
Bury                 18   18   -3      -7.76    10.65    -4.66    57.60     8.25    -1.01     0.11     1.07     7.85     3.02P    8.12R    3.35  
York                 18   18   -4      -3.21    30.27     0.90    51.40     7.80   -11.09     0.01     0.11     1.40     0.39P   24.56R   12.31  
Bristol_Rovers       18   16   -7      -5.74    16.84    -3.04    50.77     7.87   -12.01     0.01     0.08     1.14     0.30P   27.84R   14.53  
Torquay              18   15  -11      -7.24    11.27    -7.48    48.97     7.81   -17.43     0.01     0.04     0.65     0.16P   36.78R   21.18  
Northampton          18   14  -10      -8.15     8.12    -6.61    48.95     7.87   -14.74     0.00     0.04     0.64     0.20P   36.16R   20.86  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.30    96.96    14.44    88.95     7.26    36.87    43.70    95.69    56.26P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       4.07    73.48     5.81    84.72     7.13    33.72    20.69    88.17    39.49P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.47    64.71    -0.57    84.16     7.28    29.48    18.98    86.01    37.87P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.23    69.69     0.86    82.22     7.42    25.49    12.26    78.80    30.27P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.14    89.61     5.67    68.03     7.02     0.53     0.15    10.89     1.55P    0.07R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.73    84.47     4.05    66.55     7.15    -2.75     0.09     8.16     1.12P    0.16R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.14    31.50    -2.57    76.33     7.23    23.15     2.99    51.70    16.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.12    86.16     5.73    65.39     7.71    -2.79     0.12     7.58     1.18P    0.44R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.19    68.90     6.05    66.23     7.08     5.73     0.10     7.76     1.35P    0.14R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.71    72.13     3.85    68.55     7.43     6.40     0.24    14.08     2.47P    0.08R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.87    66.96     7.62    64.75     7.62     4.56     0.09     6.86     1.10P    0.43R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.16    37.02     0.55    68.16     7.30    11.90     0.22    13.29     2.98P    0.10R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.87    72.51     6.97    64.39     7.69     2.34     0.06     6.02     0.98P    0.65R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.70    14.76    -7.51    69.54     7.19    13.25     0.28    17.42     4.83P    0.05R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.58    34.52    -1.64    61.01     7.43    -1.18     0.02     2.34     0.44P    1.40R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.44    53.64     0.82    60.64     7.36    -3.48     0.00     1.86     0.32P    1.56R    0.00  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.24    17.08    -5.64    60.24     7.14    -0.41     0.00     1.56     0.34P    1.52R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.43    42.35    -5.20    49.17     6.89   -26.99     0.00     0.02     0.00P   27.67R    0.23  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.49    23.92    -2.68    47.90     7.13   -21.74     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.11R    0.28  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.98    44.73    -1.72    49.12     7.10   -22.64     0.00     0.01     0.00P   27.70R    0.29  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.30    26.22    -8.08    60.31     7.36     9.98     0.00     1.77     0.54P    1.83R    0.00  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.37    42.99     0.08    46.52     7.17   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00P   41.75R    0.60  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.81    18.11   -11.22    43.44     6.64   -34.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.48R    1.29  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.83     0.13   -15.69    22.99     6.31   -63.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   97.30  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10