Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 26 November 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 25 November 2013, West_Brom 2 2 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          12   28  +14       4.31    82.30     2.60    77.27     7.21    36.05    31.36    54.21    72.42    85.84    97.91     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   24  +11       2.14    67.11     2.46    70.68     7.35    28.13     8.25    20.81    37.03    56.19    88.86     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   24  +11       1.18    59.52     0.90    73.88     7.19    33.18    15.83    35.27    55.23    73.87    95.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         12   22  +22      -3.71    19.68     6.50    76.96     6.89    55.07    31.70    56.40    74.36    87.06    97.95     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      12   22   +8       4.97    86.32     7.66    55.66     7.44     4.71     0.09     0.44     1.37     3.51    19.15     0.17R    0.00  
Man_Utd          12   21   +5      -1.80    34.19    -5.35    72.76     7.11    31.56    11.84    28.95    48.85    68.91    93.31     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   21   +4       1.62    63.20    -0.10    61.75     7.36    11.50     0.59     2.36     6.12    13.36    48.70     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        12   20   +0       4.76    84.50     2.57    52.66     7.42    -5.98     0.03     0.14     0.47     1.39     9.75     0.88R    0.04  
Tottenham        12   20   -3       1.22    60.47    -6.23    59.72     7.42     2.95     0.30     1.30     3.73     8.57    35.32     0.04R    0.00  
Swansea          12   15   +1      -0.69    45.08     2.14    48.35     7.24    -3.49     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.31     3.58     3.05R    0.23  
West_Brom        12   15   +0      -0.47    46.64     1.97    50.21     7.46    -1.35     0.01     0.06     0.24     0.67     5.93     1.97R    0.12  
Aston_Villa      12   15   -1       1.41    63.30     3.75    47.50     7.22    -6.80     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.23     2.65     4.02R    0.31  
Hull             12   14   -6       2.16    70.55     1.53    36.68     6.72   -25.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    40.86R    7.27  
Stoke            12   13   -2      -1.10    41.23     1.58    43.97     7.05    -8.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.91     8.84R    0.85  
Cardiff          12   13   -6       0.95    59.71     0.78    40.74     7.09   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.30    20.39R    2.99  
Norwich          12   11  -13      -1.01    42.14    -4.87    37.93     7.00   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    34.90R    6.81  
West_Ham         12   10   -5      -4.09    19.05    -1.63    40.52     7.10   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25    20.27R    3.09  
Fulham           12   10  -10      -3.85    20.24    -5.50    40.65     7.20   -18.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.30    21.26R    2.88  
Crystal_Palace   12    7  -14      -2.05    32.48    -1.37    26.91     6.43   -41.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.71R   61.14  
Sunderland       12    7  -16      -5.05    12.61    -9.40    34.41     6.89   -30.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    54.61R   14.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Charlton 2 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         16   35  +17       8.44    93.45     9.97    83.86     8.35    28.74    26.27    47.42    87.36    57.04P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       16   35  +10       7.53    90.98     1.63    84.14     8.30    22.24    26.24    47.51    87.53    57.84P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             16   35  +10       8.23    93.01     3.00    84.78     8.29    22.57    28.59    50.16    88.98    61.22P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       16   28   +5       3.71    73.99     1.45    72.71     8.28    10.56     2.66     7.66    42.35    15.52P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   16   27   +7       3.09    70.89     3.94    71.16     8.34    11.71     1.91     5.72    35.60    12.14P    0.07R    0.00  
Leeds_United    16   26   +5       3.59    73.53     4.24    68.18     8.45     6.47     0.87     2.90    23.92     6.98P    0.22R    0.01  
Derby           16   25   +7       1.82    62.49     5.17    70.06     8.42    13.00     1.36     4.45    31.82    10.24P    0.11R    0.01  
Reading         16   25   +5      -1.20    41.71    -1.46    73.80     8.66    16.84     4.13    10.91    48.77    21.68P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton        16   24   +5      -0.84    44.27     0.66    71.73     8.25    14.91     2.15     6.23    38.69    14.98P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         16   23   +6      -2.46    33.72     0.48    71.63     8.50    17.74     2.38     6.90    39.58    15.61P    0.06R    0.00  
Wigan           15   22   +4      -2.92    29.94    -2.46    71.97     8.93    15.43     2.99     8.20    41.01    17.70P    0.09R    0.01  
Ipswich         16   20   +2      -0.56    46.74     4.03    60.08     8.47     0.35     0.06     0.25     5.54     1.27P    2.61R    0.18  
Huddersfield    16   20   +1      -0.00    50.96     3.87    56.67     8.14    -5.70     0.03     0.09     2.19     0.45P    4.99R    0.44  
Blackburn       16   20   +1      -2.40    34.07     0.23    63.40     8.34     4.65     0.17     0.72    10.24     2.95P    0.97R    0.07  
Bolton          16   19   -4      -3.76    25.76    -5.31    62.87     8.44     0.22     0.14     0.66     9.26     2.70P    1.32R    0.09  
Bournemouth     16   18  -10       1.43    61.38    -0.71    49.41     8.28   -26.26     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P   25.62R    4.74  
Charlton        16   17   -5      -4.10    23.59    -3.96    56.86     8.20    -6.44     0.01     0.08     2.16     0.56P    5.25R    0.49  
Millwall        16   17  -12      -1.59    39.65    -6.95    50.79     8.09   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P   19.52R    2.92  
Middlesbrough   16   16   +0      -5.82    15.23     0.21    54.75     8.44    -4.02     0.01     0.05     1.54     0.32P    8.75R    0.88  
Doncaster       16   16  -12       0.06    51.94    -2.82    45.65     8.01   -29.41     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   42.54R    9.53  
Birmingham      16   15   -5      -6.49    12.51    -4.30    57.28     8.42    -3.19     0.02     0.08     2.65     0.65P    5.12R    0.44  
Sheff_Wed       15   11   -7      -7.01     8.78    -3.10    46.90     8.35   -16.97     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.04P   34.34R    7.08  
Barnsley        16   11  -16      -5.24    16.64    -6.82    41.06     7.86   -33.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.32R   23.49  
Yeovil          16    9  -14      -4.52    19.61    -1.00    36.29     7.76   -36.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.00R   49.61  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Bradford 1 1 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   18   43  +22       7.18    89.02     5.38    97.45     7.90    46.46    68.93    89.97    99.85    93.41P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   18   42  +25      11.28    96.86    15.82    89.67     8.04    39.04    22.92    64.82    98.05    73.15P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         18   34  +10       6.86    86.95     6.32    76.91     8.08    16.72     1.34     8.14    69.90    21.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       18   34   +9       5.06    79.19     2.70    77.97     8.07    17.26     1.79    10.42    73.60    25.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    18   32   +9       0.48    52.30    -1.35    80.68     8.25    24.91     3.93    18.12    83.51    38.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford        18   28  +11       4.44    76.21    12.72    63.01     8.19     5.60     0.02     0.32    12.51     2.36P    2.85R    0.12  
Rotherham       18   28   +5       5.38    80.55     8.44    63.10     8.28    -0.55     0.03     0.24    12.08     2.03P    3.33R    0.15  
Swindon         18   27   +8      -3.81    26.40    -1.34    74.80     8.10    22.15     0.80     5.67    62.18    23.07P    0.07R    0.00  
Walsall         18   27   +4       1.80    61.84     3.16    68.39     8.04     8.49     0.11     1.04    28.69     6.89P    0.54R    0.01  
Port_Vale       18   26   -2       4.21    75.02     2.87    60.51     8.25    -8.81     0.01     0.11     7.18     1.19P    6.59R    0.33  
MK_Dons         17   22   +1      -5.20    19.33    -4.88    66.67     8.32     8.25     0.08     0.78    23.45     6.72P    1.20R    0.04  
Crawley_Town    18   22   -4      -0.35    48.55    -0.39    56.17     7.84   -10.40     0.00     0.03     2.16     0.36P   14.54R    1.14  
Coventry        18   21   +5       2.92    67.54    -0.07    63.45     8.27    11.01     0.03     0.29    14.51     3.61P    2.69R    0.11  
Oldham          17   21   -2       0.45    54.12     2.09    56.06     8.03    -8.99     0.00     0.01     2.28     0.34P   15.15R    1.14  
Colchester      18   21   -4       0.43    54.08     2.14    56.02     7.90    -9.20     0.00     0.02     2.03     0.33P   15.26R    1.27  
Gillingham      18   21   -5      -0.37    48.72     0.23    52.59     8.05   -15.60     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.16P   28.38R    3.07  
Carlisle        18   21  -11       0.75    56.20    -3.83    50.76     7.71   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.05P   37.64R    4.73  
Shrewsbury      18   19   -3      -2.95    31.71     0.92    54.14     7.79    -7.46     0.00     0.01     1.23     0.24P   20.35R    1.98  
Stevenage       18   17  -11      -3.33    29.38    -4.36    49.90     7.81   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P   40.98R    5.57  
Tranmere        18   17  -12      -4.64    22.40    -7.34    53.02     7.96   -15.62     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.15P   26.52R    2.84  
Sheff_Utd       18   16  -10      -9.72     5.03   -11.56    55.54     7.95    -8.11     0.00     0.01     1.87     0.44P   16.50R    1.30  
Bristol_City    18   15   -5     -10.60     4.64    -6.05    54.89     8.43    -3.02     0.00     0.01     2.20     0.55P   19.38R    2.04  
Crewe           18   13  -26      -3.02    30.98   -11.47    37.55     7.27   -49.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.00R   61.92  
Notts_County    18   11  -14     -11.26     2.57   -10.16    46.63     8.00   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   56.00R   12.23  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           18   33  +15       4.23    75.33     9.02    76.93     7.96    23.16    18.29    48.71    82.45    58.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         18   33  +11       2.82    67.66     3.09    79.45     7.90    22.62    27.37    60.77    89.06    69.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             18   32   +8       3.60    72.15     2.57    77.04     7.99    17.74    17.79    48.00    82.19    57.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             18   32   +3       5.54    81.24     0.46    72.96     8.17     6.70     7.95    27.68    64.22    35.70P    0.06R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       18   31   +8       5.01    79.05     6.04    70.82     8.12    10.10     5.36    20.63    55.28    28.34P    0.13R    0.03  
Scunthorpe           18   30   +3       1.33    58.23    -2.90    75.20     8.31    13.05    13.21    38.44    74.39    48.86P    0.04R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        18   30   +2       5.48    81.09     2.20    68.52     8.07     2.19     2.59    12.66    42.55    18.87P    0.33R    0.10  
Newport_County       18   28   +5       7.10    87.58    10.55    60.55     8.05    -3.54     0.34     2.39    13.41     4.21P    3.61R    1.28  
Dag_&_Red            18   27   +3       2.65    66.90     3.37    64.29     8.06     1.44     1.04     5.63    25.13     9.68P    1.25R    0.38  
AFC_Wimbledon        18   26   +2       4.18    75.85     6.24    61.12     7.97    -2.85     0.35     2.45    14.43     4.61P    3.11R    1.10  
Morecambe            18   26   -2       2.31    65.23    -0.60    62.71     7.98    -4.31     0.52     3.58    18.52     6.67P    2.10R    0.66  
Exeter               18   25   -1      -0.33    48.39    -1.93    65.29     8.06     1.94     1.27     6.84    28.96    12.29P    1.02R    0.30  
Hartlepool           18   24   +1      -3.21    30.46    -2.77    65.39     8.16     5.64     1.41     7.31    30.36    13.86P    0.98R    0.31  
Plymouth             18   23   -4       0.54    54.53    -1.50    57.05     7.57    -9.04     0.07     0.62     5.10     1.56P    7.63R    2.91  
Wycombe              17   22   +0      -1.28    41.98    -0.11    60.93     8.26    -1.14     0.41     2.77    15.16     5.64P    3.68R    1.33  
Cheltenham           18   22   -5      -2.85    32.48    -5.32    59.10     7.97    -6.73     0.15     1.39     9.53     3.38P    5.36R    2.10  
Mansfield            18   21   -4       0.66    55.54     2.48    54.20     8.10   -11.69     0.04     0.34     3.47     0.98P   16.26R    7.55  
Portsmouth           17   20   -5      -6.51    15.00    -9.76    65.60     8.64     3.78     1.67     8.44    32.26    15.80P    1.44R    0.50  
Accrington_Stanley   18   20   -5      -1.41    41.79    -0.50    52.93     7.75   -12.65     0.01     0.15     1.95     0.48P   19.89R    9.65  
Bury                 18   18   -3      -7.65    10.92    -4.51    57.46     8.20    -1.24     0.13     1.00     7.63     2.80P    8.10R    3.43  
York                 18   18   -4      -3.27    29.90     0.78    51.45     7.78   -10.97     0.01     0.09     1.40     0.35P   24.36R   12.12  
Bristol_Rovers       18   16   -7      -5.60    17.56    -2.90    50.69     7.84   -12.14     0.00     0.08     1.21     0.31P   27.89R   14.66  
Torquay              18   15  -11      -7.23    11.21    -7.49    48.98     7.82   -17.41     0.00     0.04     0.68     0.16P   36.63R   21.13  
Northampton          18   14  -10      -8.12     8.35    -6.54    49.02     7.82   -14.63     0.00     0.03     0.66     0.18P   36.11R   20.42  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 November 2013, Aldershot 2 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.23    96.94    14.34    89.08     7.25    37.02    44.55    95.95    57.27P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            21   41  +19       4.15    74.05     5.99    84.63     7.18    33.55    20.25    88.02    39.09P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.52    65.05    -0.56    84.10     7.30    29.37    18.84    85.78    37.85P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.41    70.74     1.10    82.04     7.46    25.17    11.93    77.96    29.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Nuneaton         21   36   +4       8.14    89.45     5.63    68.03     7.03     0.52     0.18    10.98     1.65P    0.07R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    21   34   +1       6.76    84.62     4.06    66.55     7.10    -2.69     0.11     8.23     1.11P    0.14R    0.00  
Barnet           21   33   +9      -3.19    31.27    -2.61    76.36     7.25    23.25     2.99    51.84    17.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        20   33   +3       7.06    86.01     5.66    65.52     7.72    -2.57     0.13     7.78     1.16P    0.43R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   21   32   +6       3.13    68.38     5.97    66.21     7.17     5.69     0.11     7.90     1.36P    0.14R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.69    71.94     3.83    68.63     7.35     6.52     0.26    14.02     2.54P    0.07R    0.00  
Halifax          21   31   +6       2.80    66.55     7.52    64.80     7.64     4.66     0.09     6.84     1.13P    0.45R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   30   +6      -2.21    36.53     0.49    68.20     7.30    11.91     0.22    13.64     2.88P    0.10R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       4.00    73.15     7.12    64.31     7.66     2.28     0.06     5.92     0.97P    0.67R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.73    14.81    -7.56    69.58     7.19    13.31     0.27    17.65     4.85P    0.05R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.48    34.87    -1.44    60.83     7.34    -1.49     0.00     2.02     0.34P    1.44R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.59    54.43     1.05    60.55     7.41    -3.63     0.01     1.92     0.27P    1.62R    0.00  
Hereford         21   25   -2      -6.29    17.18    -5.74    60.31     7.14    -0.32     0.01     1.62     0.33P    1.44R    0.00  
Southport        21   21  -16      -1.51    41.70    -5.30    49.24     6.92   -26.79     0.00     0.02     0.00    27.57R    0.23  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.56    23.59    -2.77    47.96     7.10   -21.64     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.78R    0.23  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.91    45.26    -1.61    48.93     7.10   -22.94     0.00     0.01     0.00    28.45R    0.37  
Aldershot        21   19   -1      -4.46    25.16    -8.28    60.47     7.29    10.14     0.01     1.88     0.57P    1.68R    0.01  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.26    43.76     0.19    46.41     7.11   -23.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.89R    0.65  
Dartford         22   18  -22      -5.85    18.02   -11.31    43.49     6.65   -34.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.14R    1.32  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.89     0.15   -15.77    23.02     6.35   -63.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.88R   97.18  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10