Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 24 November 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 24 November 2013, Cardiff 2 2 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          12   28  +14       4.33    82.76     2.62    77.24     7.22    36.04    31.30    54.44    72.33    85.77    97.78     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   24  +11       2.21    67.78     2.55    70.62     7.28    27.94     7.94    20.38    36.33    55.91    88.62     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea          12   24  +11       1.20    59.80     0.89    73.90     7.18    33.31    16.06    35.40    55.07    73.71    94.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         12   22  +22      -3.73    19.36     6.44    76.97     6.84    55.05    31.79    56.17    74.57    87.10    98.19     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      12   22   +8       4.96    86.38     7.58    55.79     7.43     4.93     0.09     0.41     1.37     3.59    19.45     0.20R    0.01  
Man_Utd          12   21   +5      -1.77    34.45    -5.28    72.80     7.09    31.57    11.87    29.25    49.47    69.17    93.15     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   21   +4       1.66    63.51    -0.05    61.67     7.36    11.42     0.61     2.41     6.13    13.16    47.69     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        12   20   +0       4.71    84.50     2.50    52.65     7.38    -5.99     0.01     0.10     0.48     1.44     9.58     0.80R    0.03  
Tottenham        12   20   -3       1.23    60.37    -6.20    59.70     7.43     2.91     0.32     1.33     3.75     8.57    35.15     0.07R    0.00  
Swansea          12   15   +1      -0.69    45.19     2.11    48.46     7.19    -3.30     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.32     3.51     2.70R    0.14  
West_Brom        11   14   +0       0.25    53.16     2.46    51.03     7.69    -0.67     0.02     0.09     0.33     0.97     7.48     1.81R    0.11  
Aston_Villa      11   14   -1       1.51    64.58     3.35    47.10     7.41    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.20     2.46     4.64R    0.43  
Hull             12   14   -6       2.20    70.58     1.65    36.58     6.73   -25.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    41.79R    7.44  
Stoke            12   13   -2      -1.20    40.22     1.44    44.11     7.09    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.96     8.68R    0.79  
Cardiff          12   13   -6       0.91    59.49     0.70    40.81     7.14   -19.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.31    20.18R    2.98  
Norwich          12   11  -13      -1.05    41.91    -4.92    38.01     7.03   -28.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    34.32R    6.80  
West_Ham         12   10   -5      -4.16    18.68    -1.74    40.61     7.09   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25    20.02R    2.97  
Fulham           12   10  -10      -3.81    20.33    -5.43    40.65     7.12   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29    20.89R    2.84  
Crystal_Palace   12    7  -14      -2.01    32.67    -1.35    26.87     6.44   -41.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.86R   61.02  
Sunderland       12    7  -16      -5.02    12.66    -9.32    34.31     6.85   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    55.01R   14.46  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 November 2013, Birmingham 1 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         16   35  +17       8.57    93.56    10.16    83.63     8.41    28.37    25.95    46.77    87.02    56.64P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       16   35  +10       7.53    90.88     1.67    84.15     8.30    22.20    26.93    47.91    87.46    58.24P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             16   35  +10       8.36    93.35     3.18    84.39     8.36    22.08    27.64    48.98    87.84    59.52P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       16   28   +5       3.75    74.01     1.51    72.66     8.26    10.49     2.68     7.71    42.15    15.45P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   16   27   +7       3.11    71.02     3.95    71.17     8.39    11.67     1.99     5.87    35.94    12.68P    0.07R    0.00  
Leeds_United    16   26   +5       3.57    73.59     4.21    68.03     8.48     6.34     0.88     2.99    23.55     6.95P    0.25R    0.01  
Derby           16   25   +7       1.85    62.55     5.18    70.01     8.48    12.90     1.50     4.81    31.65    10.59P    0.13R    0.01  
Reading         16   25   +5      -1.27    41.51    -1.54    73.94     8.60    17.06     4.27    11.20    49.63    21.80P    0.04R    0.00  
Brighton        16   24   +5      -0.88    44.14     0.59    71.84     8.33    15.04     2.18     6.59    39.64    15.68P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         16   23   +6      -2.46    33.62     0.50    71.73     8.47    17.89     2.61     7.16    40.25    15.87P    0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           15   22   +4      -2.86    30.49    -2.38    71.88     8.86    15.28     2.91     7.98    40.78    17.69P    0.09R    0.00  
Ipswich         16   20   +2      -0.59    46.33     4.03    59.90     8.41     0.09     0.04     0.24     5.16     1.18P    2.87R    0.23  
Huddersfield    16   20   +1      -0.08    50.21     3.76    56.79     8.15    -5.52     0.02     0.10     2.33     0.49P    5.22R    0.48  
Blackburn       16   20   +1      -2.33    34.35     0.32    63.49     8.32     4.77     0.16     0.76    10.56     2.99P    1.01R    0.06  
Bolton          16   19   -4      -3.77    25.60    -5.37    62.94     8.44     0.34     0.16     0.68     9.28     2.64P    1.43R    0.11  
Bournemouth     16   18  -10       1.47    61.81    -0.67    49.31     8.25   -26.40     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.04P   26.68R    5.07  
Millwall        16   17  -12      -1.61    39.71    -6.96    50.69     8.09   -23.56     0.01     0.01     0.35     0.07P   20.34R    3.10  
Middlesbrough   16   16   +0      -5.94    14.63     0.05    55.04     8.41    -3.59     0.03     0.06     1.68     0.37P    8.46R    0.93  
Doncaster       15   16  -10       0.48    55.04    -2.26    47.51     8.30   -26.61     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   34.67R    7.15  
Birmingham      16   15   -5      -6.45    12.81    -4.23    57.19     8.41    -3.30     0.02     0.12     2.68     0.70P    5.30R    0.50  
Charlton        15   14   -7      -4.92    18.40    -4.80    55.03     8.42    -8.77     0.01     0.04     1.47     0.35P    8.96R    1.07  
Sheff_Wed       15   11   -7      -6.94     9.33    -3.01    46.93     8.35   -17.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   35.09R    7.25  
Barnsley        16   11  -16      -5.23    16.48    -6.81    41.02     7.80   -34.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    66.26R   24.26  
Yeovil          16    9  -14      -4.55    19.59    -1.07    36.47     7.75   -35.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.98R   49.76  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 November 2013, Bristol_City 0 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   17   41  +25      11.83    97.98    16.06    90.32     8.33    39.43    27.20    65.45    97.96    73.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   17   40  +20       6.52    87.16     4.82    96.29     8.05    45.17    62.29    86.49    99.63    91.08P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    17   32  +10       1.56    59.52    -0.75    82.52     8.49    26.54     6.72    24.57    86.55    43.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       17   31   +8       3.64    73.01     2.03    75.88     8.20    15.55     1.14     6.73    62.95    20.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Preston         17   31   +8       5.81    83.47     5.22    74.85     8.22    14.04     0.86     5.20    58.17    16.00P    0.06R    0.01  
Bradford        17   27  +11       4.97    79.39    13.01    63.65     8.45     5.99     0.03     0.48    13.90     2.68P    2.69R    0.12  
Swindon         17   26   +8      -3.18    29.39    -0.97    75.61     8.33    22.92     1.27     6.90    63.29    23.79P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall         17   26   +4       2.16    64.48     3.17    68.47     8.19     8.09     0.10     1.05    27.97     6.45P    0.53R    0.01  
Port_Vale       17   26   +0       4.64    77.86     3.52    62.97     8.52    -5.04     0.01     0.24    11.60     2.07P    3.75R    0.16  
Rotherham       17   25   +2       4.52    77.91     6.59    58.91     8.29    -7.82     0.01     0.05     4.77     0.74P    8.61R    0.54  
MK_Dons         16   22   +3      -4.12    23.74    -3.39    69.40     8.61    12.33     0.26     1.75    34.10    10.04P    0.58R    0.02  
Coventry        17   21   +8       3.75    72.83     2.00    67.01     8.51    17.71     0.11     0.98    25.45     7.17P    1.06R    0.06  
Crawley_Town    17   21   -4      -0.28    48.90    -0.80    56.08     8.11   -11.30     0.00     0.02     2.18     0.36P   14.69R    1.53  
Shrewsbury      17   19   -2      -1.74    39.13     1.66    56.16     8.02    -5.51     0.00     0.02     2.15     0.38P   13.50R    1.29  
Oldham          16   18   -3      -1.04    43.48     1.35    53.58     8.22   -11.24     0.00     0.01     1.30     0.22P   22.76R    2.61  
Gillingham      17   18   -6      -1.58    40.79    -0.21    50.60     8.19   -16.99     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.09P   36.08R    5.66  
Colchester      17   18   -6      -0.96    44.55     0.55    53.04     8.05   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.13P   24.96R    3.16  
Carlisle        17   18  -12      -0.57    47.29    -4.33    49.46     7.93   -25.80     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   42.44R    7.91  
Tranmere        17   17  -10      -4.19    24.05    -6.76    54.09     8.13   -14.16     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.21P   21.65R    2.44  
Stevenage       17   17  -10      -2.22    35.86    -3.85    51.43     8.03   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.08P   32.10R    4.44  
Sheff_Utd       17   15  -10      -9.25     5.66   -11.43    55.84     8.16    -8.25     0.00     0.01     2.06     0.42P   15.05R    1.48  
Bristol_City    17   14   -5     -10.20     4.69    -6.04    55.06     8.68    -3.36     0.00     0.02     2.42     0.56P   18.32R    2.24  
Crewe           17   13  -25      -2.22    35.91   -11.39    38.85     7.53   -48.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    87.79R   53.76  
Notts_County    17   10  -14     -10.87     2.57   -10.05    46.78     8.17   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   53.32R   12.56  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 November 2013, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           17   32  +15       4.92    79.27     9.47    78.40     8.22    24.79    21.51    53.24    84.65    61.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         17   32  +11       3.56    72.46     3.50    80.57     8.10    23.80    29.56    62.96    89.76    70.85P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             17   32   +7       5.95    83.70     2.95    76.18     8.46    13.54    14.06    40.23    75.40    48.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       17   31  +10       5.87    83.73     7.26    73.15     8.34    13.47     7.98    27.86    63.95    36.04P    0.04R    0.01  
Southend             17   29   +7       2.11    63.95     1.68    74.79     8.21    15.86    10.43    34.12    71.62    44.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County       17   27   +5       7.06    88.15    10.09    59.99     8.33    -5.28     0.33     2.08    11.72     3.72P    4.18R    1.35  
Burton_Albion        17   27   +1       4.25    76.15     1.88    67.26     8.21     1.67     1.69     9.11    34.96    14.65P    0.53R    0.15  
Scunthorpe           17   27   -1       0.87    55.73    -5.15    71.38     8.57     5.89     5.35    20.90    54.26    29.88P    0.16R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red            17   26   +3       2.91    69.29     3.28    64.47     8.21     1.05     0.90     5.28    24.46     9.15P    1.26R    0.37  
AFC_Wimbledon        17   25   +2       4.63    78.86     6.43    61.65     8.08    -2.71     0.34     2.50    14.85     4.72P    2.54R    0.86  
Morecambe            17   25   -2       2.91    69.35    -0.10    63.60     8.28    -3.70     0.66     4.11    20.98     7.58P    1.78R    0.56  
Hartlepool           17   24   +2      -2.22    35.85    -2.28    67.16     8.48     7.19     2.06    10.41    36.53    17.81P    0.59R    0.18  
Exeter               17   24   -1       0.09    50.89    -1.85    65.46     8.28     1.63     1.08     6.54    28.02    11.74P    1.04R    0.33  
Plymouth             17   22   -4       0.64    55.19    -1.81    57.28     7.80    -9.29     0.08     0.64     5.30     1.59P    7.12R    2.65  
Wycombe              16   21   +0      -0.94    44.20    -0.08    61.63     8.44    -0.72     0.44     3.01    16.23     6.02P    3.00R    1.02  
Mansfield            17   21   -3       1.56    61.43     2.86    55.35     8.33   -11.27     0.07     0.56     4.38     1.27P   12.82R    5.55  
Cheltenham           17   21   -5      -2.32    35.48    -5.01    59.86     8.25    -6.39     0.22     1.68    10.92     3.99P    4.59R    1.69  
Portsmouth           16   20   -4      -5.59    18.21    -9.46    68.23     8.92     6.75     3.12    13.81    41.71    22.71P    0.66R    0.22  
York                 17   17   -4      -3.01    31.13     0.81    51.22     8.03   -12.18     0.01     0.12     1.42     0.38P   24.51R   12.41  
Accrington_Stanley   17   17   -7      -2.80    32.13    -2.02    50.79     7.94   -15.58     0.00     0.06     1.04     0.24P   26.95R   14.14  
Bury                 17   15   -4      -9.14     6.32    -5.22    55.86     8.53    -2.22     0.08     0.61     5.40     1.94P   11.27R    5.27  
Bristol_Rovers       17   15   -7      -5.55    16.90    -3.19    50.54     8.07   -13.10     0.01     0.09     1.14     0.31P   27.72R   14.43  
Torquay              17   14  -11      -6.73    12.30    -7.18    49.61     8.03   -17.09     0.01     0.06     0.79     0.24P   32.13R   17.59  
Northampton          17   13  -10      -8.06     7.91    -6.85    48.52     8.03   -16.11     0.00     0.03     0.53     0.14P   37.06R   21.18  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 November 2013, Aldershot 5 1 Southport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.26    96.79    14.41    88.97     7.31    36.93    45.93    95.89    58.28P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.59    65.62    -0.39    83.92     7.29    29.02    19.17    85.79    38.42P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            20   38  +16       3.79    72.62     5.07    83.77     7.28    31.87    18.35    85.80    37.14P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.38    70.76     1.04    82.03     7.43    25.24    12.61    78.89    30.81P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    20   34   +4       7.15    86.47     5.40    68.34     7.34     1.11     0.29    13.59     2.10P    0.09R    0.00  
Salisbury        19   33   +6       7.59    88.51     7.15    68.35     8.00     2.99     0.42    15.85     2.77P    0.21R    0.00  
Nuneaton         20   33   +1       7.43    88.06     4.12    65.98     7.17    -3.13     0.11     7.66     1.01P    0.23R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   20   32   +7       3.92    72.96     6.06    67.03     7.31     5.83     0.19    10.67     1.87P    0.17R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.68    72.06     3.82    68.66     7.36     6.57     0.30    14.96     2.75P    0.08R    0.00  
Halifax          20   31   +7       3.81    72.41     7.90    65.57     7.79     4.65     0.17     9.13     1.75P    0.45R    0.00  
Barnet           20   30   +7      -3.95    26.85    -3.32    74.37     7.43    20.65     1.94    42.31    13.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.90    72.48     6.98    64.23     7.67     2.11     0.08     6.27     1.10P    0.75R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.59    15.38    -7.40    69.40     7.18    13.03     0.31    18.03     5.09P    0.05R    0.00  
Forest_Green     20   27   +3      -3.08    31.50    -1.24    65.20     7.54     6.84     0.08     7.93     1.76P    0.46R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.50    34.86    -1.51    60.98     7.39    -1.27     0.01     2.37     0.43P    1.61R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.40    53.25     0.76    60.58     7.36    -3.59     0.02     2.00     0.35P    1.87R    0.00  
Hereford         20   22   -3      -7.16    13.18    -5.59    59.01     7.32    -0.78     0.00     1.28     0.30P    2.86R    0.01  
Southport        20   21  -13      -1.47    41.81    -4.66    50.29     7.11   -24.46     0.00     0.05     0.01P   25.05R    0.19  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.59    23.46    -2.84    47.98     7.08   -21.51     0.00     0.01     0.00P   34.93R    0.23  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -0.99    44.71    -1.78    49.10     7.04   -22.61     0.00     0.01     0.00P   29.88R    0.28  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.36    42.94     0.04    46.50     7.12   -23.49     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.98R    0.59  
Dartford         21   18  -20      -5.12    20.77   -10.32    45.01     6.91   -32.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.42R    0.90  
Aldershot        20   16   -2      -5.26    20.70    -8.06    59.37     7.52    10.00     0.01     1.49     0.48P    3.00R    0.02  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.79     0.13   -15.64    22.87     6.33   -63.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   97.77  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10