Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 23 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 November 2013, Arsenal 2 0 Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          12   28  +14       4.45    83.23     2.91    77.35     7.24    36.07    33.79    56.24    73.20    86.00    97.65     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   24  +11       2.19    67.49     2.62    70.69     7.33    28.04     8.91    21.92    38.21    56.54    87.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   24  +11       1.18    59.45     0.94    73.83     7.18    33.03    17.28    36.51    55.75    73.29    94.34     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      12   22   +8       5.04    86.58     7.71    55.72     7.38     4.97     0.10     0.46     1.40     3.49    17.60     0.19R    0.00  
Everton          12   21   +4       1.67    63.51    -0.10    61.64     7.34    11.36     0.68     2.44     6.25    13.10    44.59     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          11   20   +5      -0.88    41.43    -4.46    73.98     7.34    32.59    17.79    37.67    56.90    73.64    93.80     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        11   20   +3       1.16    59.91    -2.50    62.19     7.57    10.50     0.94     3.35     7.77    15.13    47.45     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        12   20   +0       4.75    84.72     2.44    52.46     7.35    -6.22     0.02     0.15     0.46     1.30     8.34     0.85R    0.06  
Man_City         11   19  +16      -3.79    18.49     3.37    74.13     7.25    45.80    20.48    41.12    59.52    75.87    94.51     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          12   15   +1      -0.70    44.96     2.11    48.52     7.21    -3.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.30     3.07     2.72R    0.15  
West_Brom        11   14   +0       0.26    53.38     2.37    51.18     7.73    -0.21     0.02     0.11     0.39     1.05     7.46     1.66R    0.10  
Aston_Villa      11   14   -1       1.54    65.05     3.27    47.00     7.43    -7.77     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.20     2.09     4.86R    0.46  
Hull             12   14   -6       2.18    70.43     1.43    36.56     6.64   -25.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    40.47R    7.39  
Stoke            12   13   -2      -1.22    40.21     1.34    44.12     7.08    -7.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.80     8.37R    0.79  
Cardiff          11   12   -6       0.93    59.98    -0.03    39.84     7.25   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.21    24.35R    4.21  
Norwich          12   11  -13      -0.93    43.24    -5.00    37.88     7.03   -28.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    34.39R    7.20  
West_Ham         12   10   -5      -4.15    18.62    -1.77    40.42     7.12   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.24    20.07R    3.08  
Fulham           12   10  -10      -3.83    20.53    -5.56    40.60     7.17   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25    20.54R    2.95  
Crystal_Palace   12    7  -14      -2.03    32.80    -1.52    27.12     6.50   -40.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.58R   59.22  
Sunderland       12    7  -16      -5.16    11.93    -9.58    34.33     6.90   -29.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    53.90R   14.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 November 2013, Birmingham 1 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         16   35  +17       8.53    93.44    10.09    83.75     8.43    28.61    26.19    47.29    87.17    57.31P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       16   35  +10       7.62    91.11     1.76    84.07     8.33    22.11    26.53    47.26    87.44    57.48P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             16   35  +10       8.34    93.15     3.13    84.59     8.38    22.32    28.27    49.48    88.38    60.18P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       16   28   +5       3.66    73.69     1.38    72.83     8.26    10.72     2.73     8.06    42.94    15.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   16   27   +7       3.12    70.96     3.98    71.18     8.37    11.72     1.96     5.80    36.13    12.59P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds_United    16   26   +5       3.51    73.09     4.14    68.17     8.44     6.52     0.89     3.01    23.94     7.21P    0.23R    0.02  
Derby           16   25   +7       1.91    63.11     5.29    69.88     8.40    12.75     1.33     4.47    31.20    10.34P    0.13R    0.01  
Reading         16   25   +5      -1.18    42.02    -1.45    73.77     8.77    16.85     4.28    11.14    48.88    21.69P    0.04R    0.00  
Brighton        16   24   +5      -0.88    43.99     0.58    71.83     8.23    15.06     2.06     6.46    39.69    15.45P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         16   23   +6      -2.40    33.84     0.64    71.47     8.42    17.42     2.29     6.70    38.95    14.96P    0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           15   22   +4      -2.89    30.06    -2.40    71.86     8.93    15.25     2.96     8.24    40.85    17.92P    0.10R    0.01  
Ipswich         16   20   +2      -0.65    46.31     3.89    60.17     8.41     0.48     0.06     0.29     5.64     1.32P    2.55R    0.20  
Huddersfield    16   20   +1      -0.08    50.36     3.75    56.82     8.21    -5.51     0.02     0.10     2.39     0.49P    5.29R    0.50  
Blackburn       16   20   +1      -2.35    34.34     0.29    63.37     8.36     4.58     0.20     0.78    10.39     2.92P    0.97R    0.07  
Bolton          16   19   -4      -3.77    25.71    -5.33    62.87     8.42     0.22     0.20     0.71     9.41     2.73P    1.25R    0.06  
Bournemouth     16   18  -10       1.47    61.70    -0.64    49.28     8.26   -26.46     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.04P   26.85R    5.15  
Millwall        16   17  -12      -1.58    40.14    -6.96    50.73     8.07   -23.45     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.08P   20.46R    2.99  
Middlesbrough   16   16   +0      -5.86    14.89     0.16    54.92     8.38    -3.79     0.01     0.06     1.63     0.38P    8.63R    1.04  
Doncaster       15   16  -10       0.50    55.19    -2.23    47.51     8.29   -26.61     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   34.53R    7.12  
Birmingham      16   15   -5      -6.41    12.85    -4.17    57.03     8.36    -3.51     0.02     0.09     2.48     0.57P    5.75R    0.61  
Charlton        15   14   -7      -5.02    17.90    -4.95    55.15     8.38    -8.61     0.01     0.05     1.52     0.41P    8.56R    0.96  
Sheff_Wed       15   11   -7      -6.95     9.21    -3.01    46.86     8.34   -17.09     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   35.52R    7.52  
Barnsley        16   11  -16      -5.16    17.21    -6.68    41.03     7.86   -34.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    66.34R   24.83  
Yeovil          16    9  -14      -4.66    18.94    -1.24    36.62     7.77   -35.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.59R   48.91  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 November 2013, Bristol_City 0 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   17   41  +25      11.84    98.05    16.12    90.31     8.28    39.42    27.12    66.10    97.88    74.10P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   17   40  +20       6.49    86.94     4.74    96.26     8.12    45.14    62.15    86.27    99.58    90.88P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    17   32  +10       1.64    60.01    -0.60    82.37     8.47    26.32     6.53    23.91    86.30    42.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       17   31   +8       3.68    73.21     2.10    75.83     8.26    15.52     1.30     6.80    62.75    20.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Preston         17   31   +8       5.81    83.52     5.22    74.86     8.31    14.09     0.98     5.37    58.03    16.28P    0.06R    0.00  
Bradford        17   27  +11       4.88    79.19    12.86    63.64     8.44     5.95     0.04     0.46    13.79     2.67P    2.43R    0.11  
Swindon         17   26   +8      -3.23    29.23    -1.04    75.69     8.29    23.01     1.27     6.87    64.07    24.10P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall         17   26   +4       2.17    64.82     3.22    68.37     8.22     7.93     0.15     1.03    27.99     6.66P    0.51R    0.02  
Port_Vale       17   26   +0       4.68    77.85     3.47    63.02     8.57    -4.97     0.04     0.33    12.03     2.24P    3.70R    0.19  
Rotherham       17   25   +2       4.43    77.28     6.41    59.03     8.39    -7.54     0.01     0.08     5.09     0.78P    8.67R    0.60  
MK_Dons         16   22   +3      -4.08    23.97    -3.31    69.27     8.61    12.08     0.29     1.76    33.38     9.72P    0.57R    0.02  
Coventry        17   21   +8       3.76    72.75     2.04    66.95     8.51    17.56     0.12     0.91    25.18     7.14P    1.15R    0.04  
Crawley_Town    17   21   -4      -0.25    49.02    -0.77    56.00     8.10   -11.37     0.00     0.03     2.28     0.42P   14.91R    1.49  
Shrewsbury      17   19   -2      -1.72    39.52     1.71    56.07     8.02    -5.66     0.00     0.01     2.24     0.34P   13.98R    1.30  
Oldham          16   18   -3      -1.08    43.35     1.29    53.64     8.23   -11.12     0.00     0.01     1.44     0.22P   22.77R    2.62  
Gillingham      17   18   -6      -1.61    40.39    -0.23    50.59     8.16   -16.95     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.08P   36.16R    5.74  
Colchester      17   18   -6      -0.86    45.40     0.68    52.87     8.01   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.11P   25.47R    3.45  
Carlisle        17   18  -12      -0.43    48.38    -4.14    49.35     7.88   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P   42.98R    7.90  
Tranmere        17   17  -10      -4.25    24.10    -6.80    54.25     8.11   -13.89     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.24P   21.06R    2.25  
Stevenage       17   17  -10      -2.29    35.32    -3.95    51.51     7.95   -17.59     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.09P   31.87R    4.37  
Sheff_Utd       17   15  -10      -9.27     5.63   -11.46    55.97     8.15    -8.09     0.00     0.03     2.08     0.49P   14.80R    1.37  
Bristol_City    17   14   -5     -10.17     4.69    -5.99    54.94     8.64    -3.53     0.00     0.02     2.34     0.55P   18.53R    2.40  
Crewe           17   13  -25      -2.17    36.23   -11.34    38.94     7.50   -48.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.67R   53.59  
Notts_County    17   10  -14     -10.96     2.44   -10.24    47.00     8.19   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   52.63R   12.53  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 November 2013, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           17   32  +15       4.80    78.68     9.34    78.52     8.17    25.01    21.22    53.49    85.08    61.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         17   32  +11       3.53    72.33     3.50    80.62     8.11    23.88    29.26    62.92    89.91    71.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             17   32   +7       5.94    83.33     2.91    76.14     8.48    13.46    13.93    39.88    74.95    48.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       17   31  +10       5.81    83.33     7.21    73.10     8.31    13.42     7.92    27.20    63.86    35.38P    0.05R    0.02  
Southend             17   29   +7       1.95    63.19     1.48    75.05     8.24    16.18    10.96    35.65    72.39    46.19P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County       17   27   +5       6.94    87.93     9.95    60.25     8.28    -4.94     0.30     2.11    12.11     3.84P    3.77R    1.32  
Burton_Albion        17   27   +1       4.26    75.92     1.93    67.28     8.26     1.66     1.77     9.17    35.06    14.50P    0.57R    0.18  
Scunthorpe           17   27   -1       0.83    55.43    -5.21    71.52     8.59     6.03     5.67    21.28    55.11    30.71P    0.21R    0.07  
Dag_&_Red            17   26   +3       3.05    69.69     3.46    64.30     8.24     0.81     0.91     5.23    23.77     9.04P    1.24R    0.41  
AFC_Wimbledon        17   25   +2       4.60    78.88     6.44    61.61     8.12    -2.80     0.35     2.50    14.72     4.69P    2.61R    0.88  
Morecambe            17   25   -2       2.95    69.41    -0.07    63.50     8.25    -3.85     0.62     3.88    20.36     7.25P    1.84R    0.56  
Hartlepool           17   24   +2      -2.32    35.23    -2.43    67.26     8.44     7.31     2.07    10.40    36.79    17.90P    0.57R    0.17  
Exeter               17   24   -1       0.04    50.75    -1.93    65.50     8.29     1.72     1.14     6.56    28.13    11.66P    0.99R    0.30  
Plymouth             17   22   -4       0.72    55.76    -1.68    57.17     7.82    -9.46     0.07     0.60     5.18     1.48P    7.38R    2.78  
Wycombe              16   21   +0      -0.91    44.14    -0.08    61.61     8.55    -0.74     0.53     3.21    16.37     6.28P    3.17R    1.14  
Mansfield            17   21   -3       1.51    61.00     2.79    55.50     8.34   -11.02     0.07     0.55     4.58     1.27P   12.43R    5.49  
Cheltenham           17   21   -5      -2.25    35.72    -4.91    59.68     8.21    -6.60     0.22     1.63    10.28     3.57P    4.73R    1.78  
Portsmouth           16   20   -4      -5.54    18.14    -9.37    68.01     8.87     6.49     2.85    12.77    40.76    21.53P    0.72R    0.26  
York                 17   17   -4      -2.94    31.39     0.89    51.22     8.09   -12.20     0.01     0.11     1.53     0.40P   24.62R   12.31  
Accrington_Stanley   17   17   -7      -2.66    32.97    -1.86    50.52     7.91   -15.98     0.01     0.06     1.00     0.25P   27.89R   14.59  
Bury                 17   15   -4      -9.07     6.35    -5.15    55.86     8.53    -2.22     0.09     0.65     5.60     1.99P   11.32R    5.04  
Bristol_Rovers       17   15   -7      -5.49    17.48    -3.13    50.55     8.08   -13.11     0.01     0.06     1.10     0.26P   27.37R   14.33  
Torquay              17   14  -11      -6.76    12.24    -7.23    49.66     8.06   -16.99     0.01     0.06     0.76     0.22P   31.84R   17.56  
Northampton          17   13  -10      -8.08     8.00    -6.86    48.53     8.05   -16.06     0.00     0.04     0.60     0.16P   36.62R   20.82  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 November 2013, Aldershot 5 1 Southport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    20   45  +24      11.26    96.69    14.41    89.02     7.30    36.98    45.99    95.88    58.44P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    20   39  +14       2.57    65.33    -0.41    83.93     7.25    28.97    19.16    85.93    38.45P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            20   38  +16       3.78    72.37     5.08    83.72     7.32    31.77    17.98    85.34    36.51P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          19   36  +11       3.34    70.37     0.99    82.14     7.41    25.33    12.77    79.28    31.37P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    20   34   +4       7.13    86.31     5.44    68.35     7.35     1.08     0.27    13.78     2.04P    0.12R    0.00  
Salisbury        19   33   +6       7.71    88.68     7.30    68.19     8.00     2.74     0.44    15.16     2.58P    0.24R    0.00  
Nuneaton         20   33   +1       7.49    88.33     4.17    65.91     7.21    -3.26     0.09     7.47     1.07P    0.25R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   20   32   +7       3.96    73.17     6.13    67.00     7.30     5.83     0.18    10.46     1.79P    0.15R    0.00  
Gateshead        20   32   +5       3.80    72.58     4.00    68.57     7.36     6.49     0.26    14.78     2.77P    0.09R    0.00  
Halifax          20   31   +7       3.69    71.58     7.69    65.73     7.85     4.93     0.18     9.54     1.73P    0.47R    0.00  
Barnet           20   30   +7      -4.04    26.40    -3.43    74.49     7.51    20.81     2.13    42.85    14.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          20   29   +3       3.99    73.38     7.16    64.15     7.69     2.02     0.07     6.23     1.02P    0.75R    0.00  
Wrexham          21   28   +2      -6.69    15.03    -7.56    69.46     7.19    13.15     0.33    18.09     5.04P    0.07R    0.00  
Forest_Green     20   27   +3      -3.09    31.21    -1.26    65.17     7.52     6.74     0.09     7.62     1.58P    0.42R    0.00  
Macclesfield     20   26   +0      -2.66    34.06    -1.74    61.03     7.42    -1.15     0.02     2.58     0.47P    1.54R    0.01  
Lincoln_City     20   26   -2       0.45    53.46     0.81    60.60     7.37    -3.54     0.00     2.05     0.37P    1.89R    0.00  
Hereford         20   22   -3      -7.10    13.36    -5.53    58.93     7.33    -0.92     0.01     1.29     0.30P    3.02R    0.01  
Southport        20   21  -13      -1.33    42.61    -4.44    50.18     7.09   -24.67     0.00     0.03     0.01P   25.41R    0.22  
Woking           20   20   -8      -4.61    23.34    -2.86    48.06     7.15   -21.43     0.00     0.03     0.00P   34.68R    0.26  
Tamworth         20   20  -12      -1.08    44.02    -1.93    49.21     7.09   -22.51     0.00     0.02     0.00P   29.13R    0.30  
Chester          21   19  -13      -1.29    43.53     0.21    46.32     7.09   -23.75     0.00     0.01     0.00    45.11R    0.61  
Dartford         21   18  -20      -5.15    20.55   -10.37    45.03     6.87   -32.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.86R    0.98  
Aldershot        20   16   -2      -5.25    20.95    -8.04    59.37     7.53     9.90     0.00     1.59     0.45P    2.88R    0.02  
Hyde_United      21    3  -37     -14.85     0.11   -15.82    22.96     6.38   -63.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   97.59  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10