Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 22 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 November 2013, Man_Utd 1 0 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          11   25  +12       3.76    80.02     2.30    76.14     7.47    34.80    31.13    53.28    70.37    83.15    96.31     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        11   23  +11       2.62    71.86     2.77    70.63     7.55    27.20    10.69    24.79    41.11    58.77    86.88     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      11   22  +10       5.49    89.48     8.15    56.71     7.62     6.29     0.24     1.03     2.60     5.67    22.41     0.20R    0.01  
Chelsea          11   21   +8       0.51    53.82    -0.55    71.58     7.48    28.99    13.02    28.68    46.28    63.81    89.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          11   20   +5      -0.97    40.37    -4.68    73.80     7.38    32.32    19.52    40.27    58.94    75.14    93.66     0.00     0.00  
Everton          11   20   +4       2.13    68.14     0.04    61.95     7.52    11.35     1.10     3.54     8.40    16.26    47.32     0.03R    0.00  
Tottenham        11   20   +3       1.14    59.94    -2.52    62.03     7.57    10.38     1.15     3.87     8.57    16.49    47.38     0.03R    0.00  
Man_City         11   19  +16      -3.74    18.71     3.49    74.10     7.22    45.91    23.06    44.22    62.71    77.70    94.82     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        11   17   -1       3.78    80.64     2.36    51.50     7.62    -6.10     0.05     0.16     0.46     1.22     7.43     1.74R    0.08  
West_Brom        11   14   +0       0.19    52.73     2.23    51.02     7.69    -0.47     0.03     0.10     0.38     1.15     7.30     2.13R    0.07  
Aston_Villa      11   14   -1       1.57    64.97     3.28    46.94     7.44    -7.83     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.25     2.34     5.94R    0.37  
Hull             11   14   -5       3.67    82.25     2.51    39.08     7.05   -22.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    31.25R    3.68  
Swansea          11   12   +0      -2.27    31.32     1.18    46.20     7.41    -4.90     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.20     1.96     6.82R    0.38  
Cardiff          11   12   -6       0.93    60.13    -0.08    40.06     7.26   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.29    26.52R    3.33  
Norwich          11   11  -12      -0.19    49.72    -5.00    38.94     7.20   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14    32.96R    4.67  
West_Ham         11   10   -2      -3.60    21.23     0.02    42.38     7.35    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.59    15.81R    1.61  
Stoke            11   10   -4      -2.23    30.21     0.19    42.26     7.25   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.55    16.08R    1.36  
Fulham           11   10   -9      -2.61    28.11    -4.82    42.59     7.45   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.61    16.89R    1.48  
Sunderland       11    7  -14      -4.34    15.72    -8.38    35.82     7.07   -27.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    49.63R    8.49  
Crystal_Palace   11    4  -15      -3.84    15.56    -2.48    24.48     6.61   -43.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.97R   74.46  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 22 November 2013, Doncaster 2 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         15   34  +17       8.67    94.68     9.73    84.18     8.59    28.72    29.39    49.39    87.32    58.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       15   32   +9       6.29    87.68     1.21    82.22     8.50    20.76    20.36    38.71    82.02    49.80P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             15   32   +9       7.14    90.45     2.69    83.38     8.67    22.02    24.80    44.44    84.69    55.47P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       15   27   +5       4.04    76.39     1.36    73.02     8.51    10.44     3.39     9.04    43.65    16.68P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   15   26   +7       3.49    73.69     3.96    71.62     8.59    11.78     2.48     7.07    38.24    13.93P    0.09R    0.00  
Reading         15   24   +5      -0.92    43.31    -1.59    74.20     8.94    16.96     5.11    12.90    50.36    23.46P    0.06R    0.00  
Watford         15   23   +7      -1.01    42.97     1.59    74.09     8.79    20.53     4.97    12.41    51.12    22.76P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds_United    15   23   +4       2.31    66.65     3.79    66.49     8.69     5.38     0.67     2.27    19.01     5.44P    0.51R    0.01  
Derby           15   22   +6       0.61    54.54     4.83    68.20     8.73    11.60     1.13     3.46    25.40     8.12P    0.33R    0.01  
Wigan           14   22   +5      -1.64    37.91    -1.63    74.35     9.12    18.02     5.69    13.52    51.43    24.57P    0.06R    0.00  
Brighton        15   21   +4      -2.48    32.65    -0.32    69.35     8.42    12.93     1.27     4.04    29.19    10.93P    0.18R    0.01  
Ipswich         15   20   +3       0.38    53.42     4.41    61.76     8.71     1.85     0.21     0.69     8.37     2.24P    2.07R    0.17  
Blackburn       15   19   +1      -2.02    36.08     0.27    64.02     8.63     4.91     0.35     1.22    12.37     3.71P    1.08R    0.10  
Bournemouth     15   18   -9       2.44    68.47    -0.13    50.78     8.57   -25.68     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.09P   23.62R    4.13  
Huddersfield    15   17   +0      -1.58    39.38     2.98    54.47     8.45    -7.66     0.01     0.06     1.53     0.32P   10.56R    1.25  
Middlesbrough   15   16   +1      -4.87    18.88     0.55    56.30     8.68    -2.87     0.01     0.11     2.73     0.61P    7.40R    0.77  
Bolton          15   16   -5      -5.46    16.23    -6.43    60.15     8.68    -2.54     0.07     0.35     5.70     1.61P    3.35R    0.28  
Doncaster       15   16  -10       0.44    54.73    -2.22    47.65     8.34   -26.54     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   35.50R    7.39  
Birmingham      15   14   -5      -6.08    13.23    -4.15    57.62     8.70    -3.26     0.05     0.18     3.38     0.89P    6.02R    0.64  
Charlton        14   14   -6      -4.11    22.27    -4.46    56.18     8.61    -8.15     0.03     0.12     2.15     0.52P    7.94R    0.92  
Millwall        15   14  -13      -2.79    30.79    -7.16    49.27     8.28   -24.57     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.04P   27.82R    5.21  
Sheff_Wed       14   11   -6      -5.75    12.93    -2.23    49.11     8.64   -14.87     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.09P   27.83R    5.25  
Barnsley        15   11  -15      -4.23    21.12    -6.19    42.32     8.06   -33.45     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   61.52R   21.30  
Yeovil          16    9  -14      -4.50    19.79    -0.87    36.38     7.81   -36.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   83.95R   52.55  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 November 2013, Walsall 2 0 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   16   39  +20       7.09    90.25     4.84    97.60     8.31    47.06    67.36    86.51    99.53    90.94P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   16   38  +23      10.52    97.01    14.58    87.55     8.51    35.72    16.02    47.13    94.16    58.79P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    16   32  +11       3.00    68.58     0.26    85.43     8.60    30.27    11.01    35.44    90.25    51.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       16   30   +8       3.61    73.17     1.42    75.49     8.41    14.45     1.14     6.29    55.76    17.58P    0.04R    0.00  
Preston         16   30   +8       6.52    87.22     5.69    75.90     8.50    15.05     1.14     6.32    57.89    16.66P    0.03R    0.00  
Swindon         16   26  +10      -2.19    34.91     0.34    78.13     8.52    26.67     2.30    11.25    69.64    29.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         16   25   +4       2.69    68.54     3.52    68.98     8.46     8.20     0.17     1.23    26.20     5.88P    0.50R    0.02  
Bradford        16   24  +10       3.37    72.02    12.00    60.83     8.54     3.12     0.01     0.19     6.86     1.30P    4.68R    0.31  
Rotherham       16   24   +2       4.90    80.20     6.82    59.68     8.70    -7.58     0.02     0.12     5.40     0.93P    7.26R    0.58  
Port_Vale       16   23   -1       3.61    73.33     3.45    61.25     8.77    -6.48     0.02     0.21     7.43     1.36P    5.20R    0.43  
MK_Dons         15   22   +4      -2.73    30.97    -2.36    71.65     8.76    14.60     0.50     2.87    39.38    12.10P    0.31R    0.01  
Coventry        16   21  +12       4.45    77.16     4.91    70.67     8.59    25.46     0.28     2.32    36.36    11.26P    0.29R    0.01  
Crawley_Town    16   20   -4      -0.07    50.40    -0.88    56.23     8.34   -11.80     0.00     0.03     2.17     0.37P   13.30R    1.58  
Gillingham      16   18   -5      -0.51    47.78     0.49    52.95     8.47   -14.66     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.15P   24.31R    3.61  
Colchester      16   17   -6      -0.86    45.11     0.28    52.95     8.17   -14.07     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.13P   23.28R    3.59  
Carlisle        16   17  -12      -0.35    49.11    -4.41    49.52     8.16   -26.98     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P   39.48R    8.15  
Shrewsbury      16   16   -3      -3.04    30.00     1.24    54.42     8.16    -6.84     0.00     0.00     1.13     0.19P   17.27R    2.11  
Oldham          15   15   -4      -2.61    32.21     0.62    51.70     8.39   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.12P   28.23R    4.59  
Bristol_City    16   14   -4      -9.03     6.21    -5.32    57.20     8.96    -1.24     0.01     0.06     3.67     0.93P   11.97R    1.45  
Stevenage       16   14  -11      -4.14    23.17    -5.13    48.46     8.15   -21.10     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   43.09R    9.24  
Tranmere        16   14  -14      -5.07    18.62    -9.72    49.83     8.17   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P   37.40R    7.08  
Crewe           16   13  -24      -1.33    41.87   -11.05    40.18     7.78   -47.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    81.89R   45.22  
Sheff_Utd       16   12  -11     -10.69     2.54   -12.08    53.94     8.37    -9.73     0.00     0.02     0.99     0.23P   19.64R    2.69  
Notts_County    16   10  -13      -9.85     3.50    -9.50    48.60     8.42   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   41.81R    9.33  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 November 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 4 0 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           16   29  +12       4.34    77.14     8.00    76.08     8.47    20.78    17.65    45.29    77.09    53.50P    0.02R    0.00  
Chesterfield         16   29   +9       2.66    67.63     2.62    78.79     8.42    21.55    26.98    57.67    85.52    66.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             16   29   +5       4.94    80.25     1.87    73.96     8.69    10.69    11.77    33.86    66.97    41.52P    0.08R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       16   28   +9       4.81    79.67     7.06    71.76     8.49    12.89     7.82    25.75    58.80    33.32P    0.12R    0.04  
Southend             16   26   +6       1.04    57.21     1.51    73.75     8.56    15.68    11.56    34.22    67.76    43.68P    0.08R    0.03  
Newport_County       16   26   +5       7.21    89.26     9.83    59.80     8.59    -6.34     0.47     2.69    12.36     4.30P    5.40R    2.04  
Dag_&_Red            16   26   +4       4.13    76.23     4.02    65.98     8.49     2.31     2.17     9.40    31.88    14.06P    0.94R    0.29  
Morecambe            16   25   +1       3.34    72.28     1.42    65.59     8.44     0.36     1.68     8.24    29.80    13.12P    1.18R    0.33  
AFC_Wimbledon        16   24   +2       4.61    79.21     5.86    61.66     8.40    -3.22     0.58     3.50    16.23     5.91P    3.29R    1.10  
Exeter               16   24   +1       0.75    55.34    -0.97    67.24     8.57     4.21     2.85    12.06    37.25    18.36P    0.75R    0.24  
Burton_Albion        16   24   +0       3.13    70.71     1.67    65.60     8.50     0.56     1.75     8.31    29.78    12.85P    1.30R    0.41  
Scunthorpe           16   24   -2      -0.46    46.99    -5.75    68.46     8.80     2.99     4.08    15.41    42.25    22.80P    0.63R    0.18  
Wycombe              15   21   +2      -0.32    48.20     0.86    63.16     8.70     1.51     1.16     5.85    22.19     9.58P    2.41R    0.82  
Hartlepool           16   21   +0      -3.09    30.14    -3.20    65.05     8.66     4.52     1.77     8.16    29.32    14.05P    1.52R    0.50  
Mansfield            16   21   -2       2.32    66.59     2.63    56.66     8.58    -9.90     0.15     1.21     6.74     2.33P   11.06R    4.76  
Portsmouth           15   20   -3      -4.33    23.02    -8.63    70.49     9.07     9.14     6.80    22.78    52.54    32.12P    0.47R    0.14  
Cheltenham           16   20   -5      -1.69    39.03    -4.61    60.82     8.50    -5.54     0.45     2.94    14.28     5.77P    4.36R    1.62  
Plymouth             16   19   -5      -0.70    45.72    -2.43    55.28     7.99   -10.65     0.05     0.49     3.73     1.21P   12.47R    5.33  
York                 16   17   -3      -2.18    35.90     0.98    52.31     8.18   -11.46     0.03     0.26     2.25     0.62P   21.93R   10.81  
Bristol_Rovers       16   15   -6      -4.62    20.91    -2.86    51.83     8.31   -12.28     0.04     0.24     2.03     0.66P   24.33R   12.43  
Bury                 16   14   -4      -8.52     7.03    -4.88    56.90     8.73    -1.23     0.16     1.31     7.71     3.16P   10.17R    4.51  
Accrington_Stanley   16   14   -8      -4.00    24.09    -2.42    48.49     8.07   -17.42     0.01     0.06     0.65     0.15P   39.28R   23.31  
Torquay              16   14  -10      -5.64    16.14    -6.64    51.35     8.28   -15.43     0.01     0.17     1.62     0.54P   26.86R   14.16  
Northampton          16   13   -8      -7.42     9.26    -5.94    50.13     8.24   -13.71     0.01     0.12     1.23     0.38P   31.33R   16.92  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 November 2013, Dartford 1 5 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    19   42  +22      10.61    96.23    13.96    87.98     7.52    35.92    44.37    94.68    57.07P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    19   36  +12       2.20    63.58    -0.23    82.99     7.51    27.81    19.02    83.62    37.53P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            19   35  +15       2.80    67.38     5.08    82.92     7.53    32.04    18.84    83.99    37.05P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          18   33  +10       2.14    63.47     0.69    80.38     7.67    24.08    11.36    73.30    28.70P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          19   31   +8       4.54    76.15     7.82    66.89     8.18     5.55     0.45    14.05     2.61P    0.52R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    19   31   +3       5.88    82.47     4.96    66.74     7.64     0.10     0.25    11.69     1.83P    0.33R    0.00  
Barnet           19   30   +8      -3.13    30.74    -3.00    75.63     7.68    21.45     3.89    50.96    17.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        18   30   +5       6.50    85.75     6.90    66.52     8.25     1.88     0.44    12.92     2.44P    0.61R    0.00  
Nuneaton         19   30   +0       6.39    85.05     3.94    65.01     7.43    -3.16     0.15     7.17     1.12P    0.61R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   19   29   +6       2.67    66.73     5.65    65.97     7.56     5.73     0.22    10.13     1.80P    0.38R    0.00  
Gateshead        19   29   +4       2.40    65.29     3.31    66.58     7.54     4.78     0.22    11.27     2.05P    0.31R    0.00  
Welling          19   29   +4       4.60    76.40     6.86    64.90     7.92     2.01     0.17     8.69     1.45P    0.92R    0.00  
Forest_Green     19   27   +5      -2.39    34.77    -0.33    66.39     7.71     8.50     0.22    11.78     2.58P    0.49R    0.00  
Macclesfield     19   26   +1      -1.60    40.11    -1.27    62.32     7.61    -0.19     0.08     4.23     0.86P    1.51R    0.00  
Wrexham          20   25   +0      -7.54    11.35    -8.29    67.92     7.42    11.18     0.29    15.13     4.10P    0.21R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   25   -2       1.00    57.22     1.08    61.31     7.59    -2.99     0.03     3.14     0.51P    2.14R    0.01  
Hereford         19   21   -3      -7.00    12.81    -5.88    59.16     7.56    -1.05     0.00     1.86     0.45P    3.79R    0.02  
Southport        19   21   -9      -1.40    42.10    -3.02    51.68     7.27   -20.03     0.00     0.13     0.01P   21.91R    0.21  
Woking           19   20   -6      -4.16    25.41    -2.45    48.79     7.31   -20.44     0.00     0.03     0.01P   34.69R    0.39  
Tamworth         19   20  -10      -0.49    47.89    -1.65    49.66     7.22   -21.69     0.00     0.03     0.00    31.21R    0.52  
Chester          20   19  -12      -0.46    48.62     0.46    47.10     7.36   -23.66     0.00     0.02     0.01P   45.19R    0.93  
Dartford         20   18  -19      -3.93    26.35    -9.69    46.69     7.14   -30.83     0.00     0.02     0.00    48.41R    1.05  
Aldershot        19   13   -6      -5.29    20.01    -9.60    57.30     7.82     5.18     0.00     1.17     0.36P    6.98R    0.06  
Hyde_United      20    3  -36     -13.67     0.18   -15.30    24.32     6.61   -62.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   96.81  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10