Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 21 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 November 2013, Man_Utd 1 0 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          11   25  +12       3.82    80.34     2.39    76.03     7.46    34.70    30.92    52.44    69.41    82.64    96.23     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        11   23  +11       2.58    71.37     2.72    70.58     7.54    27.15    10.54    24.37    40.29    57.84    86.68     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      11   22  +10       5.52    89.66     8.20    56.60     7.57     6.11     0.24     0.89     2.41     5.46    21.54     0.20R    0.00  
Chelsea          11   21   +8       0.39    52.95    -0.73    71.87     7.42    29.48    13.50    30.22    47.72    65.22    90.57     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          11   20   +5      -0.94    40.81    -4.64    73.77     7.35    32.20    19.37    39.83    59.03    74.82    93.57     0.00     0.00  
Everton          11   20   +4       2.15    68.12     0.05    62.08     7.51    11.52     1.07     3.70     8.46    16.45    47.66     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham        11   20   +3       1.10    59.48    -2.61    62.16     7.57    10.54     1.20     3.92     8.79    16.69    47.72     0.04R    0.00  
Man_City         11   19  +16      -3.77    18.42     3.45    74.18     7.18    46.01    23.11    44.36    62.95    78.02    94.85     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        11   17   -1       3.81    81.02     2.43    51.44     7.60    -6.18     0.02     0.11     0.40     1.17     7.31     1.86R    0.08  
West_Brom        11   14   +0       0.12    52.21     2.13    51.16     7.70    -0.24     0.04     0.12     0.36     1.11     7.36     2.01R    0.07  
Aston_Villa      11   14   -1       1.53    64.76     3.26    47.12     7.40    -7.60     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.24     2.34     5.36R    0.29  
Hull             11   14   -5       3.64    81.99     2.52    39.04     7.03   -22.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    31.18R    3.78  
Swansea          11   12   +0      -2.21    31.82     1.26    46.15     7.41    -5.03     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.19     1.94     6.82R    0.41  
Cardiff          11   12   -6       0.99    60.71     0.05    39.97     7.29   -20.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.25    26.94R    3.30  
Norwich          11   11  -12      -0.15    50.03    -4.97    38.95     7.25   -27.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    32.89R    4.63  
West_Ham         11   10   -2      -3.61    21.01     0.01    42.35     7.28    -9.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.51    15.66R    1.51  
Stoke            11   10   -4      -2.23    30.52     0.21    42.17     7.28   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.54    16.49R    1.40  
Fulham           11   10   -9      -2.62    28.11    -4.86    42.61     7.40   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.59    16.52R    1.39  
Sunderland       11    7  -14      -4.33    15.65    -8.37    35.73     7.13   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    50.07R    8.73  
Crystal_Palace   11    4  -15      -3.82    15.53    -2.49    24.44     6.60   -43.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.94R   74.41  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 November 2013, Yeovil 0 1 Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         15   34  +17       8.78    94.73     9.92    83.93     8.54    28.29    28.09    48.10    86.81    57.25P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       15   32   +9       6.22    87.20     1.13    82.40     8.51    21.01    21.24    39.71    82.55    50.78P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             15   32   +9       7.10    90.58     2.67    83.48     8.62    22.09    25.23    44.86    84.99    55.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool       15   27   +5       3.99    76.34     1.29    73.08     8.51    10.48     3.33     8.93    43.85    16.67P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   15   26   +7       3.54    74.06     4.03    71.63     8.58    11.83     2.64     7.04    38.17    13.76P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         15   24   +5      -0.82    43.92    -1.48    74.06     9.08    16.76     5.14    12.82    50.09    23.25P    0.03R    0.00  
Watford         15   23   +7      -1.05    42.66     1.44    74.28     8.67    20.87     4.98    12.63    51.93    23.17P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds_United    15   23   +4       2.35    66.83     3.85    66.40     8.64     5.23     0.63     2.23    18.58     5.51P    0.49R    0.03  
Derby           15   22   +6       0.53    54.15     4.73    68.21     8.73    11.69     1.14     3.51    25.35     8.29P    0.31R    0.02  
Wigan           14   22   +5      -1.66    37.68    -1.67    74.47     9.08    18.11     5.67    13.61    51.78    24.82P    0.06R    0.00  
Brighton        15   21   +4      -2.57    31.97    -0.47    69.45     8.41    13.04     1.26     3.97    29.30    10.83P    0.18R    0.00  
Ipswich         15   20   +3       0.40    53.64     4.49    61.70     8.64     1.71     0.17     0.63     7.81     2.01P    1.96R    0.14  
Blackburn       15   19   +1      -2.00    36.05     0.31    63.90     8.62     4.71     0.28     1.04    11.96     3.56P    1.13R    0.08  
Bournemouth     15   18   -9       2.42    68.34    -0.16    50.86     8.62   -25.50     0.00     0.02     0.62     0.11P   22.61R    4.35  
Huddersfield    15   17   +0      -1.59    39.23     3.00    54.55     8.35    -7.57     0.01     0.04     1.38     0.29P    9.97R    1.35  
Middlesbrough   15   16   +1      -4.92    18.63     0.50    56.49     8.74    -2.53     0.03     0.14     2.81     0.70P    7.23R    0.93  
Bolton          15   16   -5      -5.42    16.11    -6.36    60.17     8.66    -2.59     0.09     0.39     5.69     1.71P    3.21R    0.34  
Birmingham      15   14   -5      -6.05    13.51    -4.13    57.62     8.66    -3.30     0.05     0.19     3.38     0.88P    5.82R    0.65  
Charlton        14   14   -6      -4.12    22.13    -4.47    56.18     8.65    -8.19     0.02     0.12     2.27     0.58P    8.08R    1.09  
Millwall        15   14  -13      -2.71    31.34    -7.05    48.91     8.29   -25.04     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.04P   28.86R    5.91  
Doncaster       14   13  -11      -0.72    46.21    -2.56    46.04     8.49   -27.47     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   42.37R   11.66  
Sheff_Wed       14   11   -6      -5.60    13.51    -2.00    48.87     8.59   -15.20     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.07P   28.02R    5.79  
Barnsley        15   11  -15      -4.21    21.26    -6.16    42.36     8.13   -33.44     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    60.69R   22.39  
Yeovil          15    9  -13      -3.73    23.91    -0.84    37.78     7.99   -34.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.83R   45.27  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 November 2013, Walsall 2 0 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   16   39  +20       7.18    90.46     4.97    97.40     8.32    46.75    66.94    86.31    99.50    90.67P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   16   38  +23      10.61    97.14    14.77    87.51     8.45    35.67    16.17    46.92    94.24    58.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    16   32  +11       2.98    68.88     0.23    85.53     8.61    30.44    11.37    35.81    90.25    52.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       16   30   +8       3.67    73.70     1.48    75.44     8.40    14.37     1.17     6.23    55.58    17.44P    0.04R    0.00  
Preston         16   30   +8       6.42    86.91     5.55    76.05     8.41    15.29     1.16     6.42    58.58    17.10P    0.03R    0.00  
Swindon         16   26  +10      -2.18    34.68     0.36    78.08     8.47    26.65     2.21    11.17    69.44    28.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         16   25   +4       2.56    67.71     3.27    69.16     8.44     8.52     0.15     1.27    27.06     6.37P    0.43R    0.01  
Bradford        16   24  +10       3.46    72.56    12.16    60.58     8.55     2.69     0.02     0.17     6.49     1.21P    5.18R    0.35  
Rotherham       16   24   +2       4.81    79.76     6.65    59.92     8.72    -7.20     0.03     0.16     5.42     0.90P    6.75R    0.62  
Port_Vale       16   23   -1       3.49    72.83     3.23    61.40     8.80    -6.21     0.02     0.17     7.79     1.34P    5.20R    0.42  
MK_Dons         15   22   +4      -2.59    31.85    -2.16    71.56     8.80    14.44     0.44     2.83    39.01    12.22P    0.29R    0.01  
Coventry        16   21  +12       4.49    77.55     4.94    70.57     8.64    25.33     0.34     2.43    35.88    11.31P    0.30R    0.02  
Crawley_Town    16   20   -4      -0.08    50.18    -0.86    56.24     8.32   -11.81     0.00     0.02     2.02     0.30P   13.21R    1.45  
Gillingham      16   18   -5      -0.65    46.40     0.33    52.97     8.48   -14.67     0.00     0.01     0.89     0.18P   24.04R    3.69  
Colchester      16   17   -6      -0.81    45.34     0.28    52.91     8.23   -14.08     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.12P   23.46R    3.58  
Carlisle        16   17  -12      -0.25    49.79    -4.25    49.32     8.12   -27.31     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P   40.65R    8.46  
Shrewsbury      16   16   -3      -3.06    29.92     1.23    54.47     8.22    -6.76     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.19P   17.37R    2.28  
Oldham          15   15   -4      -2.53    32.68     0.75    51.46     8.38   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.10P   28.95R    4.90  
Bristol_City    16   14   -4      -8.93     6.52    -5.14    57.03     8.99    -1.52     0.00     0.05     3.45     0.88P   12.57R    1.65  
Stevenage       16   14  -11      -4.19    22.80    -5.23    48.47     8.19   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   43.21R    9.38  
Tranmere        16   14  -14      -5.24    17.67    -9.99    50.20     8.17   -21.68     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   35.28R    6.41  
Crewe           16   13  -24      -1.35    41.42   -11.08    40.23     7.65   -47.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    82.04R   44.59  
Sheff_Utd       16   12  -11     -10.67     2.54   -12.06    53.92     8.35    -9.73     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.20P   19.40R    2.72  
Notts_County    16   10  -13      -9.80     3.40    -9.45    48.63     8.46   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   41.57R    9.46  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 November 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 4 0 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           16   29  +12       4.30    77.09     7.96    76.18     8.44    20.96    18.08    45.38    77.59    53.92P    0.02R    0.01  
Chesterfield         16   29   +9       2.64    67.60     2.58    78.89     8.34    21.69    27.13    58.07    85.74    66.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             16   29   +5       4.98    80.35     1.95    73.92     8.56    10.59    11.67    33.80    66.86    41.56P    0.06R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       16   28   +9       4.80    79.54     7.06    71.69     8.55    12.79     7.87    25.44    58.40    33.05P    0.13R    0.03  
Southend             16   26   +6       1.09    57.38     1.58    73.61     8.51    15.47    10.80    33.62    67.31    43.25P    0.09R    0.02  
Newport_County       16   26   +5       7.27    89.47     9.88    59.69     8.56    -6.53     0.53     2.60    12.16     4.08P    5.51R    2.10  
Dag_&_Red            16   26   +4       4.01    75.78     3.85    66.10     8.42     2.52     2.12     9.54    31.84    14.23P    0.90R    0.25  
Morecambe            16   25   +1       3.45    72.72     1.61    65.48     8.46     0.19     1.72     8.18    29.30    12.81P    1.15R    0.41  
AFC_Wimbledon        16   24   +2       4.79    80.18     6.16    61.40     8.32    -3.62     0.50     3.19    15.35     5.39P    3.38R    1.25  
Exeter               16   24   +1       0.80    55.87    -0.84    67.18     8.47     4.09     2.63    11.65    36.60    17.73P    0.76R    0.21  
Burton_Albion        16   24   +0       3.05    70.53     1.52    65.71     8.48     0.78     1.73     8.42    30.33    12.98P    1.18R    0.40  
Scunthorpe           16   24   -2      -0.49    46.73    -5.80    68.63     8.82     3.15     4.13    15.81    42.96    22.95P    0.56R    0.13  
Wycombe              15   21   +2      -0.34    48.03     0.80    63.22     8.69     1.58     1.15     5.79    22.46     9.77P    2.36R    0.81  
Hartlepool           16   21   +0      -3.21    29.33    -3.38    65.31     8.68     4.87     1.96     8.84    30.21    14.95P    1.35R    0.44  
Mansfield            16   21   -2       2.47    67.53     2.83    56.39     8.54   -10.23     0.13     1.05     6.36     2.04P   11.46R    5.13  
Portsmouth           15   20   -3      -4.41    22.40    -8.73    70.59     9.16     9.29     7.06    23.27    52.93    32.79P    0.50R    0.19  
Cheltenham           16   20   -5      -1.73    38.82    -4.67    60.91     8.52    -5.36     0.47     2.92    14.61     5.72P    4.40R    1.66  
Plymouth             16   19   -5      -0.61    46.58    -2.34    55.25     8.01   -10.72     0.06     0.45     3.81     1.14P   12.72R    5.29  
York                 16   17   -3      -2.20    35.65     0.95    52.33     8.19   -11.44     0.04     0.22     2.14     0.62P   22.11R   10.82  
Bristol_Rovers       16   15   -6      -4.72    20.68    -2.98    51.85     8.33   -12.22     0.01     0.19     1.95     0.58P   24.37R   12.41  
Bury                 16   14   -4      -8.47     7.18    -4.78    56.76     8.73    -1.44     0.16     1.26     7.62     2.97P   10.36R    4.63  
Accrington_Stanley   16   14   -8      -4.12    23.48    -2.62    48.69     8.09   -17.15     0.00     0.05     0.67     0.18P   38.40R   22.59  
Torquay              16   14  -10      -5.60    16.39    -6.56    51.28     8.27   -15.55     0.02     0.14     1.60     0.44P   27.03R   14.12  
Northampton          16   13   -8      -7.49     9.00    -6.05    50.13     8.30   -13.72     0.01     0.13     1.19     0.39P   31.18R   17.09  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 November 2013, Dartford 1 5 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    19   42  +22      10.65    96.24    13.98    88.02     7.54    35.93    44.80    94.68    57.32P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    19   36  +12       2.08    62.84    -0.45    83.13     7.46    28.07    19.43    84.08    38.15P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            19   35  +15       2.90    68.11     5.27    82.74     7.55    31.71    18.01    83.13    36.13P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          18   33  +10       2.10    63.27     0.63    80.46     7.65    24.11    11.36    73.44    28.20P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          19   31   +8       4.55    76.15     7.83    66.96     8.16     5.67     0.46    14.07     2.67P    0.53R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    19   31   +3       5.86    82.53     4.91    66.76     7.63     0.11     0.25    11.59     1.83P    0.39R    0.00  
Barnet           19   30   +8      -3.25    30.11    -3.20    75.76     7.68    21.65     3.91    51.53    17.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        18   30   +5       6.56    85.78     6.98    66.47     8.17     1.83     0.38    12.32     2.25P    0.65R    0.00  
Nuneaton         19   30   +0       6.38    85.41     3.99    65.00     7.50    -3.23     0.14     7.37     1.14P    0.66R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   19   29   +6       2.80    67.56     5.82    65.82     7.57     5.47     0.16     9.61     1.72P    0.44R    0.00  
Gateshead        19   29   +4       2.32    64.72     3.24    66.71     7.55     5.00     0.25    11.60     2.19P    0.32R    0.00  
Welling          19   29   +4       4.66    76.41     6.96    64.86     7.98     1.93     0.19     8.84     1.58P    0.88R    0.00  
Forest_Green     19   27   +5      -2.44    34.72    -0.43    66.38     7.72     8.52     0.21    11.64     2.63P    0.45R    0.00  
Macclesfield     19   26   +1      -1.42    41.31    -1.03    62.15     7.53    -0.46     0.05     4.07     0.79P    1.51R    0.01  
Wrexham          20   25   +0      -7.63    11.13    -8.45    68.07     7.45    11.42     0.35    15.75     4.43P    0.19R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   25   -2       1.02    57.54     1.12    61.34     7.61    -2.95     0.04     3.21     0.52P    2.08R    0.01  
Hereford         19   21   -3      -6.98    13.11    -5.85    59.06     7.55    -1.27     0.01     1.70     0.37P    3.77R    0.01  
Southport        19   21   -9      -1.38    42.14    -3.00    51.61     7.25   -20.16     0.00     0.10     0.01P   22.04R    0.21  
Woking           19   20   -6      -4.15    25.60    -2.44    48.79     7.34   -20.43     0.00     0.04     0.01P   34.83R    0.41  
Tamworth         19   20  -10      -0.59    46.99    -1.76    49.72     7.25   -21.55     0.00     0.08     0.01P   30.80R    0.45  
Chester          20   19  -12      -0.45    48.58     0.50    47.03     7.28   -23.72     0.00     0.01     0.00    45.29R    1.01  
Dartford         20   18  -19      -3.89    26.65    -9.60    46.60     7.16   -30.89     0.00     0.02     0.00    48.89R    1.12  
Aldershot        19   13   -6      -5.30    20.14    -9.65    57.35     7.76     5.29     0.00     1.11     0.33P    6.45R    0.06  
Hyde_United      20    3  -36     -13.72     0.21   -15.37    24.40     6.67   -62.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.80R   96.70  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10