Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 20 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 November 2013, Man_Utd 1 0 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          11   25  +12       3.76    80.13     2.31    76.10     7.45    34.80    30.78    52.78    69.79    82.81    96.26     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        11   23  +11       2.54    71.18     2.65    70.64     7.58    27.26    10.50    24.78    40.94    58.25    86.76     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      11   22  +10       5.49    89.56     8.15    56.67     7.54     6.27     0.23     0.89     2.41     5.38    22.12     0.18R    0.00  
Chelsea          11   21   +8       0.43    53.24    -0.63    71.69     7.42    29.14    13.25    29.39    46.79    64.38    90.11     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          11   20   +5      -0.99    40.12    -4.72    73.80     7.32    32.28    19.46    39.91    59.02    75.10    93.83     0.00     0.00  
Everton          11   20   +4       2.11    67.63     0.02    62.02     7.54    11.41     1.18     3.89     8.61    16.49    47.34     0.03R    0.00  
Tottenham        11   20   +3       1.10    59.38    -2.58    62.14     7.55    10.54     1.15     3.84     8.73    16.82    47.78     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City         11   19  +16      -3.71    19.08     3.54    74.13     7.20    45.94    23.40    44.24    62.71    77.81    94.87     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        11   17   -1       3.77    80.74     2.38    51.51     7.56    -6.05     0.02     0.12     0.46     1.21     7.31     1.73R    0.06  
West_Brom        11   14   +0       0.20    52.74     2.24    50.97     7.66    -0.54     0.03     0.14     0.37     1.10     7.00     2.13R    0.08  
Aston_Villa      11   14   -1       1.51    64.50     3.18    47.20     7.42    -7.43     0.01     0.02     0.09     0.30     2.46     5.61R    0.30  
Hull             11   14   -5       3.61    81.55     2.49    39.15     7.06   -22.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    30.99R    3.60  
Swansea          11   12   +0      -2.18    32.38     1.31    46.07     7.44    -5.12     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.20     1.88     7.10R    0.39  
Cardiff          11   12   -6       0.95    60.41    -0.04    40.07     7.25   -20.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.22    26.23R    3.16  
Norwich          11   11  -12      -0.15    50.04    -4.96    38.96     7.23   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14    32.85R    4.52  
West_Ham         11   10   -2      -3.60    21.10    -0.03    42.40     7.29    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.53    15.65R    1.49  
Stoke            11   10   -4      -2.26    29.94     0.16    42.22     7.27   -10.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.54    16.29R    1.26  
Fulham           11   10   -9      -2.57    28.42    -4.79    42.57     7.44   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.63    16.87R    1.50  
Sunderland       11    7  -14      -4.27    16.18    -8.28    35.71     7.10   -27.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06    50.19R    8.67  
Crystal_Palace   11    4  -15      -3.81    15.78    -2.42    24.30     6.60   -43.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.14R   74.97  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 November 2013, Yeovil 0 1 Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         15   34  +17       8.77    94.76     9.89    84.13     8.62    28.60    28.88    49.01    87.21    58.42P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       15   32   +9       6.28    87.47     1.21    82.25     8.55    20.80    20.59    38.72    82.16    49.78P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             15   32   +9       7.14    90.79     2.71    83.54     8.56    22.17    25.23    45.27    85.45    56.46P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       15   27   +5       4.07    76.50     1.40    72.91     8.53    10.27     3.32     8.78    43.56    16.58P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   15   26   +7       3.51    74.16     4.02    71.54     8.59    11.70     2.59     7.07    37.69    13.48P    0.09R    0.00  
Reading         15   24   +5      -0.88    43.44    -1.57    74.24     9.02    17.05     5.16    12.94    50.63    23.45P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         15   23   +7      -1.05    42.47     1.52    74.11     8.74    20.56     5.00    12.49    51.44    22.78P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds_United    15   23   +4       2.35    66.91     3.84    66.53     8.68     5.44     0.70     2.26    19.20     5.69P    0.49R    0.02  
Derby           15   22   +6       0.62    54.72     4.90    68.11     8.65    11.43     1.07     3.35    24.85     8.12P    0.30R    0.02  
Wigan           14   22   +5      -1.59    38.29    -1.55    74.31     9.13    17.90     5.61    13.53    51.38    24.58P    0.06R    0.00  
Brighton        15   21   +4      -2.45    33.00    -0.32    69.22     8.41    12.72     1.16     3.89    28.54    10.58P    0.15R    0.00  
Ipswich         15   20   +3       0.39    53.56     4.48    61.72     8.59     1.72     0.17     0.65     8.25     2.14P    1.88R    0.14  
Blackburn       15   19   +1      -2.07    35.81     0.24    63.94     8.64     4.78     0.35     1.13    12.41     3.59P    1.12R    0.11  
Bournemouth     15   18   -9       2.28    67.03    -0.40    50.93     8.61   -25.35     0.00     0.01     0.61     0.09P   22.64R    4.31  
Huddersfield    15   17   +0      -1.52    39.70     3.12    54.49     8.39    -7.72     0.02     0.05     1.39     0.26P   10.28R    1.35  
Middlesbrough   15   16   +1      -4.96    18.39     0.48    56.50     8.70    -2.54     0.02     0.17     2.93     0.72P    6.95R    0.86  
Bolton          15   16   -5      -5.48    16.14    -6.46    60.23     8.70    -2.45     0.10     0.43     5.97     1.70P    3.24R    0.29  
Birmingham      15   14   -5      -6.14    13.13    -4.22    57.73     8.64    -3.11     0.02     0.13     3.34     0.89P    5.78R    0.70  
Charlton        14   14   -6      -4.12    21.76    -4.48    56.12     8.56    -8.26     0.02     0.08     2.27     0.55P    7.75R    1.01  
Millwall        15   14  -13      -2.74    30.99    -7.08    49.10     8.26   -24.76     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   28.25R    5.77  
Doncaster       14   13  -11      -0.64    46.75    -2.45    45.89     8.54   -27.75     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.03P   43.70R   12.17  
Sheff_Wed       14   11   -6      -5.75    12.85    -2.24    49.15     8.69   -14.75     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.08P   27.15R    5.66  
Barnsley        15   11  -15      -4.28    20.81    -6.27    42.33     8.10   -33.44     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00    61.14R   22.46  
Yeovil          15    9  -13      -3.66    24.12    -0.76    37.79     8.01   -35.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.88R   45.11  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 November 2013, Walsall 2 0 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   16   39  +20       7.15    90.42     4.94    97.45     8.30    46.80    66.52    86.24    99.52    90.75P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   16   38  +23      10.45    96.94    14.47    87.77     8.42    36.01    16.35    47.72    94.45    59.13P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    16   32  +11       2.94    68.31     0.18    85.63     8.66    30.50    11.85    36.07    90.30    52.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       16   30   +8       3.65    73.31     1.48    75.37     8.43    14.28     1.16     5.94    55.23    17.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Preston         16   30   +8       6.44    87.00     5.63    75.98     8.44    15.19     1.08     6.30    58.07    16.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon         16   26  +10      -2.16    34.81     0.38    78.03     8.46    26.58     2.11    10.83    69.20    28.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         16   25   +4       2.58    67.37     3.31    69.15     8.47     8.47     0.14     1.23    27.08     6.22P    0.48R    0.02  
Bradford        16   24  +10       3.39    72.01    12.04    60.77     8.56     3.01     0.01     0.18     6.97     1.29P    4.74R    0.33  
Rotherham       16   24   +2       4.90    80.17     6.74    59.69     8.71    -7.56     0.01     0.09     5.22     0.81P    7.28R    0.56  
Port_Vale       16   23   -1       3.47    72.59     3.20    61.44     8.80    -6.10     0.02     0.19     7.64     1.44P    5.03R    0.43  
MK_Dons         15   22   +4      -2.63    31.83    -2.20    71.59     8.74    14.47     0.46     2.73    39.02    11.83P    0.30R    0.01  
Coventry        16   21  +12       4.48    77.16     4.95    70.64     8.67    25.41     0.28     2.40    36.33    11.08P    0.33R    0.02  
Crawley_Town    16   20   -4      -0.08    50.27    -0.82    56.23     8.32   -11.79     0.00     0.01     2.13     0.34P   13.19R    1.44  
Gillingham      16   18   -5      -0.58    46.87     0.38    52.95     8.50   -14.64     0.00     0.01     0.93     0.13P   24.28R    3.70  
Colchester      16   17   -6      -0.78    45.76     0.39    52.86     8.23   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.10P   23.71R    3.70  
Carlisle        16   17  -12      -0.28    49.33    -4.35    49.45     8.19   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   39.66R    8.44  
Shrewsbury      16   16   -3      -2.93    30.60     1.41    54.23     8.19    -7.10     0.00     0.01     1.14     0.21P   17.89R    2.22  
Oldham          15   15   -4      -2.55    32.50     0.73    51.63     8.39   -12.93     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.08P   28.30R    4.59  
Bristol_City    16   14   -4      -9.03     6.32    -5.30    57.18     8.90    -1.23     0.00     0.05     3.50     0.90P   11.93R    1.52  
Stevenage       16   14  -11      -4.16    22.91    -5.14    48.49     8.14   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   42.96R    9.08  
Tranmere        16   14  -14      -5.08    18.34    -9.76    49.93     8.21   -22.16     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P   36.78R    7.01  
Crewe           16   13  -24      -1.41    41.16   -11.15    40.21     7.72   -47.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    81.74R   44.78  
Sheff_Utd       16   12  -11     -10.62     2.77   -12.01    53.79     8.48    -9.95     0.00     0.01     1.04     0.30P   19.98R    3.01  
Notts_County    16   10  -13      -9.84     3.33    -9.51    48.64     8.45   -17.12     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.06P   41.34R    9.12  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 November 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 4 0 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           16   29  +12       4.23    76.67     7.84    76.27     8.45    21.05    17.97    46.16    77.96    54.67P    0.02R    0.01  
Chesterfield         16   29   +9       2.66    67.62     2.58    78.87     8.36    21.64    27.36    58.07    85.78    66.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             16   29   +5       5.04    80.38     2.02    73.82     8.65    10.45    11.32    33.06    66.35    40.71P    0.07R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       16   28   +9       4.77    79.28     7.02    71.76     8.54    12.91     7.82    25.87    58.48    33.32P    0.12R    0.03  
Southend             16   26   +6       1.04    57.29     1.52    73.80     8.47    15.77    11.39    33.89    68.08    43.72P    0.06R    0.01  
Newport_County       16   26   +5       7.09    88.86     9.68    59.92     8.60    -6.19     0.54     2.77    12.75     4.48P    5.32R    1.89  
Dag_&_Red            16   26   +4       4.24    76.86     4.14    65.77     8.39     2.01     1.95     8.71    30.47    13.09P    1.00R    0.30  
Morecambe            16   25   +1       3.33    72.16     1.42    65.59     8.48     0.28     1.77     8.47    29.68    13.07P    1.17R    0.40  
AFC_Wimbledon        16   24   +2       4.75    79.94     6.10    61.56     8.36    -3.45     0.59     3.46    15.95     5.68P    3.35R    1.15  
Exeter               16   24   +1       0.83    55.86    -0.86    67.13     8.50     4.08     2.80    11.51    36.55    17.59P    0.76R    0.20  
Burton_Albion        16   24   +0       3.05    70.37     1.55    65.67     8.50     0.71     1.72     8.42    29.94    13.03P    1.28R    0.39  
Scunthorpe           16   24   -2      -0.53    46.42    -5.85    68.83     8.79     3.51     4.21    16.26    43.79    23.95P    0.55R    0.19  
Wycombe              15   21   +2      -0.33    47.89     0.85    63.25     8.76     1.68     1.22     6.03    22.76     9.93P    2.49R    0.84  
Hartlepool           16   21   +0      -3.19    29.60    -3.35    65.25     8.68     4.81     1.76     8.51    30.00    14.70P    1.45R    0.51  
Mansfield            16   21   -2       2.43    67.27     2.81    56.47     8.53   -10.17     0.15     1.15     6.39     2.14P   11.21R    4.89  
Portsmouth           15   20   -3      -4.24    23.40    -8.51    70.29     9.21     8.79     6.73    22.32    51.53    31.47P    0.55R    0.18  
Cheltenham           16   20   -5      -1.70    39.07    -4.61    60.75     8.49    -5.67     0.44     2.87    14.20     5.52P    4.32R    1.65  
Plymouth             16   19   -5      -0.69    45.88    -2.42    55.35     8.00   -10.54     0.06     0.49     3.90     1.16P   12.46R    5.30  
York                 16   17   -3      -2.31    35.00     0.77    52.44     8.21   -11.26     0.02     0.26     2.40     0.67P   21.53R   10.59  
Bristol_Rovers       16   15   -6      -4.69    20.61    -2.90    51.83     8.32   -12.23     0.02     0.23     2.05     0.64P   24.33R   12.32  
Bury                 16   14   -4      -8.45     7.16    -4.76    56.67     8.71    -1.56     0.14     1.16     7.40     2.90P   10.65R    4.81  
Accrington_Stanley   16   14   -8      -4.11    23.30    -2.59    48.66     8.12   -17.18     0.01     0.07     0.73     0.20P   38.45R   22.50  
Torquay              16   14  -10      -5.63    16.11    -6.61    51.28     8.32   -15.55     0.02     0.17     1.65     0.51P   26.96R   14.21  
Northampton          16   13   -8      -7.36     9.37    -5.85    49.98     8.31   -13.91     0.01     0.11     1.22     0.35P   31.87R   17.59  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 November 2013, Dartford 1 5 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    19   42  +22      10.61    96.10    13.97    87.97     7.54    35.91    44.15    94.65    56.64P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    19   36  +12       2.03    62.45    -0.49    83.12     7.52    28.10    19.22    83.93    37.63P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            19   35  +15       2.87    67.76     5.18    82.91     7.49    31.95    18.64    83.78    37.35P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          18   33  +10       2.05    62.99     0.53    80.66     7.68    24.47    11.60    74.68    28.97P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          19   31   +8       4.62    76.52     7.92    66.92     8.15     5.57     0.43    14.16     2.60P    0.50R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    19   31   +3       5.88    82.60     4.97    66.71     7.61     0.05     0.29    11.28     1.81P    0.31R    0.00  
Barnet           19   30   +8      -3.12    30.59    -2.98    75.55     7.67    21.30     3.83    50.57    17.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        18   30   +5       6.40    85.29     6.76    66.64     8.23     2.06     0.40    13.13     2.34P    0.65R    0.00  
Nuneaton         19   30   +0       6.49    85.36     4.13    64.86     7.46    -3.47     0.11     7.06     1.02P    0.67R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   19   29   +6       2.89    68.25     5.98    65.82     7.53     5.46     0.20     9.56     1.65P    0.42R    0.00  
Gateshead        19   29   +4       2.38    65.35     3.28    66.61     7.59     4.89     0.25    11.35     2.19P    0.33R    0.00  
Welling          19   29   +4       4.66    76.84     6.93    64.81     7.88     1.90     0.16     8.20     1.40P    0.96R    0.00  
Forest_Green     19   27   +5      -2.49    34.49    -0.48    66.53     7.78     8.72     0.28    12.28     2.88P    0.43R    0.00  
Macclesfield     19   26   +1      -1.52    40.90    -1.14    62.12     7.58    -0.48     0.05     3.92     0.70P    1.61R    0.00  
Wrexham          20   25   +0      -7.46    12.02    -8.22    67.83     7.50    11.06     0.35    15.09     4.26P    0.21R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   25   -2       0.90    56.42     0.88    61.43     7.56    -2.83     0.02     3.22     0.48P    2.04R    0.00  
Hereford         19   21   -3      -6.97    12.96    -5.83    59.11     7.53    -1.20     0.01     1.72     0.40P    3.73R    0.02  
Southport        19   21   -9      -1.37    42.18    -2.93    51.56     7.24   -20.28     0.00     0.13     0.01P   22.11R    0.25  
Woking           19   20   -6      -4.26    24.88    -2.59    48.82     7.29   -20.39     0.00     0.04     0.00P   34.91R    0.47  
Tamworth         19   20  -10      -0.56    47.41    -1.73    49.77     7.24   -21.44     0.00     0.06     0.01P   30.59R    0.45  
Chester          20   19  -12      -0.46    48.59     0.38    47.08     7.38   -23.63     0.00     0.02     0.00P   45.36R    0.87  
Dartford         20   18  -19      -3.94    26.32    -9.64    46.71     7.19   -30.78     0.00     0.01     0.00    48.61R    1.02  
Aldershot        19   13   -6      -5.25    20.55    -9.58    57.30     7.81     5.17     0.00     1.15     0.37P    6.75R    0.07  
Hyde_United      20    3  -36     -13.69     0.19   -15.29    24.33     6.63   -62.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.80R   96.83  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10