Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 19 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 November 2013, Man_Utd 1 0 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          11   25  +12       3.75    80.03     2.28    76.15     7.45    34.82    31.19    53.22    70.16    82.81    96.36     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        11   23  +11       2.51    71.08     2.61    70.78     7.55    27.46    10.90    25.04    41.68    59.01    87.29     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      11   22  +10       5.54    89.75     8.22    56.59     7.60     6.11     0.25     0.89     2.43     5.50    21.88     0.23R    0.00  
Chelsea          11   21   +8       0.48    53.82    -0.59    71.65     7.49    29.08    13.29    29.15    46.25    64.08    89.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          11   20   +5      -0.94    40.69    -4.63    73.76     7.37    32.26    19.48    39.98    58.60    74.74    93.56     0.00     0.00  
Everton          11   20   +4       2.14    68.05     0.07    62.03     7.53    11.43     1.12     3.74     8.62    16.49    47.67     0.02R    0.00  
Tottenham        11   20   +3       1.06    59.02    -2.64    62.09     7.59    10.44     1.15     3.85     8.75    16.64    47.69     0.03R    0.00  
Man_City         11   19  +16      -3.67    19.20     3.61    74.05     7.20    45.75    22.56    43.84    62.52    77.75    94.75     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        11   17   -1       3.79    80.68     2.38    51.54     7.60    -6.01     0.04     0.15     0.45     1.23     7.34     1.81R    0.10  
West_Brom        11   14   +0       0.22    52.88     2.26    50.91     7.68    -0.63     0.01     0.09     0.36     1.09     7.00     2.08R    0.09  
Aston_Villa      11   14   -1       1.54    64.91     3.23    47.12     7.43    -7.55     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.28     2.40     5.72R    0.35  
Hull             11   14   -5       3.64    81.88     2.47    39.09     7.04   -22.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13    30.94R    3.58  
Swansea          11   12   +0      -2.15    32.34     1.34    46.04     7.42    -5.18     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.21     1.92     7.08R    0.39  
Cardiff          11   12   -6       0.93    60.26    -0.05    40.10     7.32   -20.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.26    26.56R    3.39  
Norwich          11   11  -12      -0.13    50.10    -4.92    38.88     7.26   -27.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16    33.63R    4.59  
West_Ham         11   10   -2      -3.65    20.78    -0.05    42.48     7.35    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.59    15.67R    1.52  
Stoke            11   10   -4      -2.28    30.06     0.12    42.29     7.25   -10.14     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.55    15.95R    1.31  
Fulham           11   10   -9      -2.65    27.90    -4.88    42.66     7.40   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.55    16.37R    1.33  
Sunderland       11    7  -14      -4.35    15.52    -8.38    35.80     7.05   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    49.74R    8.40  
Crystal_Palace   11    4  -15      -3.80    15.67    -2.46    24.32     6.64   -43.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.17R   74.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 November 2013, Yeovil 0 1 Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         15   34  +17       8.71    94.81     9.80    84.24     8.53    28.77    29.32    49.74    87.74    59.03P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       15   32   +9       6.29    87.67     1.27    82.23     8.43    20.78    20.64    38.97    82.13    50.02P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             15   32   +9       7.17    90.59     2.75    83.32     8.58    21.87    24.48    43.88    84.78    55.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool       15   27   +5       3.97    76.02     1.30    73.02     8.48    10.44     3.39     9.03    43.77    16.77P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   15   26   +7       3.47    73.50     3.94    71.67     8.59    11.85     2.59     7.25    38.20    14.15P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         15   24   +5      -0.91    43.49    -1.64    74.21     8.99    17.01     5.13    12.88    50.73    23.30P    0.04R    0.00  
Watford         15   23   +7      -1.08    42.24     1.45    74.24     8.72    20.77     5.22    12.66    51.54    22.92P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United    15   23   +4       2.36    67.05     3.85    66.46     8.73     5.33     0.70     2.33    19.19     5.62P    0.48R    0.02  
Derby           15   22   +6       0.65    54.87     4.92    68.14     8.71    11.48     1.12     3.56    24.90     8.20P    0.36R    0.02  
Wigan           14   22   +5      -1.55    38.48    -1.50    74.19     9.08    17.75     5.36    12.95    50.88    23.84P    0.06R    0.00  
Brighton        15   21   +4      -2.53    32.51    -0.42    69.40     8.48    12.98     1.34     4.16    29.29    10.89P    0.23R    0.01  
Ipswich         15   20   +3       0.42    53.77     4.52    61.79     8.60     1.80     0.19     0.64     8.24     2.15P    1.88R    0.13  
Blackburn       15   19   +1      -2.02    36.12     0.28    63.85     8.61     4.69     0.30     1.09    12.00     3.57P    1.13R    0.08  
Bournemouth     15   18   -9       2.50    68.70    -0.03    50.60     8.64   -25.93     0.00     0.02     0.53     0.10P   23.71R    4.79  
Huddersfield    15   17   +0      -1.55    39.66     3.01    54.48     8.39    -7.71     0.01     0.05     1.48     0.30P   10.00R    1.40  
Middlesbrough   15   16   +1      -4.93    18.54     0.49    56.42     8.67    -2.66     0.02     0.13     2.75     0.64P    7.17R    0.84  
Bolton          15   16   -5      -5.51    16.08    -6.50    60.33     8.65    -2.33     0.11     0.40     5.76     1.72P    3.14R    0.32  
Birmingham      15   14   -5      -5.99    13.58    -4.05    57.60     8.60    -3.31     0.04     0.15     3.22     0.80P    5.77R    0.73  
Charlton        14   14   -6      -4.20    21.68    -4.58    56.21     8.61    -8.06     0.03     0.10     2.16     0.54P    7.84R    1.08  
Millwall        15   14  -13      -2.72    31.32    -7.04    49.08     8.26   -24.80     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.06P   28.21R    5.80  
Doncaster       14   13  -11      -0.66    46.71    -2.45    45.88     8.50   -27.77     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   43.55R   12.08  
Sheff_Wed       14   11   -6      -5.71    13.03    -2.18    49.11     8.60   -14.84     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.09P   27.09R    5.74  
Barnsley        15   11  -15      -4.27    20.95    -6.23    42.31     8.08   -33.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   61.27R   22.62  
Yeovil          15    9  -13      -3.77    23.70    -0.96    37.95     8.03   -34.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.93R   44.34  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 November 2013, Walsall 2 0 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   16   39  +20       7.16    90.31     4.96    97.41     8.37    46.74    66.79    86.21    99.51    90.75P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   16   38  +23      10.71    97.13    14.87    87.51     8.52    35.60    16.34    46.92    93.97    58.17P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    16   32  +11       3.00    68.87     0.23    85.47     8.64    30.29    11.23    36.05    90.10    52.02P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       16   30   +8       3.65    73.69     1.48    75.36     8.41    14.27     1.19     5.97    55.21    17.12P    0.05R    0.00  
Preston         16   30   +8       6.33    86.86     5.39    76.22     8.43    15.53     1.24     6.64    59.19    17.45P    0.04R    0.00  
Swindon         16   26  +10      -2.23    34.21     0.26    78.16     8.46    26.77     2.21    11.27    69.68    29.14P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         16   25   +4       2.62    67.81     3.40    68.99     8.43     8.25     0.11     1.15    26.25     6.08P    0.47R    0.01  
Bradford        16   24  +10       3.31    71.63    11.91    60.83     8.55     3.17     0.02     0.20     7.03     1.33P    4.76R    0.31  
Rotherham       16   24   +2       4.92    80.27     6.80    59.55     8.64    -7.79     0.01     0.09     5.10     0.82P    7.24R    0.60  
Port_Vale       16   23   -1       3.53    73.08     3.32    61.26     8.74    -6.33     0.01     0.15     7.32     1.27P    5.32R    0.45  
MK_Dons         15   22   +4      -2.61    31.89    -2.22    71.53     8.77    14.39     0.50     2.80    38.79    12.09P    0.28R    0.01  
Coventry        16   21  +12       4.45    77.18     4.90    70.70     8.67    25.56     0.34     2.49    36.85    11.57P    0.35R    0.02  
Crawley_Town    16   20   -4      -0.14    49.81    -0.95    56.40     8.26   -11.60     0.00     0.01     2.07     0.30P   12.61R    1.37  
Gillingham      16   18   -5      -0.62    46.95     0.36    53.08     8.45   -14.44     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.17P   23.39R    3.48  
Colchester      16   17   -6      -0.88    45.15     0.17    53.04     8.18   -13.94     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.13P   23.10R    3.41  
Carlisle        16   17  -12      -0.20    50.02    -4.18    49.34     8.14   -27.18     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.05P   40.36R    8.43  
Shrewsbury      16   16   -3      -3.04    29.97     1.29    54.37     8.18    -6.90     0.00     0.01     1.13     0.21P   17.58R    2.24  
Oldham          15   15   -4      -2.55    32.52     0.75    51.54     8.41   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.10P   28.58R    4.78  
Bristol_City    16   14   -4      -9.03     6.32    -5.31    57.27     8.87    -1.15     0.00     0.04     3.43     0.89P   11.73R    1.54  
Stevenage       16   14  -11      -4.19    22.82    -5.20    48.55     8.15   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   43.08R    9.11  
Tranmere        16   14  -14      -5.10    18.33    -9.77    50.00     8.13   -22.02     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   36.32R    6.87  
Crewe           16   13  -24      -1.29    42.30   -10.96    40.18     7.74   -47.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    82.11R   44.94  
Sheff_Utd       16   12  -11     -10.67     2.70   -12.06    53.84     8.38    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.21P   20.08R    2.75  
Notts_County    16   10  -13      -9.83     3.47    -9.41    48.50     8.46   -17.44     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   42.53R    9.68  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 November 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 4 0 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           16   29  +12       4.28    76.93     7.94    76.21     8.44    20.98    17.94    45.86    77.49    54.06P    0.02R    0.01  
Chesterfield         16   29   +9       2.64    67.49     2.54    78.95     8.33    21.76    27.65    58.81    85.87    66.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             16   29   +5       4.99    80.21     1.98    73.91     8.60    10.60    11.57    33.91    67.19    41.90P    0.07R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       16   28   +9       4.85    79.79     7.15    71.63     8.53    12.69     7.55    25.39    58.26    33.00P    0.16R    0.04  
Southend             16   26   +6       1.12    58.00     1.68    73.48     8.44    15.33    10.82    32.72    66.81    42.61P    0.07R    0.02  
Newport_County       16   26   +5       7.16    89.23     9.76    59.84     8.55    -6.34     0.55     2.61    12.30     4.23P    5.41R    1.91  
Dag_&_Red            16   26   +4       4.15    76.34     4.06    65.90     8.46     2.19     2.06     9.21    31.00    13.72P    0.98R    0.29  
Morecambe            16   25   +1       3.38    72.43     1.52    65.57     8.44     0.30     1.76     8.46    29.54    13.09P    1.13R    0.35  
AFC_Wimbledon        16   24   +2       4.67    79.74     5.99    61.58     8.33    -3.31     0.56     3.29    15.94     5.54P    3.36R    1.14  
Exeter               16   24   +1       0.84    56.09    -0.83    67.17     8.50     4.12     2.70    11.75    36.76    17.84P    0.74R    0.22  
Burton_Albion        16   24   +0       3.06    70.44     1.54    65.63     8.47     0.61     1.74     8.27    29.65    12.75P    1.26R    0.45  
Scunthorpe           16   24   -2      -0.56    46.31    -5.93    68.81     8.80     3.47     4.25    16.26    44.10    23.84P    0.60R    0.19  
Wycombe              15   21   +2      -0.39    47.75     0.73    63.31     8.62     1.79     1.13     5.76    22.63     9.74P    2.30R    0.78  
Hartlepool           16   21   +0      -3.17    29.81    -3.33    65.22     8.77     4.70     1.92     8.88    30.17    14.98P    1.44R    0.54  
Mansfield            16   21   -2       2.45    67.41     2.82    56.45     8.49   -10.18     0.14     1.01     6.33     1.95P   11.19R    4.82  
Portsmouth           15   20   -3      -4.28    23.30    -8.55    70.37     9.20     8.96     6.87    22.42    52.19    31.80P    0.54R    0.18  
Cheltenham           16   20   -5      -1.66    39.66    -4.56    60.71     8.47    -5.67     0.46     2.79    14.08     5.40P    4.42R    1.62  
Plymouth             16   19   -5      -0.71    45.96    -2.46    55.40     7.95   -10.52     0.05     0.44     3.87     1.13P   12.26R    5.10  
York                 16   17   -3      -2.14    36.07     1.02    52.33     8.20   -11.45     0.03     0.26     2.30     0.65P   22.05R   10.78  
Bristol_Rovers       16   15   -6      -4.62    20.94    -2.87    51.80     8.37   -12.28     0.02     0.22     2.21     0.62P   24.55R   12.46  
Bury                 16   14   -4      -8.54     7.10    -4.86    56.81     8.84    -1.43     0.18     1.30     7.75     3.21P   10.67R    4.96  
Accrington_Stanley   16   14   -8      -4.07    23.59    -2.57    48.65     8.13   -17.22     0.01     0.07     0.71     0.19P   38.60R   22.63  
Torquay              16   14  -10      -5.65    15.81    -6.64    51.32     8.31   -15.45     0.02     0.18     1.63     0.49P   26.81R   14.26  
Northampton          16   13   -8      -7.54     8.93    -6.11    50.13     8.29   -13.66     0.01     0.12     1.22     0.38P   31.36R   17.23  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 November 2013, Dartford 1 5 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    19   42  +22      10.72    96.29    14.12    87.88     7.55    35.75    43.68    94.47    56.13P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    19   36  +12       2.09    62.48    -0.45    83.10     7.45    28.09    19.36    84.14    38.02P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            19   35  +15       2.77    67.22     5.05    82.96     7.55    32.10    19.14    83.97    37.45P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          18   33  +10       2.15    63.64     0.65    80.52     7.66    24.21    11.41    74.02    28.78P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          19   31   +8       4.59    76.51     7.91    66.85     8.09     5.41     0.40    13.57     2.54P    0.50R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    19   31   +3       5.95    83.11     5.09    66.58     7.59    -0.15     0.25    10.89     1.65P    0.39R    0.00  
Barnet           19   30   +8      -3.24    30.16    -3.15    75.75     7.68    21.58     3.95    51.59    17.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        18   30   +5       6.46    85.43     6.84    66.58     8.29     1.96     0.41    13.05     2.41P    0.70R    0.00  
Nuneaton         19   30   +0       6.45    85.20     4.08    64.80     7.46    -3.45     0.11     7.04     0.96P    0.69R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   19   29   +6       2.90    68.13     5.98    65.71     7.57     5.31     0.20     9.63     1.70P    0.46R    0.00  
Gateshead        19   29   +4       2.44    65.51     3.41    66.50     7.62     4.71     0.20    11.24     2.00P    0.37R    0.00  
Welling          19   29   +4       4.61    76.40     6.87    64.98     7.97     2.10     0.20     8.97     1.67P    0.91R    0.00  
Forest_Green     19   27   +5      -2.52    34.23    -0.56    66.46     7.72     8.63     0.27    11.64     2.55P    0.42R    0.00  
Macclesfield     19   26   +1      -1.60    39.69    -1.31    62.37     7.58    -0.10     0.05     4.42     0.84P    1.48R    0.01  
Wrexham          20   25   +0      -7.47    11.82    -8.26    67.83     7.44    11.09     0.33    15.00     4.11P    0.23R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   25   -2       0.97    57.21     1.06    61.37     7.58    -2.88     0.03     3.16     0.51P    2.12R    0.00  
Hereford         19   21   -3      -7.00    13.20    -5.89    59.12     7.60    -1.13     0.00     1.82     0.40P    4.06R    0.01  
Southport        19   21   -9      -1.43    41.69    -3.06    51.60     7.26   -20.16     0.00     0.13     0.02P   22.25R    0.21  
Woking           19   20   -6      -4.13    25.66    -2.42    48.75     7.27   -20.54     0.00     0.03     0.01P   35.24R    0.37  
Tamworth         19   20  -10      -0.57    47.11    -1.77    49.76     7.18   -21.47     0.00     0.03     0.00P   30.59R    0.46  
Chester          20   19  -12      -0.55    47.89     0.33    47.25     7.37   -23.45     0.00     0.03     0.00P   44.45R    0.83  
Dartford         20   18  -19      -3.92    26.47    -9.63    46.67     7.16   -30.83     0.00     0.01     0.00P   49.03R    0.99  
Aldershot        19   13   -6      -5.32    19.88    -9.66    57.46     7.70     5.40     0.01     1.14     0.35P    6.28R    0.06  
Hyde_United      20    3  -36     -13.67     0.19   -15.24    24.30     6.56   -62.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.83R   97.06  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10