Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 8 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 November 2013, Cardiff 1 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          10   25  +13       4.62    86.79     2.44    77.21     7.72    35.23    31.08    53.65    71.12    83.56    96.62     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          10   20   +8       1.53    63.65     0.56    73.55     7.69    31.34    15.41    34.34    53.50    70.69    92.35     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        10   20   +7       2.13    68.81     0.65    68.16     7.76    21.67     4.79    13.40    25.70    41.84    76.97     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        10   20   +4       2.93    75.45    -0.90    65.13     7.82    13.97     2.17     7.01    14.98    26.76    62.25     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         10   19  +17      -1.92    30.58     5.16    77.31     7.38    49.94    32.84    57.53    74.61    85.83    97.26     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      10   19   +7       4.85    87.80     6.47    54.44     7.71     2.39     0.09     0.39     1.15     2.93    13.83     0.52R    0.01  
Everton          10   19   +4       3.03    75.80     0.81    63.51     7.73    13.01     1.32     4.57    10.53    20.34    53.95     0.03R    0.00  
Man_Utd          10   17   +4      -2.24    28.70    -5.17    72.40     7.60    31.53    12.28    28.95    47.79    65.96    90.27     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        10   14   -2       1.93    68.31     1.09    48.59     7.78    -9.22     0.01     0.05     0.17     0.54     3.84     3.99R    0.21  
Hull             10   14   -2       4.09    85.50     3.87    40.95     7.27   -17.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.30    20.20R    1.67  
West_Brom        10   13   +0      -0.02    50.49     1.20    49.72     7.82    -3.02     0.01     0.07     0.27     0.78     5.26     2.99R    0.09  
Cardiff          10   12   -4       1.70    67.27     1.06    41.96     7.62   -17.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.64    17.85R    1.53  
Swansea          10   11   +0      -1.60    36.27     1.48    46.71     7.64    -4.37     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.27     2.17     5.79R    0.27  
Aston_Villa      10   11   -3       0.61    57.59     2.27    45.38     7.59    -9.72     0.01     0.01     0.04     0.14     1.47     8.30R    0.51  
West_Ham         10   10   +0      -2.47    28.35     1.64    44.35     7.59    -6.37     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.12     1.22     9.83R    0.71  
Fulham           10   10   -5      -2.45    28.93    -2.86    44.04     7.65   -12.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     1.13    11.41R    0.72  
Stoke            10    9   -4      -2.14    30.15    -0.30    41.71     7.37   -11.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.39    16.90R    1.23  
Norwich          10    8  -14      -1.40    37.50    -6.44    36.74     7.41   -29.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    42.86R    6.47  
Sunderland       10    4  -15      -6.44     4.66   -10.13    32.55     7.22   -31.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    64.95R   14.07  
Crystal_Palace   10    3  -15      -3.84    13.76    -2.90    23.47     6.76   -46.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.39R   72.50  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Birmingham 0 1 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         14   33  +17       9.65    96.93    10.72    85.85     8.77    30.85    31.39    53.23    91.05    62.31P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       14   32  +11       7.57    92.92     3.01    85.08     8.75    25.07    27.40    49.15    89.10    59.54P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             14   31   +9       7.35    92.37     2.54    83.46     8.76    21.62    20.52    40.22    85.24    52.88P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       14   27   +6       5.53    84.61     2.52    75.59     8.73    13.30     4.98    12.89    57.02    22.47P    0.02R    0.00  
Reading         14   23   +5      -0.46    46.33    -1.51    74.38     9.13    16.82     4.67    11.99    51.99    23.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   14   23   +5       2.00    64.90     2.19    68.52     8.73     7.61     1.01     3.26    26.40     8.23P    0.31R    0.02  
Watford         14   22   +7      -0.56    45.84     1.61    74.44     8.96    20.51     4.51    11.69    53.66    22.60P    0.04R    0.01  
Leeds_United    14   20   +2       1.04    58.52     2.31    63.44     8.73     1.33     0.22     0.88    12.00     3.00P    1.48R    0.13  
Blackburn       14   19   +4      -1.53    38.81     1.98    66.37     8.81     9.55     0.53     1.93    20.39     6.22P    0.65R    0.05  
Wigan           13   19   +4      -2.66    30.14    -1.82    73.41     9.29    18.09     3.62    10.06    48.96    21.68P    0.10R    0.01  
Derby           14   19   +3      -0.10    49.77     3.26    65.88     8.93     7.49     0.48     1.77    18.86     5.36P    0.89R    0.06  
Brighton        14   18   +1      -3.29    26.68    -2.20    66.47     8.68     8.14     0.41     1.78    20.18     6.68P    0.63R    0.05  
Ipswich         14   17   +2      -1.31    40.75     3.35    58.68     8.82    -1.23     0.07     0.27     4.99     1.17P    5.01R    0.56  
Huddersfield    14   17   +2      -0.58    46.34     4.40    57.17     8.66    -3.55     0.03     0.14     3.31     0.73P    6.79R    0.87  
Bournemouth     14   17   -9       2.39    68.74    -0.83    49.96     8.76   -27.94     0.00     0.02     0.62     0.11P   28.37R    6.33  
Middlesbrough   14   15   +1      -4.47    19.78     0.52    56.90     8.92    -2.50     0.04     0.16     3.46     0.82P    7.59R    1.00  
Charlton        13   14   -4      -2.97    28.25    -2.86    58.98     8.80    -3.83     0.05     0.26     4.96     1.31P    4.79R    0.61  
Millwall        14   14  -11      -2.14    34.75    -6.41    50.43     8.48   -22.81     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.09P   24.94R    5.14  
Bolton          14   13   -7      -6.44    10.65    -7.47    58.46     8.78    -4.62     0.05     0.20     4.38     1.14P    5.62R    0.70  
Doncaster       13   12  -11      -0.47    48.02    -2.48    46.17     8.80   -28.15     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.01P   44.61R   13.83  
Sheff_Wed       13   11   -3      -5.31    14.04    -0.77    50.84     8.82   -11.30     0.00     0.02     0.76     0.17P   22.29R    4.46  
Birmingham      14   11   -7      -7.36     7.52    -5.61    54.90     8.82    -6.89     0.01     0.05     2.00     0.48P   11.71R    1.94  
Barnsley        14   10  -15      -3.65    23.88    -5.73    43.32     8.33   -32.70     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   57.89R   21.34  
Yeovil          14    9  -12      -3.00    28.12    -0.72    38.79     8.30   -34.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    76.22R   42.89  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 November 2013, Bristol_City 2 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   15   38  +24      11.88    98.83    15.50    90.04     8.73    38.41    22.30    54.10    96.92    64.83P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   15   36  +19       6.03    86.88     4.65    96.36     8.53    46.82    55.68    80.38    99.45    87.02P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    15   32  +13       3.88    75.07     1.42    88.59     8.90    35.13    18.45    46.35    95.31    61.85P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         15   27   +7       4.83    80.95     4.67    73.70     8.68    13.21     0.61     3.61    51.97    13.01P    0.15R    0.00  
Brentford       15   27   +3       3.71    74.61    -1.02    72.64     8.61     7.69     0.56     2.76    46.34    11.77P    0.18R    0.01  
Bradford        15   23  +10       3.61    74.06    11.68    60.62     8.78     2.37     0.01     0.17     8.11     1.41P    5.97R    0.56  
Swindon         15   23   +9      -3.21    27.56     0.33    76.45     8.70    25.56     1.41     6.91    66.22    24.93P    0.05R    0.00  
MK_Dons         15   22   +4      -2.60    32.01    -2.16    71.69     8.82    14.65     0.44     2.45    43.45    12.63P    0.29R    0.01  
Walsall         15   22   +2       1.22    59.16     1.73    66.25     8.71     4.61     0.08     0.56    20.66     4.51P    1.56R    0.09  
Rotherham       15   21   -1       3.99    76.73     4.95    56.46     8.89   -13.31     0.01     0.04     3.40     0.49P   15.82R    2.33  
Coventry        15   20  +12       5.05    81.17     5.31    71.21     8.86    25.60     0.43     2.46    42.92    12.86P    0.35R    0.02  
Port_Vale       15   20   -3       2.48    67.67     2.21    58.87     8.97    -9.61     0.01     0.06     5.89     0.97P   10.12R    1.36  
Crawley_Town    15   19   -4       0.21    52.34    -0.95    56.78     8.55   -11.67     0.00     0.04     3.34     0.53P   13.62R    1.74  
Colchester      15   17   -5       0.01    51.35     0.48    53.82     8.49   -13.79     0.00     0.01     1.58     0.22P   22.44R    3.82  
Shrewsbury      15   16   -1      -2.16    35.22     2.48    56.33     8.43    -4.02     0.00     0.01     2.74     0.47P   13.77R    1.92  
Carlisle        15   16  -12       0.07    52.00    -4.32    49.89     8.39   -27.11     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P   39.48R    9.66  
Oldham          15   15   -4      -2.54    32.62     0.78    51.63     8.38   -12.88     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.16P   29.72R    5.71  
Gillingham      15   15   -6      -2.17    35.44    -0.51    50.10     8.58   -17.60     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.10P   37.62R    8.69  
Stevenage       15   14   -8      -3.40    26.82    -3.14    51.43     8.40   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.11P   31.04R    6.26  
Bristol_City    15   13   -4      -8.50     6.72    -5.06    57.56     9.17    -1.27     0.01     0.05     5.02     1.19P   12.75R    1.77  
Tranmere        15   13  -14      -4.82    18.94    -9.90    50.10     8.41   -22.48     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.06P   38.03R    8.69  
Crewe           15   13  -19      -1.36    40.92    -8.59    42.40     7.96   -40.97     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   74.84R   36.28  
Sheff_Utd       15   12  -10      -9.40     3.96   -11.18    56.45     8.61    -7.09     0.00     0.03     2.95     0.69P   14.08R    1.98  
Notts_County    15   10  -12      -9.05     4.42    -9.34    49.84     8.64   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.12P   38.10R    9.09  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Fleetwood_Town       15   28  +10       6.00    85.98     7.83    73.72     8.75    14.80    11.33    32.39    64.94    39.69P    0.08R    0.03  
Oxford_Utd           15   26  +10       3.34    72.41     6.90    73.75     8.55    17.81    11.23    32.78    65.91    41.18P    0.06R    0.01  
Chesterfield         15   26   +7       1.70    61.83     1.57    76.64     8.61    18.87    18.71    45.25    76.57    54.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Rochdale             15   26   +4       3.59    73.54     1.30    71.56     8.84     8.44     7.69    23.85    54.16    30.71P    0.19R    0.06  
Morecambe            15   25   +2       4.50    79.08     2.17    67.23     8.67     1.71     2.72    11.25    34.67    16.13P    0.62R    0.12  
Exeter               15   24   +3       1.82    63.02     0.62    69.44     8.79     7.40     4.89    17.14    45.22    23.69P    0.37R    0.10  
Burton_Albion        15   24   +2       3.92    75.82     2.79    67.83     8.75     3.85     3.18    12.48    37.62    17.88P    0.55R    0.16  
Scunthorpe           15   24   +0       0.45    53.03    -4.42    71.99     9.03     8.15     8.53    25.46    55.89    33.89P    0.19R    0.06  
Southend             15   23   +4      -0.10    49.53     0.19    71.19     8.70    12.36     6.86    22.92    53.97    31.35P    0.16R    0.05  
Newport_County       15   23   +3       6.01    86.21     8.57    56.62     8.67   -10.88     0.21     1.27     6.50     2.09P    9.24R    3.59  
Dag_&_Red            15   23   +2       3.01    70.87     2.79    63.67     8.63    -0.76     1.21     5.63    21.68     8.78P    1.50R    0.46  
Wycombe              14   21   +3       0.94    57.56     1.65    65.30     8.90     3.66     2.19     8.67    28.38    13.31P    1.20R    0.38  
Hartlepool           15   21   +2      -2.30    34.62    -1.99    68.05     8.97     8.77     3.94    14.42    40.49    22.00P    0.56R    0.16  
Mansfield            15   21   +0       3.29    72.91     4.01    58.57     8.76    -6.93     0.34     2.02     9.44     3.45P    6.36R    2.41  
AFC_Wimbledon        15   21   -2       3.89    76.58     3.22    57.64     8.44   -10.86     0.19     1.12     6.89     2.05P    7.28R    2.72  
Portsmouth           14   20   +1      -3.88    24.36    -6.01    74.86     9.36    17.81    16.08    38.76    68.69    48.64P    0.13R    0.04  
Plymouth             15   18   -5      -0.23    49.05    -2.27    55.50     8.11   -10.87     0.06     0.47     3.73     1.10P   10.38R    3.95  
Cheltenham           15   17   -6      -3.30    28.29    -5.56    58.41     8.69    -7.71     0.27     1.62     8.86     3.44P    6.66R    2.56  
York                 15   16   -3      -1.66    38.74     1.26    52.73     8.42   -11.38     0.04     0.27     2.39     0.66P   18.40R    8.33  
Bristol_Rovers       15   14   -6      -4.37    21.25    -3.01    52.07     8.46   -12.58     0.03     0.20     1.92     0.57P   20.56R    9.37  
Torquay              15   14   -8      -4.90    18.93    -5.50    53.30     8.52   -12.59     0.05     0.34     2.77     0.85P   16.94R    7.49  
Bury                 15   13   -4      -8.24     7.05    -4.99    57.45     8.98    -0.98     0.27     1.60     8.39     3.58P    8.31R    3.34  
Accrington_Stanley   15   11  -10      -5.63    14.17    -4.32    45.19     8.21   -22.04     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.05P   51.55R   32.94  
Northampton          15   10   -9      -8.97     4.46    -6.80    47.70     8.47   -16.05     0.01     0.06     0.66     0.21P   38.69R   21.65  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Alfreton_Town 3 0 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    17   38  +18      10.28    96.67    11.40    85.01     7.88    29.26    33.36    88.40    46.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    17   32  +10       1.72    61.36    -1.02    82.06     7.91    26.19    20.43    79.99    37.82P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            17   31  +14       2.12    64.05     5.00    81.87     7.95    31.26    20.53    79.84    37.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          17   30   +8       1.18    57.74    -0.32    78.60     7.84    21.81    10.37    66.05    25.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        17   30   +6       7.46    89.74     7.18    67.62     8.43     2.67     0.95    16.75     3.44P    0.54R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   17   29   +9       4.60    78.76     7.24    69.31     7.93     9.77     1.11    21.56     4.51P    0.16R    0.00  
Barnet           17   28   +8      -1.83    37.39    -2.25    78.13     8.11    24.13    10.62    63.91    26.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          17   28   +5       5.97    83.31     7.18    66.59     8.39     2.67     0.67    14.09     2.80P    0.76R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town    17   28   +2       5.91    84.55     4.38    66.38     8.09    -1.00     0.49    12.52     2.22P    0.62R    0.01  
Nuneaton         17   27   +0       5.65    83.68     3.21    63.01     7.80    -5.95     0.14     5.58     0.90P    1.49R    0.01  
Gateshead        17   26   +4       2.05    64.10     3.08    65.98     7.95     4.39     0.35    11.71     2.34P    0.61R    0.00  
Halifax          17   25   +0       4.28    76.99     4.94    60.91     8.45    -6.87     0.12     4.35     0.72P    3.80R    0.06  
Lincoln_City     17   22   +0      -0.09    50.06     1.71    61.23     7.98    -0.62     0.06     4.05     0.79P    2.63R    0.03  
Macclesfield     17   22   -1      -1.97    37.04    -1.94    61.08     8.00    -2.00     0.09     4.02     0.84P    2.74R    0.04  
Forest_Green     17   21   +1      -4.24    23.11    -2.14    63.17     8.08     4.60     0.20     6.95     1.63P    1.65R    0.01  
Southport        17   21   -5       0.65    55.29    -0.28    56.30     7.73   -12.91     0.01     0.96     0.14P    8.99R    0.16  
Wrexham          17   19   -3      -8.47     6.73    -9.70    65.21     7.94     6.73     0.29    10.18     2.98P    0.78R    0.00  
Dartford         17   18  -10      -2.56    32.97    -5.50    52.28     7.81   -18.79     0.00     0.27     0.04P   20.88R    0.58  
Hereford         17   17   -6      -7.13    10.88    -7.26    57.79     7.90    -4.24     0.03     1.57     0.33P    6.35R    0.08  
Tamworth         17   17   -9      -1.11    43.21    -1.18    49.76     7.62   -20.04     0.00     0.09     0.01P   30.74R    1.40  
Woking           17   14  -10      -5.76    15.67    -3.84    45.98     7.70   -23.51     0.00     0.03     0.00P   51.09R    3.21  
Chester          17   14  -13      -1.70    39.37    -1.23    43.27     7.84   -29.04     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.65R    7.35  
Aldershot        17   13   +2      -5.06    19.63    -5.23    63.09     8.10    17.92     0.17     7.10     2.53P    1.68R    0.04  
Hyde_United      17    3  -30     -11.49     0.57   -13.45    28.13     7.30   -56.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.82R   87.01  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10