Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 6 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 November 2013, Cardiff 1 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          10   25  +13       4.63    87.06     2.45    77.28     7.72    35.34    31.13    53.95    71.26    83.90    96.55     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          10   20   +8       1.54    64.03     0.61    73.44     7.68    31.18    14.99    33.87    53.08    70.41    92.15     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        10   20   +7       2.12    68.78     0.60    68.37     7.84    21.98     5.19    14.13    26.93    42.73    77.77     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        10   20   +4       2.98    76.03    -0.84    65.02     7.82    13.76     2.00     6.63    14.36    26.08    61.77     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         10   19  +17      -1.93    30.44     5.10    77.31     7.35    50.06    32.92    57.50    74.56    86.16    97.21     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      10   19   +7       4.85    87.63     6.49    54.41     7.71     2.32     0.09     0.40     1.15     2.90    13.97     0.56R    0.01  
Everton          10   19   +4       3.02    75.80     0.78    63.49     7.78    13.01     1.33     4.55    10.64    20.22    53.61     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          10   17   +4      -2.21    28.98    -5.11    72.32     7.67    31.42    12.34    28.83    47.34    65.45    90.02     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        10   14   -2       1.92    68.35     1.09    48.59     7.74    -9.19     0.00     0.04     0.19     0.60     3.87     3.81R    0.15  
Hull             10   14   -2       4.17    85.80     3.99    40.85     7.29   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.33    20.60R    1.69  
West_Brom        10   13   +0      -0.06    50.08     1.12    49.92     7.80    -2.71     0.01     0.06     0.25     0.76     5.46     2.66R    0.11  
Cardiff          10   12   -4       1.71    67.33     1.07    41.91     7.58   -17.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.58    17.76R    1.52  
Swansea          10   11   +0      -1.57    36.50     1.57    46.69     7.57    -4.44     0.01     0.02     0.09     0.29     2.25     5.65R    0.25  
Aston_Villa      10   11   -3       0.61    57.53     2.25    45.31     7.59    -9.82     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.14     1.52     8.32R    0.54  
West_Ham         10   10   +0      -2.61    27.39     1.46    44.53     7.56    -6.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13     1.27     9.36R    0.71  
Fulham           10   10   -5      -2.47    28.63    -2.89    44.05     7.64   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     1.14    11.33R    0.73  
Stoke            10    9   -4      -2.18    29.90    -0.38    41.83     7.33   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.43    16.35R    1.13  
Norwich          10    8  -14      -1.36    38.01    -6.32    36.63     7.41   -30.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    43.78R    6.67  
Sunderland       10    4  -15      -6.41     4.82   -10.08    32.45     7.27   -31.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    65.40R   14.59  
Crystal_Palace   10    3  -15      -3.87    13.27    -2.96    23.55     6.74   -46.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.41R   71.91  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Birmingham 0 1 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         14   33  +17       9.57    96.85    10.63    85.82     8.75    30.86    31.13    53.20    90.69    62.25P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       14   32  +11       7.45    92.49     2.81    85.38     8.76    25.47    28.41    50.10    89.78    60.69P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             14   31   +9       7.42    92.53     2.62    83.31     8.80    21.44    20.09    39.62    84.66    51.82P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       14   27   +6       5.49    84.62     2.47    75.62     8.68    13.32     4.80    12.55    56.88    22.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Reading         14   23   +5      -0.50    45.89    -1.60    74.67     9.18    17.20     4.88    12.43    53.49    23.87P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   14   23   +5       1.99    64.58     2.18    68.41     8.74     7.49     0.92     3.16    26.04     7.89P    0.30R    0.01  
Watford         14   22   +7      -0.55    45.76     1.60    74.50     8.86    20.61     4.25    11.47    53.93    22.72P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds_United    14   20   +2       0.95    57.88     2.19    63.61     8.76     1.61     0.24     0.90    12.39     3.17P    1.44R    0.12  
Blackburn       14   19   +4      -1.53    38.85     2.01    66.31     8.80     9.38     0.49     1.85    19.97     6.12P    0.63R    0.04  
Wigan           13   19   +4      -2.63    30.24    -1.76    73.28     9.33    17.87     3.63    10.04    48.23    21.48P    0.14R    0.01  
Derby           14   19   +3      -0.14    49.39     3.19    66.05     8.94     7.70     0.43     1.83    19.46     5.53P    0.86R    0.06  
Brighton        14   18   +1      -3.31    26.59    -2.23    66.57     8.61     8.31     0.49     1.81    19.85     6.50P    0.50R    0.04  
Ipswich         14   17   +2      -1.34    40.28     3.28    58.91     8.74    -0.97     0.06     0.25     5.00     1.17P    4.70R    0.49  
Huddersfield    14   17   +2      -0.52    46.87     4.46    57.01     8.70    -3.75     0.02     0.12     3.10     0.67P    7.07R    0.94  
Bournemouth     14   17   -9       2.42    69.10    -0.79    49.85     8.67   -28.16     0.01     0.02     0.47     0.09P   28.25R    6.31  
Middlesbrough   14   15   +1      -4.50    19.51     0.50    56.88     8.86    -2.50     0.03     0.16     3.43     0.79P    7.42R    0.92  
Charlton        13   14   -4      -2.91    28.64    -2.78    58.83     8.81    -4.06     0.06     0.24     4.87     1.19P    4.93R    0.58  
Millwall        14   14  -11      -2.19    34.49    -6.45    50.63     8.47   -22.40     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.09P   24.01R    4.61  
Bolton          14   13   -7      -6.33    11.16    -7.29    58.17     8.78    -5.03     0.04     0.16     4.02     1.00P    5.96R    0.79  
Doncaster       13   12  -11      -0.38    49.13    -2.36    45.90     8.76   -28.57     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.03P   45.52R   14.34  
Sheff_Wed       13   11   -3      -5.30    14.24    -0.79    50.93     8.92   -11.20     0.01     0.02     0.87     0.19P   22.18R    4.49  
Birmingham      14   11   -7      -7.37     7.58    -5.63    55.04     8.85    -6.63     0.02     0.06     2.12     0.53P   11.11R    1.63  
Barnsley        14   10  -15      -3.60    24.05    -5.68    43.31     8.33   -32.72     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   57.68R   21.23  
Yeovil          14    9  -12      -2.93    28.51    -0.59    38.56     8.17   -35.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.19R   43.40  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 November 2013, Bristol_City 2 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   15   38  +24      11.95    98.84    15.60    90.02     8.73    38.38    22.93    53.83    96.99    64.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   15   36  +19       6.16    87.29     4.84    96.20     8.59    46.44    55.03    79.91    99.38    86.78P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    15   32  +13       3.88    74.94     1.43    88.63     8.82    35.15    18.32    46.62    95.22    62.20P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         15   27   +7       4.91    81.30     4.80    73.42     8.71    12.76     0.66     3.47    50.48    12.73P    0.12R    0.00  
Brentford       15   27   +3       3.62    74.08    -1.13    72.73     8.62     7.81     0.53     2.89    45.98    11.53P    0.17R    0.01  
Bradford        15   23  +10       3.57    74.13    11.61    60.75     8.80     2.64     0.01     0.17     8.78     1.49P    5.87R    0.55  
Swindon         15   23   +9      -3.35    26.58     0.12    76.75     8.67    25.97     1.59     7.52    67.31    25.74P    0.05R    0.00  
MK_Dons         15   22   +4      -2.61    31.82    -2.18    71.64     8.78    14.53     0.42     2.28    43.48    12.57P    0.28R    0.01  
Walsall         15   22   +2       1.15    58.49     1.66    66.36     8.61     4.75     0.07     0.55    20.72     4.24P    1.30R    0.08  
Rotherham       15   21   -1       4.03    77.07     5.03    56.34     8.85   -13.45     0.00     0.03     3.18     0.46P   15.86R    2.20  
Coventry        15   20  +12       4.98    81.01     5.15    71.36     8.81    25.86     0.44     2.55    43.55    13.22P    0.31R    0.01  
Port_Vale       15   20   -3       2.48    67.86     2.19    58.88     8.95    -9.53     0.00     0.06     5.85     0.90P   10.19R    1.23  
Crawley_Town    15   19   -4       0.32    53.12    -0.77    56.57     8.55   -11.90     0.00     0.04     3.04     0.49P   13.85R    1.88  
Colchester      15   17   -5      -0.09    50.33     0.31    54.03     8.45   -13.53     0.00     0.00     1.51     0.26P   21.44R    3.69  
Shrewsbury      15   16   -1      -2.18    35.05     2.47    56.40     8.41    -3.91     0.00     0.01     2.72     0.45P   13.46R    1.89  
Carlisle        15   16  -12       0.12    52.50    -4.26    49.79     8.37   -27.30     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.04P   40.06R    9.78  
Oldham          15   15   -4      -2.57    32.53     0.72    51.60     8.35   -12.86     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.14P   29.85R    5.51  
Gillingham      15   15   -6      -2.07    36.18    -0.37    49.88     8.63   -17.91     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.10P   38.75R    9.24  
Stevenage       15   14   -8      -3.32    27.47    -3.05    51.29     8.41   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.12P   31.79R    6.36  
Bristol_City    15   13   -4      -8.63     6.33    -5.21    57.76     9.13    -0.96     0.00     0.04     5.14     1.21P   12.08R    1.82  
Tranmere        15   13  -14      -4.79    19.04    -9.85    50.18     8.44   -22.41     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.07P   37.54R    8.60  
Crewe           15   13  -19      -1.46    40.37    -8.77    42.59     8.02   -40.65     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   74.08R   35.39  
Sheff_Utd       15   12  -10      -9.34     4.05   -11.12    56.40     8.62    -7.13     0.00     0.01     2.93     0.72P   14.09R    2.06  
Notts_County    15   10  -12      -9.01     4.42    -9.25    49.64     8.70   -16.89     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.07P   38.86R    9.69  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Fleetwood_Town       15   28  +10       6.05    86.00     7.92    73.67     8.76    14.71    11.34    32.10    64.70    39.52P    0.08R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           15   26  +10       3.29    72.21     6.83    73.85     8.58    17.93    11.73    33.27    66.31    41.81P    0.04R    0.01  
Chesterfield         15   26   +7       1.61    61.33     1.43    76.78     8.66    19.06    19.45    46.06    77.04    55.01P    0.02R    0.01  
Rochdale             15   26   +4       3.60    73.59     1.33    71.46     8.90     8.30     7.49    23.63    53.90    30.63P    0.18R    0.04  
Morecambe            15   25   +2       4.51    79.21     2.16    67.20     8.68     1.68     2.72    11.30    34.80    16.13P    0.61R    0.15  
Exeter               15   24   +3       1.79    62.79     0.57    69.63     8.71     7.75     5.12    17.61    46.17    24.60P    0.30R    0.07  
Burton_Albion        15   24   +2       3.96    76.13     2.82    67.80     8.78     3.80     3.27    12.89    37.77    18.00P    0.67R    0.20  
Scunthorpe           15   24   +0       0.57    53.99    -4.24    71.92     8.99     8.04     8.52    25.40    55.78    33.73P    0.20R    0.07  
Southend             15   23   +4      -0.16    49.10     0.15    71.04     8.66    12.11     6.67    22.14    53.51    31.14P    0.19R    0.05  
Newport_County       15   23   +3       5.92    85.62     8.46    56.76     8.64   -10.63     0.21     1.22     6.53     2.01P    9.10R    3.50  
Dag_&_Red            15   23   +2       3.00    70.77     2.79    63.65     8.67    -0.77     1.25     5.91    21.72     9.15P    1.81R    0.52  
Wycombe              14   21   +3       0.93    57.42     1.66    65.26     8.90     3.62     2.16     8.59    28.41    13.06P    1.29R    0.39  
Hartlepool           15   21   +2      -2.18    35.02    -1.85    68.07     8.96     8.81     3.96    14.61    40.51    22.13P    0.57R    0.15  
Mansfield            15   21   +0       3.23    72.72     3.91    58.60     8.81    -6.90     0.34     1.92     9.52     3.40P    6.23R    2.44  
AFC_Wimbledon        15   21   -2       3.90    76.86     3.24    57.67     8.40   -10.86     0.17     1.16     6.90     2.06P    7.23R    2.59  
Portsmouth           14   20   +1      -3.75    24.58    -5.85    74.53     9.27    17.31    14.91    37.62    67.68    47.44P    0.11R    0.03  
Plymouth             15   18   -5      -0.28    48.94    -2.35    55.51     8.20   -10.85     0.06     0.52     4.00     1.20P   10.42R    4.06  
Cheltenham           15   17   -6      -3.23    28.64    -5.45    58.40     8.61    -7.66     0.26     1.64     8.63     3.26P    6.41R    2.40  
York                 15   16   -3      -1.76    38.20     1.07    53.01     8.42   -10.96     0.06     0.34     2.55     0.74P   17.42R    7.80  
Bristol_Rovers       15   14   -6      -4.39    21.37    -3.03    52.17     8.50   -12.37     0.04     0.26     2.20     0.62P   20.65R    9.51  
Torquay              15   14   -8      -4.90    18.84    -5.54    53.15     8.46   -12.80     0.03     0.30     2.59     0.81P   17.67R    7.90  
Bury                 15   13   -4      -8.13     7.29    -4.79    57.08     9.03    -1.49     0.24     1.44     7.86     3.31P    9.11R    3.73  
Accrington_Stanley   15   11  -10      -5.65    14.16    -4.45    45.32     8.24   -21.81     0.00     0.02     0.25     0.07P   51.21R   32.88  
Northampton          15   10   -9      -9.00     4.51    -6.80    47.71     8.46   -16.00     0.00     0.06     0.68     0.18P   38.48R   21.48  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Alfreton_Town 3 0 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    17   38  +18      10.23    96.58    11.30    85.23     7.87    29.56    34.46    89.12    47.14P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    17   32  +10       1.84    61.99    -0.82    81.77     7.88    25.73    19.65    78.78    36.51P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            17   31  +14       2.23    65.13     5.15    81.79     7.94    31.15    20.29    79.69    37.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          17   30   +8       1.12    57.32    -0.39    78.71     7.88    21.95    10.43    66.30    25.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        17   30   +6       7.31    89.15     6.93    67.83     8.50     3.02     1.02    17.49     3.62P    0.55R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   17   29   +9       4.74    79.12     7.45    69.13     7.96     9.41     1.08    20.96     4.54P    0.18R    0.00  
Barnet           17   28   +8      -1.89    36.90    -2.31    78.14     8.06    24.19    10.62    64.14    27.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          17   28   +5       5.85    82.93     7.00    66.78     8.34     3.00     0.63    14.64     2.83P    0.66R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    17   28   +2       6.02    84.83     4.56    66.21     8.08    -1.33     0.46    12.02     2.03P    0.67R    0.00  
Nuneaton         17   27   +0       5.67    83.80     3.21    63.00     7.78    -5.90     0.13     5.58     0.88P    1.48R    0.01  
Gateshead        17   26   +4       1.99    63.50     2.96    66.08     7.98     4.57     0.37    12.03     2.47P    0.59R    0.01  
Halifax          17   25   +0       4.32    76.93     5.04    60.78     8.46    -7.10     0.09     4.47     0.75P    3.86R    0.06  
Lincoln_City     17   22   +0      -0.06    50.10     1.81    61.18     7.97    -0.70     0.07     4.29     0.77P    2.60R    0.03  
Macclesfield     17   22   -1      -2.05    36.47    -2.06    61.12     7.93    -1.99     0.10     3.94     0.78P    2.57R    0.03  
Forest_Green     17   21   +1      -4.23    23.06    -2.13    63.16     8.08     4.59     0.13     6.75     1.47P    1.64R    0.02  
Southport        17   21   -5       0.60    55.09    -0.38    56.39     7.76   -12.74     0.01     0.95     0.16P    8.91R    0.15  
Wrexham          17   19   -3      -8.38     7.05    -9.59    65.19     7.94     6.75     0.30    10.05     2.95P    0.82R    0.01  
Dartford         17   18  -10      -2.59    32.98    -5.49    52.33     7.91   -18.72     0.00     0.28     0.05P   20.84R    0.64  
Hereford         17   17   -6      -7.03    11.48    -7.11    57.65     7.88    -4.49     0.02     1.46     0.32P    6.43R    0.10  
Tamworth         17   17   -9      -1.14    42.99    -1.20    49.82     7.64   -19.96     0.00     0.08     0.01P   30.46R    1.34  
Woking           17   14  -10      -5.76    15.75    -3.86    45.89     7.68   -23.61     0.00     0.03     0.01P   51.62R    3.35  
Chester          17   14  -13      -1.65    39.63    -1.13    43.23     7.84   -29.15     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.71R    7.62  
Aldershot        17   13   +2      -5.08    19.35    -5.27    63.15     8.05    17.97     0.14     6.94     2.39P    1.68R    0.02  
Hyde_United      17    3  -30     -11.57     0.53   -13.66    28.24     7.25   -56.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.72R   86.62  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10