Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 5 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 November 2013, Cardiff 1 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          10   25  +13       4.63    87.05     2.44    77.27     7.71    35.30    31.53    54.11    71.48    83.95    96.61     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          10   20   +8       1.46    62.97     0.49    73.66     7.58    31.52    15.45    34.93    54.20    71.44    92.74     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        10   20   +7       2.07    68.51     0.55    68.30     7.73    21.92     4.94    13.45    26.13    42.37    77.67     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        10   20   +4       2.95    75.57    -0.88    65.07     7.83    13.87     2.17     6.78    14.61    26.40    62.03     0.00R    0.00  
Man_City         10   19  +17      -1.89    30.80     5.14    77.19     7.35    49.76    32.21    56.65    74.00    85.71    97.17     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      10   19   +7       4.79    87.44     6.41    54.45     7.71     2.39     0.09     0.36     1.16     2.96    13.87     0.54R    0.00  
Everton          10   19   +4       3.07    76.33     0.85    63.49     7.76    13.00     1.40     4.57    10.49    19.99    53.68     0.02R    0.00  
Man_Utd          10   17   +4      -2.17    29.36    -5.03    72.33     7.63    31.37    12.20    29.00    47.40    65.26    90.01     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        10   14   -2       1.95    68.55     1.16    48.52     7.78    -9.30     0.01     0.04     0.17     0.55     3.86     4.12R    0.23  
Hull             10   14   -2       4.10    85.21     3.88    41.07     7.27   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.34    19.69R    1.58  
West_Brom        10   13   +0       0.02    50.94     1.25    49.61     7.76    -3.19     0.01     0.06     0.19     0.64     4.94     2.92R    0.06  
Cardiff          10   12   -4       1.70    67.14     1.05    41.87     7.62   -17.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.57    18.23R    1.72  
Swansea          10   11   +0      -1.59    36.24     1.51    46.57     7.62    -4.58     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.23     2.25     6.05R    0.29  
Aston_Villa      10   11   -3       0.61    57.26     2.28    45.35     7.61    -9.73     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.15     1.50     8.28R    0.51  
West_Ham         10   10   +0      -2.53    28.14     1.59    44.51     7.51    -6.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12     1.11     9.34R    0.68  
Fulham           10   10   -5      -2.51    28.35    -2.95    44.13     7.56   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     1.09    10.91R    0.65  
Stoke            10    9   -4      -2.12    30.30    -0.28    41.72     7.35   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.46    16.88R    1.23  
Norwich          10    8  -14      -1.39    37.45    -6.37    36.70     7.45   -30.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    43.30R    6.97  
Sunderland       10    4  -15      -6.42     4.83   -10.11    32.51     7.19   -31.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    65.35R   14.42  
Crystal_Palace   10    3  -15      -3.86    13.46    -2.98    23.59     6.77   -45.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.38R   71.64  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Birmingham 0 1 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         14   33  +17       9.64    96.86    10.74    85.72     8.77    30.60    31.34    52.95    90.58    61.96P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       14   32  +11       7.57    92.92     2.97    85.23     8.69    25.27    28.14    49.68    89.68    60.10P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             14   31   +9       7.43    92.44     2.63    83.33     8.76    21.46    20.46    40.37    84.75    52.61P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       14   27   +6       5.63    85.27     2.62    75.46     8.63    13.06     4.55    12.35    56.43    22.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Reading         14   23   +5      -0.48    46.24    -1.55    74.47     9.21    16.91     4.71    12.23    52.96    23.57P    0.08R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   14   23   +5       1.96    64.68     2.13    68.52     8.72     7.63     0.97     3.17    26.71     8.18P    0.32R    0.00  
Watford         14   22   +7      -0.60    45.55     1.55    74.58     8.92    20.75     4.45    12.06    54.32    23.18P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds_United    14   20   +2       1.01    58.20     2.26    63.48     8.81     1.43     0.20     0.85    12.44     3.20P    1.54R    0.14  
Blackburn       14   19   +4      -1.44    39.58     2.12    66.28     8.79     9.36     0.53     1.95    19.77     6.02P    0.66R    0.06  
Wigan           13   19   +4      -2.68    29.87    -1.82    73.43     9.26    18.11     3.59     9.90    49.11    21.36P    0.12R    0.01  
Derby           14   19   +3      -0.11    49.65     3.27    65.82     8.91     7.40     0.43     1.74    18.56     5.37P    0.94R    0.08  
Brighton        14   18   +1      -3.28    26.91    -2.19    66.52     8.54     8.19     0.37     1.65    19.81     6.30P    0.54R    0.03  
Ipswich         14   17   +2      -1.34    40.53     3.26    58.81     8.68    -1.05     0.05     0.23     4.84     1.16P    4.68R    0.55  
Huddersfield    14   17   +2      -0.64    45.96     4.33    57.34     8.65    -3.27     0.03     0.14     3.31     0.74P    6.62R    0.83  
Bournemouth     14   17   -9       2.31    68.10    -0.97    50.08     8.72   -27.69     0.00     0.02     0.55     0.09P   27.65R    6.09  
Middlesbrough   14   15   +1      -4.51    19.61     0.43    57.10     8.88    -2.16     0.03     0.15     3.70     0.89P    7.08R    0.88  
Charlton        13   14   -4      -3.00    27.84    -2.88    59.04     8.80    -3.78     0.07     0.24     4.97     1.31P    4.86R    0.53  
Millwall        14   14  -11      -2.08    35.25    -6.32    50.45     8.50   -22.76     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.08P   25.01R    5.04  
Bolton          14   13   -7      -6.34    11.21    -7.32    58.09     8.84    -5.21     0.06     0.23     4.20     1.10P    6.18R    0.74  
Doncaster       13   12  -11      -0.39    48.78    -2.38    46.04     8.79   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   44.98R   14.09  
Sheff_Wed       13   11   -3      -5.35    13.88    -0.82    50.83     8.88   -11.33     0.00     0.02     0.76     0.15P   22.93R    4.55  
Birmingham      14   11   -7      -7.38     7.45    -5.65    54.88     8.76    -6.86     0.00     0.06     1.87     0.42P   11.37R    1.85  
Barnsley        14   10  -15      -3.67    23.92    -5.74    43.39     8.42   -32.63     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   57.53R   21.12  
Yeovil          14    9  -12      -2.96    28.37    -0.65    38.65     8.22   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   76.83R   43.42  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 November 2013, Bristol_City 2 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   15   38  +24      11.95    98.87    15.63    89.75     8.73    37.99    22.37    53.02    96.84    63.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   15   36  +19       6.11    87.24     4.80    96.23     8.60    46.54    55.45    80.30    99.33    87.03P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    15   32  +13       3.95    75.36     1.54    88.54     8.74    34.97    18.26    46.43    95.25    61.64P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         15   27   +7       4.87    81.12     4.69    73.64     8.67    13.12     0.71     3.57    51.27    13.07P    0.13R    0.00  
Brentford       15   27   +3       3.61    74.05    -1.13    72.70     8.55     7.75     0.54     2.92    45.76    11.68P    0.17R    0.01  
Bradford        15   23  +10       3.62    74.23    11.74    60.59     8.82     2.31     0.01     0.17     8.50     1.54P    6.12R    0.60  
Swindon         15   23   +9      -3.39    26.42     0.03    76.93     8.68    26.32     1.66     7.79    67.77    26.18P    0.04R    0.00  
MK_Dons         15   22   +4      -2.61    31.95    -2.22    71.77     8.78    14.74     0.45     2.46    43.63    12.84P    0.32R    0.00  
Walsall         15   22   +2       1.24    59.40     1.77    66.35     8.70     4.73     0.10     0.54    20.79     4.26P    1.37R    0.09  
Rotherham       15   21   -1       4.03    77.16     5.01    56.50     8.77   -13.20     0.01     0.03     3.19     0.48P   15.12R    2.11  
Coventry        15   20  +12       4.97    80.84     5.15    71.29     8.83    25.74     0.41     2.52    43.16    13.07P    0.35R    0.02  
Port_Vale       15   20   -3       2.49    67.93     2.24    58.81     9.00    -9.64     0.01     0.10     5.83     0.94P   10.23R    1.39  
Crawley_Town    15   19   -4       0.23    52.62    -0.94    56.71     8.55   -11.71     0.00     0.02     3.18     0.52P   13.61R    1.87  
Colchester      15   17   -5      -0.05    50.84     0.35    53.92     8.42   -13.68     0.00     0.01     1.51     0.21P   21.86R    3.57  
Shrewsbury      15   16   -1      -2.23    34.85     2.39    56.44     8.46    -3.89     0.00     0.01     2.81     0.53P   13.28R    1.84  
Carlisle        15   16  -12       0.20    53.02    -4.10    49.58     8.36   -27.60     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.04P   41.18R   10.19  
Oldham          15   15   -4      -2.48    32.98     0.82    51.55     8.37   -12.95     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.10P   30.06R    5.79  
Gillingham      15   15   -6      -2.16    35.99    -0.47    50.10     8.67   -17.54     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.12P   37.62R    8.88  
Stevenage       15   14   -8      -3.39    26.68    -3.13    51.23     8.47   -15.94     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.10P   32.06R    6.67  
Bristol_City    15   13   -4      -8.64     6.41    -5.25    57.79     9.11    -0.90     0.01     0.07     5.09     1.22P   11.87R    1.62  
Tranmere        15   13  -14      -4.84    19.09    -9.93    50.23     8.48   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.08P   37.65R    8.54  
Crewe           15   13  -19      -1.47    40.35    -8.74    42.62     8.06   -40.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    73.49R   35.45  
Sheff_Utd       15   12  -10      -9.23     4.39   -10.96    56.17     8.60    -7.46     0.00     0.01     2.70     0.66P   14.79R    2.07  
Notts_County    15   10  -12      -9.04     4.51    -9.30    49.71     8.69   -16.81     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.08P   38.69R    9.30  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Fleetwood_Town       15   28  +10       6.09    86.05     7.96    73.63     8.69    14.62    11.08    31.86    64.38    39.00P    0.06R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           15   26  +10       3.28    72.32     6.83    73.81     8.58    17.90    11.45    33.23    65.90    41.57P    0.04R    0.02  
Chesterfield         15   26   +7       1.68    61.76     1.51    76.84     8.62    19.13    19.39    46.20    77.29    55.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             15   26   +4       3.53    73.22     1.18    71.61     8.85     8.49     7.74    23.90    54.62    30.96P    0.15R    0.03  
Morecambe            15   25   +2       4.45    79.21     2.05    67.35     8.67     1.86     3.03    11.65    34.94    16.44P    0.54R    0.17  
Exeter               15   24   +3       1.65    61.92     0.37    69.82     8.69     7.98     5.23    18.20    46.70    25.38P    0.31R    0.07  
Burton_Albion        15   24   +2       3.87    75.60     2.71    67.90     8.74     3.95     3.24    12.58    37.76    18.08P    0.54R    0.13  
Scunthorpe           15   24   +0       0.56    53.96    -4.27    71.88     8.98     7.95     8.34    25.00    55.57    33.29P    0.18R    0.04  
Southend             15   23   +4      -0.16    49.29     0.17    71.10     8.66    12.30     6.67    22.16    53.59    31.01P    0.16R    0.04  
Newport_County       15   23   +3       5.99    86.12     8.62    56.70     8.67   -10.83     0.21     1.20     6.58     2.04P    9.17R    3.47  
Dag_&_Red            15   23   +2       2.91    70.22     2.62    63.81     8.59    -0.55     1.10     5.61    22.02     8.94P    1.54R    0.45  
Wycombe              14   21   +3       0.98    57.49     1.73    65.14     8.98     3.46     2.17     8.65    27.90    12.89P    1.36R    0.37  
Hartlepool           15   21   +2      -2.27    34.71    -1.97    68.02     9.01     8.83     3.96    14.41    39.97    21.66P    0.62R    0.17  
Mansfield            15   21   +0       3.20    72.48     3.87    58.62     8.70    -6.88     0.31     1.90     9.29     3.29P    5.98R    2.23  
AFC_Wimbledon        15   21   -2       3.86    76.71     3.19    57.68     8.43   -10.81     0.20     1.15     6.94     2.16P    7.17R    2.50  
Portsmouth           14   20   +1      -3.80    24.66    -5.90    74.62     9.31    17.47    15.21    37.70    68.06    47.70P    0.10R    0.02  
Plymouth             15   18   -5      -0.33    48.54    -2.38    55.57     8.26   -10.80     0.08     0.54     4.14     1.31P   10.37R    4.01  
Cheltenham           15   17   -6      -3.22    28.82    -5.44    58.32     8.65    -7.76     0.23     1.59     8.58     3.24P    6.47R    2.45  
York                 15   16   -3      -1.63    39.23     1.26    52.84     8.41   -11.22     0.04     0.29     2.33     0.67P   17.75R    7.99  
Bristol_Rovers       15   14   -6      -4.23    22.25    -2.79    51.94     8.59   -12.71     0.04     0.27     2.22     0.69P   21.20R   10.03  
Torquay              15   14   -8      -4.88    18.77    -5.48    53.22     8.50   -12.70     0.05     0.38     2.65     0.89P   17.48R    7.75  
Bury                 15   13   -4      -8.09     7.19    -4.73    57.02     9.03    -1.61     0.22     1.45     7.72     3.21P    9.30R    3.70  
Accrington_Stanley   15   11  -10      -5.66    14.33    -4.40    45.24     8.22   -22.02     0.00     0.02     0.23     0.05P   51.13R   32.70  
Northampton          15   10   -9      -8.93     4.53    -6.71    47.67     8.44   -16.05     0.01     0.08     0.61     0.18P   38.38R   21.65  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Alfreton_Town 3 0 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    17   38  +18      10.44    96.92    11.64    84.88     7.93    29.06    33.05    88.12    45.77P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    17   32  +10       1.63    60.48    -1.21    82.08     7.93    26.23    20.65    79.72    37.85P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            17   31  +14       2.12    64.25     4.98    81.93     7.95    31.40    20.95    79.82    37.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          17   30   +8       1.16    57.84    -0.35    78.59     7.93    21.77    10.32    65.92    25.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        17   30   +6       7.40    89.58     7.05    67.82     8.44     3.04     0.93    17.59     3.52P    0.52R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   17   29   +9       4.67    78.90     7.33    69.22     7.97     9.52     1.16    21.46     4.55P    0.20R    0.00  
Barnet           17   28   +8      -1.76    37.97    -2.09    77.92     8.18    23.85    10.39    62.78    26.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          17   28   +5       5.86    82.98     7.02    66.75     8.42     2.94     0.65    14.91     2.93P    0.76R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    17   28   +2       6.00    84.87     4.55    66.24     8.13    -1.26     0.47    12.16     2.16P    0.67R    0.00  
Nuneaton         17   27   +0       5.70    83.92     3.28    62.98     7.84    -5.98     0.14     5.63     0.84P    1.68R    0.02  
Gateshead        17   26   +4       2.02    63.59     2.97    66.09     7.91     4.59     0.35    11.99     2.37P    0.56R    0.01  
Halifax          17   25   +0       4.21    76.60     4.86    60.94     8.49    -6.86     0.12     4.61     0.82P    3.86R    0.10  
Lincoln_City     17   22   +0      -0.05    50.27     1.84    61.05     7.98    -0.84     0.08     4.01     0.75P    2.71R    0.04  
Macclesfield     17   22   -1      -1.94    37.28    -1.91    60.87     7.93    -2.34     0.07     3.76     0.82P    2.78R    0.04  
Forest_Green     17   21   +1      -4.19    23.52    -2.04    63.04     8.13     4.42     0.17     6.94     1.67P    1.75R    0.02  
Southport        17   21   -5       0.65    55.23    -0.29    56.28     7.77   -12.95     0.01     0.93     0.16P    9.28R    0.19  
Wrexham          17   19   -3      -8.49     6.88    -9.72    65.32     8.04     6.92     0.33    10.60     3.15P    0.81R    0.00  
Dartford         17   18  -10      -2.53    33.24    -5.41    52.27     7.82   -18.83     0.00     0.27     0.03P   20.65R    0.67  
Hereford         17   17   -6      -7.08    11.36    -7.21    57.77     7.86    -4.32     0.01     1.54     0.35P    6.31R    0.09  
Tamworth         17   17   -9      -1.10    43.36    -1.16    49.73     7.62   -20.03     0.00     0.11     0.01P   31.04R    1.56  
Woking           17   14  -10      -5.80    15.57    -3.92    46.08     7.72   -23.38     0.00     0.01     0.00    50.31R    3.45  
Chester          17   14  -13      -1.73    39.35    -1.15    43.27     7.89   -29.17     0.00     0.01     0.00P   65.73R    7.81  
Aldershot        17   13   +2      -5.09    19.43    -5.29    63.24     8.09    18.11     0.15     7.09     2.53P    1.69R    0.03  
Hyde_United      17    3  -30     -11.64     0.54   -13.79    28.37     7.37   -55.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.67R   85.97  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10