Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 4 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 November 2013, Cardiff 1 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          10   25  +13       4.63    86.73     2.43    77.21     7.74    35.27    30.90    54.10    71.20    83.63    96.62     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          10   20   +8       1.54    64.01     0.64    73.37     7.69    31.02    15.05    33.57    52.82    69.97    92.25     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        10   20   +7       2.12    68.87     0.68    68.28     7.78    21.83     4.87    13.66    26.58    42.91    77.39     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham        10   20   +4       2.95    75.45    -0.87    65.10     7.83    13.90     2.19     6.91    14.81    26.72    62.10     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City         10   19  +17      -1.96    30.22     5.11    77.31     7.43    50.00    33.49    57.91    74.78    86.09    97.15     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      10   19   +7       4.82    87.51     6.44    54.50     7.71     2.49     0.10     0.40     1.19     3.02    14.31     0.56R    0.01  
Everton          10   19   +4       3.09    76.13     0.88    63.38     7.82    12.89     1.39     4.68    10.65    20.20    53.20     0.02R    0.00  
Man_Utd          10   17   +4      -2.18    29.30    -5.03    72.29     7.61    31.23    12.00    28.59    47.32    65.41    90.08     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        10   14   -2       1.91    68.03     1.11    48.47     7.78    -9.35     0.00     0.05     0.16     0.53     3.80     4.11R    0.26  
Hull             10   14   -2       4.07    85.56     3.82    41.01     7.28   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.36    20.10R    1.69  
West_Brom        10   13   +0      -0.07    49.97     1.13    49.83     7.79    -2.93     0.01     0.08     0.25     0.81     5.51     2.63R    0.09  
Cardiff          10   12   -4       1.70    67.04     1.05    41.92     7.61   -17.62     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.05     0.62    17.99R    1.63  
Swansea          10   11   +0      -1.61    36.29     1.47    46.71     7.59    -4.37     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.26     2.30     5.65R    0.27  
Aston_Villa      10   11   -3       0.57    56.96     2.20    45.47     7.65    -9.56     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.14     1.57     8.25R    0.61  
West_Ham         10   10   +0      -2.51    28.09     1.57    44.55     7.56    -6.07     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.13     1.20     9.53R    0.67  
Fulham           10   10   -5      -2.49    28.57    -2.92    43.99     7.57   -12.35     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.09     1.03    11.17R    0.68  
Stoke            10    9   -4      -2.13    30.12    -0.30    41.80     7.36   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.43    16.73R    1.17  
Norwich          10    8  -14      -1.38    37.89    -6.37    36.79     7.39   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    42.79R    6.29  
Sunderland       10    4  -15      -6.36     4.81   -10.00    32.36     7.17   -31.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.16R   14.74  
Crystal_Palace   10    3  -15      -3.87    13.34    -3.03    23.57     6.77   -46.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.30R   71.88  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Birmingham 0 1 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         14   33  +17       9.56    96.79    10.60    85.95     8.72    30.96    31.76    53.98    91.23    62.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       14   32  +11       7.49    92.71     2.86    85.33     8.68    25.42    28.30    49.88    89.87    60.47P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             14   31   +9       7.46    92.54     2.66    83.23     8.77    21.32    19.79    39.56    84.72    51.94P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       14   27   +6       5.61    85.08     2.62    75.51     8.71    13.18     4.80    12.38    56.33    22.18P    0.03R    0.00  
Reading         14   23   +5      -0.45    46.64    -1.47    74.37     9.13    16.83     4.43    11.83    52.30    23.00P    0.07R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   14   23   +5       1.95    64.87     2.14    68.63     8.71     7.77     0.95     3.16    26.88     8.22P    0.30R    0.02  
Watford         14   22   +7      -0.59    45.56     1.54    74.57     8.92    20.70     4.37    11.87    54.33    23.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds_United    14   20   +2       0.98    57.88     2.21    63.49     8.75     1.46     0.20     0.90    12.26     3.11P    1.51R    0.12  
Blackburn       14   19   +4      -1.53    38.78     2.01    66.35     8.77     9.50     0.44     1.69    20.05     5.87P    0.63R    0.05  
Wigan           13   19   +4      -2.61    30.50    -1.73    73.28     9.35    17.87     3.69    10.13    48.07    21.32P    0.11R    0.00  
Derby           14   19   +3      -0.12    49.75     3.26    65.88     8.93     7.47     0.51     1.75    18.98     5.33P    0.97R    0.09  
Brighton        14   18   +1      -3.39    26.12    -2.32    66.70     8.61     8.47     0.52     1.87    20.49     6.69P    0.54R    0.03  
Ipswich         14   17   +2      -1.28    41.23     3.36    58.70     8.75    -1.21     0.07     0.21     4.80     1.07P    5.06R    0.57  
Huddersfield    14   17   +2      -0.55    46.55     4.48    56.98     8.59    -3.80     0.02     0.12     3.07     0.64P    6.81R    0.87  
Bournemouth     14   17   -9       2.38    68.60    -0.87    49.96     8.73   -28.01     0.00     0.01     0.54     0.08P   28.45R    6.22  
Middlesbrough   14   15   +1      -4.45    19.94     0.58    56.86     8.90    -2.59     0.03     0.16     3.53     0.82P    7.58R    1.04  
Charlton        13   14   -4      -2.92    28.49    -2.81    58.90     8.82    -3.98     0.06     0.23     4.77     1.18P    5.17R    0.64  
Millwall        14   14  -11      -2.12    34.99    -6.35    50.39     8.45   -22.84     0.00     0.02     0.46     0.09P   25.23R    5.06  
Bolton          14   13   -7      -6.40    10.99    -7.42    58.34     8.83    -4.82     0.03     0.18     4.32     1.17P    5.92R    0.66  
Doncaster       13   12  -11      -0.44    48.38    -2.50    46.19     8.82   -28.09     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   44.14R   13.78  
Sheff_Wed       13   11   -3      -5.32    14.14    -0.77    50.87     8.80   -11.28     0.00     0.01     0.81     0.17P   22.70R    4.61  
Birmingham      14   11   -7      -7.26     7.66    -5.48    54.74     8.81    -7.09     0.01     0.05     1.88     0.45P   11.93R    1.95  
Barnsley        14   10  -15      -3.72    23.53    -5.89    43.58     8.46   -32.31     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   56.45R   20.68  
Yeovil          14    9  -12      -3.00    28.07    -0.71    38.74     8.32   -34.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    76.35R   43.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Bristol_City 1 1 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   15   38  +24      11.93    98.84    15.58    89.89     8.72    38.21    20.01    52.51    96.80    63.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   14   35  +19       6.98    91.73     5.63    98.02     8.69    48.64    61.43    84.11    99.53    89.51P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    15   32  +13       3.96    75.24     1.54    88.45     8.83    34.80    15.49    44.68    94.99    60.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         15   27   +7       4.85    80.70     4.70    73.73     8.71    13.29     0.59     3.65    51.61    13.11P    0.14R    0.00  
Brentford       15   27   +3       3.56    73.71    -1.21    72.66     8.65     7.74     0.43     2.75    46.13    11.77P    0.18R    0.01  
Bradford        15   23  +10       3.58    74.03    11.68    60.66     8.66     2.46     0.02     0.14     8.24     1.33P    5.46R    0.41  
Swindon         15   23   +9      -3.27    27.04     0.23    76.64     8.70    25.84     1.29     6.95    66.77    24.96P    0.04R    0.00  
MK_Dons         15   22   +4      -2.55    32.18    -2.08    71.52     8.78    14.35     0.33     2.12    42.49    12.15P    0.33R    0.02  
Walsall         15   22   +2       1.21    59.26     1.75    66.35     8.62     4.76     0.03     0.53    20.47     4.46P    1.33R    0.07  
Rotherham       15   21   -1       4.06    77.05     5.05    56.44     8.90   -13.25     0.00     0.05     3.43     0.49P   15.50R    2.16  
Coventry        15   20  +12       4.93    80.96     5.08    71.46     8.80    26.00     0.36     2.33    44.29    13.73P    0.35R    0.01  
Port_Vale       15   20   -3       2.54    68.24     2.33    58.72     8.98    -9.80     0.00     0.06     5.72     0.86P   10.20R    1.25  
Crawley_Town    14   19   -2       1.04    58.49     0.19    58.50     8.87    -9.20     0.01     0.05     5.37     0.91P   10.29R    1.31  
Colchester      15   17   -5       0.03    51.59     0.49    53.70     8.36   -14.00     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.21P   21.93R    3.54  
Shrewsbury      15   16   -1      -2.25    34.88     2.36    56.39     8.48    -3.91     0.00     0.02     2.78     0.46P   13.30R    1.79  
Oldham          15   15   -4      -2.55    32.47     0.74    51.63     8.35   -12.86     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.14P   29.35R    5.40  
Gillingham      15   15   -6      -2.12    35.96    -0.43    49.95     8.65   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.09P   37.85R    9.06  
Carlisle        14   15  -12       0.04    51.82    -5.06    48.81     8.48   -29.47     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.03P   44.53R   12.02  
Stevenage       15   14   -8      -3.37    27.15    -3.12    51.46     8.43   -15.64     0.00     0.01     0.72     0.10P   30.57R    5.85  
Tranmere        15   13  -14      -4.88    18.57    -9.98    50.37     8.38   -22.05     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.10P   36.10R    8.11  
Crewe           15   13  -19      -1.43    40.71    -8.74    42.56     8.00   -40.68     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00    73.59R   34.88  
Sheff_Utd       15   12  -10      -9.36     4.11   -11.17    56.41     8.59    -7.10     0.00     0.01     2.87     0.66P   13.64R    1.86  
Bristol_City    14   10   -6      -9.52     3.87    -6.07    55.59     9.47    -3.91     0.00     0.04     3.56     0.77P   18.01R    3.39  
Notts_County    15   10  -12      -9.12     4.25    -9.48    49.89     8.65   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09P   37.30R    8.86  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Fleetwood_Town       15   28  +10       6.02    86.01     7.86    73.74     8.72    14.83    11.28    32.10    64.71    39.48P    0.06R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd           15   26  +10       3.29    72.20     6.83    73.79     8.63    17.91    11.62    32.70    66.00    41.16P    0.05R    0.01  
Chesterfield         15   26   +7       1.68    61.94     1.51    76.74     8.62    18.98    18.85    45.70    77.00    54.89P    0.04R    0.01  
Rochdale             15   26   +4       3.52    73.39     1.19    71.55     8.85     8.45     7.46    23.74    54.01    30.77P    0.16R    0.02  
Morecambe            15   25   +2       4.44    79.01     2.07    67.24     8.70     1.69     2.81    11.26    34.54    16.10P    0.62R    0.18  
Exeter               15   24   +3       1.71    62.41     0.47    69.69     8.75     7.76     5.06    17.77    46.34    24.81P    0.29R    0.07  
Burton_Albion        15   24   +2       3.97    76.20     2.84    67.80     8.76     3.80     3.14    12.57    37.28    17.81P    0.56R    0.17  
Scunthorpe           15   24   +0       0.50    53.57    -4.36    72.04     9.11     8.20     8.74    25.82    56.10    34.24P    0.21R    0.04  
Southend             15   23   +4      -0.16    48.80     0.15    71.15     8.64    12.33     6.56    22.26    53.77    31.05P    0.16R    0.03  
Newport_County       15   23   +3       6.10    86.59     8.74    56.45     8.65   -11.15     0.15     1.12     6.21     1.84P    9.46R    3.70  
Dag_&_Red            15   23   +2       2.89    70.29     2.63    63.80     8.63    -0.53     1.27     5.83    21.98     9.21P    1.53R    0.45  
Wycombe              14   21   +3       0.92    57.13     1.64    65.24     8.93     3.57     2.09     8.59    28.31    13.00P    1.23R    0.42  
Hartlepool           15   21   +2      -2.26    34.76    -1.98    68.17     9.08     8.95     4.10    14.87    40.75    22.31P    0.61R    0.20  
Mansfield            15   21   +0       3.19    72.59     3.88    58.72     8.68    -6.75     0.31     1.81     9.42     3.24P    5.87R    2.23  
AFC_Wimbledon        15   21   -2       3.96    77.14     3.36    57.51     8.48   -11.11     0.16     1.06     6.72     1.98P    7.73R    2.91  
Portsmouth           14   20   +1      -3.85    24.50    -5.96    74.82     9.33    17.81    15.82    38.41    68.61    48.10P    0.09R    0.03  
Plymouth             15   18   -5      -0.25    49.26    -2.29    55.59     8.18   -10.79     0.07     0.53     3.81     1.21P   10.23R    3.92  
Cheltenham           15   17   -6      -3.21    28.82    -5.44    58.29     8.63    -7.85     0.19     1.47     8.59     3.14P    6.59R    2.32  
York                 15   16   -3      -1.64    39.18     1.26    52.79     8.38   -11.35     0.03     0.30     2.35     0.66P   17.76R    7.89  
Bristol_Rovers       15   14   -6      -4.26    22.12    -2.84    51.90     8.48   -12.76     0.01     0.26     1.95     0.60P   21.26R    9.80  
Torquay              15   14   -8      -4.85    19.16    -5.46    53.15     8.54   -12.83     0.04     0.34     2.55     0.78P   17.63R    8.08  
Bury                 15   13   -4      -8.18     7.15    -4.91    57.35     8.98    -1.12     0.22     1.40     8.20     3.35P    8.35R    3.47  
Accrington_Stanley   15   11  -10      -5.67    14.26    -4.42    45.25     8.25   -21.93     0.00     0.02     0.22     0.06P   51.06R   32.66  
Northampton          15   10   -9      -8.97     4.63    -6.78    47.65     8.44   -16.12     0.01     0.05     0.58     0.18P   38.44R   21.37  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 November 2013, Alfreton_Town 3 0 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    17   38  +18      10.34    96.73    11.46    85.00     7.89    29.17    33.25    88.45    46.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    17   32  +10       1.68    61.15    -1.05    82.04     7.91    26.21    20.40    79.80    37.71P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            17   31  +14       2.06    63.71     4.93    81.84     8.01    31.24    20.55    79.47    37.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          17   30   +8       1.19    57.69    -0.27    78.57     7.88    21.73    10.37    65.66    25.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        17   30   +6       7.37    89.37     7.01    67.86     8.47     2.99     1.05    17.51     3.58P    0.43R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   17   29   +9       4.68    78.85     7.39    69.19     7.95     9.54     1.16    21.05     4.63P    0.16R    0.00  
Barnet           17   28   +8      -1.90    36.98    -2.34    78.15     8.11    24.19    10.69    64.32    27.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Welling          17   28   +5       5.93    83.18     7.14    66.62     8.44     2.76     0.64    14.64     2.92P    0.79R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town    17   28   +2       6.05    85.18     4.63    66.16     8.05    -1.37     0.46    11.81     2.06P    0.63R    0.01  
Nuneaton         17   27   +0       5.71    83.75     3.25    62.96     7.82    -6.00     0.11     5.52     0.86P    1.60R    0.01  
Gateshead        17   26   +4       2.04    64.03     3.05    66.03     7.96     4.49     0.37    11.83     2.36P    0.59R    0.01  
Halifax          17   25   +0       4.27    76.86     4.98    60.87     8.49    -6.97     0.11     4.50     0.73P    3.84R    0.06  
Lincoln_City     17   22   +0      -0.14    49.61     1.67    61.24     8.01    -0.59     0.07     4.27     0.78P    2.67R    0.02  
Macclesfield     17   22   -1      -2.01    36.58    -1.97    61.09     7.95    -2.05     0.11     3.93     0.78P    2.73R    0.03  
Forest_Green     17   21   +1      -4.20    23.33    -2.08    63.13     8.14     4.51     0.18     6.79     1.66P    1.81R    0.01  
Southport        17   21   -5       0.57    54.52    -0.41    56.49     7.85   -12.59     0.01     1.03     0.18P    9.03R    0.17  
Wrexham          17   19   -3      -8.40     6.88    -9.62    65.34     8.03     6.93     0.34    10.67     3.14P    0.80R    0.01  
Dartford         17   18  -10      -2.50    33.64    -5.39    52.26     7.86   -18.84     0.00     0.21     0.03P   20.98R    0.66  
Hereford         17   17   -6      -7.01    11.51    -7.09    57.58     7.90    -4.58     0.01     1.42     0.30P    6.49R    0.11  
Tamworth         17   17   -9      -1.04    43.56    -1.11    49.81     7.59   -20.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   30.43R    1.31  
Woking           17   14  -10      -5.74    15.88    -3.86    45.95     7.65   -23.56     0.00     0.02     0.00P   51.00R    3.19  
Chester          17   14  -13      -1.81    38.69    -1.35    43.29     7.79   -28.93     0.00     0.01     0.00P   65.65R    7.14  
Aldershot        17   13   +2      -5.15    19.20    -5.33    63.17     8.04    18.03     0.12     7.00     2.45P    1.57R    0.03  
Hyde_United      17    3  -30     -11.55     0.48   -13.63    28.13     7.25   -56.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.79R   87.25  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10