Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 1 November 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 October 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           9   22  +11       3.52    80.91     1.27    75.83     8.06    33.52    25.84    46.40    63.56    77.39    94.24     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   20  +10       2.94    77.26     2.58    76.88     7.86    36.50    29.72    52.26    69.39    82.06    95.92     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   20   +9       2.85    75.83     1.65    70.15     8.10    24.63     8.71    20.58    35.04    51.42    82.19     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham         9   19   +4       3.12    78.00    -1.11    65.64     8.13    14.10     2.81     8.34    16.77    28.51    62.45     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton       9   18   +7       5.31    90.66     6.60    54.91     7.97     2.63     0.15     0.55     1.46     3.51    15.14     0.58R    0.02  
Everton           9   18   +4       3.40    79.58     0.75    64.11     8.11    13.35     2.07     6.02    12.91    23.01    55.15     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          9   16  +10      -1.80    31.54     1.48    74.58     7.77    40.35    20.57    41.57    59.77    74.57    93.21     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   14   +2      -3.17    20.51    -5.96    71.08     7.91    29.72    10.11    24.10    40.44    57.38    85.72     0.00     0.00  
Swansea           9   11   +1      -0.37    47.52     2.36    48.76     7.92    -2.26     0.01     0.06     0.19     0.61     3.99     3.91R    0.26  
Hull              9   11   -3       2.78    78.43     3.27    38.65     7.49   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.20    30.73R    4.25  
Newcastle         9   11   -4       0.18    53.15    -1.17    44.80     7.98   -14.75     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.20     1.59    10.72R    1.00  
West_Brom         9   10   -2      -0.69    44.11     0.66    48.70     8.06    -3.99     0.01     0.06     0.22     0.62     4.05     4.35R    0.33  
Aston_Villa       9   10   -3       0.82    60.02     2.16    45.23     7.97   -10.45     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.21     1.69     9.52R    0.91  
Fulham            9   10   -3      -1.84    32.84    -2.08    45.24     7.90   -10.29     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.22     1.72     9.10R    0.70  
West_Ham          9    9   +0      -2.13    30.58     1.64    44.91     7.88    -6.19     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.17     1.54     9.24R    0.85  
Cardiff           9    9   -5       0.21    54.13     0.42    39.39     7.92   -20.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.37    28.56R    4.33  
Stoke             9    8   -4      -1.75    33.16    -0.34    42.18     7.64   -10.88     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.05     0.53    15.88R    1.34  
Norwich           9    8   -7      -1.62    35.30    -2.67    39.01     7.80   -21.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.26    29.97R    4.50  
Sunderland        9    4  -14      -5.28     7.89    -9.26    34.07     7.55   -29.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    55.71R   12.65  
Crystal_Palace    9    3  -13      -3.24    17.30    -2.24    24.50     7.08   -44.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.72R   68.86  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 November 2013, Ipswich 1 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         13   32  +17      10.25    98.16    11.06    86.31     8.96    30.92    35.30    56.03    91.16    64.49P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       13   29   +8       6.38    89.91     0.63    81.87     8.93    19.60    17.61    34.72    80.41    46.28P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             13   28   +8       6.31    89.59     2.36    81.86     9.05    20.70    17.64    35.14    80.32    47.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool       13   24   +5       4.03    78.14     1.72    73.25     8.89    11.18     3.25     9.04    46.13    17.24P    0.08R    0.01  
Reading         13   23   +8       0.37    52.46     0.73    77.85     9.28    23.00     9.56    21.81    67.16    34.84P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   13   23   +6       3.36    74.77     3.16    70.64     8.96     9.68     1.92     5.68    35.07    12.07P    0.17R    0.01  
Watford         13   22  +10       0.49    53.47     4.03    77.74     9.08    26.63     9.49    21.44    67.81    34.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           13   19   +4       0.79    56.43     3.58    66.90     9.10     8.00     0.78     2.62    22.53     6.76P    0.76R    0.06  
Huddersfield    13   17   +3       0.33    53.48     4.68    57.85     8.79    -3.62     0.04     0.17     4.02     0.80P    6.40R    0.86  
Ipswich         14   17   +2      -1.30    40.64     3.34    58.49     8.66    -1.63     0.05     0.20     4.59     0.94P    5.07R    0.60  
Leeds_United    13   17   +0       0.15    51.93     1.44    62.11     9.01    -0.27     0.16     0.75     9.97     2.56P    2.62R    0.34  
Bournemouth     13   17   -7       3.13    74.03     0.19    52.51     9.05   -24.03     0.01     0.05     1.28     0.22P   20.28R    4.24  
Blackburn       13   16   +3      -2.56    31.01     1.90    64.80     8.89     8.52     0.41     1.46    16.06     4.74P    1.16R    0.12  
Wigan           12   16   +3      -3.68    22.74    -1.83    72.31     9.47    17.91     3.34     9.07    44.04    19.58P    0.20R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   13   15   +2      -3.67    23.55     0.71    58.05     9.07    -1.91     0.06     0.31     4.89     1.27P    6.16R    0.91  
Brighton        13   15   -1      -4.30    19.43    -3.33    64.23     8.78     5.28     0.25     1.09    13.90     4.18P    1.27R    0.14  
Millwall        13   13  -11      -1.95    35.79    -6.71    50.40     8.71   -23.38     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.10P   26.15R    6.13  
Doncaster       12   12   -9       0.27    53.88    -1.56    48.31     8.99   -24.63     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.04P   35.38R   10.29  
Charlton        12   11   -5      -4.63    16.87    -3.80    56.48     8.96    -6.20     0.04     0.14     2.97     0.69P    8.87R    1.50  
Birmingham      13   11   -6      -6.01    11.23    -4.65    57.04     8.96    -4.74     0.04     0.15     3.54     0.84P    8.10R    1.23  
Bolton          13   10   -9      -7.55     6.22    -8.63    55.88     9.10    -8.13     0.02     0.10     2.82     0.77P   10.67R    1.88  
Barnsley        14   10  -15      -3.63    23.73    -5.73    43.47     8.30   -32.55     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   57.27R   22.16  
Yeovil          13    9  -10      -2.55    31.01    -0.18    39.91     8.41   -33.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    72.04R   38.84  
Sheff_Wed       12    8   -6      -6.44     7.75    -3.10    47.34     8.92   -16.87     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.05P   37.28R   10.68  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 October 2013, Notts_County 3 2 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   14   35  +22      10.48    97.94    13.93    86.91     8.95    34.08    13.60    38.52    93.81    52.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   13   32  +17       6.39    90.26     5.14    96.75     9.05    47.44    55.58    81.34    99.39    87.99P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    14   32  +15       5.08    82.61     3.07    91.61     8.99    39.72    27.90    62.88    97.66    74.18P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         14   26   +7       5.48    84.77     5.06    74.80     8.96    14.30     0.95     5.03    57.79    16.01P    0.11R    0.01  
Brentford       14   24   +2       2.24    66.01    -1.76    70.77     8.83     6.29     0.28     1.99    39.23     9.99P    0.41R    0.01  
Bradford        14   22  +10       4.08    77.45    11.96    61.44     9.08     2.87     0.04     0.29    10.94     2.08P    5.62R    0.58  
Walsall         14   22   +3       2.19    66.17     2.14    67.39     8.90     5.21     0.12     0.89    25.96     5.76P    1.27R    0.09  
Swindon         14   20   +6      -3.78    23.37    -0.99    74.60     8.89    22.09     0.91     4.91    58.83    21.40P    0.11R    0.00  
Port_Vale       14   20   +0       2.78    70.07     3.27    60.59     9.24    -5.73     0.02     0.18     9.34     1.77P    7.67R    0.88  
Rotherham       14   20   -1       4.42    79.94     5.01    57.02     9.16   -12.78     0.00     0.06     4.65     0.74P   15.25R    2.10  
MK_Dons         14   19   +3      -3.93    23.15    -2.76    70.33     9.03    14.08     0.33     1.97    39.32    11.66P    0.59R    0.03  
Crawley_Town    13   19   -1       2.14    66.68     0.83    60.25     9.12    -7.64     0.02     0.15     8.49     1.49P    7.96R    0.86  
Coventry        14   17   +9       4.46    79.08     3.91    68.92     9.05    21.52     0.23     1.60    34.36    10.20P    0.93R    0.07  
Colchester      14   16   -5       0.31    53.62     0.32    54.01     8.64   -13.98     0.00     0.01     1.76     0.24P   22.49R    3.81  
Carlisle        13   15  -11       1.02    59.44    -4.60    50.35     8.76   -28.40     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.09P   38.54R    9.08  
Oldham          14   14   -4      -2.44    32.83     0.35    51.59     8.63   -13.63     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.16P   30.96R    5.99  
Stevenage       14   14   -6      -3.00    29.11    -2.72    52.32     8.61   -14.54     0.00     0.01     1.08     0.16P   28.35R    5.22  
Shrewsbury      14   13   -3      -3.57    24.87     0.88    53.65     8.68    -7.50     0.00     0.01     1.62     0.30P   22.74R    3.95  
Gillingham      14   12   -7      -3.37    27.00    -0.81    48.05     8.89   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.10P   47.25R   13.34  
Sheff_Utd       14   12   -8      -8.32     5.61    -9.63    58.89     8.96    -3.46     0.01     0.07     6.12     1.45P    9.92R    1.08  
Tranmere        14   12  -14      -4.74    18.48   -10.29    50.10     8.67   -23.09     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.13P   38.50R    8.93  
Crewe           14   12  -19      -1.10    43.01    -8.60    42.58     8.27   -41.62     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   73.70R   34.72  
Notts_County    14   10   -9      -8.61     4.82    -7.92    51.72     8.96   -12.89     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.20P   30.92R    6.31  
Bristol_City    13    9   -6      -8.95     4.35    -5.79    56.63     9.83    -2.90     0.00     0.08     5.49     1.37P   16.69R    2.94  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 November 2013, Southend 3 0 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           14   26  +11       4.79    81.38     8.03    76.46     8.76    20.72    17.16    42.83    74.71    51.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Rochdale             14   26   +5       5.11    82.64     2.53    74.36     9.05    11.67    11.78    33.07    65.08    40.43P    0.06R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       14   25   +7       5.35    84.27     6.29    71.21     8.83    10.55     6.27    21.40    52.24    28.22P    0.14R    0.03  
Chesterfield         14   25   +7       2.16    65.76     1.67    77.38     8.81    19.36    19.47    46.64    77.67    55.78P    0.01R    0.01  
Exeter               14   24   +4       2.74    69.64     0.90    70.59     8.90     8.10     5.69    19.33    49.09    26.64P    0.20R    0.04  
Burton_Albion        14   24   +3       5.25    83.25     3.75    69.99     8.99     5.91     4.82    17.37    46.10    23.37P    0.30R    0.10  
Newport_County       14   23   +6       6.37    88.35     9.93    58.73     8.76    -6.44     0.34     1.87     9.50     3.08P    5.06R    1.73  
Southend             15   23   +4      -0.06    49.71     0.29    71.03     8.66    12.18     5.81    20.71    51.70    29.35P    0.14R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red            14   23   +3       4.05    77.70     3.33    64.86     8.77     0.05     1.49     6.76    25.13    10.51P    1.17R    0.33  
Scunthorpe           14   23   +0       0.73    55.27    -4.53    71.90     9.23     7.51     8.15    24.24    54.24    32.56P    0.21R    0.06  
Morecambe            14   22   +1       2.90    71.00     1.22    65.01     8.89    -0.31     1.58     7.30    25.75    11.13P    1.12R    0.34  
Mansfield            15   21   +0       3.20    72.51     3.86    58.79     8.80    -6.67     0.28     1.81     9.34     3.27P    5.27R    1.98  
Wycombe              13   20   +3       1.36    60.65     1.78    65.84     9.10     3.95     2.33     9.04    29.96    13.85P    1.01R    0.30  
Hartlepool           14   18   +1      -3.44    26.41    -2.34    66.19     9.09     7.55     2.31     9.85    31.82    16.02P    0.82R    0.23  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   18   -3       2.08    66.47     1.92    54.74     8.62   -13.88     0.05     0.51     3.76     1.06P   12.27R    5.09  
Portsmouth           13   17   +0      -4.94    17.96    -6.14    73.20     9.64    16.69    11.51    31.24    61.00    40.92P    0.20R    0.06  
Cheltenham           14   16   -6      -2.60    31.91    -5.10    59.26     8.85    -6.95     0.32     1.99    10.16     3.89P    5.01R    1.83  
York                 14   15   -3      -1.61    38.85     0.68    52.80     8.58   -11.84     0.04     0.29     2.44     0.68P   16.45R    7.34  
Plymouth             14   15   -6      -1.73    37.70    -3.03    53.63     8.33   -12.24     0.03     0.26     2.53     0.73P   14.06R    5.88  
Bury                 14   13   -2      -7.04     9.26    -3.28    60.44     9.16     3.43     0.53     3.15    14.25     6.42P    4.15R    1.54  
Bristol_Rovers       14   11   -7      -6.01    12.27    -3.97    49.07     8.65   -15.76     0.01     0.09     0.97     0.25P   30.02R   15.58  
Torquay              14   11  -10      -6.27    11.33    -7.13    50.15     8.62   -16.75     0.01     0.12     1.29     0.36P   26.13R   13.29  
Northampton          14   10   -8      -8.00     6.12    -6.26    49.48     8.60   -14.40     0.01     0.10     1.02     0.35P   28.01R   14.30  
Accrington_Stanley   14   10  -10      -5.30    14.77    -4.40    45.28     8.40   -22.45     0.00     0.02     0.25     0.06P   48.16R   29.88  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 31 October 2013, Salisbury 4 1 Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    16   38  +19      11.51    98.32    12.15    87.10     8.21    31.27    40.36    91.69    52.28P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    16   32  +11       2.62    67.56    -0.74    83.19     8.17    26.94    22.10    82.47    39.89P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            16   30  +14       2.45    66.90     4.94    82.43     8.23    31.71    19.54    80.60    36.65P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        17   30   +6       7.41    89.08     7.15    67.80     8.60     2.91     0.89    17.64     3.58P    0.59R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   16   28   +9       4.90    80.68     7.15    69.44     8.28     9.27     1.13    22.91     4.78P    0.25R    0.00  
Grimsby          16   27   +7      -0.02    49.59    -0.66    76.90     8.18    20.59     6.33    57.40    20.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         16   26   +0       6.03    85.99     3.13    63.72     8.08    -5.43     0.19     7.16     1.14P    1.51R    0.01  
Barnet           16   25   +7      -3.09    29.09    -2.67    76.62     8.38    23.50     7.15    56.66    22.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          16   25   +4       4.77    78.93     6.91    65.08     8.65     1.71     0.42    11.52     2.23P    1.39R    0.02  
Gateshead        16   25   +4       2.39    66.64     3.06    66.34     8.23     4.32     0.39    13.42     2.68P    0.64R    0.00  
Halifax          16   25   +3       4.53    78.53     6.00    63.18     8.88    -2.49     0.29     8.44     1.53P    2.51R    0.03  
Alfreton_Town    16   25   -1       5.35    83.02     3.25    64.04     8.33    -5.40     0.21     8.23     1.32P    1.65R    0.01  
Lincoln_City     16   22   +1       0.92    57.19     2.29    62.38     8.24    -0.07     0.13     6.02     1.00P    2.28R    0.03  
Wrexham          16   19   -2      -7.20     9.62    -8.82    66.82     8.23     8.12     0.50    14.77     4.37P    0.62R    0.01  
Macclesfield     16   19   -2      -3.32    27.91    -2.51    59.17     8.16    -3.41     0.02     2.64     0.52P    4.88R    0.09  
Forest_Green     16   18   +0      -5.22    17.60    -2.09    61.94     8.35     4.10     0.11     5.65     1.22P    2.83R    0.05  
Southport        16   18   -6      -0.99    43.92    -1.19    54.26     8.02   -14.64     0.00     0.66     0.11P   14.71R    0.46  
Dartford         16   18   -9      -1.71    38.82    -5.24    53.04     8.10   -18.94     0.00     0.44     0.07P   19.10R    0.65  
Hereford         17   17   -6      -7.21    10.89    -7.41    57.92     7.92    -4.11     0.02     1.59     0.34P    6.27R    0.11  
Tamworth         16   16   -9      -0.69    46.25    -0.96    50.16     7.87   -20.24     0.00     0.14     0.03P   29.46R    1.54  
Woking           16   14   -9      -4.67    20.37    -3.36    47.15     7.92   -22.77     0.00     0.06     0.01P   45.00R    2.90  
Chester          16   13  -13      -1.62    39.77    -1.52    43.04     8.10   -29.95     0.00     0.01     0.00P   66.37R    8.79  
Aldershot        16   12   +2      -4.60    20.86    -5.14    64.36     8.38    19.20     0.21     9.89     3.57P    1.42R    0.03  
Hyde_United      16    2  -30     -11.17     0.41   -13.72    28.47     7.52   -56.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.49R   85.26  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10