Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 31 October 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 October 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           9   22  +11       3.55    81.12     1.32    75.74     8.04    33.39    25.49    45.97    63.25    77.00    93.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   20  +10       2.97    77.29     2.69    76.74     7.92    36.31    29.46    52.00    68.90    81.64    95.85     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   20   +9       2.81    75.24     1.56    70.17     8.08    24.70     8.83    20.89    35.63    51.42    82.21     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         9   19   +4       3.17    78.30    -1.05    65.61     8.14    14.16     2.96     8.56    17.18    29.02    62.49     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton       9   18   +7       5.32    90.64     6.63    54.84     7.96     2.53     0.10     0.50     1.37     3.39    14.84     0.63R    0.02  
Everton           9   18   +4       3.38    79.51     0.73    64.15     8.04    13.41     1.92     5.96    12.72    23.28    55.54     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City          9   16  +10      -1.80    31.70     1.45    74.58     7.78    40.25    21.16    41.81    59.93    74.84    93.50     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   14   +2      -3.14    20.83    -5.94    70.95     8.02    29.52    10.04    24.11    40.29    57.24    85.24     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea           9   11   +1      -0.42    47.10     2.34    48.80     7.91    -2.23     0.01     0.07     0.21     0.61     4.07     3.79R    0.19  
Hull              9   11   -3       2.79    78.36     3.29    38.71     7.65   -20.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.22    31.07R    4.52  
Newcastle         9   11   -4       0.16    52.70    -1.19    44.86     7.96   -14.66     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.19     1.49    10.19R    1.03  
West_Brom         9   10   -2      -0.70    44.12     0.65    48.75     8.08    -4.05     0.02     0.06     0.23     0.64     4.38     4.05R    0.23  
Aston_Villa       9   10   -3       0.79    59.62     2.11    45.27     7.94   -10.38     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.17     1.59     9.08R    0.86  
Fulham            9   10   -3      -1.82    33.46    -2.07    45.31     7.99   -10.18     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.27     1.80     9.17R    0.77  
West_Ham          9    9   +0      -2.15    30.44     1.62    45.00     7.89    -5.91     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.18     1.64     9.29R    0.81  
Cardiff           9    9   -5       0.23    54.31     0.41    39.40     7.92   -20.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.29    28.66R    4.36  
Stoke             9    8   -4      -1.74    33.21    -0.32    42.22     7.62   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.58    15.82R    1.37  
Norwich           9    8   -7      -1.63    35.28    -2.74    39.02     7.73   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.25    30.11R    4.51  
Sunderland        9    4  -14      -5.27     7.87    -9.26    33.99     7.51   -29.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    56.28R   12.61  
Crystal_Palace    9    3  -13      -3.24    17.16    -2.24    24.43     7.08   -44.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.82R   68.72  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 October 2013, Wigan 0 0 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         13   32  +17      10.28    98.19    11.07    86.37     9.03    31.03    35.29    55.80    91.06    64.53P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       13   29   +8       6.37    89.81     0.62    81.78     8.90    19.46    17.26    34.41    80.41    46.23P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             13   28   +8       6.28    89.49     2.32    81.85     9.05    20.66    17.20    34.96    79.93    47.38P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       13   24   +5       4.03    78.36     1.74    73.13     8.83    11.00     3.08     8.49    45.82    16.49P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         13   23   +8       0.35    52.17     0.66    78.04     9.32    23.26    10.11    22.43    67.40    35.51P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   13   23   +6       3.29    74.51     3.04    70.75     9.05     9.88     2.05     6.09    35.82    12.35P    0.17R    0.01  
Watford         13   22  +10       0.44    53.26     3.96    77.86     9.09    26.83     9.68    21.88    67.76    33.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           13   19   +4       0.78    56.21     3.58    66.92     9.00     8.06     0.78     2.51    21.89     6.49P    0.73R    0.06  
Huddersfield    13   17   +3       0.22    52.71     4.53    57.99     8.80    -3.38     0.05     0.21     4.21     0.86P    5.97R    0.85  
Leeds_United    13   17   +0       0.29    53.21     1.67    61.86     8.97    -0.64     0.17     0.71     9.29     2.32P    2.66R    0.31  
Bournemouth     13   17   -7       3.13    74.32     0.19    52.43     9.04   -24.22     0.00     0.04     1.20     0.18P   20.14R    4.40  
Blackburn       13   16   +3      -2.56    30.89     1.90    64.78     8.91     8.52     0.41     1.45    15.61     4.76P    1.23R    0.13  
Wigan           12   16   +3      -3.60    23.29    -1.75    72.14     9.49    17.58     3.33     8.73    43.41    18.97P    0.20R    0.02  
Ipswich         13   16   +2      -0.63    45.69     3.81    60.12     9.04     0.28     0.14     0.52     7.02     1.76P    4.18R    0.51  
Middlesbrough   13   15   +2      -3.51    24.45     0.95    57.72     9.01    -2.43     0.06     0.22     4.28     1.01P    6.73R    0.95  
Brighton        13   15   -1      -4.38    19.28    -3.44    64.52     8.78     5.70     0.29     1.13    14.54     4.62P    1.17R    0.10  
Millwall        13   13  -11      -1.97    35.38    -6.67    50.34     8.68   -23.41     0.00     0.01     0.54     0.08P   26.13R    5.89  
Doncaster       12   12   -9       0.28    54.10    -1.57    48.23     8.93   -24.74     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P   35.31R   10.16  
Charlton        12   11   -5      -4.54    17.16    -3.74    56.32     8.98    -6.38     0.03     0.13     2.89     0.76P    9.06R    1.43  
Birmingham      13   11   -6      -6.03    11.21    -4.69    57.16     8.98    -4.52     0.03     0.17     3.66     0.92P    7.62R    1.16  
Bolton          13   10   -9      -7.49     6.22    -8.53    55.77     9.02    -8.29     0.03     0.11     2.57     0.66P   10.63R    1.80  
Yeovil          13    9  -10      -2.58    31.05    -0.23    40.13     8.54   -33.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   71.08R   37.52  
Barnsley        13    9  -15      -3.72    22.28    -6.37    43.01     8.53   -34.02     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   59.26R   24.36  
Sheff_Wed       12    8   -6      -6.41     7.74    -3.04    47.19     8.82   -17.12     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P   37.64R   10.35  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 October 2013, Notts_County 3 2 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   14   35  +22      10.49    97.91    13.95    86.76     9.06    33.85    13.22    37.86    93.29    51.68P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   13   32  +17       6.33    90.19     5.03    96.88     9.01    47.60    55.35    81.81    99.36    87.95P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    14   32  +15       5.02    82.45     2.98    91.70     9.10    39.90    28.63    63.14    97.57    74.28P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         14   26   +7       5.53    84.91     5.14    74.75     8.96    14.22     0.88     4.95    57.73    15.94P    0.12R    0.00  
Brentford       14   24   +2       2.19    65.75    -1.82    70.78     8.90     6.34     0.33     2.05    39.24    10.16P    0.43R    0.02  
Bradford        14   22  +10       3.96    76.85    11.77    61.58     9.08     3.16     0.03     0.29    11.54     2.18P    5.50R    0.48  
Walsall         14   22   +3       2.15    65.94     2.12    67.54     8.93     5.43     0.09     0.92    26.64     6.05P    1.18R    0.04  
Swindon         14   20   +6      -3.80    23.38    -0.98    74.51     8.96    21.96     0.84     4.88    58.35    21.21P    0.13R    0.00  
Port_Vale       14   20   +0       2.94    71.05     3.56    60.25     9.20    -6.26     0.02     0.17     8.81     1.61P    8.15R    0.92  
Rotherham       14   20   -1       4.43    79.99     4.96    57.07     9.12   -12.71     0.01     0.07     4.36     0.66P   14.96R    2.02  
MK_Dons         14   19   +3      -3.91    23.55    -2.72    70.31     9.01    14.05     0.31     1.92    39.13    11.98P    0.68R    0.02  
Crawley_Town    13   19   -1       2.09    66.14     0.75    60.20     9.15    -7.69     0.03     0.15     8.57     1.47P    7.96R    0.91  
Coventry        14   17   +9       4.38    78.86     3.77    69.07     9.10    21.75     0.25     1.62    35.34    10.51P    0.93R    0.06  
Colchester      14   16   -5       0.28    53.06     0.30    54.11     8.66   -13.83     0.00     0.01     1.85     0.27P   22.16R    3.71  
Carlisle        13   15  -11       1.02    59.44    -4.61    50.40     8.81   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.11P   38.51R    9.18  
Oldham          14   14   -4      -2.36    33.38     0.48    51.49     8.62   -13.79     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.14P   31.38R    6.02  
Stevenage       14   14   -6      -2.92    29.64    -2.61    52.20     8.70   -14.74     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.18P   29.14R    5.28  
Shrewsbury      14   13   -3      -3.45    25.95     1.02    53.56     8.69    -7.64     0.00     0.01     1.71     0.33P   22.97R    4.15  
Gillingham      14   12   -7      -3.43    26.57    -0.88    48.14     8.89   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.07P   46.98R   13.21  
Sheff_Utd       14   12   -8      -8.27     5.78    -9.56    58.88     8.88    -3.51     0.00     0.06     6.00     1.51P    9.56R    1.13  
Tranmere        14   12  -14      -4.77    18.24   -10.33    50.17     8.67   -23.03     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.12P   38.54R    8.70  
Crewe           14   12  -19      -1.13    42.96    -8.63    42.61     8.38   -41.62     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   73.11R   34.69  
Notts_County    14   10   -9      -8.61     4.72    -7.91    51.66     8.93   -12.96     0.00     0.01     1.19     0.23P   31.02R    6.45  
Bristol_City    13    9   -6      -8.93     4.32    -5.78    56.63     9.73    -2.94     0.00     0.08     5.25     1.34P   16.56R    2.99  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 October 2013, York 4 1 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           14   26  +11       4.78    81.42     8.01    76.36     8.82    20.65    16.97    43.25    75.10    51.56P    0.03R    0.01  
Rochdale             14   26   +5       5.09    82.41     2.52    74.41     9.13    11.74    12.33    33.81    65.33    41.11P    0.08R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       14   25   +7       5.39    84.21     6.28    71.09     8.99    10.37     6.64    21.95    52.19    28.45P    0.21R    0.06  
Chesterfield         14   25   +7       2.22    66.20     1.75    77.36     8.79    19.39    19.92    47.21    78.12    56.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter               14   24   +4       2.69    69.24     0.82    70.92     8.87     8.58     6.18    20.73    50.90    28.38P    0.20R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        14   24   +3       5.22    83.37     3.71    69.90     8.95     5.83     4.69    17.61    46.02    23.52P    0.32R    0.08  
Newport_County       14   23   +6       6.30    88.10     9.79    58.97     8.93    -6.10     0.40     2.31    10.45     3.74P    5.11R    1.73  
Dag_&_Red            14   23   +3       3.95    76.95     3.17    65.01     8.83     0.27     1.62     7.32    25.99    11.08P    1.09R    0.32  
Scunthorpe           14   23   +0       0.77    55.41    -4.48    71.82     9.28     7.39     8.35    24.59    54.40    32.64P    0.25R    0.07  
Morecambe            14   22   +1       2.98    71.56     1.30    64.78     8.92    -0.63     1.60     7.17    25.29    10.87P    1.32R    0.42  
Mansfield            14   21   +3       3.48    74.81     5.29    61.16     9.02    -2.05     0.75     3.57    15.29     5.93P    3.20R    1.09  
Wycombe              13   20   +3       1.42    61.16     1.84    65.69     9.07     3.71     2.23     9.14    29.73    13.85P    0.98R    0.31  
Southend             14   20   +1      -0.76    44.58    -1.39    68.54     8.81     7.96     3.60    13.97    41.07    21.23P    0.39R    0.11  
Hartlepool           14   18   +1      -3.37    26.93    -2.23    66.19     9.22     7.48     2.60    10.31    32.33    16.72P    0.95R    0.30  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   18   -3       2.03    66.09     1.88    54.68     8.62   -13.97     0.07     0.51     3.83     1.09P   12.62R    5.18  
Portsmouth           13   17   +0      -4.84    18.29    -5.98    72.99     9.50    16.30    11.07    30.51    61.00    40.86P    0.19R    0.06  
Cheltenham           14   16   -6      -2.57    32.11    -5.09    59.07     8.84    -7.17     0.28     1.81    10.08     3.64P    5.28R    1.92  
York                 14   15   -3      -1.63    38.96     0.66    52.85     8.62   -11.69     0.04     0.35     2.67     0.82P   16.62R    7.40  
Plymouth             14   15   -6      -1.70    37.98    -3.01    53.62     8.33   -12.23     0.03     0.29     2.47     0.71P   14.03R    5.93  
Bury                 14   13   -2      -6.98     9.86    -3.17    60.21     9.26     3.11     0.60     3.20    14.10     6.52P    4.38R    1.72  
Bristol_Rovers       14   11   -7      -5.98    12.54    -3.94    49.08     8.72   -15.67     0.01     0.14     1.07     0.33P   30.52R   15.99  
Torquay              14   11  -10      -6.22    11.73    -7.09    50.20     8.62   -16.65     0.01     0.14     1.15     0.36P   26.12R   13.22  
Northampton          14   10   -8      -7.91     6.34    -6.14    49.41     8.74   -14.48     0.01     0.12     1.11     0.38P   28.70R   14.78  
Accrington_Stanley   14   10  -10      -5.37    14.71    -4.49    45.46     8.45   -22.15     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.06P   47.39R   29.21  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 31 October 2013, Salisbury 4 1 Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    16   38  +19      11.48    98.40    12.11    87.09     8.16    31.29    39.64    91.86    51.97P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    16   32  +11       2.52    66.88    -0.86    83.39     8.11    27.19    22.46    83.01    40.02P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            16   30  +14       2.37    66.19     4.81    82.63     8.24    32.05    20.38    81.32    37.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        17   30   +6       7.53    89.77     7.33    67.63     8.52     2.68     0.73    16.95     3.12P    0.60R    0.01  
Braintree_Town   16   28   +9       4.91    80.86     7.17    69.45     8.28     9.21     1.11    22.70     4.69P    0.19R    0.00  
Grimsby          16   27   +7       0.01    49.98    -0.64    76.86     8.12    20.52     6.15    57.10    19.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Nuneaton         16   26   +0       6.10    86.44     3.26    63.64     8.15    -5.57     0.11     7.14     0.99P    1.69R    0.01  
Barnet           16   25   +7      -3.13    28.94    -2.78    76.75     8.44    23.64     7.24    57.25    22.84P    0.03R    0.00  
Welling          16   25   +4       4.74    78.96     6.79    65.11     8.66     1.78     0.36    11.64     2.22P    1.39R    0.02  
Gateshead        16   25   +4       2.36    66.22     3.01    66.41     8.22     4.39     0.45    13.21     2.59P    0.67R    0.01  
Halifax          16   25   +3       4.67    79.01     6.20    63.03     8.85    -2.77     0.23     8.16     1.45P    2.69R    0.05  
Alfreton_Town    16   25   -1       5.35    83.08     3.23    64.07     8.33    -5.30     0.22     8.34     1.35P    1.55R    0.02  
Lincoln_City     16   22   +1       0.87    57.08     2.18    62.49     8.25     0.17     0.13     6.03     1.13P    2.19R    0.02  
Wrexham          16   19   -2      -7.23     9.46    -8.85    66.80     8.20     8.10     0.44    14.34     4.31P    0.55R    0.00  
Macclesfield     16   19   -2      -3.25    28.34    -2.38    59.01     8.24    -3.65     0.04     2.77     0.56P    5.03R    0.10  
Forest_Green     16   18   +0      -5.27    17.41    -2.21    62.14     8.33     4.43     0.12     5.83     1.32P    2.58R    0.03  
Southport        16   18   -6      -0.94    44.32    -1.07    54.10     8.00   -14.91     0.01     0.58     0.07P   15.12R    0.46  
Dartford         16   18   -9      -1.81    37.66    -5.40    53.17     8.06   -18.77     0.00     0.41     0.07P   18.54R    0.59  
Hereford         17   17   -6      -7.11    11.33    -7.22    57.63     7.95    -4.56     0.01     1.45     0.32P    6.72R    0.14  
Tamworth         16   16   -9      -0.72    46.22    -1.00    50.26     7.91   -20.07     0.00     0.14     0.02P   29.18R    1.55  
Woking           16   14   -9      -4.67    20.24    -3.38    47.16     7.91   -22.77     0.00     0.06     0.01P   45.11R    2.94  
Chester          16   13  -13      -1.63    39.57    -1.57    43.03     8.04   -29.91     0.00     0.01     0.00P   66.22R    8.59  
Aldershot        16   12   +2      -4.56    21.06    -5.02    64.31     8.36    19.07     0.18     9.70     3.37P    1.49R    0.03  
Hyde_United      16    2  -30     -11.21     0.44   -13.70    28.45     7.53   -56.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.45R   85.43  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10