Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 30 October 2013 at 23:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 October 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           9   22  +11       3.56    81.34     1.32    75.64     8.02    33.18    24.96    45.52    62.87    76.71    93.90     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   20  +10       2.95    77.38     2.65    76.88     7.90    36.60    30.19    52.51    69.55    81.97    95.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   20   +9       2.83    75.73     1.60    70.01     8.11    24.43     8.70    20.35    34.50    50.69    81.79     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham         9   19   +4       3.15    78.03    -1.10    65.72     8.11    14.34     3.15     8.57    17.17    29.29    62.87     0.02R    0.00  
Southampton       9   18   +7       5.33    90.96     6.66    54.75     7.96     2.40     0.13     0.45     1.40     3.31    14.60     0.61R    0.01  
Everton           9   18   +4       3.34    79.53     0.67    64.35     8.10    13.70     2.09     6.44    13.35    23.88    56.55     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          9   16  +10      -1.78    31.80     1.48    74.66     7.83    40.48    21.08    42.22    60.25    74.87    93.45     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   14   +2      -3.14    21.17    -5.93    70.95     7.98    29.47     9.63    23.76    40.20    57.18    85.06     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea           9   11   +1      -0.40    47.17     2.32    48.83     7.92    -2.17     0.01     0.04     0.20     0.56     4.15     3.65R    0.19  
Hull              9   11   -3       2.75    78.24     3.24    38.76     7.53   -19.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.21    30.31R    4.28  
Newcastle         9   11   -4       0.19    52.99    -1.14    44.83     8.04   -14.73     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.20     1.55    10.75R    1.03  
West_Brom         9   10   -2      -0.72    43.84     0.62    48.71     8.06    -4.03     0.02     0.05     0.24     0.63     4.04     4.15R    0.29  
Aston_Villa       9   10   -3       0.81    59.87     2.15    45.22     7.92   -10.49     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.15     1.54     9.53R    0.84  
Fulham            9   10   -3      -1.83    33.17    -2.07    45.13     7.93   -10.41     0.01     0.03     0.08     0.23     1.61     9.35R    0.72  
West_Ham          9    9   +0      -2.12    30.49     1.66    45.02     7.91    -6.02     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.22     1.56     9.17R    0.84  
Cardiff           9    9   -5       0.16    53.52     0.31    39.55     7.96   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.32    28.31R    4.20  
Stoke             9    8   -4      -1.76    33.05    -0.34    42.15     7.63   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.55    16.01R    1.45  
Norwich           9    8   -7      -1.58    35.74    -2.65    39.00     7.70   -21.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.23    29.82R    4.58  
Sunderland        9    4  -14      -5.29     7.78    -9.27    34.00     7.58   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    56.34R   12.64  
Crystal_Palace    9    3  -13      -3.22    17.39    -2.18    24.35     7.10   -44.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.97R   68.92  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 October 2013, Wigan 0 0 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         13   32  +17      10.31    98.20    11.16    86.25     8.96    30.92    35.07    55.74    91.03    64.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       13   29   +8       6.33    89.95     0.57    81.77     8.89    19.52    17.30    34.46    80.14    45.93P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             13   28   +8       6.35    89.75     2.41    81.72     9.03    20.50    17.47    34.39    79.61    46.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool       13   24   +5       3.97    77.94     1.68    73.21     8.87    11.12     3.33     8.92    46.05    17.07P    0.06R    0.01  
Reading         13   23   +8       0.32    51.82     0.67    78.01     9.31    23.21     9.99    22.60    67.49    35.66P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   13   23   +6       3.30    74.33     3.06    70.63     8.95     9.70     1.82     5.56    35.24    11.85P    0.18R    0.01  
Watford         13   22  +10       0.47    53.34     3.99    77.79     9.10    26.75     9.70    22.03    67.97    34.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           13   19   +4       0.81    56.47     3.61    66.76     9.04     7.81     0.70     2.47    21.57     6.45P    0.80R    0.05  
Huddersfield    13   17   +3       0.27    52.93     4.59    57.80     8.79    -3.63     0.05     0.20     3.90     0.88P    6.25R    0.82  
Leeds_United    13   17   +0       0.28    53.00     1.63    62.01     8.96    -0.41     0.19     0.73     9.71     2.40P    2.66R    0.27  
Bournemouth     13   17   -7       3.16    74.66     0.22    52.49     9.02   -24.13     0.01     0.05     1.15     0.22P   19.88R    4.18  
Blackburn       13   16   +3      -2.60    30.88     1.81    64.89     8.97     8.69     0.38     1.50    16.27     5.03P    1.29R    0.15  
Wigan           12   16   +3      -3.59    23.20    -1.73    72.17     9.52    17.71     3.47     9.08    43.49    19.31P    0.20R    0.01  
Ipswich         13   16   +2      -0.49    46.75     4.00    59.86     8.99    -0.04     0.07     0.39     6.71     1.55P    4.15R    0.49  
Middlesbrough   13   15   +2      -3.71    23.14     0.61    58.24     9.07    -1.60     0.06     0.30     4.90     1.32P    6.12R    0.83  
Brighton        13   15   -1      -4.35    19.24    -3.41    64.33     8.77     5.47     0.29     1.14    14.14     4.48P    1.25R    0.10  
Millwall        13   13  -11      -2.03    34.88    -6.78    50.52     8.63   -23.18     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.10P   25.38R    5.36  
Doncaster       12   12   -9       0.27    54.38    -1.60    48.45     9.14   -24.46     0.01     0.02     0.51     0.09P   34.84R    9.93  
Charlton        12   11   -5      -4.57    17.29    -3.74    56.32     8.92    -6.46     0.03     0.11     2.80     0.68P    8.99R    1.41  
Birmingham      13   11   -6      -6.05    11.09    -4.72    57.28     9.09    -4.43     0.03     0.18     3.77     0.95P    7.74R    1.17  
Bolton          13   10   -9      -7.55     6.17    -8.65    55.85     9.03    -8.14     0.02     0.10     2.57     0.65P   10.48R    1.81  
Yeovil          13    9  -10      -2.45    31.89    -0.02    39.73     8.45   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   72.84R   38.91  
Barnsley        13    9  -15      -3.62    22.99    -6.20    42.78     8.50   -34.44     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   60.48R   24.67  
Sheff_Wed       12    8   -6      -6.52     7.37    -3.16    47.47     8.86   -16.71     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P   36.34R    9.83  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 October 2013, Notts_County 3 2 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   14   35  +22      10.52    97.85    13.96    86.92     8.94    34.15    13.40    38.92    93.76    52.59P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   13   32  +17       6.36    89.94     5.08    96.86     9.00    47.52    56.08    81.87    99.34    88.16P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    14   32  +15       5.12    82.86     3.16    91.40     9.13    39.40    27.53    61.87    97.20    73.43P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         14   26   +7       5.59    85.14     5.19    74.56     8.98    13.96     0.84     4.73    56.96    15.46P    0.15R    0.00  
Brentford       14   24   +2       2.17    65.35    -1.86    70.89     8.93     6.45     0.39     2.14    39.54    10.37P    0.47R    0.02  
Bradford        14   22  +10       4.05    77.25    11.91    61.47     9.16     2.92     0.05     0.28    11.17     2.15P    5.82R    0.55  
Walsall         14   22   +3       1.99    64.92     1.88    67.81     8.94     5.79     0.14     1.03    27.54     6.31P    1.08R    0.08  
Swindon         14   20   +6      -3.80    23.57    -1.00    74.60     8.94    22.11     0.94     5.05    58.82    21.61P    0.14R    0.01  
Port_Vale       14   20   +0       2.75    69.72     3.25    60.57     9.27    -5.74     0.02     0.17     9.37     1.60P    7.88R    0.90  
Rotherham       14   20   -1       4.52    80.50     5.11    56.91     9.12   -12.94     0.00     0.04     4.38     0.67P   15.19R    2.19  
MK_Dons         14   19   +3      -3.79    24.07    -2.53    70.00     9.02    13.62     0.29     1.80    37.57    11.00P    0.68R    0.03  
Crawley_Town    13   19   -1       2.14    66.75     0.86    60.07     9.11    -7.94     0.01     0.13     8.35     1.53P    8.23R    0.93  
Coventry        14   17   +9       4.37    78.47     3.76    69.21     9.19    21.95     0.28     1.75    35.72    10.68P    0.93R    0.06  
Colchester      14   16   -5       0.33    53.51     0.39    54.04     8.58   -13.94     0.00     0.01     1.73     0.25P   22.17R    3.51  
Carlisle        13   15  -11       1.03    59.39    -4.58    50.40     8.80   -28.24     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.11P   38.57R    9.25  
Oldham          14   14   -4      -2.46    32.69     0.35    51.69     8.64   -13.51     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.20P   30.73R    5.91  
Stevenage       14   14   -6      -2.89    29.46    -2.57    52.11     8.57   -14.87     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.15P   29.07R    5.26  
Shrewsbury      14   13   -3      -3.54    25.10     0.94    53.60     8.68    -7.59     0.00     0.01     1.75     0.34P   22.80R    3.83  
Gillingham      14   12   -7      -3.38    26.90    -0.80    48.07     8.96   -19.46     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.11P   47.28R   13.62  
Sheff_Utd       14   12   -8      -8.33     5.70    -9.67    59.01     8.90    -3.32     0.01     0.07     6.11     1.53P    9.39R    1.13  
Tranmere        14   12  -14      -4.74    18.67   -10.29    50.03     8.66   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.13P   39.19R    9.04  
Crewe           14   12  -19      -1.12    42.96    -8.64    42.66     8.34   -41.47     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   73.15R   34.42  
Notts_County    14   10   -9      -8.67     4.69    -8.01    51.74     8.97   -12.82     0.00     0.01     1.24     0.26P   30.63R    6.21  
Bristol_City    13    9   -6      -9.00     4.09    -5.88    56.68     9.74    -2.86     0.01     0.08     5.35     1.34P   16.46R    3.06  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 October 2013, York 4 1 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           14   26  +11       4.77    81.30     8.00    76.34     8.85    20.56    17.15    42.55    74.73    50.79P    0.02R    0.01  
Rochdale             14   26   +5       5.11    82.67     2.55    74.40     9.09    11.70    12.14    33.52    65.48    40.82P    0.08R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       14   25   +7       5.36    84.25     6.24    71.25     8.95    10.57     6.78    21.84    52.45    28.56P    0.11R    0.03  
Chesterfield         14   25   +7       2.20    65.98     1.75    77.39     8.75    19.36    19.70    47.06    78.19    56.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter               14   24   +4       2.80    69.97     1.00    70.65     8.92     8.18     6.06    19.90    49.48    27.20P    0.24R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        14   24   +3       5.15    83.18     3.58    70.04     9.02     6.08     5.05    17.92    46.41    24.01P    0.30R    0.08  
Newport_County       14   23   +6       6.33    88.24     9.83    58.83     8.98    -6.27     0.38     2.28    10.21     3.56P    5.43R    1.91  
Dag_&_Red            14   23   +3       3.97    77.18     3.20    64.89     8.83     0.09     1.61     7.30    25.50    10.84P    1.11R    0.33  
Scunthorpe           14   23   +0       0.74    55.19    -4.50    72.00     9.26     7.63     8.19    24.90    55.09    33.29P    0.19R    0.06  
Morecambe            14   22   +1       2.96    71.26     1.27    64.70     8.96    -0.73     1.60     7.11    25.06    10.77P    1.27R    0.41  
Mansfield            14   21   +3       3.57    75.14     5.41    61.01     9.07    -2.27     0.73     3.65    15.10     6.02P    3.50R    1.23  
Wycombe              13   20   +3       1.41    61.07     1.84    65.83     9.06     3.90     2.24     9.36    30.13    14.19P    1.02R    0.34  
Southend             14   20   +1      -0.78    44.39    -1.43    68.70     8.88     8.21     3.64    14.67    41.29    21.98P    0.40R    0.09  
Hartlepool           14   18   +1      -3.49    26.30    -2.38    66.35     9.26     7.74     2.64    10.63    33.08    17.29P    0.96R    0.30  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   18   -3       2.16    67.13     2.04    54.59     8.61   -14.14     0.06     0.52     3.67     1.07P   12.88R    5.37  
Portsmouth           13   17   +0      -4.90    18.01    -6.09    73.03     9.57    16.41    10.98    30.66    60.89    40.66P    0.21R    0.06  
Cheltenham           14   16   -6      -2.64    31.66    -5.17    59.11     8.90    -7.02     0.32     1.97    10.31     3.94P    5.11R    1.90  
York                 14   15   -3      -1.55    39.39     0.79    52.68     8.60   -11.95     0.05     0.36     2.45     0.78P   16.88R    7.52  
Plymouth             14   15   -6      -1.68    38.04    -2.98    53.56     8.38   -12.34     0.05     0.31     2.50     0.76P   14.30R    5.94  
Bury                 14   13   -2      -6.99     9.67    -3.20    60.39     9.21     3.29     0.60     3.15    14.33     6.43P    4.21R    1.62  
Bristol_Rovers       14   11   -7      -6.09    12.17    -4.10    49.24     8.64   -15.40     0.01     0.09     1.01     0.28P   29.31R   14.98  
Torquay              14   11  -10      -6.26    11.65    -7.12    50.17     8.63   -16.71     0.02     0.16     1.25     0.37P   26.19R   13.29  
Northampton          14   10   -8      -7.91     6.45    -6.18    49.34     8.69   -14.60     0.01     0.08     1.08     0.31P   28.83R   15.07  
Accrington_Stanley   14   10  -10      -5.26    14.97    -4.34    45.40     8.41   -22.26     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.06P   47.44R   29.38  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Aldershot 2 3 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    16   38  +19      11.51    98.45    12.17    87.13     8.10    31.31    39.92    92.33    52.35P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    16   32  +11       2.59    67.14    -0.74    83.29     8.13    26.95    22.48    83.13    39.96P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            16   30  +14       2.45    66.77     4.96    82.46     8.27    31.77    19.90    80.89    36.90P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   16   28   +9       4.90    80.81     7.10    69.53     8.19     9.37     1.11    23.21     4.83P    0.20R    0.00  
Grimsby          16   27   +7      -0.16    48.44    -0.85    76.93     8.11    20.65     6.37    58.06    20.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        16   27   +3       6.88    88.71     5.70    64.66     8.73    -2.20     0.40    10.60     1.91P    1.64R    0.01  
Nuneaton         16   26   +0       6.07    86.07     3.22    63.72     8.10    -5.36     0.16     7.42     1.18P    1.55R    0.01  
Barnet           16   25   +7      -3.13    28.81    -2.72    76.65     8.38    23.41     7.28    57.42    22.61P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          16   25   +4       4.75    78.79     6.82    65.15     8.70     1.86     0.46    12.07     2.39P    1.43R    0.02  
Gateshead        16   25   +4       2.45    67.08     3.12    66.41     8.24     4.39     0.43    13.53     2.65P    0.65R    0.00  
Halifax          16   25   +3       4.64    79.03     6.11    63.10     8.88    -2.60     0.24     8.52     1.57P    2.62R    0.05  
Alfreton_Town    16   25   -1       5.37    83.23     3.24    64.03     8.36    -5.35     0.26     8.41     1.37P    1.75R    0.02  
Lincoln_City     16   22   +1       0.88    57.19     2.23    62.45     8.20     0.11     0.12     5.97     1.06P    2.21R    0.02  
Wrexham          16   19   -2      -7.40     8.98    -9.10    66.98     8.21     8.36     0.48    15.36     4.57P    0.59R    0.00  
Macclesfield     16   19   -2      -3.22    28.52    -2.40    59.19     8.21    -3.37     0.05     2.75     0.55P    4.92R    0.12  
Forest_Green     16   18   +0      -5.27    17.40    -2.15    62.00     8.34     4.27     0.13     6.00     1.41P    2.62R    0.04  
Southport        16   18   -6      -0.92    44.59    -1.06    54.07     8.02   -14.90     0.01     0.62     0.10P   15.52R    0.49  
Dartford         16   18   -9      -1.83    37.58    -5.44    53.14     8.05   -18.69     0.00     0.46     0.07P   18.87R    0.55  
Hereford         16   17   -3      -6.47    12.65    -5.35    59.87     8.16    -0.12     0.04     3.22     0.72P    4.21R    0.05  
Tamworth         16   16   -9      -0.74    45.72    -1.11    50.26     7.88   -19.96     0.00     0.14     0.03P   29.54R    1.45  
Woking           16   14   -9      -4.83    19.39    -3.60    47.29     7.91   -22.45     0.00     0.06     0.01P   44.61R    2.69  
Chester          16   13  -13      -1.58    40.02    -1.46    42.93     8.06   -30.07     0.00     0.02     0.00P   66.93R    8.89  
Aldershot        16   12   +2      -4.49    21.48    -4.96    64.19     8.35    18.91     0.16     9.81     3.35P    1.60R    0.02  
Hyde_United      16    2  -30     -11.11     0.41   -13.71    28.40     7.53   -56.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.51R   85.56  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10