Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 29 October 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 October 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           9   22  +11       3.54    81.16     1.32    75.78     8.05    33.39    25.90    46.00    63.05    76.86    94.32     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   20  +10       2.93    77.10     2.63    76.91     7.87    36.56    29.89    52.46    69.68    82.30    96.04     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   20   +9       2.82    75.47     1.62    70.11     8.16    24.59     8.87    20.68    34.90    51.43    81.94     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham         9   19   +4       3.17    78.23    -1.05    65.59     8.16    14.07     2.84     8.29    16.94    28.92    62.28     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton       9   18   +7       5.25    90.51     6.53    54.98     7.95     2.73     0.12     0.56     1.53     3.57    15.36     0.56R    0.02  
Everton           9   18   +4       3.40    79.74     0.76    64.02     8.10    13.20     1.87     5.91    12.66    22.60    54.96     0.02R    0.00  
Man_City          9   16  +10      -1.79    31.73     1.44    74.71     7.73    40.45    20.84    42.30    60.71    75.35    93.71     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   14   +2      -3.14    20.92    -5.91    70.91     7.93    29.38     9.63    23.66    39.85    56.84    85.30     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea           9   11   +1      -0.35    47.68     2.39    48.73     7.95    -2.31     0.01     0.05     0.22     0.65     4.11     3.93R    0.20  
Hull              9   11   -3       2.77    78.55     3.26    38.73     7.51   -19.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17    30.70R    4.48  
Newcastle         9   11   -4       0.16    52.72    -1.20    44.92     7.93   -14.60     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.19     1.55    10.28R    0.88  
West_Brom         9   10   -2      -0.65    44.69     0.74    48.60     8.08    -4.25     0.01     0.04     0.20     0.59     4.02     4.45R    0.28  
Aston_Villa       9   10   -3       0.78    59.49     2.08    45.38     7.96   -10.19     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.20     1.80     9.16R    0.86  
Fulham            9   10   -3      -1.87    32.84    -2.14    45.32     7.92   -10.15     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.21     1.88     8.79R    0.63  
West_Ham          9    9   +0      -2.11    30.73     1.66    44.92     7.90    -6.12     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.16     1.41     9.55R    0.94  
Cardiff           9    9   -5       0.20    53.84     0.38    39.48     7.97   -19.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.35    28.01R    4.51  
Stoke             9    8   -4      -1.73    33.32    -0.30    42.12     7.59   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.55    15.87R    1.48  
Norwich           9    8   -7      -1.60    35.21    -2.69    38.97     7.65   -21.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.20    30.19R    4.48  
Sunderland        9    4  -14      -5.27     7.80    -9.24    33.95     7.54   -30.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    56.35R   12.85  
Crystal_Palace    9    3  -13      -3.26    16.96    -2.29    24.48     7.05   -44.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.12R   68.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 October 2013, Brighton 1 1 Watford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         13   32  +17      10.22    98.20    11.00    86.50     8.88    31.23    35.27    56.28    91.61    64.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       13   29   +8       6.39    90.11     0.64    81.71     8.88    19.37    16.44    33.32    79.61    45.00P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             12   27   +8       6.56    91.50     2.14    81.76     9.28    20.11    17.52    34.34    78.58    46.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       13   24   +5       4.09    78.53     1.83    73.05     8.87    10.88     2.90     8.26    44.73    16.13P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         13   23   +8       0.25    51.24     0.55    78.27     9.23    23.56     9.89    22.59    68.21    35.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   13   23   +6       3.39    75.13     3.23    70.40     9.00     9.34     1.85     5.36    33.85    11.46P    0.23R    0.01  
Watford         13   22  +10       0.36    52.56     3.81    77.97     9.09    27.05     9.65    21.83    68.19    34.43P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           13   19   +4       0.80    56.38     3.60    66.81     9.10     7.85     0.77     2.40    21.44     6.41P    0.80R    0.05  
Huddersfield    13   17   +3       0.28    52.98     4.63    57.76     8.77    -3.76     0.04     0.20     3.84     0.82P    6.26R    0.78  
Leeds_United    13   17   +0       0.20    52.47     1.55    62.05     9.01    -0.41     0.15     0.70     9.73     2.51P    2.58R    0.28  
Bournemouth     13   17   -7       3.14    74.21     0.25    52.48     9.00   -24.23     0.02     0.06     1.08     0.18P   20.10R    4.13  
Blackburn       13   16   +3      -2.69    30.16     1.74    65.03     8.92     8.88     0.42     1.48    16.16     4.80P    1.12R    0.12  
Ipswich         13   16   +2      -0.59    45.93     3.88    60.15     9.04     0.33     0.12     0.47     6.95     1.71P    4.06R    0.49  
Wigan           11   15   +3      -3.16    25.07    -1.68    73.03     9.89    18.58     4.55    11.08    46.87    21.48P    0.28R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   13   15   +2      -3.66    23.64     0.74    58.03     9.08    -2.01     0.07     0.23     4.79     1.12P    6.30R    0.90  
Brighton        13   15   -1      -4.38    19.11    -3.42    64.47     8.77     5.60     0.27     1.08    14.03     4.36P    1.20R    0.09  
Millwall        13   13  -11      -1.98    35.45    -6.71    50.43     8.66   -23.40     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.07P   25.45R    5.71  
Doncaster       12   12   -9       0.29    54.30    -1.47    48.24     8.95   -24.76     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.07P   35.43R   10.16  
Charlton        12   11   -5      -4.61    16.92    -3.81    56.48     8.97    -6.18     0.01     0.11     3.03     0.72P    8.90R    1.38  
Birmingham      13   11   -6      -5.96    11.24    -4.56    57.06     9.03    -4.76     0.03     0.11     3.57     0.90P    8.21R    1.24  
Bolton          13   10   -9      -7.39     6.47    -8.39    55.59     9.04    -8.62     0.02     0.07     2.51     0.62P   10.98R    1.78  
Yeovil          13    9  -10      -2.55    31.09    -0.17    39.90     8.46   -33.59     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   71.97R   38.37  
Barnsley        13    9  -15      -3.65    22.64    -6.24    42.98     8.45   -34.25     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   59.69R   24.34  
Sheff_Wed       12    8   -6      -6.49     7.68    -3.14    47.45     8.87   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.09P   36.34R   10.14  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 October 2013, Notts_County 3 2 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   14   35  +22      10.52    98.01    13.99    86.78     8.94    33.84    12.44    37.61    93.70    51.72P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   13   32  +17       6.24    89.58     4.90    97.19     9.06    48.10    56.67    82.46    99.39    88.39P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    14   32  +15       4.93    81.80     2.87    91.79     9.02    40.03    28.24    63.24    97.71    74.69P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         14   26   +7       5.55    85.02     5.14    74.69     8.88    14.12     0.81     4.59    57.76    15.60P    0.11R    0.00  
Brentford       14   24   +2       2.24    66.06    -1.75    70.78     8.82     6.33     0.33     2.03    39.15    10.04P    0.39R    0.01  
Bradford        14   22  +10       4.02    77.46    11.84    61.47     9.09     2.99     0.04     0.24    11.18     1.97P    5.53R    0.48  
Walsall         14   22   +3       2.12    65.56     2.04    67.61     8.94     5.48     0.13     0.95    26.84     6.09P    1.22R    0.06  
Swindon         14   20   +6      -3.76    23.77    -0.94    74.64     8.96    22.15     0.79     4.99    59.01    21.67P    0.16R    0.00  
Port_Vale       14   20   +0       2.77    69.95     3.31    60.66     9.22    -5.58     0.01     0.16     9.39     1.70P    7.43R    0.82  
Rotherham       14   20   -1       4.60    80.86     5.26    56.65     9.13   -13.41     0.01     0.05     4.15     0.58P   15.87R    2.30  
MK_Dons         14   19   +3      -3.85    23.61    -2.59    69.95     9.06    13.51     0.31     1.84    37.67    11.15P    0.60R    0.03  
Crawley_Town    13   19   -1       2.08    66.20     0.72    60.37     9.09    -7.48     0.02     0.15     8.68     1.56P    7.70R    0.79  
Coventry        14   17   +9       4.39    78.60     3.82    69.04     9.13    21.70     0.18     1.53    35.33    10.51P    0.96R    0.06  
Colchester      14   16   -5       0.33    53.65     0.35    54.04     8.65   -13.93     0.00     0.01     1.95     0.29P   22.14R    3.58  
Carlisle        13   15  -11       1.03    59.49    -4.53    50.21     8.79   -28.67     0.00     0.01     0.77     0.11P   39.44R    9.55  
Oldham          14   14   -4      -2.40    32.92     0.39    51.68     8.65   -13.50     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.17P   30.70R    5.93  
Stevenage       14   14   -6      -2.93    29.83    -2.62    52.28     8.69   -14.69     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.21P   28.54R    5.23  
Shrewsbury      14   13   -3      -3.51    25.41     0.96    53.63     8.65    -7.51     0.00     0.01     1.72     0.32P   22.64R    3.88  
Gillingham      14   12   -7      -3.44    26.60    -0.89    48.13     8.93   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.10P   47.07R   13.64  
Sheff_Utd       14   12   -8      -8.25     5.61    -9.52    58.78     8.76    -3.61     0.01     0.04     5.58     1.41P    9.52R    1.10  
Tranmere        14   12  -14      -4.71    18.78   -10.24    49.97     8.58   -23.28     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.09P   39.44R    8.86  
Crewe           14   12  -19      -1.16    42.48    -8.70    42.66     8.32   -41.46     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   73.07R   34.34  
Notts_County    14   10   -9      -8.63     4.74    -7.95    51.51     8.85   -13.14     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.25P   31.24R    6.42  
Bristol_City    13    9   -6      -8.97     4.15    -5.85    56.76     9.74    -2.70     0.01     0.07     5.49     1.38P   16.22R    2.90  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 October 2013, York 4 1 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           14   26  +11       4.78    81.18     8.00    76.36     8.87    20.60    17.00    43.07    74.44    51.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Rochdale             14   26   +5       5.06    82.48     2.48    74.44     9.05    11.77    12.30    33.76    65.72    41.15P    0.07R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       14   25   +7       5.47    84.73     6.44    70.92     8.82    10.10     5.92    20.63    51.54    27.35P    0.15R    0.04  
Chesterfield         14   25   +7       2.10    65.42     1.61    77.50     8.86    19.59    20.36    47.80    78.20    56.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               14   24   +4       2.69    69.46     0.83    70.79     8.93     8.38     6.06    20.44    50.08    27.68P    0.20R    0.05  
Burton_Albion        14   24   +3       5.18    82.94     3.63    69.89     8.97     5.80     4.87    17.45    46.02    23.48P    0.29R    0.07  
Newport_County       14   23   +6       6.31    87.85     9.85    58.86     8.89    -6.24     0.40     2.13    10.22     3.54P    5.15R    1.82  
Dag_&_Red            14   23   +3       3.97    77.11     3.19    65.00     8.80     0.30     1.68     7.26    25.94    11.08P    1.08R    0.33  
Scunthorpe           14   23   +0       0.62    54.46    -4.66    72.11     9.28     7.79     8.59    25.45    55.53    33.85P    0.16R    0.05  
Morecambe            14   22   +1       2.91    70.76     1.21    64.89     8.89    -0.46     1.68     7.26    25.54    11.13P    1.16R    0.30  
Mansfield            14   21   +3       3.57    74.95     5.39    61.06     9.02    -2.23     0.71     3.48    14.97     5.71P    3.28R    1.17  
Wycombe              13   20   +3       1.42    61.06     1.84    65.80     9.07     3.87     2.25     9.29    29.82    13.93P    0.95R    0.29  
Southend             14   20   +1      -0.81    44.38    -1.47    68.83     8.83     8.33     3.82    14.78    42.10    22.10P    0.37R    0.12  
Hartlepool           14   18   +1      -3.38    26.83    -2.27    66.22     9.14     7.59     2.49    10.22    32.48    16.63P    0.91R    0.24  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   18   -3       2.10    66.50     1.96    54.66     8.59   -14.00     0.05     0.50     3.72     1.07P   12.36R    5.10  
Portsmouth           13   17   +0      -4.83    18.41    -5.97    72.96     9.63    16.33    10.87    30.58    60.44    40.55P    0.19R    0.04  
Cheltenham           14   16   -6      -2.65    31.57    -5.19    59.29     8.85    -6.87     0.32     1.93    10.48     3.88P    4.76R    1.83  
York                 14   15   -3      -1.53    39.67     0.78    52.68     8.50   -11.96     0.02     0.25     2.39     0.66P   16.76R    7.34  
Plymouth             14   15   -6      -1.70    37.86    -2.98    53.61     8.28   -12.28     0.04     0.29     2.63     0.76P   14.03R    5.69  
Bury                 14   13   -2      -6.95     9.97    -3.10    60.22     9.21     3.08     0.53     3.07    13.98     6.20P    4.51R    1.68  
Bristol_Rovers       14   11   -7      -6.06    12.30    -4.05    49.18     8.69   -15.47     0.02     0.13     1.15     0.34P   29.61R   15.09  
Torquay              14   11  -10      -6.16    11.98    -6.98    49.98     8.66   -17.00     0.02     0.15     1.19     0.38P   26.93R   13.59  
Northampton          14   10   -8      -7.94     6.34    -6.21    49.47     8.70   -14.40     0.01     0.08     1.16     0.35P   28.34R   14.83  
Accrington_Stanley   14   10  -10      -5.25    14.99    -4.33    45.14     8.42   -22.64     0.00     0.02     0.27     0.06P   48.71R   30.33  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Aldershot 2 3 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    16   38  +19      11.55    98.44    12.24    87.08     8.16    31.24    40.15    92.01    52.34P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    16   32  +11       2.54    66.96    -0.81    83.26     8.14    27.01    22.27    83.16    39.84P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            16   30  +14       2.41    66.48     4.90    82.60     8.24    31.94    20.20    81.70    37.89P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   16   28   +9       4.95    80.76     7.24    69.34     8.25     9.07     1.14    22.63     4.72P    0.23R    0.00  
Grimsby          16   27   +7      -0.14    48.67    -0.84    76.99     8.08    20.70     6.25    58.19    20.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Salisbury        16   27   +3       6.88    88.70     5.73    64.59     8.63    -2.27     0.33    10.12     1.92P    1.61R    0.02  
Nuneaton         16   26   +0       6.13    86.25     3.29    63.60     8.11    -5.55     0.17     7.21     1.14P    1.60R    0.02  
Barnet           16   25   +7      -3.09    28.93    -2.67    76.58     8.44    23.34     7.16    56.97    22.08P    0.03R    0.00  
Welling          16   25   +4       4.78    79.06     6.90    65.00     8.69     1.64     0.41    11.66     2.25P    1.46R    0.01  
Gateshead        16   25   +4       2.44    66.84     3.10    66.39     8.27     4.37     0.42    13.82     2.72P    0.67R    0.00  
Halifax          16   25   +3       4.61    78.78     6.03    63.16     8.88    -2.46     0.29     8.78     1.60P    2.47R    0.05  
Alfreton_Town    16   25   -1       5.35    82.99     3.21    64.06     8.40    -5.24     0.22     8.67     1.33P    1.64R    0.02  
Lincoln_City     16   22   +1       0.88    56.94     2.18    62.58     8.23     0.29     0.13     6.31     1.14P    2.08R    0.03  
Wrexham          16   19   -2      -7.36     8.97    -8.99    66.82     8.21     8.08     0.46    15.05     4.34P    0.66R    0.01  
Macclesfield     16   19   -2      -3.39    27.32    -2.60    59.39     8.17    -3.01     0.04     3.00     0.58P    4.67R    0.10  
Forest_Green     16   18   +0      -5.30    17.44    -2.23    62.08     8.31     4.36     0.12     6.00     1.37P    2.56R    0.04  
Southport        16   18   -6      -0.80    45.41    -0.94    53.85     8.02   -15.25     0.01     0.60     0.10P   16.02R    0.50  
Dartford         16   18   -9      -1.80    37.80    -5.43    53.18     8.09   -18.68     0.00     0.50     0.07P   19.06R    0.59  
Hereford         16   17   -3      -6.54    12.54    -5.43    60.05     8.12     0.13     0.03     3.32     0.74P    3.98R    0.08  
Tamworth         16   16   -9      -0.67    46.51    -1.03    50.19     7.94   -20.05     0.00     0.17     0.01P   30.07R    1.45  
Woking           16   14   -9      -4.76    20.02    -3.49    47.15     7.95   -22.70     0.00     0.06     0.01P   45.30R    2.97  
Chester          16   13  -13      -1.60    40.02    -1.52    43.12     8.11   -29.83     0.00     0.02     0.00P   65.94R    8.81  
Aldershot        16   12   +2      -4.51    21.56    -4.96    64.19     8.38    18.88     0.20    10.07     3.49P    1.52R    0.03  
Hyde_United      16    2  -30     -11.20     0.42   -13.89    28.52     7.55   -56.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.44R   85.28  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10