Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 28 October 2013 at 23:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 October 2013, Chelsea 2 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           9   22  +11       3.59    81.51     1.42    75.66     8.06    33.20    25.49    45.43    62.42    76.33    93.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   20  +10       2.90    76.62     2.56    76.86     7.93    36.50    30.05    52.43    69.39    82.03    95.79     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   20   +9       2.78    75.36     1.53    70.19     8.09    24.66     8.89    21.02    35.60    51.80    82.27     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         9   19   +4       3.15    78.03    -1.07    65.68     8.12    14.21     2.85     8.62    17.47    29.13    62.71     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       9   18   +7       5.26    90.58     6.53    55.09     7.99     2.94     0.13     0.64     1.68     3.79    15.56     0.53R    0.01  
Everton           9   18   +4       3.39    79.94     0.74    64.03     8.14    13.26     1.90     5.94    12.64    22.73    54.86     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          9   16  +10      -1.76    31.83     1.49    74.62     7.79    40.34    21.15    42.03    60.08    74.83    93.38     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   14   +2      -3.11    21.27    -5.83    70.95     7.96    29.49     9.52    23.74    40.08    57.25    85.31     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea           9   11   +1      -0.30    48.13     2.43    48.72     7.96    -2.31     0.01     0.06     0.21     0.64     4.15     3.84R    0.19  
Hull              9   11   -3       2.77    78.38     3.24    38.74     7.56   -20.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19    30.48R    4.57  
Newcastle         9   11   -4       0.15    52.62    -1.21    44.85     8.04   -14.65     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.18     1.61    10.59R    0.90  
West_Brom         9   10   -2      -0.74    43.85     0.57    48.84     8.05    -3.87     0.00     0.04     0.18     0.60     4.13     4.12R    0.29  
Aston_Villa       9   10   -3       0.81    59.98     2.12    45.18     7.98   -10.50     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.19     1.65     9.37R    0.91  
Fulham            9   10   -3      -1.80    33.58    -2.03    45.17     7.91   -10.37     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.21     1.70     9.03R    0.70  
West_Ham          9    9   +0      -2.11    30.71     1.68    44.90     7.95    -6.15     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.18     1.55     9.54R    0.93  
Cardiff           9    9   -5       0.20    54.16     0.42    39.34     7.84   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.29    28.63R    4.28  
Stoke             9    8   -4      -1.78    32.93    -0.40    42.26     7.66   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.64    15.55R    1.55  
Norwich           9    8   -7      -1.61    35.16    -2.69    39.04     7.72   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.23    29.74R    4.50  
Sunderland        9    4  -14      -5.20     8.30    -9.12    33.83     7.50   -30.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    57.27R   13.63  
Crystal_Palace    9    3  -13      -3.32    16.74    -2.38    24.65     7.12   -44.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.29R   67.54  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 October 2013, Brighton 1 1 Watford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         13   32  +17      10.23    98.21    11.05    86.40     8.97    31.09    34.80    55.76    91.19    64.48P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       13   29   +8       6.41    89.91     0.67    81.69     8.97    19.31    16.88    33.57    79.56    45.03P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             12   27   +8       6.56    91.73     2.17    81.90     9.24    20.32    17.73    35.01    79.49    46.89P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       13   24   +5       4.01    78.15     1.70    73.20     8.89    11.10     3.16     8.63    45.69    16.89P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         13   23   +8       0.41    52.68     0.79    77.84     9.29    22.88     9.33    21.61    66.47    34.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   13   23   +6       3.37    75.01     3.16    70.50     9.03     9.53     1.97     5.64    34.36    11.81P    0.22R    0.01  
Watford         13   22  +10       0.36    52.43     3.83    78.10     9.07    27.21    10.04    22.41    68.77    35.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           13   19   +4       0.76    56.23     3.57    66.91     9.11     7.96     0.78     2.56    22.16     6.62P    0.78R    0.06  
Huddersfield    13   17   +3       0.24    52.48     4.61    57.82     8.79    -3.64     0.06     0.23     3.99     0.87P    6.26R    0.84  
Leeds_United    13   17   +0       0.25    52.78     1.59    61.96     8.97    -0.48     0.17     0.65     9.30     2.32P    2.60R    0.28  
Bournemouth     13   17   -7       3.09    73.86     0.14    52.57     9.04   -24.03     0.02     0.05     1.28     0.24P   19.82R    4.05  
Blackburn       13   16   +3      -2.60    30.81     1.85    64.95     9.03     8.75     0.43     1.51    16.47     5.02P    1.17R    0.11  
Ipswich         13   16   +2      -0.61    45.85     3.86    60.05     8.95     0.15     0.10     0.41     6.57     1.58P    4.19R    0.45  
Wigan           11   15   +3      -3.02    26.15    -1.46    72.62     9.83    17.91     4.13    10.16    45.35    20.38P    0.27R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   13   15   +2      -3.61    23.87     0.82    57.90     9.07    -2.20     0.07     0.26     4.59     1.19P    6.63R    0.88  
Brighton        13   15   -1      -4.34    19.41    -3.35    64.35     8.79     5.42     0.26     1.11    14.17     4.43P    1.24R    0.14  
Millwall        13   13  -11      -1.99    35.35    -6.72    50.55     8.73   -23.22     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.09P   25.63R    5.76  
Doncaster       12   12   -9       0.30    54.29    -1.46    48.15     9.04   -24.96     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P   36.10R   10.56  
Charlton        12   11   -5      -4.63    17.07    -3.82    56.53     9.01    -6.14     0.02     0.14     3.09     0.78P    8.82R    1.44  
Birmingham      13   11   -6      -6.05    11.15    -4.72    57.26     9.03    -4.42     0.04     0.18     3.72     1.03P    7.67R    1.21  
Bolton          13   10   -9      -7.53     6.19    -8.64    55.78     9.00    -8.27     0.02     0.08     2.45     0.63P   10.60R    1.86  
Yeovil          13    9  -10      -2.54    30.84    -0.14    39.99     8.50   -33.48     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   71.56R   38.05  
Barnsley        13    9  -15      -3.70    22.40    -6.33    42.99     8.46   -34.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   59.70R   24.19  
Sheff_Wed       12    8   -6      -6.51     7.65    -3.16    47.53     8.93   -16.71     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.08P   36.67R   10.08  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 October 2013, Bradford 1 2 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   14   35  +22      10.50    97.90    13.95    86.79     8.98    33.85    13.00    37.70    93.66    51.56P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   13   32  +17       6.28    89.79     4.99    96.96     9.03    47.73    55.66    81.95    99.38    88.02P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    14   32  +15       4.96    82.03     2.92    91.84     9.04    40.05    28.55    63.57    97.62    75.03P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         14   26   +7       5.60    85.32     5.23    74.55     8.96    13.95     0.83     4.60    56.70    15.40P    0.10R    0.00  
Brentford       14   24   +2       2.28    66.29    -1.69    70.71     8.86     6.23     0.30     1.92    38.94    10.02P    0.43R    0.01  
Bradford        14   22  +10       3.99    77.16    11.81    61.59     9.10     3.12     0.03     0.26    11.45     2.16P    5.41R    0.46  
Walsall         14   22   +3       2.06    65.41     1.98    67.65     8.91     5.55     0.13     0.92    27.07     5.98P    1.14R    0.08  
Swindon         14   20   +6      -3.84    23.33    -1.03    74.68     8.95    22.23     0.95     5.01    59.32    21.72P    0.13R    0.01  
Port_Vale       14   20   +0       2.93    70.97     3.53    60.15     9.12    -6.38     0.02     0.16     8.65     1.47P    8.09R    0.85  
Rotherham       14   20   -1       4.51    80.29     5.12    57.04     9.16   -12.78     0.01     0.04     4.58     0.66P   14.98R    1.99  
MK_Dons         14   19   +3      -3.86    23.44    -2.68    70.20     9.02    13.87     0.29     1.87    38.93    11.56P    0.55R    0.03  
Crawley_Town    13   19   -1       2.09    66.34     0.75    60.29     9.16    -7.56     0.01     0.16     8.74     1.58P    7.89R    0.88  
Coventry        14   17   +9       4.44    79.07     3.86    68.92     9.07    21.46     0.21     1.65    34.69    10.40P    0.86R    0.05  
Colchester      14   16   -5       0.32    53.70     0.35    53.98     8.68   -14.00     0.00     0.01     1.83     0.29P   22.33R    3.80  
Carlisle        13   15  -11       1.07    59.88    -4.55    50.19     8.70   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.10P   38.94R    9.33  
Oldham          13   14   -3      -1.34    40.19     0.87    52.92     8.84   -12.47     0.00     0.01     1.56     0.26P   26.03R    4.78  
Stevenage       14   14   -6      -2.98    29.05    -2.71    52.26     8.66   -14.63     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.18P   28.23R    5.35  
Shrewsbury      14   13   -3      -3.53    25.27     0.94    53.61     8.61    -7.54     0.00     0.01     1.72     0.32P   22.32R    3.68  
Gillingham      14   12   -7      -3.26    27.42    -0.65    47.88     8.82   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P   47.98R   13.64  
Sheff_Utd       14   12   -8      -8.33     5.48    -9.65    58.94     8.87    -3.44     0.01     0.07     6.14     1.61P    9.36R    1.08  
Tranmere        14   12  -14      -4.75    18.45   -10.28    50.11     8.62   -23.03     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.13P   38.28R    8.59  
Crewe           14   12  -19      -1.17    42.37    -8.74    42.79     8.28   -41.26     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   72.61R   33.16  
Bristol_City    13    9   -6      -9.06     3.94    -5.96    56.74     9.76    -2.68     0.01     0.08     5.40     1.35P   16.13R    2.95  
Notts_County    13    7  -10      -9.84     2.02    -8.37    49.87     9.07   -14.02     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.15P   38.22R    9.28  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           14   26  +11       4.83    81.31     8.08    76.25     8.83    20.42    15.83    40.94    73.79    49.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             14   26   +5       5.21    83.30     2.68    74.25     9.01    11.46    10.91    31.62    64.19    39.14P    0.06R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       14   25   +7       5.45    84.73     6.37    71.03     8.89    10.28     5.82    20.38    50.80    27.07P    0.13R    0.03  
Chesterfield         14   25   +7       2.16    65.71     1.67    77.29     8.81    19.28    18.33    45.39    77.11    54.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               14   24   +4       2.71    69.38     0.86    70.84     8.92     8.42     5.71    19.88    49.55    26.99P    0.15R    0.03  
Burton_Albion        14   24   +3       5.27    83.46     3.76    70.04     9.07     6.07     4.82    17.27    45.79    23.22P    0.28R    0.08  
Newport_County       14   23   +6       6.29    88.04     9.81    58.88     8.94    -6.19     0.36     2.09    10.07     3.42P    4.86R    1.67  
Dag_&_Red            14   23   +3       4.02    77.30     3.26    64.92     8.79     0.15     1.36     6.61    24.89    10.21P    0.93R    0.27  
Scunthorpe           13   23   +3       1.55    61.35    -2.31    75.61     9.44    13.84    15.65    38.26    68.98    47.22P    0.08R    0.03  
Morecambe            14   22   +1       2.92    70.97     1.22    64.76     8.92    -0.58     1.47     6.64    24.65    10.42P    1.17R    0.34  
Mansfield            14   21   +3       3.49    74.78     5.29    61.03     9.06    -2.24     0.68     3.35    14.68     5.61P    2.97R    1.03  
Wycombe              13   20   +3       1.39    60.63     1.77    65.61     9.10     3.58     2.01     8.68    28.32    13.21P    0.92R    0.28  
Southend             14   20   +1      -0.70    45.15    -1.34    68.66     8.82     8.11     3.40    13.53    40.72    20.97P    0.33R    0.08  
Hartlepool           14   18   +1      -3.40    26.68    -2.27    66.13     9.18     7.45     2.22     9.66    31.53    15.88P    0.86R    0.25  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   18   -3       2.10    66.38     1.92    54.71     8.58   -13.92     0.09     0.53     3.58     1.00P   11.16R    4.37  
Portsmouth           13   17   +0      -4.94    17.86    -6.12    72.98     9.60    16.30    10.47    29.37    59.88    39.40P    0.20R    0.05  
Cheltenham           14   16   -6      -2.63    31.88    -5.14    59.34     8.87    -6.74     0.25     1.89    10.17     3.82P    4.61R    1.71  
Plymouth             14   15   -6      -1.64    38.29    -2.91    53.64     8.33   -12.18     0.03     0.26     2.36     0.70P   12.83R    5.26  
Bury                 14   13   -2      -7.11     9.38    -3.36    60.55     9.28     3.57     0.57     3.22    14.52     6.50P    3.99R    1.52  
York                 13   12   -6      -2.69    30.37    -1.55    48.95     8.67   -17.82     0.01     0.09     1.03     0.25P   29.14R   15.07  
Bristol_Rovers       14   11   -7      -5.93    12.41    -3.90    48.97     8.62   -15.74     0.01     0.08     0.89     0.27P   28.56R   14.58  
Torquay              14   11  -10      -6.27    11.31    -7.17    50.07     8.58   -16.84     0.01     0.12     1.13     0.34P   24.63R   12.22  
Northampton          14   10   -8      -7.95     6.27    -6.23    49.43     8.72   -14.43     0.01     0.12     1.14     0.34P   26.51R   13.50  
Accrington_Stanley   14   10  -10      -5.27    14.95    -4.39    45.35     8.37   -22.25     0.00     0.02     0.23     0.06P   45.60R   27.64  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Aldershot 2 3 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    16   38  +19      11.43    98.36    12.06    87.22     8.21    31.45    40.61    92.24    52.46P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    16   32  +11       2.57    67.11    -0.77    83.24     8.12    26.97    21.90    82.98    39.52P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            16   30  +14       2.42    66.51     4.87    82.49     8.21    31.78    19.79    81.19    37.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   16   28   +9       4.91    81.02     7.13    69.42     8.21     9.18     1.14    23.04     4.86P    0.22R    0.00  
Grimsby          16   27   +7      -0.13    48.84    -0.81    76.86     8.17    20.46     6.27    57.76    20.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        16   27   +3       6.86    88.61     5.71    64.63     8.63    -2.25     0.36    10.18     1.84P    1.57R    0.01  
Nuneaton         16   26   +0       6.21    86.60     3.39    63.52     8.05    -5.64     0.14     6.86     1.11P    1.64R    0.02  
Barnet           16   25   +7      -3.13    28.99    -2.74    76.77     8.43    23.62     7.42    57.70    22.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          16   25   +4       4.83    79.29     6.94    65.00     8.84     1.60     0.45    12.02     2.25P    1.59R    0.01  
Gateshead        16   25   +4       2.46    66.94     3.14    66.37     8.27     4.36     0.46    13.67     2.76P    0.63R    0.01  
Halifax          16   25   +3       4.54    78.40     5.97    63.38     8.91    -2.15     0.27     8.91     1.59P    2.49R    0.04  
Alfreton_Town    16   25   -1       5.32    82.92     3.12    64.23     8.32    -5.03     0.21     8.70     1.41P    1.50R    0.01  
Lincoln_City     16   22   +1       0.91    57.02     2.23    62.49     8.22     0.15     0.12     6.15     1.17P    2.13R    0.04  
Wrexham          16   19   -2      -7.36     9.18    -8.98    66.83     8.25     8.11     0.45    15.22     4.38P    0.59R    0.00  
Macclesfield     16   19   -2      -3.29    28.11    -2.45    59.16     8.11    -3.39     0.04     2.72     0.55P    4.99R    0.07  
Forest_Green     16   18   +0      -5.31    17.28    -2.23    62.05     8.40     4.32     0.12     6.24     1.45P    2.77R    0.03  
Southport        16   18   -6      -0.87    44.87    -1.03    54.07     8.04   -14.92     0.01     0.62     0.11P   15.44R    0.51  
Dartford         16   18   -9      -1.80    37.53    -5.36    53.14     8.09   -18.73     0.00     0.47     0.07P   18.54R    0.66  
Hereford         16   17   -3      -6.54    12.42    -5.45    59.97     8.20     0.09     0.04     3.41     0.80P    4.18R    0.06  
Tamworth         16   16   -9      -0.72    45.90    -1.05    50.16     7.97   -20.18     0.00     0.17     0.02P   30.15R    1.52  
Woking           16   14   -9      -4.74    20.13    -3.47    47.15     7.99   -22.66     0.00     0.05     0.01P   44.83R    3.01  
Chester          16   13  -13      -1.57    40.00    -1.41    42.95     8.06   -30.07     0.00     0.01     0.00P   66.70R    8.93  
Aldershot        16   12   +2      -4.44    21.78    -4.91    64.15     8.38    18.84     0.19     9.71     3.27P    1.60R    0.03  
Hyde_United      16    2  -30     -11.23     0.37   -13.89    28.61     7.54   -55.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.41R   85.04  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10