Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 20 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 October 2013, Aston_Villa 0 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           8   19   +9       3.02    78.14     1.16    75.00     8.24    32.93    24.76    45.88    63.33    77.29    93.96     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           8   17   +9       1.52    65.43     1.94    74.90     8.11    34.81    23.90    45.81    64.05    78.07    94.40     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         8   17   +6       2.18    71.47     0.21    68.18     8.31    21.01     6.67    16.89    30.42    46.25    77.62     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +11      -0.61    41.96     2.13    76.20     8.05    41.71    30.80    53.50    70.59    82.94    95.83     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         8   16   +3       2.35    72.58    -0.93    64.77     8.33    14.27     2.83     8.43    17.39    29.79    62.69     0.02R    0.00  
Southampton       8   15   +5       4.13    86.67     5.26    52.76     8.21    -0.12     0.07     0.42     1.20     2.93    12.36     1.53R    0.09  
Everton           8   15   +2       2.25    71.95    -0.54    61.94     8.31    10.53     1.31     4.50    10.21    19.45    48.60     0.06R    0.00  
Man_Utd           8   11   +1      -3.93    14.46    -5.54    70.16     8.17    29.62     9.56    24.04    40.95    58.28    85.05     0.00R    0.00  
Hull              8   11   -2       3.37    83.66     3.16    39.34     7.81   -20.24     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.06     0.41    29.51R    5.23  
Newcastle         8   11   -3       1.41    65.62    -0.41    46.46     8.24   -13.20     0.01     0.06     0.20     0.51     3.31     8.32R    0.94  
Swansea           8   10   +1       0.16    52.75     2.63    49.58     8.20    -1.69     0.02     0.14     0.47     1.25     6.58     3.49R    0.25  
West_Brom         8   10   +1      -0.27    48.07     2.12    50.36     8.29    -0.49     0.04     0.17     0.59     1.51     8.26     3.14R    0.23  
Aston_Villa       8   10   -1       1.67    68.70     3.38    47.19     8.24    -7.47     0.02     0.06     0.27     0.73     3.99     6.65R    0.78  
West_Ham          8    8   +0      -2.04    30.49     1.35    45.08     8.18    -6.56     0.00     0.04     0.12     0.36     2.46    10.16R    1.34  
Stoke             8    8   -3      -1.12    38.82    -0.57    42.80     7.77   -10.83     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.12     1.08    14.72R    1.63  
Cardiff           8    8   -5       0.34    55.86     0.21    39.40     8.19   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.50    30.40R    6.05  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.84    30.77    -2.71    44.74     8.36   -11.51     0.01     0.03     0.11     0.35     2.43    11.84R    1.51  
Norwich           8    7   -7      -1.09    39.85    -2.40    39.61     8.00   -21.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.45    28.59R    5.33  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.17    25.02    -0.41    27.25     7.64   -39.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.40R   52.50  
Sunderland        8    1  -15      -6.75     1.61   -10.04    31.87     7.81   -31.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    67.16R   24.13  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 October 2013, Leeds_United 4 0 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         12   29  +15       9.17    97.46     9.89    84.05     9.17    27.93    23.76    42.46    84.11    52.30P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             11   27  +10       7.28    94.82     3.31    83.81     9.58    23.13    23.40    40.90    81.88    52.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       12   26   +7       5.51    87.37     0.90    81.21     9.24    20.19    15.21    30.15    74.86    41.56P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   12   23   +8       4.63    83.23     4.99    73.54     9.21    13.95     3.68     9.40    44.24    17.07P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackpool       12   23   +5       4.65    82.53     2.07    73.92     9.07    11.68     3.55     9.14    45.37    16.97P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         12   22   +8       1.19    59.03     1.43    80.06     9.55    25.81    13.53    27.43    71.84    40.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Watford         12   21  +10       0.78    56.13     3.97    78.22     9.39    26.82     9.84    21.38    65.57    33.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           12   18   +4       1.39    61.44     3.95    67.80     9.35     8.78     0.90     2.88    23.16     6.88P    0.67R    0.04  
Leeds_United    12   17   +1       1.34    61.48     2.15    63.36     9.13     0.67     0.24     0.93    10.93     2.96P    1.81R    0.17  
Bournemouth     12   17   -6       3.91    79.46     0.07    52.60     9.23   -25.44     0.01     0.05     1.24     0.23P   19.18R    3.46  
Blackburn       12   15   +3      -2.46    30.97     1.55    64.96     9.23     8.23     0.39     1.42    14.88     4.61P    1.34R    0.13  
Ipswich         12   15   +2      -0.49    46.81     3.51    59.76     9.21    -0.84     0.11     0.41     5.85     1.45P    4.41R    0.45  
Wigan           10   14   +3      -2.69    27.23    -1.53    73.43    10.16    18.69     4.85    11.41    45.81    21.63P    0.28R    0.01  
Huddersfield    12   14   +2      -1.11    41.67     3.92    56.19     8.94    -4.55     0.01     0.11     2.61     0.58P    8.29R    1.06  
Brighton        12   14   -1      -3.92    20.60    -3.28    64.98     9.01     5.85     0.37     1.28    14.44     4.61P    1.08R    0.08  
Middlesbrough   12   12   -2      -4.20    19.22    -1.54    55.48     9.29    -7.43     0.03     0.12     2.43     0.55P   10.75R    1.47  
Doncaster       11   12   -5       0.58    56.76     0.65    51.22     9.39   -18.05     0.01     0.04     0.94     0.18P   23.30R    4.74  
Millwall        12   12  -11      -2.08    34.25    -7.47    49.13     8.78   -26.08     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.06P   29.92R    5.91  
Charlton        11   10   -5      -4.37    17.12    -3.95    56.61     9.18    -6.62     0.03     0.17     2.81     0.79P    8.29R    1.18  
Birmingham      12   10   -6      -5.94    10.41    -5.10    56.94     9.35    -5.63     0.02     0.15     3.28     0.80P    8.50R    1.06  
Bolton          12    9   -9      -6.88     7.05    -8.23    56.77     9.32    -7.42     0.04     0.16     3.06     0.76P    8.88R    1.10  
Barnsley        12    8  -15      -3.18    24.93    -6.10    43.52     8.87   -33.88     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   55.43R   18.43  
Sheff_Wed       11    7   -6      -6.29     7.33    -3.39    47.71     9.11   -16.98     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.07P   34.63R    7.91  
Yeovil          12    6  -12      -3.93    19.02    -1.75    36.12     8.54   -38.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.07R   52.80  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Brentford 3 1 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   12   32  +23      10.40    98.81    15.16    88.17     9.41    37.50    14.10    36.92    93.74    50.80P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    12   31  +16       7.34    94.18     4.55    96.82     9.39    47.03    46.36    74.44    98.95    82.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   11   26  +14       4.58    83.77     4.30    94.34     9.64    45.76    34.43    65.38    97.87    76.90P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         12   22   +6       4.79    83.75     4.96    73.98     9.42    13.93     0.70     3.33    51.36    12.62P    0.19R    0.01  
Bradford        12   21  +11       4.88    83.34    11.47    61.49     9.47     1.23     0.03     0.24    10.74     1.78P    5.00R    0.44  
Swindon         12   20   +9      -0.98    41.42     2.04    80.64     9.24    30.13     2.87    11.87    78.91    33.06P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         12   19   +5      -0.68    44.26     0.01    76.27     9.42    21.06     1.20     5.44    62.12    20.51P    0.09R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    11   19   +4       3.94    79.92     4.41    65.79     9.67     1.65     0.11     0.66    20.31     3.72P    2.25R    0.16  
Walsall         12   19   +2       1.72    63.86     0.82    65.79     9.28     2.02     0.06     0.49    19.07     3.73P    1.79R    0.12  
Rotherham       12   19   +0       5.86    88.21     5.65    58.89     9.66   -12.15     0.02     0.09     6.43     0.83P   10.10R    1.41  
Brentford       12   18   +0      -0.72    44.41    -3.33    66.49     9.29     2.61     0.06     0.54    21.51     4.80P    1.44R    0.08  
Port_Vale       12   14   -4       0.46    55.03     0.86    54.54     9.63   -14.42     0.00     0.02     2.96     0.42P   19.98R    3.75  
Shrewsbury      12   12   -2      -1.94    35.11     1.82    55.86     9.04    -5.92     0.00     0.02     2.86     0.43P   14.39R    2.13  
Colchester      12   12   -6      -1.40    39.73    -1.27    50.64     8.94   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.13P   32.23R    6.96  
Carlisle        11   12  -10      -0.18    49.94    -5.24    48.59     9.24   -30.21     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.06P   42.28R   11.74  
Crewe           12   12  -14       0.24    54.13    -5.89    47.14     8.94   -33.43     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.03P   48.83R   14.57  
Coventry        12   11   +6       1.58    62.18     1.51    64.15     9.63    15.90     0.06     0.43    17.62     4.74P    3.01R    0.30  
Oldham          11   11   -2      -2.65    28.70     0.33    51.02     9.17   -14.20     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.16P   30.21R    6.65  
Gillingham      12    9   -7      -3.75    22.44    -0.95    47.36     9.46   -20.27     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P   46.03R   14.68  
Sheff_Utd       12    8  -10      -9.14     2.76   -10.98    56.73     9.30    -6.92     0.00     0.04     3.77     0.92P   12.75R    1.95  
Stevenage       12    8  -11      -5.16    13.30    -5.96    46.64     8.95   -23.49     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P   48.97R   15.29  
Tranmere        12    8  -15      -6.00    10.03   -11.24    47.68     9.07   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.05P   45.01R   12.99  
Notts_County    11    7   -8      -7.50     4.67    -6.92    54.43     9.70    -9.50     0.00     0.02     2.77     0.58P   19.78R    3.73  
Bristol_City    11    6   -7      -8.76     2.68    -6.10    56.46    10.26    -3.81     0.00     0.04     5.25     1.13P   15.64R    3.06  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         12   23   +7       3.56    76.50     2.61    79.93     9.22    21.99    23.97    52.83    82.39    61.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   23   +6       4.90    83.78     3.58    75.05     9.53    14.08    11.31    32.13    64.62    39.73P    0.06R    0.01  
Exeter               12   23   +5       4.27    80.46     1.63    73.13     9.50    10.21     8.17    25.43    56.71    32.89P    0.07R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           12   22   +9       4.12    79.93     6.90    75.15     9.39    18.73    11.27    33.06    66.49    41.38P    0.06R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       12   22   +6       5.39    86.21     5.71    70.68     9.42     9.10     4.88    17.80    46.74    24.08P    0.22R    0.04  
Morecambe            12   22   +5       5.03    84.69     4.28    70.61     9.42     8.00     5.00    17.11    46.55    23.36P    0.23R    0.04  
Wycombe              12   20   +4       2.70    70.94     2.70    68.15     9.42     6.30     2.90    11.91    36.61    17.49P    0.45R    0.10  
Mansfield            12   20   +4       4.84    83.81     5.86    63.26     9.55    -0.90     1.12     5.14    20.24     8.11P    1.81R    0.52  
Southend             12   20   +4       1.85    64.95     1.46    74.05     9.25    14.92     8.75    28.22    61.75    37.46P    0.06R    0.01  
Newport_County       12   19   +4       5.18    85.58     8.19    55.57     9.39   -11.48     0.17     1.05     5.71     1.82P    9.51R    3.40  
AFC_Wimbledon        12   18   +1       3.63    77.77     4.15    58.09     9.06    -8.95     0.18     1.32     7.69     2.37P    5.32R    1.62  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +0       2.61    70.60     1.74    65.32     9.52     0.72     1.46     7.16    26.03    11.06P    1.24R    0.36  
Scunthorpe           11   17   +1      -1.22    39.88    -3.64    71.29    10.02    10.36     6.83    21.03    50.01    29.33P    0.32R    0.07  
Dag_&_Red            12   17   +0       0.89    57.41     0.56    59.56     9.23    -6.12     0.36     2.03    10.63     3.72P    3.98R    1.23  
Portsmouth           12   16   +0      -4.49    19.30    -6.05    74.29     9.87    17.82    10.93    30.85    62.56    41.51P    0.13R    0.03  
Hartlepool           12   15   +0      -3.19    26.51    -2.58    65.88     9.69     6.43     2.07     8.67    29.20    14.54P    1.03R    0.28  
Cheltenham           12   12   -9      -3.32    25.39    -7.26    56.39     9.29   -12.37     0.12     0.95     5.83     2.02P    8.40R    3.08  
York                 11   11   -4      -1.90    34.68    -0.90    50.75     9.05   -15.81     0.02     0.20     1.63     0.46P   20.95R    9.02  
Plymouth             12   11   -7      -2.74    28.60    -3.49    51.97     8.85   -14.10     0.02     0.21     1.87     0.55P   16.53R    6.25  
Bristol_Rovers       12   10   -6      -4.77    16.05    -3.57    50.79     9.14   -14.88     0.03     0.17     1.68     0.47P   20.97R    9.31  
Torquay              12   10   -8      -5.23    14.04    -6.20    51.73     9.15   -15.18     0.03     0.24     2.13     0.64P   18.15R    7.77  
Bury                 12    9   -3      -7.88     5.24    -3.63    58.79     9.78     1.78     0.38     2.24    11.01     4.77P    5.68R    2.02  
Northampton          12    9   -7      -6.47     8.77    -5.64    51.14     9.11   -13.52     0.02     0.23     1.84     0.65P   19.36R    8.22  
Accrington_Stanley   12    4  -12      -8.61     2.10    -6.42    40.29     8.71   -27.13     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   65.46R   46.61  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Aldershot 2 3 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    16   38  +19      11.54    98.47    12.21    86.97     8.13    31.11    39.09    92.02    51.46P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    16   32  +11       2.51    66.64    -0.91    83.43     8.15    27.30    22.93    83.47    40.24P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            16   30  +14       2.43    66.61     4.91    82.55     8.28    31.85    20.28    81.20    37.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   16   28   +9       4.95    80.76     7.24    69.38     8.23     9.12     1.15    22.85     4.84P    0.24R    0.00  
Grimsby          16   27   +7      -0.12    48.88    -0.83    76.90     8.11    20.54     6.35    58.00    20.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        16   27   +3       6.91    88.87     5.78    64.51     8.61    -2.35     0.30     9.94     1.86P    1.52R    0.01  
Nuneaton         16   26   +0       6.19    86.41     3.38    63.51     8.07    -5.69     0.16     6.85     1.07P    1.69R    0.02  
Barnet           16   25   +7      -3.15    28.74    -2.74    76.78     8.40    23.59     7.35    57.88    22.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          16   25   +4       4.71    78.71     6.77    65.11     8.76     1.82     0.49    12.16     2.38P    1.44R    0.02  
Gateshead        16   25   +4       2.42    66.69     3.10    66.45     8.23     4.50     0.41    14.05     2.88P    0.69R    0.01  
Halifax          16   25   +3       4.56    78.60     6.06    63.25     8.85    -2.41     0.24     8.64     1.45P    2.49R    0.05  
Alfreton_Town    16   25   -1       5.35    83.03     3.22    64.17     8.36    -5.10     0.26     8.87     1.39P    1.67R    0.02  
Lincoln_City     16   22   +1       0.85    56.76     2.16    62.42     8.15     0.12     0.11     5.95     1.09P    2.14R    0.02  
Wrexham          16   19   -2      -7.33     9.13    -8.96    66.85     8.24     8.13     0.47    15.12     4.51P    0.60R    0.00  
Macclesfield     16   19   -2      -3.31    27.88    -2.47    59.26     8.23    -3.25     0.05     2.80     0.53P    4.97R    0.12  
Forest_Green     16   18   +0      -5.34    16.87    -2.29    62.12     8.27     4.42     0.11     5.99     1.37P    2.48R    0.04  
Southport        16   18   -6      -0.86    44.93    -1.04    54.05     8.09   -14.87     0.00     0.61     0.08P   15.70R    0.50  
Dartford         16   18   -9      -1.75    38.17    -5.32    53.04     8.06   -18.92     0.00     0.48     0.05P   19.30R    0.70  
Hereford         16   17   -3      -6.47    12.62    -5.37    59.91     8.10    -0.04     0.06     3.21     0.79P    4.07R    0.06  
Tamworth         16   16   -9      -0.65    46.63    -0.94    50.09     7.88   -20.28     0.00     0.13     0.02P   29.97R    1.52  
Woking           16   14   -9      -4.82    19.68    -3.61    47.28     7.96   -22.46     0.00     0.06     0.00P   44.51R    2.84  
Chester          16   13  -13      -1.65    39.34    -1.59    43.07     8.12   -29.87     0.00     0.02     0.00P   66.43R    8.58  
Aldershot        16   12   +2      -4.47    21.62    -4.91    64.21     8.31    18.92     0.19     9.70     3.39P    1.61R    0.03  
Hyde_United      16    2  -30     -11.19     0.43   -13.83    28.51     7.53   -56.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.46R   85.46  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10