Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 19 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Arsenal 4 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           8   19   +9       2.99    77.87     1.06    75.04     8.28    33.15    24.86    46.39    64.14    78.06    94.15     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           8   17   +9       1.47    65.23     1.81    75.09     8.12    35.13    24.56    46.57    65.44    79.44    94.70     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         8   17   +6       2.18    71.58     0.19    68.30     8.31    21.19     6.86    17.47    31.18    47.70    79.03     0.01R    0.00  
Man_City          8   16  +11      -0.57    42.14     2.20    76.16     7.98    41.66    30.52    53.48    70.85    83.55    96.11     0.00     0.00  
Southampton       8   15   +5       4.07    86.17     5.20    52.80     8.28    -0.15     0.13     0.47     1.32     3.09    13.42     1.53R    0.09  
Everton           8   15   +2       2.25    72.08    -0.55    61.89     8.29    10.47     1.36     4.53    10.47    19.68    49.77     0.09R    0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.11    61.65    -2.34    62.74     8.59    11.67     1.94     6.05    12.88    23.21    53.93     0.09R    0.00  
Man_Utd           8   11   +1      -3.94    14.41    -5.55    70.23     8.15    29.73     9.66    24.41    41.58    59.42    85.71     0.00R    0.00  
Hull              8   11   -2       3.42    84.10     3.28    39.29     7.77   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.39    29.69R    5.25  
Newcastle         8   11   -3       1.37    65.22    -0.47    46.71     8.30   -12.88     0.01     0.06     0.25     0.67     3.74     8.07R    0.87  
Swansea           8   10   +1       0.16    52.72     2.63    49.49     8.14    -1.82     0.03     0.13     0.41     1.15     6.71     3.69R    0.25  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.59    78.18     4.72    49.20     8.45    -4.51     0.03     0.14     0.52     1.44     7.13     4.56R    0.42  
West_Brom         8   10   +1      -0.25    48.12     2.18    50.21     8.33    -0.75     0.03     0.21     0.63     1.64     8.22     3.35R    0.29  
West_Ham          8    8   +0      -2.01    30.64     1.37    44.92     8.18    -6.81     0.01     0.05     0.15     0.37     2.39    10.63R    1.33  
Stoke             8    8   -3      -1.13    38.69    -0.58    42.78     7.75   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     1.06    14.80R    1.72  
Cardiff           8    8   -5       0.40    56.48     0.30    39.24     8.15   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.58    31.14R    6.05  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.83    30.68    -2.69    44.73     8.27   -11.52     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.33     2.41    11.75R    1.46  
Norwich           8    7   -7      -1.12    39.53    -2.39    39.65     8.02   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.50    28.76R    5.39  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.18    24.63    -0.41    27.30     7.77   -38.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    84.13R   52.39  
Sunderland        8    1  -15      -6.71     1.62    -9.96    31.77     7.79   -31.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    67.72R   24.47  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Barnsley 3 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         12   29  +15       9.13    97.25     9.88    84.06     9.23    27.95    23.76    41.98    83.79    51.89P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             11   27  +10       7.22    94.59     3.25    83.92     9.53    23.30    23.42    40.92    82.00    52.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       12   26   +7       5.47    86.86     0.86    81.23     9.23    20.21    14.93    29.71    75.04    41.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   12   23   +8       4.66    83.48     5.04    73.56     9.24    14.01     3.59     9.27    44.52    16.72P    0.08R    0.00  
Blackpool       12   23   +5       4.60    82.20     2.03    74.06     9.10    11.84     3.55     9.35    45.65    17.53P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         12   22   +8       1.22    59.24     1.46    80.08     9.48    25.80    13.11    26.94    71.70    39.94P    0.03R    0.00  
Watford         12   21  +10       0.71    55.27     3.86    78.66     9.40    27.44    10.41    22.47    67.05    34.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           12   18   +4       1.31    60.87     3.84    67.82     9.38     8.87     0.91     2.97    23.19     7.21P    0.62R    0.04  
Bournemouth     12   17   -6       3.89    79.27    -0.01    52.50     9.24   -25.67     0.02     0.06     1.16     0.20P   19.19R    3.48  
Blackburn       12   15   +3      -2.33    32.06     1.68    64.82     9.20     8.02     0.33     1.27    14.39     4.28P    1.32R    0.10  
Ipswich         12   15   +2      -0.50    46.60     3.49    59.76     9.21    -0.78     0.10     0.39     5.98     1.44P    4.18R    0.42  
Wigan           10   14   +3      -2.79    26.66    -1.67    73.79    10.19    19.17     5.25    12.01    46.91    22.23P    0.23R    0.01  
Huddersfield    12   14   +2      -0.98    42.84     4.05    55.94     8.96    -4.91     0.01     0.09     2.45     0.49P    8.75R    1.08  
Brighton        12   14   -1      -3.85    21.35    -3.22    64.92     9.03     5.71     0.32     1.24    13.98     4.42P    1.05R    0.08  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.58    56.18    -0.55    59.74     9.43    -6.27     0.08     0.40     5.89     1.46P    4.85R    0.61  
Middlesbrough   12   12   -2      -4.09    19.89    -1.37    55.05     9.25    -8.03     0.02     0.10     2.13     0.51P   11.54R    1.53  
Doncaster       11   12   -5       0.55    56.55     0.59    51.40     9.37   -17.72     0.00     0.04     0.86     0.18P   22.30R    4.32  
Millwall        12   12  -11      -2.06    34.19    -7.51    49.12     8.87   -26.07     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.06P   29.73R    6.11  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.36    12.04    -2.39    60.13     9.57     1.29     0.13     0.50     6.79     1.97P    4.69R    0.49  
Charlton        11   10   -5      -4.38    17.23    -3.97    56.50     9.26    -6.77     0.02     0.12     2.78     0.69P    8.56R    1.13  
Bolton          12    9   -9      -6.88     7.01    -8.22    56.81     9.33    -7.33     0.03     0.15     3.10     0.84P    8.70R    1.15  
Barnsley        12    8  -15      -3.10    25.67    -5.99    43.22     8.78   -34.20     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   56.25R   19.39  
Sheff_Wed       11    7   -6      -6.27     7.42    -3.38    47.41     9.13   -17.41     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.06P   35.67R    8.45  
Yeovil          12    6  -12      -3.88    19.37    -1.75    36.28     8.59   -38.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    82.20R   51.58  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Brentford 3 1 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   12   32  +23      10.38    98.86    15.13    88.00     9.42    37.24    13.43    35.83    93.49    50.06P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    12   31  +16       7.33    94.21     4.52    96.93     9.45    47.16    46.56    74.63    98.98    82.51P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   11   26  +14       4.55    83.70     4.27    94.57     9.52    46.16    35.07    66.65    98.28    77.72P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         12   22   +6       4.86    84.07     5.03    73.72     9.41    13.53     0.56     3.04    50.46    12.30P    0.21R    0.01  
Bradford        12   21  +11       4.87    83.29    11.45    61.62     9.50     1.48     0.06     0.24    10.81     1.79P    5.03R    0.55  
Swindon         12   20   +9      -0.93    41.71     2.12    80.61     9.22    30.06     2.87    11.88    78.68    33.00P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons         12   19   +5      -0.74    43.96    -0.02    76.17     9.45    20.93     1.16     5.42    61.91    20.25P    0.10R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    11   19   +4       3.88    79.80     4.28    66.12     9.67     2.19     0.08     0.60    21.36     3.92P    2.17R    0.15  
Walsall         12   19   +2       1.67    63.37     0.75    65.93     9.33     2.28     0.06     0.47    19.70     4.09P    1.87R    0.13  
Rotherham       12   19   +0       5.79    87.90     5.56    58.98     9.67   -11.94     0.00     0.09     6.47     0.95P   10.10R    1.39  
Brentford       12   18   +0      -0.70    44.59    -3.31    66.44     9.27     2.50     0.08     0.59    21.45     4.88P    1.52R    0.12  
Port_Vale       12   14   -4       0.44    54.88     0.80    54.57     9.57   -14.32     0.00     0.01     2.78     0.44P   19.74R    3.77  
Shrewsbury      12   12   -2      -1.95    35.02     1.83    55.88     9.09    -5.93     0.00     0.01     2.94     0.50P   14.41R    2.20  
Colchester      12   12   -6      -1.42    39.50    -1.27    50.74     8.99   -18.53     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.13P   31.58R    6.91  
Carlisle        11   12  -10      -0.15    50.22    -5.19    48.56     9.26   -30.32     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.09P   42.42R   11.96  
Crewe           12   12  -14       0.35    55.00    -5.72    46.94     8.94   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   49.26R   15.34  
Coventry        12   11   +6       1.68    63.02     1.64    63.97     9.62    15.54     0.06     0.42    16.99     4.45P    3.09R    0.34  
Oldham          11   11   -2      -2.63    29.18     0.34    51.06     9.23   -14.16     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.16P   29.89R    6.43  
Gillingham      12    9   -7      -3.83    21.78    -1.10    47.66     9.47   -19.81     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.08P   44.78R   14.03  
Sheff_Utd       12    8  -10      -9.08     2.73   -10.88    56.53     9.31    -7.21     0.00     0.02     3.66     0.87P   13.38R    2.10  
Stevenage       12    8  -11      -5.26    12.99    -6.11    46.71     8.95   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   48.69R   14.92  
Tranmere        12    8  -15      -6.00     9.92   -11.24    47.70     8.92   -25.89     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   44.94R   12.38  
Notts_County    11    7   -8      -7.36     4.88    -6.70    53.98     9.67   -10.18     0.01     0.01     2.46     0.44P   21.11R    4.14  
Bristol_City    11    6   -7      -8.81     2.69    -6.17    56.58    10.39    -3.57     0.00     0.07     5.68     1.29P   15.68R    3.12  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         12   23   +7       3.58    76.48     2.63    79.70     9.26    21.70    23.46    51.97    81.77    60.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale             12   23   +6       4.83    83.41     3.47    75.16     9.46    14.27    11.75    32.83    65.40    40.60P    0.05R    0.01  
Exeter               12   23   +5       4.25    80.38     1.59    73.24     9.41    10.35     8.17    25.49    57.47    32.96P    0.09R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd           12   22   +9       4.20    80.08     7.03    75.02     9.38    18.51    11.36    32.79    66.06    41.17P    0.04R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       12   22   +6       5.39    86.38     5.73    70.62     9.36     9.00     4.96    17.61    46.52    23.97P    0.21R    0.06  
Morecambe            12   22   +5       5.13    85.25     4.40    70.39     9.48     7.64     4.79    17.24    45.58    23.29P    0.24R    0.04  
Wycombe              12   20   +4       2.69    70.87     2.70    68.13     9.34     6.25     2.90    11.92    36.65    17.54P    0.41R    0.09  
Mansfield            12   20   +4       4.83    83.60     5.85    63.11     9.62    -1.05     1.19     5.20    19.69     7.98P    2.02R    0.61  
Southend             12   20   +4       1.82    64.54     1.38    74.21     9.29    15.17     9.45    29.16    62.59    38.29P    0.07R    0.02  
Newport_County       12   19   +4       5.25    85.90     8.33    55.53     9.31   -11.63     0.18     1.02     5.71     1.76P    9.48R    3.28  
AFC_Wimbledon        12   18   +1       3.57    77.25     4.07    58.25     9.16    -8.67     0.20     1.53     8.27     2.72P    5.48R    1.67  
Burton_Albion        12   18   +0       2.67    70.66     1.84    65.23     9.54     0.55     1.49     6.92    25.90    10.85P    1.33R    0.36  
Scunthorpe           11   17   +1      -1.25    39.80    -3.69    71.42     9.95    10.57     6.91    21.65    50.51    30.13P    0.29R    0.07  
Dag_&_Red            12   17   +0       0.87    57.63     0.50    59.62     9.17    -5.99     0.38     2.10    10.54     3.79P    3.94R    1.12  
Portsmouth           12   16   +0      -4.27    20.14    -5.71    73.66     9.86    16.90    10.07    29.15    60.17    39.24P    0.18R    0.04  
Hartlepool           12   15   +0      -3.21    26.33    -2.59    65.97     9.74     6.62     2.12     9.02    30.10    15.01P    1.02R    0.29  
Cheltenham           12   12   -9      -3.38    24.99    -7.33    56.54     9.31   -12.16     0.13     0.92     6.03     2.03P    8.21R    2.93  
York                 11   11   -4      -1.89    34.91    -0.90    50.64     9.15   -15.96     0.02     0.23     1.77     0.52P   21.54R    9.26  
Plymouth             12   11   -7      -2.78    28.32    -3.57    52.21     8.88   -13.69     0.02     0.22     1.99     0.61P   16.02R    6.23  
Bristol_Rovers       12   10   -6      -4.70    16.57    -3.48    50.67     9.20   -15.11     0.03     0.21     1.76     0.53P   21.76R    9.34  
Torquay              12   10   -8      -5.35    13.37    -6.36    52.02     9.14   -14.78     0.03     0.25     2.28     0.68P   17.44R    7.26  
Bury                 12    9   -3      -7.99     4.90    -3.78    59.00     9.78     2.06     0.36     2.35    11.38     5.04P    5.39R    1.88  
Northampton          12    9   -7      -6.46     8.79    -5.66    51.11     9.08   -13.60     0.02     0.21     1.80     0.54P   19.47R    8.45  
Accrington_Stanley   12    4  -12      -8.60     2.07    -6.44    40.35     8.77   -26.96     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   65.34R   46.98  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 October 2013, Aldershot 2 3 Alfreton_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    16   38  +19      11.51    98.41    12.19    87.08     8.15    31.27    39.80    92.19    51.95P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    16   32  +11       2.60    67.48    -0.75    83.20     8.13    26.90    22.14    82.87    39.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton            16   30  +14       2.44    66.72     4.95    82.56     8.26    31.81    20.42    81.44    37.30P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   16   28   +9       4.96    80.97     7.22    69.32     8.27     9.04     1.10    22.81     4.80P    0.23R    0.00  
Grimsby          16   27   +7      -0.17    48.48    -0.87    76.98     8.11    20.70     6.35    58.18    20.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury        16   27   +3       6.78    88.40     5.57    64.88     8.67    -1.90     0.37    10.87     2.02P    1.49R    0.01  
Nuneaton         16   26   +0       6.08    86.28     3.19    63.71     8.10    -5.37     0.17     7.33     1.15P    1.65R    0.02  
Barnet           16   25   +7      -3.12    29.10    -2.70    76.62     8.45    23.38     7.29    57.31    22.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Welling          16   25   +4       4.86    79.47     7.02    64.87     8.80     1.41     0.42    11.57     2.22P    1.70R    0.01  
Gateshead        16   25   +4       2.40    66.60     3.05    66.41     8.26     4.45     0.41    13.66     2.70P    0.65R    0.00  
Halifax          16   25   +3       4.63    78.84     6.12    63.11     8.98    -2.49     0.31     8.73     1.62P    2.76R    0.05  
Alfreton_Town    16   25   -1       5.33    82.80     3.17    64.14     8.33    -5.15     0.22     8.48     1.36P    1.60R    0.01  
Lincoln_City     16   22   +1       0.94    57.47     2.30    62.47     8.19     0.14     0.12     6.07     1.15P    2.10R    0.02  
Wrexham          16   19   -2      -7.36     8.98    -9.01    66.78     8.27     8.05     0.46    15.01     4.51P    0.58R    0.00  
Macclesfield     16   19   -2      -3.29    27.99    -2.45    59.24     8.22    -3.27     0.05     2.79     0.55P    5.02R    0.13  
Forest_Green     16   18   +0      -5.29    17.44    -2.20    62.03     8.36     4.32     0.11     5.89     1.27P    2.71R    0.04  
Southport        16   18   -6      -0.95    44.32    -1.13    54.16     8.09   -14.77     0.01     0.65     0.10P   15.25R    0.47  
Dartford         16   18   -9      -1.76    38.05    -5.36    53.17     8.10   -18.73     0.00     0.54     0.08P   18.78R    0.60  
Hereford         16   17   -3      -6.58    12.24    -5.53    60.08     8.12     0.19     0.03     3.37     0.78P    3.96R    0.08  
Tamworth         16   16   -9      -0.76    45.73    -1.11    50.21     7.85   -20.05     0.00     0.14     0.02P   29.24R    1.57  
Woking           16   14   -9      -4.72    20.15    -3.46    47.21     7.97   -22.59     0.00     0.06     0.00P   45.04R    2.87  
Chester          16   13  -13      -1.53    40.51    -1.41    42.83     8.13   -30.22     0.00     0.01     0.00    67.30R    9.11  
Aldershot        16   12   +2      -4.53    21.45    -5.01    64.26     8.36    19.00     0.21    10.01     3.64P    1.48R    0.02  
Hyde_United      16    2  -30     -11.14     0.41   -13.77    28.52     7.54   -56.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.43R   84.97  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10