Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 18 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.53    75.03     0.18    73.35     8.58    29.49    21.86    41.00    58.09    72.53    91.56     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.96    79.84     0.86    69.23     8.61    21.86     9.98    22.92    37.71    53.86    82.03     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.07    61.85     0.94    73.47     8.36    31.77    21.55    41.47    59.12    74.16    92.53     0.00     0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.97    86.87     4.32    51.72     8.32    -2.32     0.08     0.40     1.17     2.90    11.90     2.50R    0.16  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.39    32.94     1.57    74.50     8.26    38.93    26.35    47.82    65.42    79.17    94.26     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.16    62.21    -2.27    62.59     8.57    11.40     2.28     6.75    13.77    24.05    55.19     0.11R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.36    64.84    -0.54    60.93     8.54    10.35     1.41     4.46     9.92    18.49    47.05     0.20R    0.01  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.20    89.75     3.23    39.86     7.88   -20.19     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.67    30.51R    5.54  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.92    19.98    -4.55    71.85     8.40    31.46    16.29    34.32    52.22    68.13    89.58     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.52    77.65     4.49    48.94     8.49    -4.69     0.05     0.22     0.63     1.43     7.19     5.77R    0.63  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.48    67.07    -0.99    46.29     8.44   -13.74     0.01     0.07     0.25     0.75     4.03    10.71R    1.42  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.13    52.29     2.24    50.54     8.51    -0.73     0.10     0.32     0.91     2.23     9.91     3.92R    0.38  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.36    36.18     2.24    46.24     8.28    -4.51     0.02     0.09     0.25     0.68     3.86     9.16R    1.19  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.61    59.16     1.15    40.64     8.37   -17.52     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.13     1.06    28.04R    5.54  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.70    43.60    -0.28    46.34     8.39    -7.78     0.01     0.08     0.24     0.65     3.79     9.84R    1.13  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.80    41.82    -0.64    43.01     7.90   -10.96     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.14     1.45    16.76R    2.17  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.80    31.13    -2.72    44.82     8.38   -11.16     0.00     0.05     0.17     0.50     2.94    13.10R    1.90  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.76    43.05    -1.35    40.74     8.16   -18.25     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.10     0.88    27.06R    5.02  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.16    25.05    -0.50    27.18     7.72   -38.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    85.94R   58.09  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.22     1.96    -7.39    34.56     8.09   -24.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    56.36R   16.82  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.69    95.45     9.07    81.98     9.43    26.25    17.12    33.02    76.98    43.27P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.87    97.23     3.66    85.25     9.71    24.48    27.56    45.82    84.61    56.49P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.57    83.59     0.92    79.89     9.40    19.65    11.83    24.78    69.29    36.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.57    88.52     5.96    75.44     9.52    16.40     5.40    12.87    51.78    21.38P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.38    69.33     5.29    81.30     9.53    30.56    16.42    31.72    75.54    43.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.23    75.14     1.37    72.03     9.40    10.23     2.55     6.85    36.94    13.30P    0.11R    0.00  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.83    56.63     0.39    77.56     9.76    21.36     8.75    19.14    60.71    30.97P    0.04R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.88    80.11    -0.59    51.56     9.50   -28.12     0.01     0.06     1.04     0.19P   21.82R    3.92  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.87    43.07     2.80    67.58     9.43    11.11     0.91     2.82    22.17     7.16P    0.62R    0.03  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.38    47.35     2.57    64.34     9.57     4.91     0.46     1.52    13.90     4.04P    1.62R    0.11  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.61    56.20     4.11    61.43     9.43     0.58     0.17     0.67     8.28     2.06P    2.96R    0.23  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.64    34.72    -1.06    76.15    10.51    21.96     8.00    17.41    55.07    28.72P    0.14R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.25    48.50     4.08    57.14     9.12    -4.10     0.03     0.17     3.18     0.65P    6.67R    0.73  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.47    55.47    -0.75    59.55     9.30    -6.64     0.08     0.33     5.27     1.22P    4.56R    0.44  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.27    23.90    -2.92    65.96     9.31     6.70     0.47     1.75    16.81     5.64P    0.90R    0.07  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.87    26.90    -0.66    57.18     9.45    -5.65     0.05     0.18     3.62     0.87P    7.48R    0.82  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.88    59.51     1.88    53.19     9.66   -13.78     0.02     0.08     1.53     0.35P   16.43R    2.57  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.04    33.69    -7.94    48.78     8.91   -26.86     0.00     0.02     0.36     0.07P   29.62R    5.63  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.41    11.87    -2.51    60.19     9.61     1.43     0.10     0.47     6.75     1.95P    4.33R    0.42  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.21     8.07    -7.77    57.97     9.58    -6.19     0.06     0.24     4.10     1.15P    7.00R    0.86  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.20     7.19    -5.20    53.85     9.40    -9.35     0.01     0.05     1.69     0.37P   13.57R    1.98  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.20     6.51    -3.82    46.98     9.32   -18.75     0.00     0.02     0.32     0.06P   36.50R    8.25  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.86    18.45    -1.98    35.79     8.82   -40.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.20R   50.04  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.64    13.29    -6.92    41.18     8.95   -35.72     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   63.37R   23.89  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 18 October 2013, Swindon 2 0 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   11   29  +19       9.73    98.58    12.64    84.67     9.77    30.48     8.02    25.47    88.00    39.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough    11   28  +15       6.39    91.97     4.51    96.32     9.62    48.08    43.51    75.38    98.85    83.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.29    88.82     4.78    96.31     9.89    48.65    43.56    74.93    98.69    83.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford        11   21  +12       5.91    88.98    11.98    63.36     9.87     2.80     0.12     0.66    16.61     3.09P    4.16R    0.35  
Swindon         12   20   +9      -0.83    42.66     2.29    80.61     9.33    30.11     2.90    13.08    80.08    34.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston         11   19   +5       3.53    77.89     4.48    72.06     9.62    12.47     0.55     2.72    45.92    11.33P    0.51R    0.02  
Rotherham       11   19   +1       6.51    91.36     5.35    59.63     9.87   -12.09     0.02     0.18     8.72     1.33P   10.09R    1.29  
MK_Dons         11   16   +4      -1.76    35.18    -0.06    75.07     9.67    20.75     1.01     5.14    59.51    20.20P    0.19R    0.01  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.68    72.76     4.03    64.37     9.98     0.85     0.08     0.63    19.09     3.84P    3.71R    0.36  
Walsall         11   16   +1       0.52    54.80     0.48    64.30     9.57     1.24     0.06     0.42    17.59     3.57P    3.27R    0.28  
Brentford       11   15   -2      -1.53    37.62    -4.14    64.11     9.52    -0.49     0.08     0.42    17.13     4.02P    3.27R    0.28  
Port_Vale       11   14   -3       1.37    62.32     1.13    55.90     9.85   -13.35     0.00     0.05     4.60     0.78P   17.83R    3.05  
Shrewsbury      11   12   -1      -1.31    40.08     1.70    56.57     9.38    -6.22     0.00     0.04     4.39     0.76P   14.23R    2.11  
Colchester      11   12   -4      -0.67    45.11    -0.24    52.44     9.11   -15.82     0.00     0.01     1.56     0.23P   26.44R    5.11  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.88    59.50    -4.70    49.83     9.42   -29.86     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.10P   39.03R   10.14  
Coventry        11   10   +6       1.63    62.84     0.90    63.47     9.90    14.03     0.07     0.54    17.56     4.82P    4.18R    0.48  
Gillingham      11    9   -6      -2.79    28.14    -0.56    48.93     9.72   -18.92     0.00     0.02     1.09     0.17P   41.35R   11.78  
Crewe           11    9  -15      -1.39    39.25    -6.82    44.32     9.13   -36.88     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   61.88R   24.86  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -3.93    18.32    -0.15    49.28     9.50   -15.59     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.15P   39.14R   10.03  
Stevenage       11    8  -10      -4.31    16.69    -5.75    47.75     9.20   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.08P   46.03R   13.15  
Tranmere        11    8  -11      -5.64    10.66    -8.80    50.69     9.33   -19.27     0.00     0.01     1.19     0.21P   33.85R    7.54  
Notts_County    11    7   -8      -7.40     4.89    -6.79    54.03     9.61   -10.07     0.00     0.02     2.91     0.56P   21.59R    4.09  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.31     4.77    -4.96    59.46    10.61    -0.23     0.02     0.24    10.61     2.67P   11.28R    1.93  
Sheff_Utd       11    5  -11     -10.32     0.92   -11.31    55.19     9.45    -7.74     0.00     0.02     3.22     0.74P   17.95R    3.14  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 18 October 2013, Southend 2 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         11   23   +9       4.94    85.87     4.57    83.19     9.44    26.92    33.85    65.37    89.77    72.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       12   22   +6       5.32    86.06     5.63    70.61     9.37     8.95     4.04    16.52    47.12    22.97P    0.21R    0.04  
Oxford_Utd           11   21   +9       4.67    83.84     7.19    76.38     9.61    20.05    12.41    36.89    70.99    45.52P    0.04R    0.01  
Morecambe            11   21   +5       5.71    88.59     4.80    71.30     9.64     8.47     4.88    18.91    49.91    25.57P    0.20R    0.05  
Rochdale             11   20   +5       3.38    76.10     2.71    73.01     9.74    12.48     6.86    24.40    57.41    32.45P    0.15R    0.03  
Southend             12   20   +4       1.91    65.44     1.51    74.40     9.26    15.49     7.85    28.18    63.68    37.83P    0.06R    0.01  
Exeter               11   20   +1       3.10    74.40    -1.69    68.82     9.56     2.24     2.85    12.80    38.99    18.71P    0.48R    0.10  
Mansfield            11   19   +4       5.08    86.09     5.80    63.22     9.88    -1.71     0.97     5.31    21.17     8.43P    2.44R    0.69  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.55    44.65    -0.71    76.25    10.21    19.65    13.86    37.52    69.24    47.28P    0.11R    0.02  
Wycombe              11   17   +3       1.28    60.93     2.06    65.88     9.66     4.25     1.63     7.94    29.35    12.63P    1.22R    0.35  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   17   +1       3.75    79.36     3.80    57.81     9.30   -10.21     0.19     1.34     8.11     2.50P    6.48R    2.04  
Newport_County       11   16   +1       4.38    83.34     6.56    51.81     9.45   -18.21     0.05     0.36     2.84     0.76P   20.01R    8.04  
Dag_&_Red            11   16   +0       1.18    60.56     0.40    59.85     9.39    -6.24     0.39     2.26    11.67     4.09P    4.16R    1.29  
Burton_Albion        11   15   -2       1.05    59.67    -0.11    61.90     9.63    -4.27     0.62     3.61    16.79     6.32P    3.24R    0.93  
Portsmouth           11   13   -1      -5.55    12.92    -6.23    72.69    10.05    17.14     7.25    25.11    56.97    35.59P    0.28R    0.08  
Hartlepool           11   12   -1      -4.41    17.82    -3.02    64.36     9.92     5.63     1.29     6.67    25.44    12.01P    1.88R    0.54  
Cheltenham           11   12   -8      -2.20    32.45    -6.59    58.58     9.61   -10.17     0.26     1.66     9.73     3.47P    6.13R    2.08  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.15    40.98     1.23    53.60     9.40   -10.67     0.06     0.55     3.80     1.20P   14.10R    5.50  
Plymouth             11   11   -6      -1.95    34.09    -3.19    53.53     9.09   -12.92     0.02     0.30     3.13     0.81P   13.88R    5.00  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -5      -3.62    21.97    -2.87    52.83     9.40   -13.14     0.04     0.40     3.20     0.96P   16.32R    6.54  
Bury                 11    9   -2      -7.09     6.75    -3.56    60.35    10.13     2.93     0.56     3.25    15.26     6.66P    4.85R    1.66  
Torquay              11    9   -8      -4.91    14.69    -6.17    52.65     9.44   -14.80     0.05     0.39     2.99     0.95P   17.12R    7.00  
Northampton          11    8   -7      -6.02     9.42    -5.49    51.75     9.32   -13.17     0.02     0.26     2.34     0.70P   18.83R    7.83  
Accrington_Stanley   11    3  -12      -8.52     1.67    -6.62    39.90     8.98   -28.71     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   67.80R   50.17  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 17 October 2013, Macclesfield 2 2 Southport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    15   35  +17      10.85    97.91    11.59    85.63     8.40    29.43    39.87    89.68    51.32P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    15   29   +8       2.19    65.25    -1.73    81.33     8.35    23.27    20.40    77.71    36.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton            15   27  +13       1.31    59.48     4.80    80.73     8.42    30.26    19.29    76.40    35.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        15   27   +5       7.30    90.70     6.29    66.18     8.90     0.17     1.11    15.91     3.40P    1.25R    0.02  
Nuneaton         15   26   +3       6.96    89.84     5.31    66.42     8.37    -0.01     0.67    14.97     2.79P    0.89R    0.00  
Welling          15   25   +7       5.05    80.95     8.07    67.90     9.08     7.26     1.59    22.05     5.26P    0.90R    0.01  
Braintree_Town   15   25   +6       4.49    79.70     5.97    67.49     8.43     5.77     1.05    18.75     4.05P    0.63R    0.00  
Grimsby          15   24   +5      -0.84    43.69    -1.40    75.23     8.36    18.42     6.38    51.97    18.89P    0.04R    0.00  
Barnet           15   22   +6      -4.48    20.75    -3.28    74.43     8.68    21.64     6.58    49.25    19.52P    0.09R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     15   22   +4       1.41    60.98     3.81    63.96     8.37     3.48     0.36     9.96     2.04P    1.77R    0.02  
Gateshead        15   22   +1       1.27    59.53     0.79    63.08     8.38    -1.08     0.25     8.24     1.65P    2.18R    0.03  
Halifax          15   22   +0       4.10    77.36     4.92    60.15     9.07    -7.84     0.23     5.71     1.01P    6.32R    0.16  
Alfreton_Town    15   22   -2       3.46    74.07     1.62    60.51     8.39    -9.39     0.13     4.59     0.76P    4.58R    0.09  
Macclesfield     16   19   -2      -3.22    28.36    -2.42    59.22     8.15    -3.25     0.08     3.17     0.68P    5.38R    0.14  
Forest_Green     15   18   +2      -4.68    19.42    -1.35    63.15     8.49     5.96     0.30     8.98     2.26P    2.32R    0.05  
Southport        16   18   -6      -0.88    44.83    -1.16    53.96     8.05   -14.94     0.01     0.73     0.14P   17.20R    0.60  
Hereford         15   17   -2      -5.29    16.75    -4.62    61.85     8.35     1.83     0.17     6.56     1.65P    3.01R    0.05  
Wrexham          15   16   -4      -7.98     6.59    -9.39    65.62     8.44     6.77     0.55    13.95     4.12P    1.22R    0.01  
Tamworth         15   16   -8       0.30    53.85    -0.81    51.27     8.08   -18.90     0.00     0.30     0.04P   27.42R    1.36  
Dartford         15   15  -10      -2.66    31.54    -5.44    52.11     8.24   -18.41     0.01     0.42     0.07P   24.50R    1.18  
Woking           15   14   -7      -4.30    21.69    -3.06    48.28     8.10   -20.99     0.00     0.10     0.02P   40.99R    2.81  
Chester          15   13  -10      -1.52    40.20    -0.77    44.63     8.41   -26.41     0.00     0.04     0.00P   60.31R    7.62  
Aldershot        15   12   +3      -2.87    30.05    -3.47    67.45     8.51    22.68     0.98    20.57     8.09P    0.75R    0.01  
Hyde_United      15    2  -29     -10.39     0.56   -14.30    29.02     7.65   -55.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.24R   85.84  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10