Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 17 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.51    75.03     0.14    73.47     8.51    29.70    21.94    41.66    58.40    73.13    91.81     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.95    79.54     0.84    69.27     8.51    21.89     9.88    22.67    37.81    54.28    82.37     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.09    61.63     1.01    73.30     8.42    31.42    20.92    40.28    58.20    73.55    92.29     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.98    86.91     4.35    51.68     8.35    -2.38     0.10     0.42     1.25     2.78    12.04     2.69R    0.19  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.41    32.79     1.55    74.62     8.34    39.12    26.89    48.33    65.64    78.90    94.24     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.14    62.21    -2.29    62.69     8.56    11.61     2.25     6.66    14.06    24.38    55.61     0.12R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.43    65.27    -0.42    60.57     8.54     9.87     1.29     4.37     9.51    17.52    45.33     0.20R    0.02  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.16    89.53     3.15    40.06     7.87   -19.80     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.79    29.40R    5.28  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.93    19.74    -4.57    71.97     8.37    31.74    16.55    34.79    52.56    68.76    89.86     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.55    77.83     4.53    48.81     8.48    -4.92     0.04     0.20     0.55     1.38     7.21     5.85R    0.63  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.50    67.25    -0.97    46.13     8.44   -14.09     0.02     0.08     0.21     0.64     3.78    11.03R    1.48  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.06    51.74     2.14    50.79     8.45    -0.34     0.07     0.31     0.96     2.28    10.62     3.53R    0.38  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.37    36.03     2.21    46.28     8.34    -4.48     0.02     0.07     0.29     0.76     4.05     9.29R    1.17  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.62    59.01     1.17    40.54     8.45   -17.61     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.16     1.07    28.67R    5.79  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.68    43.89    -0.24    46.33     8.36    -7.77     0.02     0.08     0.22     0.65     3.77     9.87R    1.04  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.76    42.08    -0.58    42.92     7.94   -11.07     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.21     1.43    17.16R    2.30  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.76    31.52    -2.69    44.63     8.32   -11.51     0.00     0.04     0.15     0.41     2.73    13.59R    1.86  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.78    42.63    -1.43    40.83     8.19   -18.10     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.13     0.88    26.74R    5.13  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.20    24.57    -0.54    27.22     7.70   -38.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    85.83R   57.90  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.20     1.91    -7.35    34.57     8.06   -24.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.12    56.01R   16.84  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.79    95.72     9.22    81.77     9.46    25.95    17.04    32.67    76.33    42.73P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.90    97.21     3.69    84.96     9.84    24.12    27.16    44.81    83.48    55.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.49    83.17     0.82    80.04     9.37    19.93    12.16    25.50    70.13    36.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.55    88.42     5.90    75.59     9.47    16.62     5.69    13.43    52.37    22.10P    0.03R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.39    69.42     5.35    81.19     9.57    30.36    16.16    31.90    74.95    43.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.25    75.22     1.42    71.98     9.42    10.17     2.62     6.97    37.11    13.58P    0.14R    0.01  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.83    56.52     0.38    77.43     9.71    21.17     8.49    18.75    59.96    30.44P    0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.78    79.38    -0.77    51.79     9.46   -27.73     0.01     0.06     1.06     0.21P   21.20R    3.58  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.84    43.17     2.87    67.41     9.48    10.83     0.93     2.74    21.87     7.07P    0.70R    0.04  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.46    46.62     2.46    64.56     9.58     5.17     0.52     1.63    14.17     4.31P    1.58R    0.11  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.60    56.10     4.06    61.44     9.51     0.57     0.17     0.73     8.45     2.22P    3.22R    0.25  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.62    34.94    -1.02    76.20    10.41    21.95     8.05    17.24    55.91    28.99P    0.10R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.17    49.47     4.24    56.89     9.19    -4.51     0.03     0.13     3.06     0.69P    7.29R    0.79  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.38    54.42    -0.87    59.93     9.33    -6.02     0.11     0.44     5.76     1.40P    4.20R    0.37  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.28    23.95    -2.93    65.97     9.35     6.71     0.55     1.89    17.04     5.68P    0.90R    0.05  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.91    26.65    -0.73    57.20     9.48    -5.61     0.06     0.23     3.58     0.87P    7.65R    0.88  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.85    59.28     1.83    53.32     9.68   -13.63     0.02     0.08     1.72     0.34P   16.15R    2.70  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.09    33.19    -8.01    48.99     9.01   -26.56     0.00     0.02     0.37     0.08P   29.46R    5.45  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.35    12.05    -2.35    60.07     9.58     1.21     0.13     0.48     6.62     1.88P    4.15R    0.38  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.23     8.04    -7.83    57.95     9.57    -6.16     0.06     0.24     4.06     1.06P    7.07R    0.73  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.13     7.62    -5.08    53.72     9.47    -9.55     0.01     0.06     1.66     0.40P   13.93R    2.07  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.24     6.32    -3.91    47.22     9.34   -18.33     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   35.39R    7.92  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.80    18.74    -1.89    35.61     8.72   -40.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   83.16R   50.87  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.65    13.27    -6.86    41.13     9.00   -35.85     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    63.60R   23.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2013, Bradford 0 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   11   29  +19       9.71    98.55    12.60    84.71     9.63    30.55     8.19    25.95    88.77    40.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    11   28  +15       6.45    92.28     4.59    96.09     9.70    47.76    43.34    75.48    98.72    83.13P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.35    89.24     4.82    96.19     9.80    48.46    43.71    75.73    98.68    83.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        11   21  +12       5.92    89.05    12.02    63.41     9.86     2.85     0.09     0.60    16.98     3.20P    4.27R    0.35  
Preston         11   19   +5       3.50    77.34     4.44    72.02     9.66    12.44     0.46     2.82    46.18    11.81P    0.45R    0.02  
Rotherham       11   19   +1       6.53    91.32     5.38    59.55     9.89   -12.18     0.03     0.19     8.67     1.35P   10.43R    1.33  
Swindon         11   17   +7      -1.84    34.18     1.21    79.27     9.60    28.54     2.62    11.34    75.76    32.11P    0.08R    0.00  
MK_Dons         11   16   +4      -1.70    35.91     0.06    75.08     9.65    20.70     1.19     5.41    60.01    20.27P    0.26R    0.02  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.70    73.31     4.05    64.31     9.94     0.81     0.09     0.54    19.21     3.79P    3.92R    0.37  
Walsall         11   16   +1       0.51    54.50     0.46    64.40     9.55     1.35     0.09     0.52    17.91     3.93P    3.28R    0.24  
Brentford       11   15   -2      -1.56    37.49    -4.19    64.21     9.53    -0.36     0.07     0.52    17.60     4.18P    3.31R    0.29  
Port_Vale       11   14   -3       1.47    63.30     1.27    55.71     9.78   -13.64     0.00     0.04     4.42     0.76P   18.47R    3.17  
Shrewsbury      11   12   -1      -1.29    40.12     1.72    56.59     9.27    -6.20     0.00     0.05     4.31     0.81P   14.30R    2.09  
Colchester      11   12   -4      -0.71    45.07    -0.29    52.47     9.12   -15.83     0.00     0.01     1.64     0.29P   26.88R    5.05  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.87    59.23    -4.69    49.91     9.46   -29.64     0.00     0.01     1.09     0.15P   38.79R   10.21  
Coventry        11   10   +6       1.70    63.39     1.02    63.15     9.90    13.60     0.06     0.50    17.42     4.68P    4.58R    0.47  
Gillingham      11    9   -6      -2.88    27.49    -0.67    49.07     9.76   -18.71     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.19P   41.17R   11.45  
Crewe           11    9  -15      -1.34    39.93    -6.72    44.16     9.14   -37.12     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   63.56R   25.51  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -3.99    18.03    -0.22    49.30     9.46   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.13P   39.52R   10.10  
Stevenage       11    8  -10      -4.30    16.93    -5.76    47.84     9.25   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.05P   46.05R   13.29  
Tranmere        11    8  -11      -5.63    10.80    -8.78    50.70     9.35   -19.24     0.00     0.01     1.22     0.24P   33.78R    7.83  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.83     5.65    -6.06    55.84     9.81    -7.46     0.01     0.05     4.57     0.99P   17.15R    2.95  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.33     4.80    -4.99    59.26    10.57    -0.57     0.03     0.22    10.54     2.66P   11.48R    2.14  
Sheff_Utd       11    5  -11     -10.30     0.96   -11.28    55.27     9.50    -7.67     0.01     0.04     3.54     0.84P   18.27R    3.14  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         11   23   +9       4.99    85.91     4.64    83.02     9.52    26.63    33.16    64.22    89.00    71.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   22   +8       6.00    89.84     6.66    72.83     9.64    12.26     6.70    23.69    56.45    30.62P    0.12R    0.03  
Oxford_Utd           11   21   +9       4.69    83.81     7.23    76.18     9.65    19.80    12.25    36.06    70.10    44.58P    0.04R    0.01  
Morecambe            11   21   +5       5.63    88.44     4.66    71.40     9.67     8.59     5.01    19.39    50.31    26.11P    0.22R    0.05  
Rochdale             11   20   +5       3.40    76.19     2.76    72.90     9.72    12.29     6.92    24.19    56.57    31.68P    0.15R    0.03  
Exeter               11   20   +1       3.17    74.99    -1.62    68.86     9.62     2.26     3.00    13.09    39.32    19.09P    0.44R    0.10  
Mansfield            11   19   +4       5.10    85.89     5.81    63.44    10.11    -1.50     1.17     5.89    21.86     8.98P    2.48R    0.75  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.53    44.75    -0.65    75.98    10.28    19.23    13.60    36.66    68.03    46.31P    0.10R    0.02  
Wycombe              11   17   +3       1.24    60.71     1.98    65.95     9.67     4.39     1.70     8.28    29.40    13.13P    1.12R    0.30  
Southend             11   17   +2       0.82    57.20     0.31    72.20     9.57    12.67     5.58    21.70    54.36    30.61P    0.19R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   17   +1       3.71    79.03     3.75    58.04     9.40    -9.83     0.21     1.51     8.66     2.72P    6.12R    1.98  
Newport_County       11   16   +1       4.32    82.89     6.46    51.95     9.54   -18.03     0.06     0.40     2.88     0.76P   19.60R    7.93  
Dag_&_Red            11   16   +0       1.24    60.77     0.49    59.77     9.43    -6.33     0.37     2.13    11.61     4.03P    4.47R    1.41  
Burton_Albion        11   15   -2       1.02    59.32    -0.16    62.10     9.68    -4.00     0.62     3.72    17.38     6.55P    3.04R    0.88  
Portsmouth           11   13   -1      -5.57    12.81    -6.26    72.75    10.21    17.27     7.41    25.36    57.40    36.16P    0.31R    0.08  
Hartlepool           11   12   -1      -4.46    17.77    -3.08    64.55     9.98     5.87     1.33     6.91    25.92    12.41P    1.81R    0.52  
Cheltenham           11   12   -8      -2.12    33.27    -6.48    58.46     9.54   -10.39     0.19     1.59     9.52     3.31P    6.19R    2.05  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.12    41.14     1.26    53.38     9.43   -10.97     0.06     0.51     3.70     1.17P   14.54R    5.73  
Plymouth             11   11   -6      -1.88    34.77    -3.08    53.29     9.09   -13.31     0.06     0.35     2.90     0.85P   14.53R    5.31  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -5      -3.60    22.51    -2.82    52.73     9.53   -13.32     0.05     0.38     3.29     0.95P   16.57R    6.89  
Bury                 11    9   -2      -7.12     6.64    -3.57    60.42    10.10     3.09     0.49     3.28    15.61     6.77P    4.72R    1.54  
Torquay              11    9   -8      -4.86    14.82    -6.11    52.64     9.48   -14.72     0.04     0.42     3.11     1.05P   17.10R    7.02  
Northampton          11    8   -7      -6.02     9.13    -5.54    51.78     9.35   -13.21     0.03     0.26     2.56     0.75P   18.53R    7.55  
Accrington_Stanley   11    3  -12      -8.50     1.62    -6.61    39.89     9.02   -28.74     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   67.60R   49.79  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 17 October 2013, Macclesfield 2 2 Southport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    15   35  +17      10.85    98.19    11.56    85.57     8.30    29.44    39.45    89.80    51.10P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    15   29   +8       2.16    65.04    -1.80    81.39     8.30    23.38    20.52    77.72    36.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton            15   27  +13       1.34    59.55     4.90    80.72     8.45    30.20    19.30    76.36    35.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        15   27   +5       7.32    90.65     6.31    66.14     8.90     0.14     0.93    15.75     3.32P    1.32R    0.01  
Nuneaton         15   26   +3       6.94    89.87     5.26    66.51     8.30     0.11     0.65    15.03     2.71P    0.81R    0.02  
Welling          15   25   +7       5.02    80.75     8.05    67.89     9.06     7.25     1.75    21.76     5.31P    0.84R    0.01  
Braintree_Town   15   25   +6       4.49    79.58     5.98    67.56     8.45     5.85     1.13    18.98     4.17P    0.68R    0.00  
Grimsby          15   24   +5      -0.83    43.69    -1.42    75.29     8.42    18.50     6.60    52.27    19.09P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet           15   22   +6      -4.42    21.02    -3.15    74.45     8.73    21.56     6.64    49.11    19.68P    0.10R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     15   22   +4       1.36    60.51     3.76    64.08     8.43     3.59     0.32    10.24     2.19P    1.71R    0.04  
Gateshead        15   22   +1       1.31    59.74     0.87    62.78     8.31    -1.47     0.25     7.60     1.47P    2.13R    0.03  
Halifax          15   22   +0       3.98    76.86     4.69    60.34     9.00    -7.47     0.20     5.68     1.02P    5.87R    0.16  
Alfreton_Town    15   22   -2       3.53    74.45     1.71    60.39     8.36    -9.58     0.12     4.56     0.73P    4.69R    0.10  
Macclesfield     16   19   -2      -3.26    28.30    -2.47    59.20     8.18    -3.26     0.06     3.31     0.67P    5.46R    0.12  
Forest_Green     15   18   +2      -4.63    19.57    -1.28    63.17     8.50     6.01     0.29     8.96     2.15P    2.34R    0.05  
Southport        16   18   -6      -0.87    44.92    -1.12    53.98     8.05   -14.96     0.01     0.73     0.11P   16.80R    0.59  
Hereford         15   17   -2      -5.26    16.81    -4.55    61.72     8.35     1.61     0.18     6.07     1.55P    3.07R    0.05  
Wrexham          15   16   -4      -7.94     6.98    -9.38    65.72     8.46     6.91     0.55    14.30     4.45P    1.10R    0.01  
Tamworth         15   16   -8       0.26    53.25    -0.88    51.36     8.14   -18.72     0.01     0.32     0.03P   27.14R    1.42  
Dartford         15   15  -10      -2.63    31.52    -5.37    51.84     8.28   -18.81     0.01     0.42     0.07P   25.26R    1.36  
Woking           15   14   -7      -4.28    21.72    -3.02    48.25     8.14   -21.04     0.00     0.15     0.01P   41.24R    2.79  
Chester          15   13  -10      -1.49    40.45    -0.71    44.51     8.36   -26.52     0.00     0.05     0.00P   60.42R    7.80  
Aldershot        15   12   +3      -2.90    30.04    -3.51    67.53     8.53    22.71     1.02    20.84     8.05P    0.80R    0.01  
Hyde_United      15    2  -29     -10.44     0.51   -14.42    29.15     7.63   -55.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.20R   85.43  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10