Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 15 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.48    75.04     0.07    73.50     8.51    29.75    22.37    41.55    58.56    72.87    91.71     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.93    79.46     0.83    69.23     8.55    21.90     9.78    22.67    37.71    53.63    82.21     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.11    62.19     1.02    73.35     8.32    31.47    20.97    40.61    58.36    73.75    92.53     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.91    86.48     4.25    51.84     8.34    -2.10     0.13     0.46     1.31     3.00    12.15     2.47R    0.14  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.44    32.40     1.53    74.64     8.23    39.17    27.11    48.66    65.81    79.08    94.44     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.17    62.22    -2.27    62.68     8.63    11.50     2.30     6.83    14.07    24.49    55.10     0.14R    0.01  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.34    64.47    -0.58    60.98     8.53    10.44     1.53     4.73    10.05    18.65    46.88     0.20R    0.01  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.13    89.43     3.13    40.02     7.86   -19.85     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.11     0.73    29.52R    5.34  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.94    19.64    -4.54    71.81     8.29    31.37    15.66    33.67    51.62    67.95    89.77     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.57    77.88     4.54    48.89     8.45    -4.80     0.04     0.18     0.57     1.44     7.16     5.72R    0.60  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.51    67.36    -0.95    46.16     8.50   -13.99     0.02     0.09     0.25     0.72     4.01    11.08R    1.57  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.12    52.49     2.23    50.52     8.47    -0.72     0.07     0.34     0.92     2.16     9.76     3.88R    0.38  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.32    36.53     2.30    46.11     8.33    -4.69     0.01     0.06     0.25     0.68     3.77     9.50R    1.29  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.60    58.97     1.15    40.68     8.37   -17.43     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.17     1.06    27.57R    5.41  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.65    44.17    -0.17    46.15     8.30    -8.08     0.01     0.07     0.19     0.61     3.59    10.14R    1.17  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.79    42.03    -0.60    42.94     7.98   -11.09     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.17     1.38    17.12R    2.22  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.79    31.17    -2.71    44.81     8.36   -11.19     0.01     0.04     0.16     0.44     2.89    13.17R    1.80  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.76    42.93    -1.37    40.65     8.13   -18.37     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.09     0.77    27.16R    5.05  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.18    24.88    -0.54    27.29     7.63   -38.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    85.93R   57.95  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.17     2.03    -7.33    34.55     8.01   -24.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09    56.41R   17.06  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.73    95.47     9.14    81.96     9.40    26.25    17.33    33.14    76.92    43.36P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.91    97.33     3.74    84.88     9.61    24.06    26.21    44.30    84.12    55.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.51    83.44     0.87    80.04     9.46    19.84    12.64    25.91    69.65    37.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.59    88.72     5.98    75.34     9.46    16.26     5.37    12.66    51.32    20.96P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.35    68.84     5.27    81.30     9.56    30.55    16.45    31.85    75.44    43.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.27    75.60     1.44    72.00     9.35    10.18     2.53     6.72    36.83    13.24P    0.16R    0.01  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.72    55.64     0.23    77.78     9.77    21.66     9.15    19.96    61.79    31.78P    0.05R    0.01  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.78    79.45    -0.78    51.78     9.47   -27.73     0.02     0.05     1.16     0.21P   21.39R    3.87  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.90    42.51     2.77    67.48     9.43    11.00     0.88     2.78    21.70     7.17P    0.69R    0.04  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.41    47.30     2.56    64.41     9.54     4.93     0.45     1.56    14.04     4.18P    1.59R    0.12  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.54    55.65     4.02    61.59     9.49     0.78     0.19     0.75     8.67     2.18P    2.92R    0.22  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.60    35.12    -0.98    76.05    10.43    21.77     7.84    16.82    54.99    28.13P    0.11R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.19    49.31     4.21    56.83     9.15    -4.64     0.05     0.19     3.05     0.69P    7.13R    0.80  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.46    55.14    -0.75    59.70     9.37    -6.41     0.12     0.39     5.55     1.34P    4.45R    0.46  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.27    23.92    -2.93    65.99     9.31     6.74     0.55     1.89    16.95     5.74P    0.89R    0.06  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.82    27.26    -0.61    57.11     9.51    -5.79     0.04     0.20     3.61     0.88P    7.90R    0.90  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.83    58.85     1.78    53.46     9.62   -13.41     0.01     0.09     1.62     0.36P   15.77R    2.58  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.09    33.21    -7.99    48.87     8.90   -26.71     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.07P   29.25R    5.47  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.34    12.03    -2.37    60.05     9.52     1.18     0.11     0.41     6.36     1.77P    4.24R    0.42  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.20     8.11    -7.77    57.87     9.51    -6.32     0.05     0.24     4.03     1.12P    6.96R    0.81  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.12     7.61    -5.06    53.73     9.47    -9.51     0.02     0.07     1.53     0.39P   14.09R    2.31  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.17     6.63    -3.80    47.09     9.37   -18.56     0.00     0.02     0.27     0.06P   36.10R    8.50  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.88    17.67    -2.10    35.95     8.76   -40.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   82.09R   49.18  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.64    13.32    -6.88    41.07     8.93   -35.92     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    64.16R   24.23  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2013, Bradford 0 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   11   29  +19       9.79    98.67    12.72    84.62     9.66    30.38     8.13    25.49    88.63    40.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    11   28  +15       6.41    92.05     4.53    96.18     9.67    47.80    43.07    75.90    98.72    83.64P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.31    89.01     4.81    96.32     9.82    48.74    44.28    75.98    98.72    83.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        11   21  +12       5.99    89.32    12.10    63.24     9.73     2.63     0.08     0.54    16.34     2.92P    4.22R    0.32  
Preston         11   19   +5       3.45    77.12     4.36    72.04     9.65    12.49     0.49     2.85    46.16    12.00P    0.47R    0.02  
Rotherham       11   19   +1       6.65    91.98     5.56    59.24     9.88   -12.70     0.03     0.17     8.41     1.29P   10.89R    1.29  
Swindon         11   17   +7      -1.78    34.71     1.34    79.14     9.57    28.36     2.45    11.10    75.32    31.87P    0.07R    0.00  
MK_Dons         11   16   +4      -1.73    35.48    -0.03    75.03     9.73    20.67     1.16     5.50    59.66    20.46P    0.20R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.66    72.93     3.99    64.39    10.00     0.91     0.08     0.59    19.59     3.90P    3.98R    0.38  
Walsall         11   16   +1       0.49    54.61     0.47    64.25     9.53     1.14     0.04     0.42    17.88     3.74P    3.25R    0.28  
Brentford       11   15   -2      -1.61    37.07    -4.26    64.34     9.50    -0.20     0.07     0.46    17.92     4.18P    3.35R    0.30  
Port_Vale       11   14   -3       1.36    62.46     1.11    56.09     9.88   -12.99     0.01     0.07     5.00     0.84P   17.55R    3.03  
Shrewsbury      11   12   -1      -1.31    39.96     1.69    56.65     9.35    -6.10     0.00     0.05     4.47     0.80P   14.18R    2.06  
Colchester      11   12   -4      -0.61    46.13    -0.12    52.25     9.22   -16.12     0.00     0.02     1.63     0.25P   28.00R    5.65  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.85    59.02    -4.74    50.02     9.48   -29.44     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.13P   38.41R   10.14  
Coventry        11   10   +6       1.67    63.19     0.96    63.36     9.86    13.90     0.06     0.54    17.81     4.76P    4.33R    0.49  
Gillingham      11    9   -6      -2.95    27.12    -0.80    49.31     9.73   -18.29     0.00     0.01     1.14     0.19P   40.12R   11.01  
Crewe           11    9  -15      -1.35    39.90    -6.74    44.19     9.17   -37.20     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   62.96R   25.36  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -3.99    17.97    -0.19    49.28     9.49   -15.76     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.17P   38.95R   10.02  
Stevenage       11    8  -10      -4.29    17.15    -5.72    47.66     9.16   -23.09     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.07P   46.90R   13.63  
Tranmere        11    8  -11      -5.65    10.73    -8.80    50.66     9.33   -19.35     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.19P   34.05R    7.56  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.81     5.84    -5.99    55.67     9.89    -7.79     0.00     0.03     4.47     0.93P   18.13R    3.14  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.35     4.76    -5.06    59.54    10.63    -0.05     0.03     0.24    10.94     2.76P   11.34R    1.98  
Sheff_Utd       11    5  -11     -10.25     1.00   -11.20    55.10     9.55    -7.93     0.00     0.04     3.40     0.87P   18.63R    3.32  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         11   23   +9       4.93    85.62     4.53    83.23     9.48    26.95    34.04    65.54    89.57    72.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   22   +8       6.05    90.12     6.73    72.63     9.69    11.91     6.49    23.37    55.74    30.51P    0.16R    0.04  
Oxford_Utd           11   21   +9       4.76    84.06     7.31    76.02     9.61    19.49    11.81    35.42    69.98    43.93P    0.04R    0.00  
Morecambe            11   21   +5       5.71    88.96     4.74    71.43     9.73     8.61     5.19    19.47    50.48    26.13P    0.23R    0.07  
Rochdale             11   20   +5       3.36    76.00     2.70    72.97     9.71    12.42     6.83    24.32    57.29    32.46P    0.15R    0.02  
Exeter               11   20   +1       3.13    74.81    -1.65    68.85     9.64     2.28     3.06    12.99    39.38    18.81P    0.51R    0.14  
Mansfield            11   19   +4       5.09    85.91     5.81    63.37     9.87    -1.55     1.03     5.51    21.61     8.59P    2.21R    0.66  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.51    44.91    -0.66    76.07    10.31    19.37    13.67    37.16    68.59    46.87P    0.10R    0.02  
Wycombe              11   17   +3       1.23    60.41     1.96    66.11     9.52     4.61     1.59     8.20    29.97    13.25P    0.99R    0.31  
Southend             11   17   +2       0.78    56.92     0.25    72.24     9.51    12.74     5.59    21.65    54.67    30.54P    0.20R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   17   +1       3.75    79.43     3.81    57.95     9.32    -9.95     0.20     1.42     8.43     2.55P    6.30R    2.03  
Newport_County       11   16   +1       4.28    82.83     6.44    51.99     9.41   -17.87     0.05     0.37     2.81     0.75P   19.41R    7.95  
Dag_&_Red            11   16   +0       1.32    61.47     0.59    59.50     9.36    -6.77     0.29     2.00    11.20     3.74P    4.48R    1.39  
Burton_Albion        11   15   -2       1.03    59.39    -0.15    62.16     9.70    -3.86     0.66     3.92    17.70     6.71P    3.08R    0.93  
Portsmouth           11   13   -1      -5.55    12.79    -6.25    72.77    10.08    17.31     7.38    25.40    57.55    36.14P    0.27R    0.08  
Hartlepool           11   12   -1      -4.29    18.61    -2.82    64.00     9.94     5.09     1.16     6.21    24.47    11.61P    2.09R    0.68  
Cheltenham           11   12   -8      -2.12    33.31    -6.50    58.53     9.55   -10.24     0.19     1.63     9.69     3.31P    6.18R    2.02  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.17    40.54     1.18    53.57     9.46   -10.71     0.06     0.56     3.88     1.15P   14.41R    5.79  
Plymouth             11   11   -6      -1.86    34.86    -3.05    53.33     8.96   -13.23     0.03     0.30     2.73     0.77P   14.35R    5.27  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -5      -3.56    22.27    -2.76    52.56     9.39   -13.53     0.05     0.38     2.98     0.91P   17.29R    7.07  
Bury                 11    9   -2      -7.16     6.40    -3.59    60.52    10.13     3.16     0.55     3.50    15.66     6.94P    4.80R    1.51  
Torquay              11    9   -8      -4.92    14.50    -6.20    52.58     9.39   -14.82     0.04     0.38     2.95     0.89P   17.21R    6.98  
Northampton          11    8   -7      -6.14     8.77    -5.70    52.02     9.36   -12.79     0.03     0.30     2.58     0.82P   18.09R    7.51  
Accrington_Stanley   11    3  -12      -8.57     1.67    -6.72    40.00     9.05   -28.59     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   67.45R   49.52  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2013, Barnet 1 1 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    15   35  +17      10.82    98.08    11.56    85.60     8.35    29.43    39.78    89.61    51.20P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    15   29   +8       2.18    64.92    -1.76    81.47     8.29    23.48    20.80    78.08    37.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton            15   27  +13       1.37    59.98     4.92    80.68     8.34    30.15    19.14    76.47    35.62P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        15   27   +5       7.24    90.50     6.17    66.31     8.88     0.36     1.01    15.96     3.37P    1.23R    0.01  
Nuneaton         15   26   +3       6.92    90.05     5.22    66.58     8.34     0.20     0.78    15.32     3.09P    0.79R    0.01  
Welling          15   25   +7       4.98    80.32     8.00    67.87     9.17     7.23     1.63    21.99     5.12P    1.01R    0.01  
Braintree_Town   15   25   +6       4.55    79.88     6.06    67.44     8.42     5.68     1.05    18.33     3.92P    0.65R    0.00  
Grimsby          15   24   +5      -0.84    43.60    -1.42    75.16     8.32    18.28     6.18    51.69    18.53P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet           15   22   +6      -4.35    21.36    -3.04    74.26     8.70    21.33     6.48    48.27    19.18P    0.09R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     15   22   +4       1.40    60.68     3.78    64.11     8.35     3.68     0.35    10.07     2.09P    1.67R    0.02  
Gateshead        15   22   +1       1.30    60.02     0.81    63.01     8.37    -1.19     0.29     8.17     1.62P    2.25R    0.01  
Halifax          15   22   +0       4.16    77.59     5.03    59.97     9.13    -8.09     0.19     5.50     1.03P    6.39R    0.19  
Alfreton_Town    15   22   -2       3.47    74.15     1.62    60.57     8.43    -9.30     0.14     4.75     0.80P    4.60R    0.12  
Forest_Green     15   18   +2      -4.66    19.61    -1.38    63.27     8.48     6.18     0.31     9.24     2.23P    2.25R    0.03  
Macclesfield     15   18   -2      -2.56    32.07    -2.01    60.48     8.43    -1.85     0.15     4.75     1.08P    4.55R    0.12  
Hereford         15   17   -2      -5.31    16.66    -4.65    61.92     8.32     1.98     0.18     6.48     1.54P    2.92R    0.07  
Southport        15   17   -6      -0.83    45.02    -1.65    53.48     8.14   -16.25     0.01     0.63     0.11P   18.86R    0.73  
Wrexham          15   16   -4      -7.94     6.69    -9.38    65.54     8.38     6.70     0.58    13.40     4.04P    1.20R    0.01  
Tamworth         15   16   -8       0.17    52.79    -0.99    51.59     8.13   -18.42     0.00     0.37     0.06P   26.12R    1.28  
Dartford         15   15  -10      -2.65    31.50    -5.41    52.04     8.27   -18.54     0.01     0.45     0.09P   24.53R    1.22  
Woking           15   14   -7      -4.24    22.09    -3.02    48.08     8.08   -21.30     0.00     0.09     0.00P   41.79R    2.87  
Chester          15   13  -10      -1.52    40.19    -0.74    44.60     8.29   -26.37     0.00     0.03     0.00P   60.01R    7.20  
Aldershot        15   12   +3      -2.84    29.97    -3.42    67.36     8.53    22.53     0.94    20.34     7.88P    0.76R    0.01  
Hyde_United      15    2  -29     -10.36     0.56   -14.29    28.92     7.61   -55.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.32R   86.09  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10