Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 14 October 2013 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Norwich 1 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           7   16   +6       2.52    75.39     0.17    73.43     8.47    29.61    22.02    41.50    58.62    73.29    92.04     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +6       2.96    79.82     0.86    69.23     8.49    21.84    10.00    22.82    37.71    54.07    82.15     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           7   14   +6       1.12    62.22     1.03    73.17     8.40    31.23    20.48    39.95    57.93    72.89    92.03     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton       7   14   +5       3.89    86.40     4.21    51.99     8.33    -1.86     0.11     0.49     1.32     3.11    12.54     2.28R    0.14  
Man_City          7   13   +9      -1.40    32.87     1.56    74.62     8.30    39.07    27.07    48.41    65.51    78.87    94.33     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   13   +1       1.14    61.80    -2.27    62.61     8.63    11.39     2.26     6.88    13.88    24.15    55.05     0.08R    0.00  
Everton           7   12   +1       1.36    64.84    -0.51    60.86     8.51    10.26     1.36     4.42     9.89    18.51    46.49     0.17R    0.01  
Hull              7   11   -1       4.11    89.39     3.10    40.13     7.89   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.68    29.12R    5.16  
Man_Utd           7   10   +1      -2.96    19.33    -4.62    71.91     8.40    31.58    16.51    34.71    52.48    68.38    89.38     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       7   10   +1       2.56    77.76     4.54    48.93     8.47    -4.75     0.02     0.18     0.56     1.41     7.36     5.76R    0.63  
Newcastle         7   10   -3       1.45    66.52    -1.02    46.30     8.45   -13.75     0.02     0.09     0.28     0.73     3.96    10.61R    1.42  
West_Brom         7    9   +1       0.05    51.24     2.12    50.75     8.57    -0.34     0.09     0.32     1.04     2.42    10.40     3.75R    0.33  
West_Ham          7    8   +2      -1.32    36.60     2.30    46.18     8.29    -4.60     0.03     0.09     0.25     0.65     3.76     9.34R    1.16  
Cardiff           7    8   -2       0.64    59.42     1.19    40.59     8.40   -17.48     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.12     1.09    28.12R    5.35  
Swansea           7    7   -3      -0.64    44.35    -0.19    46.24     8.34    -7.95     0.01     0.07     0.27     0.68     3.73     9.90R    1.07  
Stoke             7    7   -3      -0.78    42.06    -0.63    42.96     7.95   -11.05     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.19     1.41    17.08R    2.20  
Fulham            7    7   -4      -1.77    31.60    -2.68    44.60     8.28   -11.46     0.01     0.03     0.11     0.36     2.65    13.48R    1.85  
Norwich           7    7   -4      -0.72    43.16    -1.35    40.69     8.11   -18.29     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.83    27.10R    5.10  
Crystal_Palace    7    3   -8      -2.17    24.95    -0.51    27.14     7.61   -38.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    86.42R   58.60  
Sunderland        7    1  -11      -6.17     1.97    -7.32    34.44     7.99   -25.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10    56.77R   16.97  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 October 2013, Wigan 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         11   26  +14       7.70    95.60     9.09    81.89     9.41    26.16    17.19    32.83    77.14    43.12P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             10   26  +10       7.94    97.36     3.76    84.78     9.70    23.87    26.25    43.92    83.44    54.76P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester       11   23   +6       4.49    83.18     0.82    80.11     9.46    19.92    12.43    25.84    70.34    37.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   11   22   +8       5.56    88.71     5.91    75.52     9.47    16.51     5.70    13.22    52.02    21.67P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford         11   21  +11       2.33    68.95     5.25    81.36     9.60    30.70    16.49    32.26    75.58    44.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool       11   20   +4       3.24    75.19     1.42    71.95     9.39    10.12     2.51     6.76    36.88    13.49P    0.15R    0.00  
Reading         11   19   +5       0.82    56.62     0.37    77.48     9.81    21.21     8.61    19.22    60.46    30.85P    0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth     11   16   -6       3.83    79.81    -0.70    51.78     9.48   -27.70     0.01     0.05     1.14     0.21P   21.01R    3.73  
Blackburn       11   15   +4      -0.87    42.87     2.85    67.31     9.51    10.75     1.01     2.79    21.42     7.00P    0.67R    0.04  
Derby           11   15   +3      -0.43    46.92     2.55    64.50     9.57     5.05     0.45     1.60    14.16     4.24P    1.69R    0.10  
Ipswich         11   15   +3       0.59    55.90     4.08    61.49     9.49     0.65     0.20     0.67     8.52     2.17P    2.99R    0.22  
Wigan            9   14   +4      -1.59    34.85    -0.96    76.10    10.47    21.78     8.21    17.48    54.89    28.69P    0.14R    0.01  
Huddersfield    11   14   +3      -0.19    49.49     4.21    56.92     9.18    -4.44     0.06     0.18     3.13     0.72P    7.10R    0.75  
Leeds_United    11   14   -3       0.49    55.23    -0.71    59.61     9.31    -6.50     0.07     0.30     5.41     1.22P    4.57R    0.47  
Brighton        11   13   -1      -3.31    23.59    -2.97    66.04     9.30     6.77     0.50     1.77    17.27     5.74P    0.89R    0.04  
Middlesbrough   11   12   -1      -2.91    26.38    -0.74    57.41     9.56    -5.40     0.05     0.24     3.91     0.97P    7.57R    0.90  
Doncaster       10   12   -2       0.84    58.97     1.76    53.39     9.66   -13.49     0.02     0.09     1.69     0.34P   16.17R    2.66  
Millwall        11   11  -11      -2.06    33.25    -7.97    48.96     8.99   -26.57     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.05P   29.26R    5.72  
Birmingham      11   10   -2      -5.38    11.93    -2.42    60.03     9.57     1.16     0.13     0.48     6.52     1.77P    4.38R    0.49  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -6.15     8.20    -7.66    57.65     9.52    -6.66     0.06     0.22     3.77     1.00P    7.42R    0.92  
Charlton        10    7   -6      -6.12     7.57    -5.08    53.82     9.50    -9.40     0.03     0.08     1.66     0.45P   14.09R    2.28  
Sheff_Wed       10    6   -6      -6.17     6.61    -3.78    47.16     9.30   -18.50     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   35.45R    8.07  
Yeovil          11    5  -12      -3.89    17.82    -2.09    35.93     8.75   -40.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.27R   49.14  
Barnsley        11    5  -16      -4.70    13.01    -6.99    41.09     8.93   -35.85     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   64.08R   24.44  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2013, Bradford 0 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   11   29  +19       9.87    98.67    12.81    84.45     9.66    30.19     8.00    25.69    88.12    40.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough    11   28  +15       6.46    92.19     4.58    96.06     9.76    47.73    43.68    75.60    98.79    83.33P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   10   25  +14       5.34    89.17     4.85    96.10     9.82    48.31    43.78    75.57    98.71    83.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        11   21  +12       5.90    89.02    12.00    63.36     9.78     2.87     0.10     0.60    16.55     3.05P    4.19R    0.34  
Preston         11   19   +5       3.51    77.57     4.49    71.97     9.66    12.29     0.48     2.84    45.80    11.98P    0.44R    0.02  
Rotherham       11   19   +1       6.52    91.47     5.38    59.67     9.87   -11.99     0.03     0.24     8.86     1.36P    9.98R    1.29  
Swindon         11   17   +7      -1.75    35.05     1.38    79.05     9.56    28.16     2.46    11.09    74.96    31.69P    0.04R    0.00  
MK_Dons         11   16   +4      -1.82    34.68    -0.16    75.33     9.65    21.12     1.13     5.66    61.02    21.19P    0.22R    0.02  
Crawley_Town    10   16   +3       2.66    73.05     4.00    64.32     9.98     0.78     0.06     0.61    19.30     3.72P    4.06R    0.41  
Walsall         11   16   +1       0.52    54.73     0.45    64.41     9.57     1.35     0.08     0.50    18.06     3.88P    3.19R    0.27  
Brentford       11   15   -2      -1.55    37.21    -4.20    64.28     9.54    -0.32     0.07     0.47    17.71     4.02P    3.32R    0.27  
Port_Vale       11   14   -3       1.42    63.02     1.16    55.96     9.83   -13.26     0.01     0.07     4.61     0.80P   17.84R    3.07  
Shrewsbury      11   12   -1      -1.26    40.25     1.76    56.55     9.34    -6.29     0.00     0.04     4.29     0.77P   14.39R    2.07  
Colchester      11   12   -4      -0.70    45.34    -0.27    52.32     9.22   -15.98     0.00     0.02     1.59     0.24P   27.70R    5.51  
Carlisle        10   12   -9       0.84    58.71    -4.74    50.03     9.50   -29.46     0.00     0.01     1.13     0.16P   38.65R    9.97  
Coventry        11   10   +6       1.68    63.28     1.00    63.24     9.87    13.69     0.08     0.56    17.36     4.68P    4.43R    0.42  
Gillingham      11    9   -6      -2.78    28.20    -0.59    48.95     9.74   -18.85     0.00     0.01     0.99     0.14P   41.44R   11.84  
Crewe           11    9  -15      -1.36    39.48    -6.76    44.31     9.15   -36.96     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   62.61R   24.96  
Oldham          10    8   -3      -4.03    18.04    -0.24    49.24     9.53   -15.71     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.18P   39.65R   10.25  
Stevenage       11    8  -10      -4.32    16.78    -5.77    47.81     9.14   -22.85     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.05P   46.20R   13.15  
Tranmere        11    8  -11      -5.62    10.71    -8.77    50.66     9.31   -19.33     0.00     0.01     1.13     0.20P   34.10R    7.67  
Notts_County    10    7   -6      -6.78     5.83    -5.95    55.71     9.88    -7.72     0.01     0.08     4.58     0.97P   17.78R    3.16  
Bristol_City    10    6   -6      -7.42     4.45    -5.15    59.67    10.65     0.10     0.03     0.29    11.30     2.85P   11.23R    1.97  
Sheff_Utd       11    5  -11     -10.31     0.93   -11.28    55.16     9.58    -7.86     0.00     0.04     3.45     0.83P   18.54R    3.34  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 October 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         11   23   +9       4.86    85.18     4.48    83.29     9.45    27.05    33.97    65.67    89.59    72.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       11   22   +8       6.04    89.80     6.68    72.83     9.52    12.24     6.49    23.30    56.62    30.66P    0.09R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd           11   21   +9       4.70    83.92     7.22    76.12     9.61    19.66    12.03    35.76    69.76    44.19P    0.04R    0.01  
Morecambe            11   21   +5       5.66    88.60     4.68    71.54     9.62     8.77     5.11    19.55    50.82    26.31P    0.21R    0.04  
Rochdale             11   20   +5       3.39    76.45     2.77    72.75     9.71    12.06     6.54    23.59    56.35    31.29P    0.15R    0.02  
Exeter               11   20   +1       3.22    75.37    -1.50    68.76     9.65     2.09     3.14    12.77    38.96    18.61P    0.54R    0.11  
Mansfield            11   19   +4       5.04    85.59     5.75    63.49    10.00    -1.42     1.06     5.69    22.03     8.88P    2.40R    0.67  
Scunthorpe           10   17   +5      -0.53    44.66    -0.67    76.16    10.25    19.51    13.74    37.17    68.79    46.78P    0.07R    0.02  
Wycombe              11   17   +3       1.21    60.34     1.94    66.23     9.64     4.79     1.74     8.55    30.35    13.52P    1.02R    0.26  
Southend             11   17   +2       0.77    56.81     0.26    72.32     9.52    12.80     5.62    21.88    54.93    30.83P    0.13R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   17   +1       3.71    79.03     3.76    57.98     9.34    -9.90     0.19     1.45     8.61     2.68P    6.13R    1.97  
Newport_County       11   16   +1       4.25    82.73     6.35    52.18     9.48   -17.53     0.06     0.44     3.12     0.89P   18.76R    7.15  
Dag_&_Red            11   16   +0       1.18    60.44     0.44    59.86     9.50    -6.23     0.33     2.29    12.06     4.25P    4.36R    1.28  
Burton_Albion        11   15   -2       1.06    59.70    -0.10    61.94     9.65    -4.17     0.63     3.55    17.04     6.41P    3.09R    0.96  
Portsmouth           11   13   -1      -5.47    13.32    -6.09    72.50    10.15    16.86     6.97    25.02    56.19    35.47P    0.28R    0.06  
Hartlepool           11   12   -1      -4.37    18.41    -2.94    64.17     9.96     5.33     1.44     6.56    24.72    11.70P    1.83R    0.49  
Cheltenham           11   12   -8      -2.11    33.35    -6.45    58.27     9.59   -10.66     0.19     1.51     9.39     3.25P    6.53R    2.01  
York                 10   11   -1      -1.13    40.78     1.25    53.45     9.39   -10.87     0.07     0.49     3.66     1.12P   14.41R    5.64  
Plymouth             11   11   -6      -1.96    34.26    -3.22    53.55     9.09   -12.93     0.04     0.34     3.12     0.93P   13.76R    4.89  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -5      -3.57    22.56    -2.80    52.74     9.46   -13.25     0.03     0.35     3.09     0.92P   16.62R    6.74  
Bury                 11    9   -2      -7.11     6.68    -3.55    60.37    10.17     3.01     0.54     3.46    15.25     6.80P    4.80R    1.62  
Torquay              11    9   -8      -4.89    14.49    -6.14    52.50     9.44   -14.93     0.03     0.37     2.96     0.95P   17.19R    7.08  
Northampton          11    8   -7      -6.02     9.22    -5.55    51.79     9.37   -13.13     0.02     0.23     2.52     0.74P   18.60R    7.71  
Accrington_Stanley   11    3  -12      -8.44     1.68    -6.55    39.60     8.99   -29.15     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   68.97R   51.21  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 October 2013, Barnet 1 1 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cambridge_Utd    15   35  +17      10.91    98.20    11.67    85.54     8.35    29.31    39.92    89.52    51.57P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    15   29   +8       2.19    65.20    -1.77    81.34     8.39    23.29    20.64    77.36    36.44P    0.00     0.00  
Luton            15   27  +13       1.39    59.79     4.96    80.67     8.35    30.19    19.00    76.27    35.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Salisbury        15   27   +5       7.25    90.40     6.23    66.32     8.93     0.31     1.08    16.11     3.59P    1.31R    0.02  
Nuneaton         15   26   +3       7.02    90.13     5.38    66.30     8.29    -0.17     0.65    14.39     2.72P    0.86R    0.01  
Welling          15   25   +7       5.05    80.87     8.10    67.83     9.07     7.10     1.64    21.56     5.09P    0.86R    0.01  
Braintree_Town   15   25   +6       4.44    79.12     5.90    67.72     8.41     6.07     1.14    19.20     4.22P    0.59R    0.01  
Grimsby          15   24   +5      -0.88    43.22    -1.51    75.27     8.28    18.48     6.14    52.06    18.64P    0.04R    0.00  
Barnet           15   22   +6      -4.41    20.81    -3.11    74.34     8.71    21.45     6.59    48.40    19.19P    0.10R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     15   22   +4       1.31    60.12     3.62    64.27     8.42     3.95     0.44    10.69     2.30P    1.56R    0.02  
Gateshead        15   22   +1       1.27    59.64     0.82    62.97     8.35    -1.23     0.27     7.85     1.61P    2.10R    0.03  
Halifax          15   22   +0       4.06    77.16     4.85    60.17     8.99    -7.78     0.16     5.45     0.95P    6.02R    0.16  
Alfreton_Town    15   22   -2       3.48    74.24     1.64    60.54     8.47    -9.33     0.14     4.78     0.87P    4.78R    0.13  
Forest_Green     15   18   +2      -4.72    19.10    -1.47    63.38     8.56     6.36     0.40     9.62     2.45P    2.22R    0.03  
Macclesfield     15   18   -2      -2.48    32.29    -1.91    60.31     8.44    -2.11     0.12     4.61     1.03P    4.49R    0.11  
Hereford         15   17   -2      -5.23    17.27    -4.57    61.75     8.38     1.66     0.19     6.39     1.63P    3.24R    0.05  
Southport        15   17   -6      -0.79    45.33    -1.58    53.46     8.14   -16.36     0.01     0.67     0.12P   18.96R    0.70  
Wrexham          15   16   -4      -7.95     6.76    -9.40    65.53     8.47     6.69     0.54    13.82     4.30P    1.23R    0.02  
Tamworth         15   16   -8       0.21    52.98    -0.93    51.49     8.11   -18.55     0.00     0.34     0.05P   26.14R    1.29  
Dartford         15   15  -10      -2.77    30.80    -5.56    52.12     8.24   -18.40     0.00     0.42     0.06P   24.04R    1.26  
Woking           15   14   -7      -4.27    22.11    -3.02    48.04     8.07   -21.34     0.00     0.12     0.02P   42.07R    2.90  
Chester          15   13  -10      -1.40    41.11    -0.60    44.52     8.34   -26.51     0.00     0.04     0.00P   60.36R    7.59  
Aldershot        15   12   +3      -2.86    29.77    -3.44    67.36     8.56    22.55     0.92    20.35     7.77P    0.85R    0.02  
Hyde_United      15    2  -29     -10.41     0.56   -14.31    29.08     7.66   -55.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.20R   85.65  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10